Wren: "Yes ... we're better." (With Poll: Right or Wrong)
by fandave on Jan 11, 2010 8:55 AM EST
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PrintAJC Columnist Jeff Schlultz offers up an overview and analysis of the team's off-season renovation, wrapped around some quotes from our GM Frank Wren:
“We think we’re way ahead of where we were a year ago at this time.”
"Yes, I think we're better."
“We’ve got good baseball people in this organization and we feel good about this group of players. I can’t get caught up in the media perception of what we’ve done to this point. The proof’s going to be when we take the field.”
On the decision to re-sign Tim Hudson and thereby being forced to trade either Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez: "He’s clearly been a better pitcher than the other guys.”
On payroll: “We feel fortunate where we are. That’s still pretty good, especially with declining attendance. We’re not a three million attendance club, which would allow us to do more.”
On Glaus' signing in light of his medical history: ”It’s a calculated gamble."
“Roll it back a year ago – there wasn’t a whole lot of fanfare when we traded for Vazquez. Two years ago, there’s wasn’t a lot of fanfare for Jair Jurrjens. People said, ‘Jair who?’ I’m looking forward to spring training. I think fans will warm up to this team.”
Here at TC, we've rosterbated ourselves silly and put each and every one of the GM's moves under the microscope. But the overriding question is clearly the one to which Wren answers "Yes": Is the team improved?
So, it must be time for a poll.
Let's please look at it from the standpoint of the 2d half 2009 Braves, a team that played very well, putting up a record of 52-36 after June 27th, the third best in the National League, surpassed only by the Phillies (55-36) and the Rockies (53-35).
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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I voted no
2nd half Braves were 52-36, I don’t think we’re quite that strong. We are definitely improved over the 86-76 full year team. We are playoff contenders, not a playoff lock.
This^
Unfortunately there are too many question marks right now,if Glaus stays healthy is a big one, if Wagner/Saito last the season is another. Anderson being gone is a definite improvement though.Hope Chipper comes back on form, BMac will be able to see better than last year, Glaus hits like he used too and is it definite that Hayward starts? I guess I’ll have a better idea come Spring and opening day before I think about season tix again. I bought season tix last year 2 weeks into the season cause everyone looked good even Frenchy did well (for him). Bobby is still going to manage and I’m sorry, but that doesn’t excite me. Oh well,he’ll be able to add to his most ejections record anyway.
Senator, we have another old saying,"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." Fletcher
+1
too much reliance on old over the hill injury prone players like
Wagner, Saito, Chipper, Hudson and Glaus
If all of them stay injury free the whole year, and improve their performance (Lowe) the braves will win the lotto
There is a difference between them...
..Wagner is old, but not particularly injury-prone. Other than the one TJ surgery, he has been pretty much injury free his entire career.
Hudson has had a couple injury issues, but isn’t that old yet.
Glaus isn’t that old yet, but has been injury prone.
Chipper is old and injury prone but somehow still usually gets out there 130 games a year.
Saito is old, but not particularly injury-prone per se—-he hasn’t missed that much time, but has a lingering injury, so he can be considered injury-prone with that caveat.
Yes, I did vote.
I also believe in the sanctity of the voting booth.
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 11, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
THIS!!!!
dude im tellin you everything you say i agree with.
by HansonTheGod on Jan 11, 2010 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
I’d prefer 20,000 true fans to 50,000 fair-weather ones.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 12, 2010 1:57 AM EST up reply actions
Then we would just become Red Sox Nation – Atlanta. No thanks.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 12, 2010 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Are you assuming the "fair weather fans"...
mean the “true fans” go away? Can’t you have the base of one, and add the “fair weather” types on top of that when things go well?
that would be fine. But even when things were going well, the FWFs were not showing up. How many playoff games did we have where the stadium only had about 25k fans in it?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Jan 12, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
I was at one...
…back 8 or 9 years ago when I still lived in Georgia. So it was at least one.
That is published attendance figures.
Looking it up, the game was Game 1 of the 2002 NLDS vs. the Giants. (I remember that it was an afternoon game vs. the Giants in the NLDS and we lost, that is the only game that fits.) The official attendance was 41,903. While there may have been more than 25 K there, I can’t imagine the actual head count was more than 30 K; there were plenty of empty seats in the lower deck and a ton of empty seats in the upper deck.
And I think the team would disagree...
going with the sell out every time. “True fans” or “fair-weather”, I don’t think the club cares so long as they buy tickets, concessions, and merchandise.
I voted no.
I don’t think we are better than the second half Braves from last year. I also don’t think we are significantly worse, which I think is a good thing.
Do you think we are at all worse? I do not.
I think we are somewhat improved, albeit not greatly improved.
