Braves Starting Pitchers... Who to Trade?
by gondeee on Sep 11, 2009 10:55 AM EDT
in Braves Trade News
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PrintThere has been a lot of talk in the past week about the Braves inability to keep both Javier Vazquez and Tim Hudson on the pitching staff next year. This is assuming that the Braves pick up Hudson's option (something they said they would do before the season), and that Hudson accepts that option (something he has the right to decline).
Picking up Hudson's option would present the team with a problem -- they would have six starting pitchers going into the 2010 season, and four of them would be very well paid. Hudson and Vazquez would presumably be on one year deals, with the rest of the staff locked up beyond 2010.
Ken Rosenthal pointed out this dilemma earlier this week, and Jeff Schultz of the AJC is the latest to point it out. In both cases they consider only trading either Hudson or Vazquez, reasoning that Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami would be too hard to move, and Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are too young and too good to move. My thinking lately has shifted from this foregone conclusion of trading either Hudson or Vazquez. I say the Braves should "consider" trading one of those other pitchers, specifically Jair Jurrjens. Now before you blast me for saying this, hear me out (after the jump).
When the Braves acquired him, most scouts considered Jurrjens a solid middle of the rotation starter. In two years with Atlanta he has proven that he is that and possibly a lot more. When we consider what we might get in return for any of these pitchers, consider that trading either Hudson or Vazquez would probably net us only another high-priced player in return who we wouldn't control for very long. Their value on the trade market is limited by their contract status -- both pitchers are only under contract for next season.
Consider these other factors with regards to trading either of these guys. Hudson is probably not tradable since he's a 10-and-5 player and would have to approve any trade. Vazquez is likely not very desirable by many teams because of his inability to pitch effectively at previous stops in New York, Arizona, and Chicago -- his reputation was damaged by his perceived mediocrity in those cities. Vazquez also has a no-trade clause to any NL West or AL West club. Add to that his $11.5 million salary which puts him out of reach of many low budget clubs and that rules out over half of the teams in major league baseball. Know this, trading Javier Vazquez would be very difficult.
So then, who has the most trade value on the Braves pitching staff? It's those young guys, Hanson and Jurrjens. Sure you'd like to have these two guys make up the core of your staff for the next four years, but remember that the Braves biggest problem this year was scoring runs on a consistent basis. We're pretty sure we'll get some help in that department next year from Jason Heyward, and perhaps Freddie Freeman, but if those two are delayed, then our offense might be weaker than it was this year if Adam LaRoche and Garret Anderson leave as expected with a weak free agent market.
In offering up Jurrjens in a trade, the Braves would not be looking for a high-priced near-free agency option in return. They'd be looking for the hitting equivalent of JJ -- a young impact player with several more years before free agency. Consider Toronto's Adam Lind or Houston's Hunter Pence or Milwaukee's Ryan Braun as affordable young players under team control for several more years.
A young inexpensive player may allow us to keep both Vazquez and Hudson through the end of next year. We could then offer up a reasonable 3-year contract to one of those guys, if the first one doesn't accept, then we offer the same deal to the other guy; knowing that both of them like Atlanta and may take a discount to stay here. That would allow us to retain a strong core of four starters heading into 2011, with Mike Minor on the horizon to take over the fifth spot.
Adding a young bat like the ones mentioned above, as well as working in Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman throughout the year, should put our offense back on the right track. Trading Jurrjens would be tough, but we would likely lose nothing less from our 2010 pitching staff than if we traded Hudson or Vazquez, and the value of the player we would net in return would be far greater. This would also be in keeping with a recent trend of Braves GM Frank Wren -- trading from a position of strength. We're strong in the starting pitching department, and no matter who we lose from that group we'll still be strong. I say trading Jurrjens is the right move (and in keeping with another trend of Wren, it may also be an unpopular move).
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Ryan braun
there’s no way we’re getting braun for jurrjens, I don’t care if we get a mediocre player in return for hudson or vazquez. You don’t give up a young pitching talent that has proven (or at least begun to prove) himself at the major league level. I think the better option is just not picking up hudson’s option. Our pitching was toward the top in the league before he came back, free up his big cap number and re-sign laroche or a free agent bat.
I agree with mostly everything except...
that losing Garret Anderson will make us weaker, he’s got to be the worst #5 hitter in the majors, he kills us with his lack of run production with men on base.
do you have any evidence of this… or are u just gonna talk out your ass?
his 737 OPS is low for a corner OF, but he started horrible, and didnt have any sprign trainign because of injury. He posted a 804 OPs in June and a 944 OPS in July.
