Tim Hudson vs. Javier Vazquez: The Braves can't keep both

by gondeee on Sep 9, 2009 4:51 PM EDT Comment 45 comments

Ken Rosenthal brings to our attention something many people have been overlooking, that the 2010 option on Tim Hudson's contract is essentially a mutual option. That means both the Braves then Tim have to agree to pick it up. K-Ros says that the lack of top-flight free agent pitchers this off-season, and Hudson's status as a non-compensation free agent could lead to a big payday for Timmy.

We obviously assume that Hudson likes it in Atlanta, but to stay he would likely need a guarantee that he would be in the rotation next season, and as a 10-and-5 man he can veto any trade. That means we'd be backed into a corner and have to trade one of our other starters.

Hudson could also use this clause to extract a longer term deal from the Braves, something the team may be reluctant to do after signing Derek Lowe to long-term deal, and the uncertainty of Hudson post-TJ surgery. Remember, the Braves just got burnt by a really expensive pitcher in a really long-term contract who was consistently injured.

All of those factors may land Hudson on the free agent market. To clarify Rosenthal's statement, the ball is first in the hands of the Braves. Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, "if club exercises 2010 option, Hudson may void & forfeit buyout." Hudson would have to bail on a sure-thing $12 million if the Braves pick up his option, with the hope that he would get more on the FA market -- a likely assumption.

It will be interesting to see how the Braves handle it. They may choose, instead of renewing Hudson, to extend Javier Vazquez with a long-term deal. Javy, after all, is a year and 9 days younger, and not coming off of Tommy John surgery -- making a big committment to him may make more sense.

In many ways Tim Hudson and Javier Vazquez are the same caliber of pitcher. Over the last four years Hudson has posted a 113 ERA+, while Vazquez has posted a 112 ERA+, which is adjusted for league and ballpark. Hudson has certainly been the more consistent pitcher, but Vazquez can be more dominant, though he hasn't displayed that for any prolonged period of time in the majors.

It will be a tough choice. Ideally, one hopes the Braves can keep both pitchers... but then who else goes?

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Any chance

We can find a suitor for Kenshin. I really like KK, but if Hudson will accept the 12 mill, KK is the second weakest pitcher in the rotation aside from Lowe, who it would be exponentially harder to move via trade.

Surely with the good work KK showed this year, someone would be interested. The downside here is a good pitcher with in roads to a Japanese fanbase.

by Cracker! on Sep 9, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Surely there’s a team that would take on a 3 year $30 million contract for Lowe. Then we’d only be on the hook for $15 over 3 years and possibly keep Javy, Hudson, and Kenshin.

by Bobby Cocks on Sep 9, 2009 5:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

Where did you get $30 million. Lowe signed for 4 years $60 million. Lowe’s contract is immovable. Hanson and Jurrjens aren’t going anywhere. I like Hudson and always have and he’s from the Georgia area so he probably likes it in Atlanta. Kawakami is a solid number 5 starter and I would rather trade Vazquez. I know its tough to find a team that matches up with us that he will go to but he would net some good prospects or a quality bat and allow us to be more active in free agency.

by jack dein on Sep 9, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

judging from the next sentence and "on the hook for $15 over 3 years"...

I’d say he’s implying we move Lowe in a salary dump and offer to pay 1/3 of the deal per year to make it happen.

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 9, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly. Lowe has 3 yrs and $45 million left on his contract assuming it’s not weighted at the end of his contract. I don’t know if we’d be able to get any prospects but a salary dump could help find a bat. A rotation of Vasquez, JJ, Huddy, Hanson, and KK with Heyward in right and a big bat at first or left field and we’d be much better set I do believe.

Regardless, if we let Hudson go I would hope they use that money to go after a stick.

by Bobby Cocks on Sep 9, 2009 6:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

I have said and I will continue to say

Trade Vazquez! I say Vazquez and Schafer to the Rays for Jennings and Howell

by Jay212033 on Sep 9, 2009 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How does that help? Where would Jennings play?

We need a power bat, not Jennings.

by blitzerlover on Sep 9, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Rays traded Kazmir so that they could try to sign Crawford long term. I doubt they would take on any money.

by jack dein on Sep 9, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have said and will continue to say NO!

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Sep 9, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really want to keep Vazquez and Huddy.

