Bill James / Chone Offensive Projections
Every year for my fantasy baseball draft I do a bit of spreadsheeting with Bill James projections and CHONE projections to get general idea of how the fantasy stars will do next year. After ryan c posted his abbreviated list of Bill James projections I thought I might share my lists as it concerns the Braves.
I like using both Bill James and CHONE because James is a bit optimistic and CHONE is a bit of a downer so an average between the two is a happy medium. Also James is an educated human guess that takes into account things other than just stats and CHONE is a purely mathematical projection, so again an average between the two is a nice medium.
So, after the jump are both James' and CHONE's projections and a third spreadsheet that averages them together. The lists include peripheral stats and old fashioned slash lines.
| Bill James | ||||||||||||
| BO | Pos | Player | PA | 2B | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 1 | CF | McLouth | 589 | 34 | 20 | 19 | 10.4 | 18.4 | 0.263 | 0.348 | 0.449 | 0.797 |
| 2 | 2B | Prado | 503 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 0.303 | 0.357 | 0.430 | 0.787 |
| 3 | 3B | Jones | 545 | 27 | 21 | 3 | 15.8 | 17.6 | 0.296 | 0.408 | 0.497 | 0.905 |
| 4 | 1B | Glaus | 615 | 27 | 28 | 2 | 14.0 | 24.8 | 0.248 | 0.356 | 0.461 | 0.817 |
| 5 | C | McCann | 576 | 41 | 24 | 4 | 9.4 | 14.9 | 0.291 | 0.362 | 0.511 | 0.873 |
| 6 | SS | Escobar | 600 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 0.302 | 0.381 | 0.432 | 0.813 |
| 7 | RF | Heyward | 601 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 0.303 | 0.371 | 0.465 | 0.836 |
| 8 | LF | Diaz | 346 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 6.1 | 20.0 | 0.305 | 0.358 | 0.471 | 0.829 |
| CHONE | ||||||||||||
| BO | Pos | Player | PA | 2B | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 1 | CF | McLouth | 488 | 26 | 17 | 16 | 10.8 | 19.2 | 0.259 | 0.350 | 0.449 | 0.799 |
| 2 | 2B | Prado | 442 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 8.0 | 13.1 | 0.301 | 0.360 | 0.442 | 0.802 |
| 3 | 3B | Jones | 531 | 25 | 20 | 3 | 13.2 | 17.4 | 0.285 | 0.380 | 0.478 | 0.858 |
| 4 | 1B | Glaus | 462 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 14.2 | 23.9 | 0.249 | 0.359 | 0.447 | 0.806 |
| 5 | C | McCann | 550 | 37 | 22 | 2 | 8.6 | 14.9 | 0.291 | 0.358 | 0.502 | 0.860 |
| 6 | SS | Escobar | 548 | 29 | 11 | 5 | 9.4 | 12.9 | 0.294 | 0.369 | 0.429 | 0.798 |
| 7 | RF | Heyward | 340 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 8.3 | 19.0 | 0.258 | 0.324 | 0.416 | 0.740 |
| 8 | LF | Diaz | 321 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 6.4 | 22.1 | 0.290 | 0.349 | 0.445 | 0.794 |
| Bill James/Chone Average | ||||||||||||
| BO | Pos | Player | PA | 2B | HR | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 1 | CF | McLouth | 539 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 10.6 | 18.8 | 0.261 | 0.349 | 0.449 | 0.798 |
| 2 | 2B | Prado | 473 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 7.8 | 12.5 | 0.302 | 0.359 | 0.436 | 0.795 |
| 3 | 3B | Jones | 538 | 26 | 21 | 3 | 14.5 | 17.5 | 0.291 | 0.394 | 0.488 | 0.882 |
| 4 | 1B | Glaus | 539 | 23 | 24 | 2 | 14.1 | 24.4 | 0.249 | 0.358 | 0.454 | 0.812 |
| 5 | C | McCann | 563 | 39 | 23 | 3 | 9.0 | 14.9 | 0.291 | 0.360 | 0.507 | 0.867 |
| 6 | SS | Escobar | 574 | 30 | 12 | 5 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 0.298 | 0.375 | 0.431 | 0.806 |
| 7 | RF | Heyward | 471 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 9.1 | 15.4 | 0.281 | 0.348 | 0.441 | 0.788 |
| 8 | LF | Diaz | 334 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 6.3 | 21.1 | 0.298 | 0.354 | 0.458 | 0.812 |
Just some quick observations:
- Neither list predicts super-stardom from any of our players but nearly every player has a near or above .800 OPS and is not a OPS black hole.
- Bill James loves Heyward. CHONE does not.