Im not saying he is good, but he isn’t the 5th worst hitter in the minors… he is right about average for a hitter in the NL (maybe slightly lower, because of his slow start)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
"worst #5 hitter"
was in reference to his spot in the batting order.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 11, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
what about August and September?
.658 OPS in August, and .480 so far in September.
Garret Anderson is not helping us as much as you think he is. At least not the last 2 months
by drumzalicious on Sep 11, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
to be fair everyone sucks in Sept… so im blaming that on the water…. and the point is true he was weak in Aug… but he still isn’t as bad as he is sometimes thought to be… (he also isn’t a great player by any stretch of the imagination)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Nice.
Way to think outside the box.
"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999
Trading JJ sounds good but not to sure about it
I’ve been thinking some of the same thoughts on even if we got offered a big bat in trade, can we keep him or afford him? JV in trade by himself I don’t think would get us what we want. But there is Medlen in the bullpen, he looks very promising as a trade with?. I’m not that crazy about losing any of the young pitching talent. Don’t know what the BP is going to look like come Spring. We really need to try to keep LaRoche. Heyward, Schafer and Freeman may be hitting great in Spring or they may not, won’t know till then, so the Braves better have someone waiting who is a known batter. Without putting out the big bucks a young impact hitter like Y. Escobar is all this team will be able to do.
Senator, we have another old saying,"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." Fletcher
sorry. but f that
JJ and Tommy are the future….sure it might be hard to move DLowe but that is the move that has to be made
I see your point but...
I’m not sure how many people get how hard it will be to move any of our starters for much value.
Like you said, Vazquez doesn’t have a great track record with big market clubs, his contract makes him a burden on small market clubs and he can’t be traded at all to the West. It would be a good guess to say that we won’t be getting value equal to one season of 200K, 200IP, and an ERA ~3.00.
Who also would be willing to trade equal value (as far as his value to us) for Hudson? He will be a 12M 34 year old with only a few good, hopefully, starts after one of the most major surguries done? Again, he will be very hard to get value for.
Lowe is what he is. He is a perfect MOR starter getting paid like a TOR starter. Unless we eat salary, which would be counter productive, we will keep him and take his valuable reliablity.
Jurrjens may be the most ‘tradable’ of the group in terms of getting equal value for him but I’m not sure its possible. Getting a player like Pence, Braun, Fielder, Kemp, etc would be equal or better value but how likely is a trade like that? Have we ever had a controllable stud for controllable stud trade in this economic climate? The realitiy is GMs hold on so tighly to their controllable franchise players that they never get traded. So again, Jurrjens would be very hard/impossible to get equal value.
Hanson is too good and too controllable to be traded. He is Wren’s gem and I can say with 100% certainly he and Heyward would take a Pujols like value not because they are necessarily worth that but because they are our GM’s young gems.
Kawakami’s remaining contract isn’t really that bad. Since the first month of the season he has a 3.48 ERA and is only owed 13.33M over the next two years. How many GM’s would give out a realitively short 2yr/13.33 contract to a pitcher who should keep his ERA below 4.00. I would say most would make that deal. I am not advocating trading Kawakami but I am saying he is the MOST tradable of our pitchers not because he is very tradable but because everyone else would be so hard to get fair value if moved.
I am advocating making Kawakami our closer/setup man. In the first inning opposing hitters have a .669OPS against and then it rises to a 1.175OPS by the sixth inning. Paying 6.667MM a year to a closer (who could also start very effectively in case of injury) is not so outrageous and would keep Kawakami in a role prestigious enough not to hurt Japanese relations. The way he pitches in high pressure sitiuations (ie against opposing aces) and his success in early innings leads me to believe he would be a very good closer.
Using the above six to fill the rotation and closer role, we would still have ~20M to get a 1B, LFer, and/or a setup man or offer arbi to Johnson and/or Church. With the way FA went last year we will be able to get at least three qualitiy players for 20M.
vasquez and some cash
to Tampa for Crawford and Rid Brignac (future 3B)
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 12, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Braun for JJ
That is so outlandish. The Brewers would never consider this…….waste of time.
Lind has only shown his strength for 1 year…..let’s wait a while on that front to avoid a flash in the pan player. Pence…..I would not make that deal……no way I am trading a #1 0r #2 starter for that guy.
