Do the Atlanta Braves really have a chance at the post-season this year?
by gondeee on Sep 25, 2009 9:20 AM EDT
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PrintIf you had 9 or 10 more games to play in the season and you were trying to make the playoffs, who would you rather play? The Cardinals, Brewers, and Dodgers or the Nationals, Marlins, and the Nationals again? The Nationals, mind you, are the worst team in baseball! The Cardinals and Dodgers... are each leading their respective division and have two of the three best records in the National League.
I'm so hesitant to write anything about the Braves making the playoffs, or even having a chance to make the playoffs, but they really do. Yes, they're going to need some help from the Rockies, but if you figured out the questions above, you'll realize that while they've had a pretty easy schedule so far in September, they have a very rough schedule in the last week of the season, whereas the Braves have possibly the easiest schedule in all of baseball with 7 games against the worst team in baseball.
That worst team has played us hard, but we still hold a 7-wins to 4-loss advantage over them on the season series (and all we need to do is double that win total). So, my fellow Braves fans, there is a chance, oh yes, there is a chance. Who knows, as schizophrenic as this team has been this year, perhaps this week will be a good week. On the other hand...
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All good points
but I can’t help but think about how we struggled against the Padres and Reds in the most recent series with each. (1-5, I believe.) Those were two “easy” teams that we should have benefitted from playing. The Marlins series will be tough, but with two Nats sweeps or at least 5 of 6, we do have a good chance.
by KoKo the Monkey (T-Bone) on Sep 25, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions
why the hell do people keep bringing up the Reds series??
yes, they did lose to an inferior team, but its not like we’re the only team to lose to a lesser opponent. the Rockies are 4-5 against the Padres and DBacks this month, but no one seems to bring that up.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
"Wait, bait and bash." - Jason Heyward's personal philosophy.
by Scott Coleman on Sep 25, 2009 2:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If the Padres had swept the Rockies
I might be mentioning it.
The big problem is that we still have win 7 straight against an inferior team, when we’ve shown we can’t sweep inferior teams (except for the Mets).
Yeah....
I say we just throw the white towel, give up, forfeit, don’t play those games, because we’ve already proven we can’t beat the Nationals. Oh, our record against them so far this season is 7-4? Oh, the Mets have a better record and we’ve just won 8 straight against them? Doesn’t matter, we lost 3 games to the Reds a month ago, so we’re garbage. We have shown we are literally incapable of sweeping the Washington Nationals, and to think otherwise is foolish.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Just trying not to get hopes up too much
It’s an extreme long shot, and we’ve failed to take care of business against the Nationals so far this season. Rockies have the Cards, a Brewers team that’s already shut down Gallardo, and a Dodgers team that will have nothing to play for on the last weekend.
Because it wasn't just the Reds.
It was the Padres too, not to mention crappy teams throughout the year.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 25, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
The point is....
we know we lost those games. Why keep beating a dead horse?
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
THIS.
God damn. Get over us losing to the Reds and Padres. Its not like someone bitching about it is going to change the outcome..
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
"Wait, bait and bash." - Jason Heyward's personal philosophy.
by Scott Coleman on Sep 25, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
And ignoring it makes more sense?
This team should be leading the wildcard, not needing a total disaster in the last week of the year to have a chance.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 26, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
There is a real lesson to be learned here.
And, of course, although I would never ever want to be accused of undue horn tooting, I was so damn right, here, it is worth repeating as an object lesson in being a good fan:
It ain’t over.
Yes, without question, last night was another depressing, discouraging loss and if the team is going to play like that, there will obviously be no chance to reach the playoffs.
But the facts are we had a 32-18 run from 6/28 to 8/23, followed by now having lost two in a row, and we’re 5.5 of the Rockies with 36 games left to play.
We need a multi-game winning streak, we need a very strong winning percentage to finish out the season, and we need to Rockies to cool off.
I agree there is no great cause for optimism and the odds are against us. However, I say the pervasive gloom and doom is uncalled for.
We are down. But we’re not out. It ain’t over.
by fandave on Aug 27, 2009 6:48 AM PDT
This is undue horn tooting. And its poor undue horn tooting at that! It’s not like you had a revelation, you applied common logic. I think 75% of us thought the same, we just didn’t want to jinx the team. (At least I didn’t)
Oh come on....
