Keeping the Gang Together
by bbxxj on Sep 28, 2009 10:49 PM EDT
48 comments
As we are all aware our Braves have been on a little tear lately and are now an amazing 44-26 in the post Frenchy era. Wren has rebuilt this team into one that can win every single night with a legit frontline starter on the mound every night. With all of the 'rosterbation' flying around and ideas of who we should bring in getting thrown around, I thought it might be interesting to see how it would be financially possible to keep this winning core together.
I realize this may be a fruitless exercise as Wren will likely let one or both of Soriano and Gonzo leave for some picks but I wanted to crunch some numbers and see what would be needed to keep the key players from this run around. After the jump there will be a table with the current '09 salary and players with a list of players with the exact same total salary for '10. This comes with a few assumptions which I will get to later.
| 09 Braves | Change | 10 Braves | ||||
| C | McCann | 3.5 | -2 | 5.5 | McCann | C |
| 1B | LaRoche | 7.05 | -1.28 | 8.33 | LaRoche | 1B |
| 2B | Prado | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | Prado | 2B |
| SS | Escobar | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | Escobar | SS |
| 3B | Chipper | 11 | -2 | 13 | Chipper | 3B |
| LF | Anderson | 2.5 | -2 | 4.5 | McLouth | LF |
| CF | McLouth | 2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | Schafer | CF |
| RF | Diaz | 1.238 | 0.838 | 0.4 | Heyward | RF |
| TOTAL | 28.088 | -4.842 | 32.93 | TOTAL | ||
| BN | Johnson | 2.825 | 2.425 | 0.4 | Conrad | BN |
| BN | Church | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2 | Diaz | BN |
| BN | Infante | 1.85 | -0.375 | 2.225 | Infante | BN |
| BN | Ross | 1.4 | -0.2 | 1.6 | Ross | BN |
| BN | Norton | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | Hernandez | BN |
| TOTAL | 9.675 | 3.05 | 6.625 | TOTAL | ||
| SP | Vazquez | 11.5 | 1.5 | 10 | Vazquez | SP |
| SP | Jurrjens | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | Jurrjens | SP |
| SP | Lowe | 15 | 0 | 15 | Lowe | SP |
| SP | Hanson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | Hanson | SP |
| SP | Hudson | 13 | 3 | 10 | Hudson | SP |
| TOTAL | 40.3 | 4.5 | 35.8 | TOTAL | ||
| CL | Soriano | 6.1 | -0.9 | 7 | Soriano | CL |
| SU | Gonzalez | 3.45 | -1.15 | 4.6 | Gonzalez | SU |
| MR | Moylan | 0.4 | -1.6 | 2 | Moylan | MR |
| MR | Kawakami | 7.66 | 0.99 | 6.67 | Kawakami | MR |
| MR | Medlen | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | Medlen | MR |
| LY | O'Flaherty | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | O'Flaherty | LY |
| LR | Carlyle | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | Carlyle | LR |
| TOTAL | 18.81 | -2.66 | 21.47 | TOTAL | ||
| TOTAL CHANGE | ||||||
| 0.048 | ||||||
Assumptions:
1. Hudson and Vazquez as indicated by both sides will be signed to longer term deals for less yearly money. For this exercise I set them both at ~10M/2-3yrs. Vazquez could get a bit more and Hudson a bit less but it should be about 20M per for both. This saves ~4.5M over this year's salaries.
2. LaRoche will be signed to a 25M/3yr deal at ~8.33M per. John Heyman made some educated guesses on a few FA contracts and this was his for LaRoche and it seemed reasonable to me. Freeman is a fantastic prospect but isn't a freak like Heyward and could use a few years to develop. If in '12 we have two good 1B options we will deal with that 'problem' then.
3. Heyward and Schafer will be ready contribute next year. I think its safe to say Heyward will be in there at RF but if Schafer needs a month or two in AAA Diaz can handle left and Gorecki can handle the 4OF gig until Schafer is ready.
4. GA, Church and KJ will be not be offered contracts or arbi or will be traded. There are certainly valid arguments to bring back Church and KJ but in this scenario its hard to justify letting ~6M sit on the bench.
As you look at how the numbers fill out you can see that the salaries for Stare and Gonzo are raises but not by a ton. I had to keep the total numbers the same obviously but if you look at the closer market none of the big boys (NYY, BOS, NYM, CHC, LAA, LAD) are in the market for closers and there is a large crop of quality late inning arms in this FA class. Those salaries posted may not be so outrageously low. Also 2M for Diaz and Moylan in arbi may be low but its hard to know. If the FO is allowed to raise payroll by even 4-5M we could easily bring back the same/improved winning team from this year but if not it could be done but would be very tight as shown.
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I don't want Conrad on this team
WIN THE WILDCARD DAMMIT
by esadb on Sep 28, 2009 10:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Why not? He would be a good 400K second utility man.
by bbxxj on Sep 28, 2009 11:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Limited versatility, poor hitting since his early flash.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 30, 2009 4:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, ouch. I somehow didn’t catch his second half 0-18 thing. That 5th bench spot is something that is truely interchangeable. If you don’t want another INF like Conrad you could go for another 5OF like Gorecki/Blanco or a pure pinch hitter like Canizares.