Not a bad idea exploring the possibility of moving JJ, but I would rather keep my young guns, pitching is THE HARDEST THING TO FIND. The only thing harder to find than good pitching is YOUNG good pitching. Keep them both. Trade them after Tommy John down the road.
waive Derek Lowe
Free up 15 million for a position player and relievers by waiving Derek Lowe. Who knows, maybe a couple of teams will claim him and we’ll get something in return.
When starting pitching gets tight in the free agent market this winter, a solid 15 game winner, a groundball pitcher with a fine post-season record may look pretty interesting to teams in Boston and Los Angeles, or any well funded club which comes up a starter short in late September and October. For these teams, Lowe’s contract — excessive by only 2-3 million — may not seem so risky.
you are on drugs, right?
this isn’t the nfl
when you sign a FA, you’re stuck with them until you trade them or the contract runs out. if you waive them, you still pay the remainder of the contract.
wow, either you’re a moron or you don’t know much about baseball.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 12, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
You don’t read very well. He went on to say that his reputation may bait someone into claiming him off waivers and so would be on the hook for his salary even if we didn’t get anything back.
Waiving someone is much different from just removing them from teh 25 man.
Please, next time, before you go about bashing people please make sure your post isn’t competely foolish.
It's got to be Vazquez
I really don’t know what we’re going to do this off season. We are going to sign a closer. Whether is Gonzalez of Soriano. I doubt we can afford to keep both once they hit the FA market. We need a big bat and the only open position that would be a good idea to sign someone for would be the OF. Our trading chip is a starter but I’m not sure which one would be best to trade. I think that KK is going to be a good option out of the pen. Someone above mentioned him as a closer and I dont think that’s a bad idea. So in that case we don’t need to trade a starter because we only have 5. And with the departure of Soriano/Gonzalez we have some FA money there. I think this would be the best idea. To let those two walk and have KK try it out as our closer. Bring up Kimbrel as a setup man to him and transition him into the closers role over the next year or two. This year the Gonzalez/Soriano combo is making $9,900,000. That is a good chunk of change to go out and get a big bat. This is my idea…
by michaelcooksey on Sep 11, 2009 12:06 PM EDT reply actions
Everyone says 'BIG BAT!! BIG BAT!!'
Whe the hell is this big bat?
Are people thinking we will out-offer NYY, BOS, STL, SF, LAA, etc for the only two LFers, Bay and Holliday, worth a big commitment in the 100MM/5+year range? There is such a small chance that this happens that there is now way we should be thinking about trading away Vazquez or Hudson for the reason of having this small CHANCE we sign one of these two or getting some super available ‘Big Bat’ in return.
If we keep our six we still have the cash to sign two or three in the LaRoche, N. Johnson, Nady etc range and build a complete lineup though one without this mythical ‘Big Bat’.
Bay is not getting 5/100+. I bet he sees something in the 3/33 – 4/50 range. Nothing more than that.
by soup du jour on Sep 11, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Since they are the only true ‘impact power’ bats on the market, they will get more than their worth from the teams that can afford to overpay for the elite of the market every year. Even if they don’t get 100MM when BOS, LAA, SF, and NYY could all be in the market for a LF it will be a very small chance we bring one in. I’m just saying we shouldn’t be making some sort of major financial move for some small chance we sign one of these two.
People are saying Jeter will get $100 million
Bay will get a significant contract. That contract will suffer from diminishing returns every year after it is signed. I hope the Braves don’t make that mistake. I agree with you about building a complete team with guys like LaRoche and Nady. Would rather steer clear of Nick Johnson.
Other guys to consider:
Adrian Beltre
Johnny Damon
Andruw Jones
Bobby Abreu
by Andy Braves Fan on Sep 11, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
jeter can have 100 million
because he’s a douche that’s not worth it…if he were on a team like Tampa, would he even play?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 12, 2009 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions
trade Kenshin Kawakami to Boston or the Dodgers
If no one takes Lowe, we swap KK to Boston or Los Angeles for a bullpen or third base prospect. KK has proven himself a giant killer against the top starters in the league. $8 million is a pittance to the wealthier teams, and he would be a good cultural fit in Boston or L.A.
Vazquez has been too darned good to trade. We’re looking to reassemble a big three, and right now Hanson, Jurrjens, and Vazquez are the best we’ve got. Vazquez has our only complete game, something we’ll need more of in the future.
Accept it: now that TBS is gone, the Braves are just a middle market club. All trades should be made to maximize the number of low cost, high productivity players under team control. Trading is Jurrjens is out of the question based on these realities.