- Both projections like McCann to have a solid year and be perhaps our best hitter.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Interesting
I honestly believe Glaus could very well out perform these projections hitting in the 30 HR range.
Also with CHONE being a “downer” interesting to see it project Prado to be slightly better than James. Either way those stats arent bad for a 2B.
Very good numbers not only for 2B but for a #2 hitter.
.300+ BA and a K% less than 10% plus a fair share of doubles. Prado does all this.
by bbxxj on Jan 19, 2010 3:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
indeed.
Even if KJ puts up a .850 OPS with 25 HR’s i wouldnt be to upset because Prado just fits.
That Arizona line up will be crazy though when KJ and LaRoche heat up at the same time
by drumzalicious on Jan 19, 2010 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
9 HRs my ass
Jason Heyward for league ROY and MVP.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 19, 2010 2:55 PM EST via mobile reply actions
CHONE has Jason Heyward as a replacement level player
Excluding their TotalZone fielding metric, which I am not a fan of.
Basically, it’s insanity.
which is a joke in itself.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year.
Peyton Manning = Best Quarterback of all time.
At Arizona, our basketball team doesn't rebuild...we re-load.
by Scott Coleman on Jan 19, 2010 3:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t think it’s insanity for a rookie, no matter how hyped, to be replacement level. Look at Matt Wieters
It is interesting that both sources have Chipper over 20 HRs and with a great OBP and OPS, but not that great of an average (for him). Do they think that some of his walks will actually go over the fence or something?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 19, 2010 3:17 PM EST reply actions
A team full of .800 OPS's
much better than last year. Notably no slugger, but a bunch of guys who are projected for around 20 HR’s. Basically, an offense that can produce runs to pair up with pitching that should be effective at preventing runs. Looks good to me.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 19, 2010 3:43 PM EST reply actions
I said the same thing last year – but the difference is no FYF, no Kotchman and no FUGA. We are in a much better situation this year.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 19, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely
People don’t realize how much better your lineup is without 3 or 4 offensive black holes.
I was trying to get some projected WAR based off of CHONE projections
So I actually put together a little spreadsheet earlier, but CHONE really doesn’t look too favorably on our pitching staff. I was going to do a fanpost, but I figured out that CHONE just doesn’t work that well on the pitcher’s side.
Instead, I’ll summarize here:
The big problem is that I added up the total innings pitched for our 5 starting pitchers and the top 6 bullpen guys (Bill Wagner down to Jesse Chavez) and I only came up with 1106 IP. That equals about 123 9 inning games, meaning there’s a minimum of 39 full games (not counting extra innings) that CHONE believes will essentially be pitched by replacement level pitchers. While it’s completely possible (even likely) that we experience injuries to our pitching staff, I just can’t see any chance that none of our pitchers gets even close to 200 innings-the closest being Derek Lowe at 176.
There were a few other problems with CHONE, besides their use of the sketchy TotalZone fielding metric (I used some fan projections to fill in for UZR). Melky Cabrera was projected to simply blow away his career highs in OBP and SLG, making him a very good hitter and above average fielder, so that he became a 4+ WAR player. And the total Plate Apperances among the OFs when I included him and Heyward were way too high-obviously one of them would lose playing time (I ended up using Bill James’ projections for Heyward since CHONE thought he was a scrub).
Still, I went through the entire process and put it on a spreadsheet, then did the Phillies’ for comparison. Making some adjustments (I think I ended up using Marcel to project Cabrera’s rate stats then gave him an arbitrary # of PAs; I also gave Martin Prado about 140 games worth of PAs instead of CHONE’s highly regressed number), and what I came up with was that we’re 3.5-4 WAR (depending how their bullpen shakes out) behind the Phillies. Of course, they didn’t have the same deficiency of innings pitched that we did, so I think we’re actually much closer than that.
Wow
3.5 WAR behind Philly, I hope that isn’t true. Good thing I don’t pay near as much attention to WAR projections, too much variability, plus I don’t understand the algebra.LOL These projections are predictions and only time will tell. If the Braves actually have a OPS average over .800 with 6 players hitting 20 HR’s or better I’ll be happy as a clam and will see you all at the games, playoffs that is.
Senator, we have another old saying,"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." Fletcher
2 things
1. looks like a much better team on paper, than last year, but there isn’t a hitter on there that really strikes fear in the heart of the other team’s pitching.
2. does it make sense for the lowest obp guy (mclouth) to lead off?
1. Chipper Jones – Many pitchers have said he is the toughest out they have had to get.
2. Agreed.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 19, 2010 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with 2. I would prefer Melky to lead off and McLouth to hit in the 7 hole to take advantage of his power.
The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.