When it comes down to it you have a RH 4OF who could spell all three LH OF, a true OF/INF utility man in Infante, a MI defensive replacement in Hernandez, and a backup catcher. What you choose for the fifth spot could change during different times in the season due to injuries or other situations.
I’m with you.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 29, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
and apparently, a cute butt.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 29, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
If Buster Olney's prediction rings true
And we win the WS, the extra revenue would allow us to bring pretty much everyone back for one more season. If someone knows where to look up the amount of cash the WS winning team receives, that would be beneficial.
At any rate, I’m sure it allow us to raise payroll by 6-8% next year, allowing us to keep all of our starting pitching, get a full season of McLouth and LaRoche, and hang on to at least one of Soriano/Gonzalez. Add to that Jason Heyward in right, and a partial season from Schafer (maybe a platoon with Diaz?) and we’d have to be the early NL favorites for next season.
I’m still expecting a decision would have to be made about KJ/Prado-ie, retaining only one-but we’d still have an awesome bench: Infante, Conrad, Schafer, Ross, Church, with the option of using Brandon Jones, Reid Gorecki, or Gregor Blanco until Schafer is ready. I still think Schafer could be a great OBP leadoff guy; .270/.360/.410 is not unreasonable with his speed.
Buster’s prediction is that we won’t even make the playoffs, but if we somehow DID, that we would win the NL pennant, but not the WS.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 29, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Ugh...
Those minor league OFs are just nasty.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 30, 2009 4:13 AM EDT up reply actions
schafer?
while i like where youre going, i dont think the braves can depend on schafer to be on the 2010 roster. i think church will still be with the braves next year. but i’ve been wrong plenty of times.
also, i think one of the big 6 is going to go. i wish it would be lowe, but i got a feeling it will be vazquez.
When you think you have enough pitching, you need to add more.
I would bet quite a bit that the 6 stay and if any SP get traded it will be JoJo Reyes.
how does it work?
financially speaking. unless they let laroche and one of soriano or gonzo walk, i dont see how they can squeeze in into the budget. i know you’ve worked the numbers, but i still dont see it. however, i will be pleasantly surprised if they make it work.
When your payroll is too high, you need to shed salary.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 30, 2009 4:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I also dont think we can count on Schafer for 2010. I havent given up on him but he needs some seasoning in AAA. I think the Braves will resign Gonzalez and Laroche and probably let Soriano walk. Garrett Anderson is definitely gone and KJ and Church are probably on the hot seat. I for one do not want to see Gregor Blanco or Reid Gorecki starting any games in our OF next year so I’m kinda hoping to keep Church though theres still just a little hope for Brandon Jones.
You guys are too hard on him
He was awesome for the first month of the year, when his wrist wasn’t hurting (.854 OPS in April). Sure it’s a small sample size, but assuming he’s healthy, he probably is ready to contribute. He’s a better defensive CF than McLouth, and with his speed, he could be extremely valuable by posting just a .360ish OBP (it was at .415 on April 29).
He had one great month, and one awful one while he was hurt. He’s probably somewhere in between, but closer to the .854 April OPS than the .427 he posed while hurt in May.
How is Schafer a better defensive CF than McLouth?
If you watched the games, Schafer overran so many balls that hit the wall, the batter would have a stand up triple because the ball would bounce back toward the field while Schafer would hit the wall. This happened many times and they usually scored off of it, many losses came from it. McLouth on the other hand, never lets a ball fool him, gets to everything, and has an accurate arm.
by BravesRaleigh on Sep 29, 2009 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions
both are good...
schafer had no errors in 50 games this year and mclouth only has one all year…but IMO schafer has more range (not that mclouth doesn’t have good range) and is capable of making more plays, not to mention a little better arm..mclouth just makes more sense in LF in this case
McLouth has a negative UZR, IIRC.
Schafer is an incredible CF while McLouth is pretty much just serviceable.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 29, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
i think i need a tissue.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 29, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I know people point to the total line Schafer put up this year and say he only produced in ST. Sure he raked in ST but he also raked in the first month of the season with a .273/.415/.439/.854 and a good eye with a 23/16 KK/BB ration. Like Bronn says above everyone is too hard on him. Diaz will give him all the time he needs to get healthy and when he is his OBP, speed, and fantastic D will be welcomed.
This is an interesting projection and the Braves could certainly do a lot worse than simply trying to maintain the status quo.
That said, some salary is going to have to go. One thing to consider is the Braves didn’t pay $7.05M for LaRoche/Kotchman in 2009 because the difference in their salaries was covered by the Red Sox. So, that’s another $3M which much be subtracted. Also, I think at least part of Hudson’s 2009 salary was covered by insurance and (hopefully!) none of his 2010 salary will be covered by insurance.
But, that money can be made up by letting Soriano and Gonzalez go, which is what I’m expecting. I’d expect Wren to try to trade for a young, cheap reliever or two to replace them. I certainly wouldn’t feel comfortable giving either of them a 3-year deal. They are ticking time bombs.