Heyward will be in right in 2010, Diaz probably in left. Freeman is a possibility for 2011, which could give us a chance to save money on LaRoche. Further savings can be acccomplished when Minor and whomever replace Lowe and Hudson or Kawakami in 2011 or 2012.
But we will need to develop or acquire inexpensive solutions at 2nd and possibly 3rd, by that time, and when Escobar hits upper arbitration we might need to deal him for a rising young shortstop.
This is why deals like the Drew and Teixeira acquisitions were so disasterous to our long term picture. Several inexpensive years from players like Wainwright and Andrus must never be traded away again. Short term thinking is disasterous in investments, and bottom line, the Braves are an investment.
This point is a very good one:
Accept it: now that TBS is gone, the Braves are just a middle market club. All trades should be made to maximize the number of low cost, high productivity players under team control
by Andy Braves Fan on Sep 11, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Today on XM radio....
Hudson said he would be willing to sign with the Braves at a discount for more years.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Why such a narrow focus?
If we’re talking about salary options, let’s talk salary options. Every player making over the minimum needs to be considered. I’d agree that trading a pitcher is a good idea because of the surplus of veterans and with Medlen as 5th starter insurance. But trading Lowe or KK has to be explored. You never know what kind of offer is out there if you don’t ask. I don’t think it’s an outlandish idea that a team would take all of KK’s or part of Lowe’s contract and give something of value—maybe not the next Smoltz, but who is?
Gonzo (3.45 mil) and Soriano (6.1 mil) are making over 9.5 mil this season. I doubt that both players will be kept, and the one that stays will probably get around 6-7 mil for a savings of 2-3 mil (a league min player/salary will take the other’s place).
Diaz (1.24 mil), Church (2.8 mil), and KJ (2.8 mil) are all Arbitration Eligible—do we keep all three? As talented and valuable as they have been, KJ and Church have to be considered as trade/non-tender candidates. That could free up 4.5 mil.
Finally, Norton and GA make 3.3 mil combined. Replacing them a pair of league min players saves ~2.4 mil.
So, there are other ways to save money. The Braves will investigate all of them, becuase not only do they have to improve the offense, they also have to pay for raises to guys like McCann and Moylan (arb-eligible). It will be an interesting off-season, to say the least.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
I like the thought process but trading JJ could net the Bravos the same result they found last year in that our veteran pitching staff finds it self on the shelf. Make the choice w/ huddy or vasquez and get a bat in return (either by trade or free agent). Sign LaRoche – he wants to be in Atlanta and would be perfect to bridge the gap to Freeman. JHey will have to produce…have to.
by Chesterhighwater on Sep 11, 2009 12:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
You can’t let Huddy walk for nothing. We won’t even get a draft pick if we decline his option. The question is whether Hudson will be looking for an extension given that it’s a mutual option. I would look to extend Hudson’s contract and shop Vazquez. He’ll bring back a good bullpen arm or a prospect with a strong upside. We should let Gonzo and Soriano walk.
We’re going to need to find a stop-gap at first base. LaRoche will get a 3 year deal from someone. We’ll non-tender KJ if we can’t get a low-level prospect. I could see Church coming back.
Can never have too much pitching
and Jair has been an absolute stud. I wouldn’t trade any of them, sit on the depth.
by Andy Braves Fan on Sep 11, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions
And you didn’t even mention that JJ is a Boras guy, so the chance of resigning him later would be difficult.
but he's got 3 more controllable years...
before Free Agency. why trade him NOW? i’m all for that if we need to, but we could get a king’s ransom if we trade him later.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 12, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions
The King would bring a much larger ransom if we trade a Boras client with 3 more controllable years.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 12, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
The options . . .
With both Gonzo and Soriano being free agents, Anderson as well, there will be cash to upgrade the team. KJ they need to let go. We have Infante, Prado, and even though Infante gets a new deal this year it still will be less than what KJ is drawing. Brian is locked in for a few more years and is very reasonable since he is one of the top receivers in the game. The starter I believe that needs to dealt with is Lowe. His salary against the cap is hard, and he does have places that would love to have him in their rotation.
I believe if they are sincere on building with youth, then they have to keep the young guns because I do believe JJ, Hanson, Medlin will make a solid three of five in the rotation for years to come. Heyward is ready to take over in RF, McLouth is our CF for another four years, and we could platoon Church and Diaz in LF to save cash. THis would allow them to sign, LaRoach to return, keep Hudson and extend him for another four years, and work with Freeman and Schafer in the minors. Then the last part is this year there are true closers available so they still would have cash to add one.