Give the guy some props, don’t slam him. I said it wasn’t over either. If 75% of the posters on this board thought we were still in it at all points of this season, the place wouldn’t have been such a cesspool of gloom and doom and vulgar cussing out of the team.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
those of us who frequent the game-threads were all pretty optimistic. it was the one-hit wonders of the Chop who were doing all the glooming and dooming in the fanposts and comments….generally speaking.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 25, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I just did…and saw only one post that said we were done…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 25, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
congratulations
Headlining the Campaign for the return of Ryan Langerhans! MVP 2011!
by RichmondBraves on Sep 25, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Woo!
"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"
by The Keith Lockhart Era on Sep 25, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? Blind optimism makes one a "good fan?"
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 25, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t call that blind optimism. I think it was highly qualified.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 25, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, technically, yes.
The word “fan” as used in this context, is a shortened version of the word “fanatic”. The definition of fanatic?
fa⋅nat⋅ic
/fəˈnætɪk/ Pronunciation [fuh-nat-ik]
–noun
1. a person with an extreme and uncritical enthusiasm or zeal, as in religion or politics.
So blind optimism does make you a good fan.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Should the Braves get the deficit down to 2 games with 4 or more games to play, then I might believe there’s a reason to hope. They haven’t gotten it under 3 in the second half to my memory.
wah, wah, wah
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
which, ironically is your confidence vote! I see what’s going on here….
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 25, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
At the very least
it’s nice to be relevant in late September again after a three year absence
Will - Rocky Top Talk
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Hey! A shot of NCChopper!!! Good stuffs.
(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)
"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews ~ RIP Roi
Chief! Do your anti-rain dance!!! Now, damn it! Now!!!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Sep 25, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
from those photos he took of you through your bathroom window…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 25, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's how I'm looking at it
Carpenter and Wainright are the first two starters for the Cards and we have Vazquez and Hanson going for the first two of our series. If Both we and the Cards win those first two, we’ll only be 1.5 out and that is a little less depressing. Hey, it makes me feel better.
Just think about those 2 games that we should have won against the Rockies earlier in the year. (oooohhhhhhhhhh…….)
(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)
"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews ~ RIP Roi
Chief! Do your anti-rain dance!!! Now, damn it! Now!!!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Sep 25, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
How bout the meltdown against the Phills or the walk off loss in L.A or Hou? Either way, we have a chance to make all those “what if’s” a moot point.
"My God! Good news fans, the Braves are showing signs of life for the first time in weeks. As a matter of fact, they appear to be beating the crap out of each other."
Wainwright
Finally Wainwright can do us some good.
Remember that one year JD Drew helped us get to the postseason, in exchange for all of Adam Wainwright’s affordable years?
Give us that 18-8 of Wainwright’s this year and we’d be even with the Phillies. Then maybe the money we gave to e.g. KK could have gone to Ibanez, and we’d be the ones in first place.
Yeah, because our starters have been terrible!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 26, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
They certainly haven't been cheap.
Remember when the Panthers had a good offensive line? Yeah, me too.
--Darin Gantt
by MichaelProcton on Sep 26, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
If someone could exchange the "Natinals" jerseys and put a contender's on them, we just might sweep all 7 of 'em!
(just kidding – lighthearted comment about how we tend to play down to teams we should beat and end up losing while elevating our play to the strong teams and play them hard)
Seriously though, it’s exciting just to be having this conversation after the deflating losses to CIN.
Never say never and ….
I agree :)
Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
As of right now, before any weekend play, I would say we have a 40-50% chance of making the play-offs. The Giants and Rockies started falling off the wagon, as I predicted. If the stars align correctly for us, it could happen. That would be awesome to finish the last 10 games 10-0, especially with the Fish coming up.
(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)
"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews ~ RIP Roi
Chief! Do your anti-rain dance!!! Now, damn it! Now!!!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Sep 25, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions
"lol"
and the inclement weather continues to follow the Braves around. Looks to be a Wet Weekened in Washington.
Clear skies in Atlanta right now, but the Braves are returning soon, so…..
(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)
"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews ~ RIP Roi
Chief! Do your anti-rain dance!!! Now, damn it! Now!!!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Sep 25, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Relax.
I’d call it about a 24% chance of us making it. Keep in mind that the Marlins and the Giants are right on our ass. None of that matter if we don’t win nearly EVERY day.
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
PECOTA
guesstimates 13.8%
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 25, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
unfortunately
We may be due for another, patented (at least this year anyways) Atlanta Braves letdown. This is the third or fourth time we’ve closed a considerable gap and gotten happy. Every other time the Braves have gone on a considerable losing streak only to bounce back again and raise hopes.
