Great post, rec’d. I always believed that KK was better than what people said about him. Now we have the numbers to prove them otherwise. Thanks

Simple – the 8-12 record that the Braves are posting in Kawakami starts. The knee-jerk reaction is that it’s always KK’s fault, and right now, many people are conditioned to assume that a Kawakami start is a likely loss, and somewhere, there’s a stigma being born out of it.

Especially for your first time.

My only critique would be that you shouldn’t go into a research analysis with a preconceived notion. It seems as if you had a point to prove from the start, and then you downplayed stats that didn’t agree with that point and emphasized those that did. Next time let the numbers say what the numbers say, leaving the conclusion up for debate.

All over though, I agree that KK is a better pitcher than what his numbers say, however his inconsistency is what drives me up the wall.

Also, 2.7 ER/g is great, but runs are runs, earned or not 3.8 Runs/g in only 5.5 IP leaves you with roughly 4 runs against to start the 7th inning.

Lastly, has anyone noticed that KK seems to face some of the leagues best pitchers? J. Johnson(10-2), M. Latos(3-1), Santana(11-7), R. Wells(8-4) and I can’t remember if he faced Lincecum early on, maybe not.

While I wouldn’t be suprised if he ended up on the DL when Huddy comes back, I would still like to keep him in the rotation and have Hudson’s ground ball tendancies coming out of the pen. That might take some of the workload off of Moylan.

Why do people hate KK again? As of right now, he looks like a very average starter with upside who can pitch something like 170+ innings a year. There’s value in that. It’s pretty nice when your worst starting pitcher is simply average. I count 31 pitchers who have pitched 80+ innings with ERAs of 5 or more.

The thing bugs me about Kawakami is that he’s never shown the control he’s capable of. His K/BB ratio in Japan over the last 5 years was right at 5 and he can’t even be league average here? I really think the larger balls here (that sounded awkward) are playing a part there.

On the topic of Lowe, holy crap some of his peripherals are ugly. Lowest GB% of his career (54%) and the only time it’s been under 60%. K/9 under 5?! But he’s barely giving up any HRs, his FIP is at 3.79, and he has a chance to hit 200 innings this season so you’ve got to like that.

VORP is based on a pitcher’s runs allowed and innings pitched compared to replacement level based on the league replacement level runs allowed for starters and relievers. They used to use the actual stat runs allowed so I hope they’ve at least upgraded from that. The replacement level varies depending on league average. Their methodology for replacement level is a little funky so the starter/reliever replacement level isn’t as far apart as it should be. VORP, for this season, is something like 5.72 for starters and 5.65 for relievers. VORP was nice when it was new and the only thing around, but the methodology is a bit outdated and their replacement level is a little screwy.

WAR on Fangraphs is based on FIP and innings with some leverage bonuses compared to replacement level. Their replacement level is usually something like 4.5 for relievers and 5.5 for starters, but it varies a bit depending on the run environment. WAR on Statcorner is based on tRA and innings pitched compared to replacement level. tRA, however, comes from linear weights.

But you have some errors.

1) Derek Lowe doesn’t have over 200 Ks this year…not even close. He’s got 72.
2) AJ Burnett doesn’t have 189 Ks. He’s got 117.
3) KK has only given up 60 runs, not 74.
4) Derek Lowe has allowed 64 ERs, not 62.

Some reasons i suspect people don’t like KK:
1. He came here as an unknown signed to a high dollar (for an unknown) multi year deal
2. He seems quiet, and i believe the language barrier is a hindrance. See people’s dislike of Garrett Anderson and Kotchman simply becuase they aren’t lively, perky, and vocal.
3. Yes, the win-loss record screams out to the naked eye evaluating fan.
4. Some fans are never happy, and are always seeking out someone to serve as the weak link who needs to be replaced.

I’ve never been a KK hater. I’ve liked this guy from the start. Not sure why he’s been struggling with control, but I’m sure it has to do with the inconsistency from one ump to the other and he’s still making adjustments.

I do think KK just needs some rest. When Huddy gets back place him on the DL to rest and work on mechanics.

I think Mr. Kawakami is going to have a big year next season. He’s had to make a few adjustments, as noted by others above, and it makes sense that he will improve given time. For now, I’m quite happy with the guy, but I imagine he will only get better if we give him a chance.

I like KK but damn a 1.7 SO/BB? It would also be helpful to include the average for all of these stats

Like rhinoskin said, you came in with a preconceived notion. That being said, I really like KK and think having pitched on this team with the likes of Javy, JJ, Hanson, and Lowe (sorta), Braves fans see him as a “weak” link, when in fact his numbers are more middle of the pack, which for a “weak” link is good. You also have to take into consideration that he’s coming over from a different league with less work on the pitcher and different balls (teehee). KK is used to Horse-hide, which allows for a better grip and more control of pitches but less velocity and now he’s using cow-hide, which may help explain his control-issues.