I keep hoping the minors will produce us a closer but so far that has not happened. We do have many players there that are going to help at some point, but I believe we need to find a replacement for Chipper. He is showing his age now and unless he gets a trainer we will continue to see a drop in his production.
Last note: the gentleman who posted Andruw as a possible solution, we do not need another no hit for average player. Andruw is hitting almost Mendoza now.
he also has a .260 ISO :)
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 11, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I love it
Bruce, Kinsler, and Adam Jones are some other guys to think about.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
Kinsler reminds me of Eric Byrnes, and that scares me. Jones is too damn streaky, and Bruce is overrated.
Kinsler is nothing like Eric Byrnes… Kinsler has a good track record…Eric Byrnes has had one great freak year.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
plus
Ian Kinsler doesn’t piss you off everytime he swing the bat like Byrnes does.
Frank Wren for GM of the Year.
"Wait, bait and bash." - Jason Heyward's personal philosophy.
by Scott Coleman on Sep 11, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
?!?!?!?!
But you brought up Pence or Lind instead? Pence is Francouer with a little bit more plate discipline and Lind is all bat no glove LF. Kinsler would be worth the bounty, but Texas isn’t in a position to trade position players.
by NEBravesFan33 on Sep 12, 2009 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Bruce is actually a pretty good choice, it’d be a definite buy low and we could get a couple other attractive pieces ie Nick Massett as well as a top prospect or two (Yonder Alonso perhaps) who we could flip for other needs since he is basically a freddie freeman type guy with worse defense. Or Bruce, Massett, and B. Phillips for Jurrjens+some average prospects. Bruce was plagued by a ridiculously low BABIP around .200 for most of his season so the average won’t be that low. An OF of Bruce-Schafer-Heyward would be scary good in 2011 and beyond. But you are right JJ for Bruce straight up is a terrible deal for us
by McCann's the Man on Sep 11, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, I think if we were to do this, we should explore getting a young reliever who can close in the deal. Not considering the other teams needs, Toronto with Adam Lind and Jason Frasor/Scott Downs for JJ and a piece or two could be what we need.
by soup du jour on Sep 11, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Just keep them all and make KK the closer.
If Dunn walks 30 fewer times, he'll drive in 15 more runs. This is thanks to the scientifically proven formula: RBI = (this is nonsense) (I made it all up).
Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.
Not a closer
he has the 9th highest BB rate in the league and his fastball is his worst pitch.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 11, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
He hasn’t given allowed more than three walks in a game since July 18 and hasn’t allowed any inf 4 of 10 starts since. It was pretty much a given that he was going to take some time to get used to our baseballs and strike zone. It is apparent that he is figuring it out.
As long as he is effective I don’t care how he he gets his outs. He has been good in pressure situations and early in the game.
Nice try
but he’s only had eight starts since that date. The other two games are relief appearances, including a 2 IP, 2BB performance most recently. And he’s been hit much harder when his pitch count is <25 than when it is in the 26-75 range. He’s perfect for long relief.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 11, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I said this in another thread.
That we should consider dealing J.J. and i got blasted for it.
The only player of great impact we might be able to get is Prince Fielder.
However if you wanna go mega-hitter you could look at Adrian Gonzalez. Of course more than J.J. would be required but still just a thought
add Freeman and filler?
If Dunn walks 30 fewer times, he'll drive in 15 more runs. This is thanks to the scientifically proven formula: RBI = (this is nonsense) (I made it all up).
Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.
JJJ, Freeman, fringe player to be named later...
for Prince Fielder is something Milwaukee just might do. They need pitching and cant afford to keep all their young hitting/fielding talent. i love it and demand it happens come seasons end.
Not sure how interested they'd be in Freeman
I don’t think they want Blanks in RF forever.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 11, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
why woiuld we trade a cost contorlled pitcher for a one year rental. Prince has one year left on his deal, is a Boras client, and will be testing the FA pool. Considering how good he has been this year… he will get paid a really high number that we wont be able to match.
If JJ is the best move I’m all for it, but the idea is to trade a cost controlled pitcher for a cost controlled hitter. Or at least thats what i got from Gondee’s post. So its not really intelligent to trade for a guy who will be gone after a year.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Wrong.