Melky
has a career OBP lower than any other player on this squad. Last year he had a .336 OBP. If the problem with McLouth leading off is his OBP, why Melky?
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 20, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not really about OBP. It’s about dropping McLouth in the order to take advantage of his power.
The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.
That's all fine and good
But I cannot agree with giving a 4th OFer more AB’s, and more AB’s in a critical situation (setting the table for the middle of the lineup).
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 21, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
i think you guys are underestimating Glaus
Not just you guys but some projections as well. I believe Glaus will be putting up somewhere between 30 and 35 HR’s. Especially being in front of McCann. Not many people are going to walk him to get to McCann.
Also i agree with McLouth not leading off
by drumzalicious on Jan 20, 2010 3:51 AM EST up reply actions
Glaus will get plenty of walks.
Getting walks is a repeatable skill, Glaus has it. It isn’t that pitchers are trying to walk Glaus, it is just that he has good strike zone judgment so when they try to hit the corners and miss he will walk.
If not McLouth, then who?...
Escobar has proven poor in that spot, otherwise you’ve got a career platoon player in Diaz and maybe Prado. I’d like Chipper but that’s not realistic. Who else ya got, not including going for a free agent.
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 20, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
I would like to give diaz a shot there. The only problem is that we would have 2 RH batters at the top of the lineup. We could put McLouth 2nd but IMO he needs to be lower.
I think we will have to wait for Schafer to develop.
by drumzalicious on Jan 20, 2010 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
If Glaus is healthy and mashing, you can bet your ass that our 3, 4, 5 will be no picnic for pitchers.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Jan 21, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
holla
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 21, 2010 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
Nice Post
I like what I see. I think if we can get everyone around that, with out pitching, we can have a real good season and retake our spot atop the East. I don’t how you all feel, but 28HRs and .250BA definitely would qualify as a very productive season from an offensive standpoint. I don’t think this would be a huge surprise to a lot of experts either. I think if he stays healthy he is expected to do something around that. The big question is his health.
Bill James lol!
Heyward-.303 avg., 17 HR, .836 OPS
Does he not realize that Heyward is 20 years old? .836 OPS…what an idiot.
The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.
“Bill James lol”
Bill James isn’t a funny name, not sure what is funny here?
“Heyward-.303 avg., 17 HR, .836 OPS”
Possible but not probable. Certainly not crazy talk like .330/.450/.550/1.000 35HR 20SB would be.
“Does he not realize that Heyward is 20 years old?”
Yes I’m sure he does
“what an idiot”
Bill James is not an idiot. Wrong sometimes but not an idiot.
Which of these is more likely?
.258/.324(!!!!!!!!!!)/.416
.303/.371/.465
I think it’s ridiculous to project Jason Heyward a .324 OBP. The man’s OBP has only increased as he’s gone up levels.
Jason Heyward
will hit .330 with a .400obp and have 40HRs, 120RBI, 20steals and will offer a friendly “get the fuck out of my way” to the rest of the National League. Take notice.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
oh yeah
and then a scrub from a big city like Kouske Fukudome will start in RF at the All Star Game. Then, with the bases loaded in the ninth, the NL will be down 2 and Jason will be at the plate. Joe Girardi will intentially walk Heyward out of pure respect and then Mariano Rivera will strike out Ryan Howard on 3 pitches.
Mark these predictions down.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by Scott Coleman on Jan 19, 2010 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
i’ll be hitting you up in mid-July for proof when this happens. I’ll be correct about something for the first time in…forever
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by Scott Coleman on Jan 20, 2010 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
i dont
want to talk about this if it comes true.
Honestly Justin Upton should be in the AS as the right fielder IMO
by drumzalicious on Jan 20, 2010 3:53 AM EST up reply actions
in 2010 or this past year’s?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 20, 2010 9:04 AM EST up reply actions
well
this past year and prob next year to because i doubt Heyward makes that big of an impression in the first half
by drumzalicious on Jan 20, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Just randomly noticed this
It doesn’t belong anywhere.
Career Leaders, BABIP (min 1000 PAs):
1) Tom McCreery
2) Ty Cobb
--
9) Matt Diaz
Of course, Shin-Soo Choo is 5th.
or he just tends to hit the ball hard when making contact
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 20, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Free swinger
I dont think the same rules apply to free swingers in BABIP. They tend to have higher BABIPs on average than the rest of the league
Is that true?
Even if it is, one of the things that I hear all of the time is that “some guys can just keep a really high BABIP, like Ichiro.” I swear, if I hear Diaz compared to Ichiro one more time, I may just have to punch a baby. DIAZ IS NOT ANYTHING LIKE ICHIRO IN ANY WAY WHATSOEVER, THAT ARGUMENT IS REALLY REALLY STUPID.