The biggest weakness – offensive production – should be significantly better. We have replaced the 1st half LaRoche with a presumptively healthy, full season Glaus, who in addition to being a RH bat in the middle of the order, should give us more pop for the season than LaRoche would have. The outfield should be better, maybe much better, both offensively and defensively. The bench, 40 man roster and ML ready position players on standby in Gwinnett are all upgraded. Starting pitching and backend of the bullpen are roughly equivalent, in my view, definitely not significantly worse. And the overall depth of the bullpen is much better.
2nd half
My no vote was primarily due to LaRoche’s 2nd half. The man was on a tear. We probably have not replaced that. I think we will be real happy with Glaus, but realistically, he will probably bat 50+ points lower than LaRoche did for the Braves. You’re absolutely right about the upgrades to the 40 man and standby players, and the bullpen. I haven’t done the math, but 52-36 translates to 95+ wins probably, I don’t see that much improvement.
But LaRoche himself wouldn’t have given us his 2d half 2009 production and while LaRoche was hot, Chipper, Nate and Garrett Anderson were cold as ice. I say Chipper and Nate have better years, and GA’s lousy production and horrid D is replaced by good to average production and plus to good D by Heyward/Cabrera/Hinske.
I guess I thought differently about the poll.
I thought the comparison to our roster at the end of last year by necessity included second-half LaRoche. I agree that we are about the same and maybe a bit better than we would be if we had simply retained everyone from the end of last year because LaRoche on that streak couldn’t be maintained, but I figured we had to give the end of 2009 Braves credit for that. I think the rotation is slightly downgraded, the bullpen is about even with a little upgrade in depth, the OF is better simply by subtracting Anderson (and assuming Heyward starts), and the bench is improved.
2010
I agree with all of that, but I’m worried about Nate’s hamstring and back. One thing not being brought up is the 6 game losing streak we ended with in 2009. That 52-36 easily could have been 56-32. I have high hopes for 2010, but if we are 52-36 after 88 games I will be a little surprized. If Jurrjens and KK get decent run support, if Hanson pitches like last year, if Hudson wins 2 out of 3 like his career record, if Lowe keeps winning despite some poor stats, if Chipper rebounds, McLouth hits homers and steals bases, Heyward plays like a ROY, etc., etc, etc. Lots of ifs, but not out of the question. I like this team, but the playoffs are not written in stone for us just yet. Niether is a 52-36 start.
I voted “I hate stupid polls” because, 1) well, someone had to, and B) We know the performance of the second half 2009 team, we have no idea how this team will perform. We could have the doomsday “Baby Braves Second Coming” that Gondee described, or get career years out of half the team. I’ve at least got to see the team shape up in Spring Training. I guess i’m just growing weary of speculating, and am ready for mitts to pop, and bats to crack.
"Matt Diaz is a baseball player."-Joe Simpson
no, the Braves are relying on too many comeback seasons
The 2nd half Braves of 2009 had Adam Laroche, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, and Javy Vasquez, so there is no question the current probable 25 man roster for 2010 is not as good as that. If a lot of things go right (Glaus is completely healthy and hits like he did several years ago, Heyward makes the opening day roster and puts together a ROY campaign, Derek Lowe and Tim Hudson each pitch like they did 2-3 years ago, Billy Wagner stays healthy and pitches like he did 2 years ago, Chipper hits like he did 2 years ago, McCann is completely over his eye problems, etc.), then maybe this roster could begin to rival the one from last year’s second half. The chance of all those things going right doesn’t seem good to me though. I predict the Braves will need to make another prospects for a bat deal in June or July to stay in the postseason hunt.
if Chipper and Glaus stay healthy, yes.
if Chipper and/or Glaus can’t stay healthy, no.
Martin Prado hitting like he did in 2009 and Jason Heyward’s play will also be a big factor as well.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
by Scott Coleman on Jan 11, 2010 10:26 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Remember, Prado hit better in 2008 than he did in 2009, albiet he did it in about half the ABs…
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Jan 11, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
Health
Chipper always has a few issues, as a 38 year old, he will have a few this year. Glaus talks like his shoulder is and has been fixed, no limitations since August. Saito worries me, he’s older and has not been surgically repaired. But, we have plenty of back-up if he goes bad. Wagner and Hudson coming off Tommy John should not be that big of a deal, most TJS vets are stronger than pre-surgury. McLouth is my biggest concern. Hamstring and back issues sometimes don’t go away. McLouth’s speed, range, power and playing time could be adversely effected if those issues come back in 2010. With his contract going to $6.5 mil in 2011, $10.5 mil in 2012 option, he’s the one we need to target getting something in return for as soon as we can. An outfield of Diaz, Heyward and Cabrera/Hinske is not in our best interest.
If McLouth goes down and it is midseason...
…I imagine we’ll see Schafer in center. Before that, we would have to cobble by with Melky as an everyday starter as we don’t have anyone else who can play center.