Fielder is under contract for 2010 and hits arbitration again in 2011.
by drumzalicious on Sep 11, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
i meant he was under contract until 2010, ifthat wasnt clear, but i did not know he was arb elgible for 2011… the point still stands he isnt cheap talent. that would increase our payroll by about 10M for next year.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
This is a trade I would consider
Jurrjens, Freeman and one or two other minor leaguers for Fielder would be a reasonable deal. We’d have Fielder for two seasons.
One thing is for certain, the Braves need another young position player in the worst way.
by NEBravesFan33 on Sep 12, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
I think
that we could get it done without giving up Freeman. The whole point of the suggestion was for Fielder to be a stop gap to Freeman.
I think JJ and a couple of those Minor League arms would do it
by drumzalicious on Sep 12, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
End of ‘08: Not enough quality starting pitching
End of ’09: Too much quality starting pitching
I’ll take the latter. And I trust Franky Wren to use this strength to make next year’s team better.
Personally, I’m looking forward to going to the House That Albert Built tonight and watching JJ make El Hombre look like a mere hombre tonight
It’s easy to get “too much” pitching when you go out and spend $100 MM on it while ignoring other areas of need …
when did we spend 100M on pitching?
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
I am down with trading JJ. Young cost controlled we could deff. get a haul for him. Javy isnt getting traded just look at the NL central teams no one has any money, and then you look at the AL central the only team who can afford him is well no one.
Twins No, Royals No, Tigers No, Im not going to bother with the Soxs, and Cleveland no dinero!!!
Pirates, Cincy, and the Cards are a No. Cubs? Houston? and the Brewers I find very intriguing and I always thought the Braves matched up well with them but once again they will be operating on a very tight budget and 11.5 million isnt chump change in this economy even to the Yanks.
Conclusion: We will not pick up Hudsons option, we will keep Javy and move along!!
Baseball is my life
Lowe to BP
as Mike Marshall high-leverage 3 IP closer.
Tough call
Not really sure what to make of this idea. On the one hand I agree that JJ has by far the most trade value of any Braves starter, but on the other hand I don’t think we could really extract full value for him in trade. The Braun or Fielder ideas above are good examples of this in that Milwaukee most likely would not part with either straight up for JJ even though he, at least in my opinion, has more value overall than either hitter when considering salary/tenure/performance as a whole.
I’m hoping FW pulls another rabbit out of his hat this off season, as long as that rabbit isn’t named Garrett Anderson. Otherwise I’m leaning more towards a salary dump type trade with Lowe involved to clear room for an FA OF. That of course is assuming the Braves and Hudson continue their marriage.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
jurrjens?
so, what about 2010 when hudson and vazquez both walk because we cant afford to pay them? where will the rotation then be?
lowe
hanson
kawakami
medlen?
rick camp?
dont like it one bit. javier vazquez will not be that difficult to trade, however he’s not going to bring in a stud hitter that we can control for years to come. javier vazquez for nick swisher. that could work.
doubt
the Yankees have the desire to revisit Vazquez.
um.
2011.
we will have the possibility of Minor and some of our other pitchers in there as well.
by drumzalicious on Sep 11, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
where will Shafer play? If he does well in Spring Training again, does he start in CF and move McClouth to LF? Or start the year in AAA. We all predict that JayHey will kill AFL, and kill Spring Training, and throw up some BJ Upton (minus the steals) #’s when he gets the call in June.
- I miss Spooneybarger :(
by Mighty Healthy on Sep 11, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I personally hope to god he doesnt put up BJ Upton nbrs. he went 236/ 309/364 this year… if Heyward does that we are effed
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
+1
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 12, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally
I think Schafer and Heyward will come up at the same time, moving McLouth to LF.
by drumzalicious on Sep 11, 2009 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions
.. there’s also that glut of BOR starters that we having moving through the high minors, all of whom would make solid #4 or #5 or long relief guys.
- I miss Spooneybarger :(
by Mighty Healthy on Sep 11, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Ready for what?
Walking in run after run. Great stuff and would be almost unhittable against RH, but he needs to have better control to get major league hitters out.
by NEBravesFan33 on Sep 12, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions
It's an intriguing idea
I am of the belief that there is no such thing as a untouchable asset. I mean, if the right trade comes along …
That said, there are certainly assets that are tougher to move than others. Generally, quality, young SP’s fit into that mold. Trading Jurrjens might be able to improve the short term (although I have doubts the right trade would come along to do that, netting the young bat ALONG with the remaining pitchers staying at their levels), but it would not be healthy for the Braves long term plans.