Braves definitely have a chance, and I’ll be rooting for them for sure. I wish it was flip-flopped and the Braves were the team ahead.
And it’s lame that we’re 12 games over .500 and we’re still 4 games back. Oh well, at least we’re not in the AL.
Headlining the Campaign for the return of Ryan Langerhans! MVP 2011!
by RichmondBraves on Sep 25, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions
This doesn't make much sense
unless you are really that confident that the Rockies will go exactly 4-5
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 25, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s to hoping we don’t lay a big fat turd this weekend…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 25, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions
Gondee
come on man please dont jinx us like this man lol. Too many times we faced bad teams and were expected to beat them and we ended up losin. Yes there is a chance but im not gonna get my hopes up i hope we can do it but its not gonna be easy. Nats are bad but they ALWAYS seem to play us hard for every out. Marlins are still in it as well and will be playin us hard as well like they usually do. Im certainly not sayin we dont have a chance but im gonna keep my fingers crossed. Hopefully we can stay hot. We might end up needin some magic from guys that have been so-so this year to get into the playoffs.
braves#1
Playoff Odds
If you check out coolstandings.com you would see that our odds are actually 12%. They take into account games remaining, opponents, etc. I’ve been watching it for a week now fluctuate between 3-5%, and last night it shot up to 12. Win a couple, and then lets talk.
odds & stats
are ok & have their place but there is the forgotten factor called the baseball gods who, with one swing of their omnipotent 36 oz bat can bring colossal end of season meltdowns (Mets) or fantastic win streaks (Rockies). Heres hoping the Braves are on their good side.
yeah
The Braves are on a winning streak because of the GREAT BASEBALL GODS.
It’s definitely not strong pitching or anything
Headlining the Campaign for the return of Ryan Langerhans! MVP 2011!
by RichmondBraves on Sep 25, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
just pointing out
that baseball is a quirky game & strange things can happen despite what stats & odds say should happen. Not trying to take away from the fact that the Braves are playing excellent ball. Lighten up.
The Cards and Dodgers are tough enough. I know the Brewers aren’t the best, but they have an offense that can create a lot of problems if they get going at the right time.
Braves have to essentially treat every remaining game as a playoff game. Go full throttle.
Lets go Braves!!!!!!
I know these guys got it in em! step up guys and lead us back into October! One game at a time. Lets go Braves!
I figure we have to go 6-1 against the Nats and win the series against the Fish. It seems like every time there’s a ray of hope we lay an egg.
I am going to LMAO when Greg Norton or Kelly Johnson get a hit in our last game of the season that sends us into the playoffs….it will only be better if Garret Anderson is the one on base who scores the game-winner!
:)
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 25, 2009 12:46 PM EDT reply actions
lol…but, that is less realistic since we all know that Bobby won’t use him again this season!
:)
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Sep 25, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Bobby Cox believes in Norton and GA because they are vets and have come through before in clutch. And we know they will get the call and be in the position to come through again. That is just the way Bobby manages. Whether they can actually come through and deliver with the big hit in the big game and prove him right is the only question.
We need a little luck
But I’ll admit our schedule vs. the Rockies’ schedule gives reason for optimism. We need to almost win out at this point, but that’s not impossible, and I don’t think the Rockies will gain any ground playing the Dodgers and Cards.
by FineHamAbounds on Sep 25, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions
BP's playoff odds report
Standard report has us at 9.8%.
ELO adjusted (I don’t understand this, but it adjusts for how good a team is playing right now) has us at 14.5%.
PECOTA adjusted (adjusted based on the preseason projections): 13.7%
All of those are long shots, but give us a weekend sweep of the Nats and we’ll see how things go.
This weekend is basically for all the marbles.
Go Bravos! Go Cards!
(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)
"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews ~ RIP Roi
Chief! Do your anti-rain dance!!! Now, damn it! Now!!!
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Sep 25, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget
Go Cubbies!!
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
That’s not relevant any more, since the Cards’ magic number is 1. We just want the Cards to keep playing for this series, now.
Cautiously optimistic
I love the Braves, but this team has been pretty crazy this year. They sweet the Cards and then get swept by the Reds. They win 3 of 4 from the Dodgers but lose 2 of three to the Padres. Considering this trend. I am optimistic about the rest of the schedule but i do so cautiously because they do seem to get beat by some of the real bad teams in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised if we lost 3 games to the Nationals in the next 7 games with them.
We can do this
Go Braves!!
Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
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