Wrong question?
Did you mean to ask a completely different question than what Frank Wren was asked? It’s a no brainer that we are better then we were at this point a year ago. Whether or not we are better than our second half performance is another question but our financial constraints prevented us from bringing that team back so I don’t see the point of the question if you are evaluating our off-season moves.
No.
Its a lateral move at best; downgrade in the pen, lineup isn’t different from the end of ‘09, and the rotation improvement is dependent on a reconstructed elbow and a regression from Vazquez. I love me some optimism, but I’m not seeing it with this club.
Yes
For all the reasons highlighted above. Just wanted to comment that 52-36 was really 52-30 before the Braves were eliminated and mailed the final 6 games in (all losses).
hahah rec'd
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
by Scott Coleman on Jan 11, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh, FML. I meant the one below this comment
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
"Let Jason Heyward start the season in RF, and get the hell out of his way."
by Scott Coleman on Jan 11, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
Any Braves team would be better than a Braves team with Garret Anderson in the 5-hole.
by BravesRaleigh on Jan 11, 2010 2:04 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I voted an optimistic Yes,
but I am intelligent enough to say, I really don’t know. The outcome of the season, is based on so many if’s…………
Position Players: My $.02
1 McCann: No eye issues -Better
2 Prado: Don’t have a reason, but I think he’ll be about the same offensively, but a touch better defensively as he gets to settle into the position -Better
3 Jones: Somewhere between 08 and 09 -Better
4 Escobar: Again, nothing other than gut, but I think better offensively, similar defensively -Better
5 Diaz: If he’s full-time, I think he’ll be about league-average both offensively and defensively -Worse, but not by much
6 McLouth: Dealt with injuries and a trade, he should be more like the McLouth of 08 with the bat; hopefully he’ll be McLouth of 09 with the glove -Better
7 Ross: Awesome last year, but won’t repeat -Worse
8 Infante: See Ross -Worse
9 Glaus vs. LaRoche: He won’t be as good as Aug-Sep LaRoche, but neither is LaRoche -Better
10 Cabrera vs. FUGA: Cabrera is at least league-average both offensively and defensively -A lot better
11 Hinske vs. Norton: Again, Hinske is a massive improvement; Norton was not even a spot starter, while Hinske is solid offensively and at the defensive corners -A lot better
Add it all up, and this scientific post shows that the position players have a strong chance of being better than the group who finished 2009.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
im gonna have to disagree on a few of your points, but overall, i totally agree, the roster, as it stands now, with the inclusion of the j hey kid, is significantly better than the roster that closed out this past season.
the points i disagree with are:
diaz-full time, i honestly think he’s only going to get better, id love to see him get 130+ games this year, the same for heyward and mcclouth, and let melky get about 90+ games in scattered between all 3 positions. that keeps our starters nice and fresh for the post season, and keeps our 4th OF’er fresh as well
Infante i have to give props to, i think he’s only going to get better, honestly, theres times id rather see him at second than prado
Chipper i think is going to revert back to ’08 chipper with the inclusion of glaus in the lineup, it should be nice to see chipper go to work again
and i can see brian mccann having an absolute breakout year, batting 5th so he doesnt feel the pressure to constantly produce in key at bats should do wonders for his hitting and his defense should only get better
just my .02 worth
I don’t think Diaz will post better offensive numbers because he will be getting more PA’s vs. RHP, against whom, he’s just not as good. That being said, I still think he’s an above-average hitter in 500 plate appearances, even facing more RHPs – he’s just that good against LHPs.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
I've said this before and I'll say it again
Diaz has no buisness playing every day. He and Hinske should platoon, or sign an everyday outfielder(like Johnny Damon, for the right price) and use them both as pinch hitters and occasional starters.
The only time the Mets win is in the offseason.
To say that Diaz “has no business playing every day” is a bit extreme. His last three (non-injury) seasons of OPS vs RHP:
2006: .877 (.839 total)
2007: .756 (.865 total)
2009: .749 (.878 total)
Now, OPS isn’t the best, but it’s the best I can find for platoon splits. His last two seasons he’s been league-average vs. RHP and Manny Ramirez vs. LHP. And he’s a tick above average in LF, according to UZR. In 600 PAs (I should have used this number in my previous post), he would probably be a 3-4 win player.
As for Hinske vs. RHP:
2007: .708 (.714 total)
2008: .844 (.798 total)
2009: .778 (.780 total)
I would agree that starting him against a tough RHP is a good idea, but I disagree with a strict platoon. And I also want to point out that I absolutely love the Hinske signing (unless he cost more than $1.5 milion).
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on Jan 11, 2010 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
You say "non-injury"...
like the injury impacted his play in 2008. Once he got hurt, he was off the field. When he was on it, he was healthy, and horrible. Maybe “small sample size” applies, but he certainly didn’t struggle because he was dealing with injuries.