With a weak pitching market, I think the Braves should be able to move one of their veterans without eating too much money. Don’t rule out a Derek Lowe move – he’s garnered enough credit as a big game pitcher that some teams may roll that dice. That said, Vazquez seems like the likely guy, considering the remaining year left and his performance this year (Hudson would be a tougher bet for teams, with uncertainty on performance, and not sure Kawakami generates that much interest).
The Braves might need to eat some money, but keeping Jurrjens around is the better move (unless they have some other concern). I believe Wren has likely been given the okay to have a long term view for the organization. They might try to accelerate that plan a bit with Chipper slowing down, but I don’t believe Wren will deviate that much from a long term view for the Braves.
Whatever the scenario or move is with a veteran pitcher, they don’t need to net immediate talent in return. Prospects would be fine, allowing some payroll flexibility for the Braves to add/keep a bat. Ideally, Adam LaRoche would be amenable to a 2 year deal, and he seems like he does like it there.
X-FACTORS (for me at least)
1. Cody Johnson – If he makes major strides at AA with his contact rate, he’s the shoo-in for the LF job in 2011
2. Mike Minor – If he does work at the AFL, then AA/AAA next season, and profiles as a real good #3, then he makes those guys easier to move
3. Brandon Hicks – Like Minor, if he does major work at the AFL, then spring training, then AA/AAA next year, he adds flexibility. Possibly as a replacement for Chipper or to make Escobar expendable.
4. Cole Rohrbough – If he rebounds, back in TOR/MOR form he makes those moves much easier as well.
5. Craig Kimbrell – Walks! He’s our 2010 lights-out closer/set up guy if he gets those down in the AFL and spring training.
6. Jordan Shafer – Adds to more trading chips if he returns to form in spring training. Allowing Wren to add McClouth in a deal
- I miss Spooneybarger :(
by Mighty Healthy on Sep 11, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Cody Johnson will not be ready for 2011. There’s more that he needs to improve beyond contact which will hardly be a one year fix, there’s also defense. Even if he improves his contact rate it would still be around the worst in the minors
by McCann's the Man on Sep 11, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
And I just can’t see trading Jurrjens as the right move. Beyond next year if you lose him we have Lowe, Kawakami, and Hanson penciled in and then Kawakami’s contract expires. I’d like to have two ace lites penned into my future rotations for the next 4-5 years at least. Pitching is a current strength but let’s not get short sighted. What we need is to increase payroll flexibility, flood the bullpen with solid, but unspectacular options (cheaper, just as effective), and grab two bats preferably dan uggla for 2b and one of glaus/laroche to play 1b. We need financial flexibility not a stud young hitter, we have escobar, mccann, heyward, and mclouth for multiple years going forward and that’s a strong enough nucleus if you supplement it with a dan uggla and freddie freeman
by McCann's the Man on Sep 11, 2009 8:00 PM EDT reply actions
Here’s another reason to consider trading JJ – his agent is Scott Boras.
Can you imagine how badly he will rape us in arbitration when JJ is eligible. We all know this guy’s antics. We’ve seen him lay ruin to a team’s payroll year after year. We’ve seen him walk into the arbitration room with ridiculous demands and come out smiling. We’ve seen him lock up huge deals for guys who did nothing.
I want NO part of that bastard whatsoever. I’m sure he already has a team of scoundrels preparing a dossier on how Jurrjens is the second coming Roger Clemmens as we speak.
You do know Boras clients have taken less money in the past, right? Jurrjens grew up as a big time Braves fan, he strikes me as the kind of guy that will stick around for less as long as we remain competitive. If we’re going to worry about a guy leaving, I’d be more worried about Hanson who will likely be in line to make more and has no strong attachments to atlanta or the braves
by McCann's the Man on Sep 11, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Trade Schafer for a good reliever or 1B.
Heyward RF
Mclouth CF
Diaz LF
Matt Diaz flipping rules.
...>_>
why trade schafer at an all time low value?
by McCann's the Man on Sep 11, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Well what do you propose we do?
I dont think more time in AAA will do him any good, and Diaz needs to be starting.
Matt Diaz flipping rules.