All that said, I’m just hoping the gang doesn’t break up for at least 5 more weeks.
from what i recall about the trade and insurance...
the trade was straight up and no salary was covered. the braves had to pay the rest.
also, insurance money is only collected if the player sits for the full year.
once again, i could be wrong.
The trade was not straight up.
The Red Sox sent over enough cash so we’re only paying Kotchman’s salary to LaRoche. They’re getting the best.
And that insurance comment is not a hard and fast rule.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 30, 2009 4:17 AM EDT up reply actions
trying to find the link...
but i thought i recalled DOB misrepresenting the trade, and that it was just a straight trade with no money sent over. i found the original link, but i havent yet found the later link (i think it was 2-3 days after the trade).
and what do you mean by a “hard and fast” rule? i dont understand the terminology. i still dont quite understand baseball insurance. can you elaborate? it would be quite helpful.
This article is from the Boston Herald on 9/19, and it mentions that the trade was LaRoche and cash for Kotchman.
Hard and fast means there’s no definitive answer as to whether insurance did or did not cover his salary (it would vary by policy), but I know that it does not absolutely require a season-ending injury to kick in.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 1, 2009 3:25 AM EDT up reply actions
thank you...
for the info. for the most part, i frequent 2 braves sites and both have a very knowledgable fan base (not the ajc). however, i must realize that one person’s quotes doesnt make it fact, even if that person is credible. both the insurance thing and the trade i have traced back to old posts on my other site i frequent, but have never found fact. i will work on my factual evidence.
You're good.
I’m a good info digger.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 2, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
i do believe schafer will be ready in 2010, and so will heyward, so right there out outfield is immediatley improved with mclouth, schafer, and heyward, with diaz as the fourth man, if schafer is not i think a BJones/Diaz platoon in left will be fine (damn sure not blanco or gorecki, and i think church will be gone) until schafer’s ready maybe a couple months in…
though i disagree with two things
1) no on brooksy, leave him in gwinett unless he’s absoulutely needed
2) and no greg norton? how do you expect to win then? come on now..
matt diaz...
once again gets screwed. he is a plus defender and, arguably our best offensive player this year. why would he become fourth outfielder again? seriously, what does this guy have to do to keep a regular job? matt diaz leads the team in ops. if he was given the full-time job at the beginning of the year, he would probably be close to a season of 20 homeruns, 90-100 runs, 90-100 rbis, and 20 stolen bases.
wrong
Yunel Escobar has been the Brave’s best and most consistent position player this season.
+1
Diaz has earned a crack at the starting job in LF next season. If he struggles, we have BJones waiting in the wings, not to mention whatever scraps we can pick up in FA or a trade once the season commences.
It sends a bad message if players are not able to earn their way into the starting lineup if they produce. Give MattyD a chance!
"Brian McCann will be guest starring as Bizarro in Smallville this fall. See, he has to put his glasses on to become Superman." -by Rhyno18 on Aug 4, 2009 5:52 PM EDT
"Brandon Jones is waiting in the wings?"
You’re kidding, right? He was barely an average player in AAA this year (in his third year at the level.) And Diaz did get his crack at starting. It was last year. And it didn’t go so hot, if you remember.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 30, 2009 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions
"You're kidding, right?"
Do I sound like I’m kidding? He may have been “barely” an average player, but I’d give him a chance over some scrub player from FA. Unless, of course, you advocate signing a legit starter to cover that position, as opposed to filling it from talent within the organization.
As far as Diaz gettiing his shot at starting next year… last year was last year, dude. Let it go. He has earned another chance at it next year, unless you’re saying that players who perform now should be judged on what they’ve done in the past. Like I said, give him the opportunity to succeed or fail in LF next year. If he flops, look to fill the position with a signing/call-up/trade during the season.
"Brian McCann will be guest starring as Bizarro in Smallville this fall. See, he has to put his glasses on to become Superman." -by Rhyno18 on Aug 4, 2009 5:52 PM EDT
I love Diaz, and I agree that he should be considered...
But the notion that he hasn’t had a chance is wrong.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 1, 2009 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Plus defender?
His -8 UZR150 this year would suggest otherwise.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 30, 2009 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions
matt diaz..
is a plus defender in left field…for his career. he might not be a plus defender in right, but he wont be playing right next year.
you've takin it far!
…bad mouthin’ matty, im surprised god didn’t strike you down immediatley..
And hell, I like the guy.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Oct 1, 2009 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions
offensively?
diaz gets the nod:
diaz: 884 ops
escobar: 821 ops
there’s not much arguing with a 63 point difference.
Diaz
NEEDS a spot on this team, he is the spark plug this team needs, he’s the only one i’ve seen this year bust his ass outta the box and hustle all game. maybe his balls to the wall attitude will rub off on some others. sure he’ll do something sometimes where your like WTF! but most of the times he’s clutch and a great clubhouse prescense. FRANK, FIND A PLACE FOR MATTY! put em on the mound for all i care, just get him on that field..
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