SSS then
That’s kind of what I meant, I just wasn’t clear. I certainly wasn’t trying to cherry-pick. And anyway, I think the three seasons surrounding one bad one should carry more weight.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on Jan 12, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
You are completely wrong. Diaz has earned his chance. Blindly platooning Diaz just for the sake of doing it with a lesser hitter(Hinske) will not make the Braves better.
No way crappy GA should’ve taken at bats away from Diaz in the 2nd half.
I agree with this, and I think the Braves are doing a wise thing by holding onto money. Give him a chance, and if proves he can’t hit righties, trade for someone who can during the season, like the trade for McLouth last season. If he is hitting righties, Im sure a player will come up that can help us out at another position, or if someone gets injured.
Milky is the fourth OF...
…I am not sure who to compare him to to be an improvement. Since he is better than Garrett Anderson, I would have to say he is an improvement.
Wagner could be an improvement—-when healthy he has been a consistent stud. Saito is probably a bit of a downgrade from Gonzo at this point in his career, but we couldn’t afford to keep both Gonzo and Soriano; their salaries for this year are more than last years to the tune of 3-4 million. This and both Gonzo and Soriano had very good years last year; I think if we had brought them both back instead of Wagner and Saito, they would still be a downgrade on 2009 Soriano and Gonzo.
eh
ppl say if this guy stays healthy and that guy stays healthy we are a good team. that is actually a gamble that any team takes.
Yankees are good if johnson stays healthy
if CC’s arm doesnt fall off
if AJ can be injury free again
if JJ and Pettite can pitch as good as they did last year
if Jeter can stay healthy at his age
if A-Rod stays healthy with his hip
i mean every team has these questions so im pretty sure when people say are the Braves a good team this year they are referring to if they stay healthy and the answer is yes.
Glaus is an improvement over LaRoche and Kotchman combined offensively and projects to hit around 35 HR’s if he plays a full season. Heyward at his lowest point could out produce Frenchy and McLouth will be an upgrade over Schafer playing injured for 2 months. The combination of Melky/Diaz will be better defensively and offensively than Garrett Anderson.
I mean last season our opening lineup was
K.J
Escobar
Chip
McCann
G.A.
Frenchy
Kotchman
Schafer
The end of the season was
McLouth
Prado
Chip
McCann
G.A.
Escobar
LaRoche
Diaz/Church
What we have now
McLouth
Prado
Chip
Glaus
McCann
Escobar
Diaz/Melky
Heyward
Thats a lineup that is clearly superior and just all out deeper than the one we ended the season with.
Outside of who plays where, look at the lineup itself.
McLouth gives OBP and pop at the top of the order, a space that was miserable for us in the first half with inconsistency.
Adding Glaus gives us a respectable bat in the #4 hole. It is not so much that Glaus is the cleanup, but adding him just makes the lineup work. McCann can now bat in the much more comfortable 5 hole and drive in runs.
Escobar gets lower in the lineup and can drive in runs. Esco makes great contact and hits the ball well to all fields. Allowing him to hit with men on base is critical. It also insures that teams will have to pitch to Mac. You don’t want to walk McCann only to have an RBI machine come up behind him.
Heyward can now enter the MLB and have less pressure hitting low in the lineup. I think that will do wonders for the transition. Especially if he is hitting with men on base.
Certainly Chipper is in the twilight of his career. However, adding Hinske still gives you a legitimate sub for the third spot in the lineup. Last season, when Chipper sat, the whole lineup was turned on end as there was no logical place to hit a guy like Infante or Prado. Now, Hinske can come in, hit third, and you aren’t losing a lot of power and stability in the lineup.
this is kinda rosterbation but not
If chip goes down i would love to see Heyward hit 3rd.
McLouth
Prado
Heyward
Glaus
McCann
Esco
Diaz/Melky
Hinske
by drumzalicious on Jan 12, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
I’m just not ready to chisel Heyward into the starting lineup. I’d love to see him take the Hanson approach and spend some time in AAA.
I think they'll see how Heyward does.
I don’t think anything affects his timetable but him. If he just torches spring training, he’ll start the season in Atlanta. Otherwise, he’ll start in AAA and come up if he tears it up there. As for hitting third if Chipper goes down, that would only happen if Heyward has been up and is torching major league pitching.
of course
if he is doing terrible i wouldnt want him anywhere in the lineup
by drumzalicious on Jan 14, 2010 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
A 20 year old with a week of AAA experience is not hitting 3rd on opening day. Thats borderline insanity.
I was referring to if chip went down somewhere during the regular season and Heyward was doing good.
Kinda figured that would be obvious
by drumzalicious on Jan 15, 2010 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
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