Also…I like how your used John Maine, Jake Peavy (the two are down with injuries), John Smoltz (missed a huge chunk of the beginning of the season recovering from an injury), Ricky Nolasco (sent down because of his own issues and has struggled compared to last year), and Cole Hamels (bad year for him…especially coming off a WS).

It has been said on this website several times that Kawakami cannot pitch past the 5th inning, and that he cannot throw more than 75-ish pitches

I’ve only been on the website a few months, but that seems to be a bit of a strawman, even for TC.

I can remember earlier in the season when Elias or something mentioned that KK had the worst run support of any SP. May not be true anymore (too lazy to look up), but he still has really bad run support (the story of this season). Still…he’s had some incredible games against Aces (Halladay, Santana, Lincecum, etc.) and I think (and hope) he’ll continue to improve while he adjusts to the league (not only the balls (teehee) and differences between the two leagues, but the fact that he’s facing completely new hitters, which tends to lend itself to the hitters). My only issue with KK is that he seems to be laboring in recent games, which could be the 5-man rotation catching up to him…but otherwise, for our #5 starter…he’s a solid pitcher.

Good stuff Justin. I like KK and I’m glad you’re defending him. Plus, he was cool as hell to me in ST. Still waiting to find that video of me on Japanese TV with his baseball card.

I just was on Baseball-reference.com (where I got all my info from), and read where I could simply click on any given stat and BR.com would total them for me…I spent several hours adding up every stat for every single player I referenced above…FML.

I have always been rooting for KK and do get sick of the bashing he gets (more so on the AJC blogs than this site i must say). I think he has already proven he has the stuff & resilience, and will only get better with experience and some better play from the team (who has been reluctant to back him not only with runs but good D).

Outside of the numbers, of course you have to remember he is not only adjusting to MLB but to america as well and it’s not like ATL (or the south in general) is LA where there is a huge Japanese population. Hell i remember going to see Nomo pitch at Dodger stadium back in the day and there where vendors going up and down the aisles with sushi to cater to all the Japanese in attendance.

Focusing on the low total of walks, while he’s not striking anyone out, is a really bad idea. I don’t exactly get excited about a pitcher walking 8 in a month when he’s only striking out 16. Thats absolutely horrible for 4-5 starts.

I know anyone can look thi up but no one posted it yet… so i figured i would… we are exactly 2/3 of the way done on the season… Kawakami has produced 3.7M worth of value to us… that means at the end of the year he will be at around 5.5 (assuming he continues at his current pace, which is certainly debatable considering he will be approaching a limit of inning he has never pitched before).

He is making 7.667M this season, so the investment wasnt exactly perfect… but there are lots of players that don’t outproduce their salary (the market isnt perfect). That certainly doesn’t make it ok, but it at least partially justifies it… so we may have overpaid, but we don’t know what the other offers were and he might well outproduce his salary over the next two years (when his salary will be 6.667M)

I’ve been pretty happy with KK this year… but Hudson has definately shown that he is the superior pitcher if healthy. Im not worried about his elbow he has shown some positive results so far in rehab and am confident he will outproduce KK (which is more of a glowing review of Timmy then a slight against KK).

When he’s on, he’s on, and when he’s off, he’s off. It’s either he’s bff with the strikezone, or he hates the strikezone.

But if I were he, I would definitely pitch for a W in my next start. Huddy could be back before September.

The post was good, but the pic just made it sexy.

7 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs tonight.

I’ve been meaning to read this justin, but knew I’d have to be alert first and this week’s road trip has kicked my east coast butt. So, this morning with coffee in my Braves victory cup in hand, I finally opened this thread to read.

Good post and one with stats/facts I can actually understand..imagine that! You certainly gave all of us something to ponder over.

As far as KK – I believe his adjustments to the MLB are continuing and I believe he could make us a great pitcher. Last night’s performance was awesome and his gutting it up to get out of a shaky situation late in the game was more than great to see. You could tell he was pumped up on his way to the dugout.

I’m gonna comment less statistically if I may….

His run support his year has been atrocious – and he always seems to be pitching in close ball games because of it – so how much do you think it’s affected his ability to mentally adjust on the mound if he makes a mistake and/or a fluke play in defense gives up a run or two?

I’ve wondered about what it must be like for him to be in the game and feel like he has no room for error. He must feel quite alone at times and if he gives up a dinger or has a rough inning, and Brian visits the mound, how much real communication can occur out there? He’s on his own to find a way to relax and regain his control.

We’ve not given him much reason so far this year to feel our offense will be able to come back and help him out. Hell, as a fan watching the games this year even I’ve even felt at times that if we give up 2 runs, our chances of winning have been slim – I can only imagine how he’s had to feel. Maybe if we continue to do better for the rest of the season he’ll only improve as well and next year he’ll feel more a part of the “team”.

If he had been given more runs to pitch with, his W/L record would be better and thus the “casual fan” perception of him would be totally different and a need for a post like this wouldn’t exist.

18 new comments, 17 by MichaelProcton. I’m finally not surprised. Upset that i clicked on it, yes. But surprised, no.

And we just got procto-bombed again.

:)