Vazquez has more trade value though…..

by Sparhawk on Sep 9, 2009 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How financially inhibitive is it to keep both?...

Starters get injured, so of the 6 you have to assume you’ll always have at least 4 and that is a pretty good thing.

Like most, I’d love to get out from under the long term Lowe deal if we can get some big spender desperate enough for a starter to bite. But just how inhibitive is it to keep all 6 of Lowe, Hanson, Kawakami, Jurrjens, Hudson, and Vasquez, and if all 6 are healthy letting one relieve for a little while.

That said, add in guys like Medlen, Moylan, Campillo hopefully coming back like he was a year ago, Logan and O’Flaherty providing solid work from the left side, and that is the start to a great staff, with the expendable nature of your 4 veteran starters who at least one could hopefully bring in a solid package from elsewhere to fill other holes in the roster. I’m for keeping Hudson on that premise alone, that he will be a solid starter for next year, with the option to resign long term if needed, and allow for a strength in the premium market of starting pitching to deal from and help the club.

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 9, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keeping Vazquez is a no brainer here.

by Zeus12888 on Sep 9, 2009 5:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A team that could be a player for Vazquez is the Red Sox. The pitching depth that they had to start the season is gone. Becket and Lester are their only consistent pitchers and they have a great minor leagues.

by jack dein on Sep 9, 2009 5:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh dear lord Kevin Youkilis please!

by Bmacbandwagon on Sep 9, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could not handle that fairy-looking batting stance on a daily basis.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Sep 9, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just look away

and only watch when he makes some amazing diving stop or drives in some runs

by drumzalicious on Sep 9, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1
I call him The humping chihuahua.

by Lizziebeth on Sep 10, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or even better...

the Red Sox and Yankees are likely both wanting to fill out the back end of their rotations this winter, and are never afraid to spend money. Lowe has experience in that series, maybe try and get those two playing off each other for him and take best you can get between them (not saying ask for Austin Jackson or Casey Kelly, but use them to against each other to get better than a salary dump).

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 9, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to say.

Vazquez under performs his peripherals on a nearly yearly basis. He is also prone to homeruns. On the other side is Tim Hudson an extreme ground ball pitcher. Given the fact that our outfield defense sucks and our infield ranges from not super great to marginally okay, I’d rather take Hudson. Sure he doesn’t have the K’s, such a sexy stat!, but he’s a consistently top line starter. Besides which, we can probably get some good stuff for Vazquez.

by Perrinbar on Sep 9, 2009 6:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You gotta look to the future

Our OF defense will be very good when Heyward and Scahfer come up.

Frank Wren for GM of the Year.

by mvhsbball on Sep 9, 2009 6:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

psh

even before then. If the team would put Diaz in LF now we would have an instant upgrade. It was nice when he was catching some balls that nate would normally have to get.

by drumzalicious on Sep 9, 2009 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep Both

Trade KK, DFA KJ. KK and KJ are both good players, but in my opinion, Vazquez or Hudson > KK + KJ.

"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09

by buzzdeadwax on Sep 9, 2009 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's so out of left field....

why are we randomly DFA’ing KJ when we’re discussing starting pitching?

by BravesRaleigh on Sep 9, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, discussing ways to save salary is completely out of left field...

…In a discussion of how the Braves can save salary to keep both of their star pitchers. Maybe next time you should think about things before you type them. Or maybe you’re just that ignorant. I’ll leave that up to you to decide. Have an awesome evening!

by buzzdeadwax on Sep 9, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DFAing KJ is one of the stupidest ideas yet.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Sep 9, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Non-tender him in the offseason

That’s what I meant, genius. So you think it’s a great idea to pay him $3+ mil next year? Whether I think he’s more talented or not, he certainly hasn’t outplayed Prado, and that’s what counts.

by buzzdeadwax on Sep 10, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This season. He has not outplayed Prado THIS SEASON. He HAS outplayed him over the past several seasons. In fact, he has outplayed every NL 2B except Chase Utley and Dan Uggla over the past 2 seasons.

So yes, I think it would be a fan-damn-tastic idea to resign him for $3M.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Sep 10, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wholeheartedly agree with your first paragraph. As I alluded to, I think KJ is much more talented than Prado, I’m just not as confident as you are that he will bounce back. If he and Prado were both making $0.5 mil next season, releasing KJ would be the dumbest idea ever. But taking the salary issue into account, the Braves have to consider non-tendering KJ (if he can’t be traded).

by buzzdeadwax on Sep 11, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ERA+

Probably not the best stat to use to compare people. Not only are there many more stats that should be considered as well, but ERA+ is based upon on an already flawed stat (ERA).