Not that this necessarily pertains to what you are trying to say, but it is something that I have heard at least once on this site and it pissed me off.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 22, 2010 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Diaz to Ichiro
I in no way shape or form compared Diaz to Ichiro. But I have heard that he gets lumped into categories with Vladdy ONLY because of his free-swinging approach, and apparently they both have high BABIPs. There were others in the article as well
That part wasn't really directed at you
the angry rant on a stupid comparison, that is. I apologize if you think I was attacking you on that.
The question of whether that is true or not was directed at you. Thank you for checking. I will make a note of that. I have heard the Diaz-Vlad comparison, and have even made it myself. I’m just not convinced that Diaz is as good as Vlad, personally. Hope he proves me wrong.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 22, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
No problem
Yeah I wouldnt say Diaz is or ever will be Vlad, thats a scary comparison. But lets just hope there is some truth the free-swingers BABIP theory. I love Diaz on the team and he works maybe harder than anyone else on there. I think if Heyward doesnt get the initial callup, then Diaz deserves the chance to play RF everyday. If he is struggling against RHP, then we have someone who can dominate RHP to platoon with him (Hinske).
Observation:
McLouth and Prado—likely the two worst hitters on the team in 2010—shouldn’t be batting first and second.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
If I was manager, this would be my lineup
Diaz -
Prado
Chipper
Glaus
BMac
Escobar/McLouth
McLouth/Escobar
Heyward
Hudson
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by Scott Coleman on Jan 20, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Mine would be:
Diaz
Chipper
Escobar
Glaus
McCann
McLouth
Prado
Heyward
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 20, 2010 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
i like that
but there’s just no way in hell Bobby would hit Chipper 2nd
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by Scott Coleman on Jan 20, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
I know. This isn’t Bobby’s lineup. It’s mine.
:)
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 20, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
THIS…IS…JUSTINCREDUBIL’S LINEUP!
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by Scott Coleman on Jan 20, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
That movie motivates me.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 20, 2010 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
While we're posting lineups
mine would be
Diaz
Heyward
Chip
Glaus
McCann
Escobar
McLouth
Prado
yea i think Heyward will be that good lol
by drumzalicious on Jan 20, 2010 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
I like that
r, l, s, r, l, r, l, r…Heyward in the 8 spot seems like a mistake, but most people put him there. I like him in the 2 or 5 spot, protected and protecting. I really like the Escobar, McLouth, Prado end of the order. Looks like lots of RBI’s from those guys. If I had to guess, and that’s all it is, I think Heyward will end up in the 7 spot between Escobar and Diaz.
Wow
so many drinking the Diaz for leadoff kool-aid. I just can’t jump on that bandwagon until he proves that he can be an effective everyday player first. I respect you all, but I think you are all crazy.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 21, 2010 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Do you feel the same way about Prado?
I am not 100% on this, but I think Diaz and Prado had about the same number of starts last season…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 21, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I do
I worry about Prado in the 2 spot, and I wonder how he will fare with a full season playing everyday. Like Diaz, he has proven that he deserves the chance. Remember, the only backup is Omar Infante, who seems to have also played well over his head last season, now that KJ is gone..
Diaz is a little different, mostly because he has done well in the past as well. But again, until he proves he deserves a spot playing everyday (and don’t get me wrong, I like him and think he deserves that chance to prove himself), I wouldn’t be comfortable hitting him in the leadoff spot.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 21, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Good deal then. I agree.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 21, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Prado in the 2 spot
Hes a good fit. He never tries to do too much, he just plays very smart situational baseball. He is a contact hitter as well. I think hes going to be a good 2 hitter. He won’t wow anyone with power, but he will manufacture runs the right way.
Not saying he won't
but all of your evidence comes from a small sample size. Prado’s lack of power is a concern if his LD% goes down. Don’t get me wrong, I hope he succeeds, I am just not convinced that he will.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 22, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
Career #s
He has not deviated too far in the majors from where he was in the minors. In now 749 career professional games, and 2,699 ABs, he has a career average of slightly over .300, OBP around .355, his power actually jumped a little this year, but its normal for a good hitter to develop power late. What Im saying is that he didn’t really do anything last year that he hasn’t done his whole career. I dont know his minor league LD% so I cant argue that point, and thats definitely true that with his style that a drop there would be a big problem. I just don’t think the sample size is as small as you think, he is very consistent.
Yes
the reason his power jumped was because of a jump in his LD%. His slugging was notable low in the minors. His LD% has climbed pretty much every year he has been in the majors. His HR/FB took a pretty notable jump in 2009 as well. Lets hope it is due to him filling out as he gets older, not a fluke.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jan 22, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions

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