...>_>
actually I do, his defense was somewhat poor in the majors this year so working on fundamentals like taking good routes, swing mechanics ie better contact, can only help. I think late 2010 should be Schafer’s ETA for a return trip to atlanta
by McCann's the Man on Sep 11, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
yes it will
will help him get his confidence back and make sure he has his swing and other fundamentals down
by drumzalicious on Sep 12, 2009 3:27 AM EDT up reply actions
trading Jurrens
almost beyond belief we would consider even in fantasy trading this kid.
I recall braves had a run in the 50ties with spahn, burdette, buhl, in
the 90ties with glavine, smoltz, maddox.
the real question is who is going to rise to the #3 for 5 years. my guess
is vasquez. great stuff, good SO ability, good mentality.
Lowe, KK are in my view not up to playoff caliber for different reasons.
Hudson so far looks encouraging, very much so, for a strong return. used
carefully MOR.
Braves’ respected bullpen 0f 2008 dropped a couple of notches. My guess
is Soriano stays, Moylan stays, Kimbrel comes up next spring, Gonzales
goes. the search will be for a dependable lefty in the pen, someone to truly
spell Chipper at 3B, and a CF with leadoff skills. Diaz has earned the right
to start, either Church or Mclouth will move on, Heyward steps in. KJ is not
a fit in such a scenario as Infante is truly a super utility guy and back up. I
would have hoped Schaefer would be the answer in CF, yet he has a lot
to prove to the point in which Brandon has moved up in the depth chart
as a back up equal to GA above a couple of other guys underscoring the need for a true leadoff in CF.
Why not?
If Schafer is doing great and Heyward is as well why keep him around? We could start Diaz in LF and trade McLouth to save a few mil
by drumzalicious on Sep 12, 2009 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions
this offseason no chance. The difference in Diaz and McLouth’s salary is not large enough to justify moving Nate. I could see after next season as a possibility but no sooner
by McCann's the Man on Sep 12, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
im not saying this offseason
it would obviously have to be at the earliest next years trade deadline because we would have to have good looks at Schafer and Heyward before making that move
by drumzalicious on Sep 12, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
okay then i can start to agree with what you’re saying but I’d think we’d still keep mclouth and just move him to LF. I love Matt Diaz (no homo) but fact is McLouth is simply a better baseball player and will only cost 2-3M more which is a small price to pay for the difference in skill level. I can see him being moved in the 2010 offseason at earliest
by McCann's the Man on Sep 13, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
2011 rotation
Hanson
Lowe – How old will be be?
Kawakami
Hudson or Vazquez on an extension
Minor
Sorry, I don’t like that nearly as much as:
Hanson
Jurrjens
Lowe
Kawakami
Minor
If we trade JJ
That makes our rotation
Hudson
Vazquez
Hanson
KK
Lowe
by drumzalicious on Sep 12, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Derek Lowe will be the same age in 2011 regardless or whether or not we move JJ.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Sep 12, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
That said
I agree that Jurrjens actual value is lower than his perceived value, but you’d really have to get a very good young position player with equal or better service time. If you could find me that player, than please do, but it’d be very hard. Joey Votto would make some sense, with Yonder Alonso coming up. But with Freddie Freeman not too far away, I’m not sure how much of a great deal that would be.
The play, unfortunately, is to trade Vazquez. And if you want to say f*** it and go for it all next year. Then dump Kawakami’s salary for a couple of B level prospects and go for broke with a ridiculous staff of Hanson, Jurrjens, Vazquez, Lowe and Hudson.
This absurd idea that Kawakami would net nothing through trade or that we would have to pay his salary is completely off base. He’s a league average pitcher. They make 6-8 million on the open market. I bet a team, perhaps Seattle or Minnesota, would welcome a pitcher like Kenshin.
The Braves core - and the age they will be during 2010 season
Chipper(although this is more because he is the face) – 38
McCann – 26
Escobar – 27
Hanson – 23 turning 24
Jurrjens – 23 turning 24
Heyward – 20 turning 21
People are starting to overrate mike minor
Matt Diaz flipping rules.
...>_>
by esadb on Sep 12, 2009 11:27 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I agree
But he is still a good bet to be a #4/5. That wasn;t worth a first round pick, but I believe many have gone iver this. He was selected because the Braves have little to nothing in the upper minors in terms of pitching talent and while his upside isn’t great, the probablity of him being league average is better than most. It was a conservative selection. Something we shouldnt do next year.
by NEBravesFan33 on Sep 12, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
No I’m past lambasting the pick, I’m just saying I’ve seen a lot of future projections with him as our 3rd starter
by McCann's the Man on Sep 12, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
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