A better stat might be something like FIP. Vasquez has the 4th best FIP in the majors this season. Vasquez is 4th in the majors with 9.94 K/9. He’s also 11th with 1.91 BB/9. Hudson’s been great, but it’s only been 12 innings. I think at this point, if I had to choose, I’d say Vasquez.

by blindsided789 on Sep 9, 2009 6:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Simple solution

Let Gonzo and Soriano walk. That frees up nearly $10 million dollars. Take Garret Anderson’s salary off the books and pay Heyward the league minimum. There’s $12.5 million of free money. I think we have plenty of bullpen options, I’m sure Kawakami, Medlen, Moylan, could be the 7-8-9 guys. Not to mention we have Valdez, and Kimbrel in the minors waiting, not to mention EOF who has been very good this year.

by BigG1392 on Sep 9, 2009 7:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kawakami, Medlen, and Moylan so I take it were going to lead the league in blow leads.

by jack dein on Sep 9, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Each has performed very well when given proper rest. Medlen blew those leads because he had been overworked, Peter Moylan has appeared in a very high amount of games after coming off of surgery (and hasn’t given up a home run in two years, which is more than Soriano or Gonzalez can say), and Kawakami can be effective as a long reliever or a 7th inning guy.

by BigG1392 on Sep 9, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think they can all be good relievers but the problem remains Bobby Cox will still mismanage the bullpen.

by jack dein on Sep 9, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do agree with that.

by BigG1392 on Sep 9, 2009 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh lord....

shoot me now.

by BravesRaleigh on Sep 9, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kawakami has to be the one to go. We get out from under Hudson’s contract earlier and he either re-signs for near Kawakami money or he walks and we spend the money elsewhere. Vazquez same thing, though I think he’d make about what’s he getting now. The Braves don’t have to trade one and would be stupid to do that imo, you put your best 5 out if you can afford it and the braves can

by McCann's the Man on Sep 9, 2009 8:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

All of this is probably pointless until we have a better idea of what our payroll allowance will be. It’s pretty obvious the Braves’ revenue stream has taken a turn for the worse this season and I’m pretty sure our corporate owners – Liberty Media – are struggling in this economy. Since they are temporarily (for tax reasons) stuck with what is presently a bad asset on their books, I’m not so sure they will look at the player effort and managerial strategy they got for over $100 million this year and say “hey, let’s do it again”.

by DCP916 on Sep 9, 2009 9:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I was saying they can afford to keep both on a 90 million payroll which is what i think the rough estimate is going into next year, would be nice to have the 96M payroll we do this year but 6M is a lot for a company looking to make money

by McCann's the Man on Sep 9, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I said before

We should try to dump Lowe’s salary. We would have to pay 5-7 mil of it and im sure there are plenty of teams who would love to have him at 8-10 mil.

Some others mentioned the Red Sox and the Yankees. We could also look at Houston, Arizona, Milwaukee, heck maybe even St. Louis.

I know everyone wants to get a “Big Bat” and Vazquez could be the best person to get this however i believe that if we had a rotation of

Hudson
Vazquez
J.J.
Hanson
KK

And we have the lineup we have now at the BEGINNING of the season we will do a lot better than we started off this season.

by drumzalicious on Sep 9, 2009 9:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’d love to keep Huddy and Vazquez too but I don’t see how its going to work. You definitely dont deal Hanson or JJ and seriously doubt anyone would touch Lowe’s contract unless you wanted to tack back a similar unreasonable contract. That leaves Kawakami whom I think its possible someone might bite on. The guy has pitched pretty darn well in his first year in the league (if he gets better or worse nobody knows) and is probably worth close to what he’s getting paid. I doubt you’d get much in the way of prospects in return but i do think its realistic to deal him over Huddy or Vazquez. If you do that and let Soriano or Gonzalez walk (not both) and Anderson leave then we’re still in a decent financial position. Heck you could even deal him for a right handed hitting OFer or 1B instead of the prospects, taking back a little salary and still filling a hole on the MLB club.

by chopc on Sep 10, 2009 2:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs