Javy wants to stay long term?

by drumzalicious on Aug 21, 2009 3:51 PM EDT Comment 54 comments

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/32507343/ns/sports-player_news/

What do you guys think about this? It could be something where you look at having him vs. having Hudson long term. The ideal situation is that we are able to unload Lowe's contract and salary. If we can do that then extend Javy till 2012 our rotation will look splendid over the years. I wouldnt say to give him a crazy contract maybe re-work his current one like 10 mil base in 2010, 9mil in 2011, and 8mil in 2012. then make the most he can earn go something like 14 mil through incentives.

It's an iffy situation because of Hudson. Maybe the Braves pick up his option then let him go next offseason if Minor is looking like he is ready to be in the bigs in 2011?

That would give us rotations of. (BTW All are if we can drop Lowe)

2010:

Hudson

Javy

J.J.

Hanson

K.K.

2011/2012

Javy

J.J.

Hanson

Minor

Medlen

After that hopefully Tehearan will be ready to come up. Thoughts?

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I'd love to have him long term

but as you mentioned, the depth of our pitching and long-term deal for Lowe is the only concern there.

by was385 on Aug 21, 2009 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You can never have too much pitching

If Vasquez wants to stay, the Braves should absolutely lock him up.

by Yakker on Aug 21, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely, 100%, Lock him up

He really seems to have stepped his game up to another level, and he is the so-called ‘Ace’. Sign him.

by eaheckman10 on Aug 21, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

DO IT, FW!

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 21, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I would like to sign him to a long term deal, and sign JJ to a long term deal before arb. I think the braves concern should to be to try and get something out of lowe this off season. I know your probably like who wants him for $15 million, but i think some teams would take it. They may not give much up but that is understandable. I like the pitching prospects in the system ( alot can happen from now to their time).

by atlbravesfn12 on Aug 21, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I seriously doubt JJ gets signed long term before arbitration. Boras has already come out and spoken his disapproval of it and Boras is his Agent.

I think if we ate like 5 mil a year off of his salary a team would be interested in him. Maybe the Astros? I know they want some pitching. Same for the Brewers.

by drumzalicious on Aug 21, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do it Frankie

"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Aug 21, 2009 7:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lowe's contract is untradable!

It would be different is his performance was top notch but it isn’t.

by KC Ryan on Aug 21, 2009 8:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

no pitcher is untradable…we wont get market value for his talent…but if all we want to do is shed some cap we can do that and we’ll get some prospects back or something

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 21, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I am saying is that absolutely no other team would want to pay him $15 mil a year.

by KC Ryan on Aug 21, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you know the crap that still signs $10+ deals in free agency?

The Yankees could use another starter. So could the White Sox, maybe offer Lowe straight up for Konerko? The Dodgers have Billingsley and Kershaw, but beyond that Hiroki Kuroda is signed through next year only and nothing else, maybe they’d be willing to part with minimal prospects for taking on that contract.

by Mr. Sanchez on Aug 22, 2009 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

serious?

by cirela20 on Aug 22, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

see

where i differ is that i could care less about getting prospects back. just a salary dump is all im looking for

by drumzalicious on Aug 22, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If the Dodgers wanted Lowe

They’d have just signed him this offseason. He was their free agent. They didn’t even get involved in the bidding.

by Bronn on Aug 23, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lowe’s going nowhere. And I wouldn’t sign a 33 year old pitcher to a long-term extension in his peak season. That’s just the pinnacle of stupidity. Let’s see where we are with our staff in fourteen months, see how Vazquez pitches at 34, and see where the market is at before we do anything daft. The Chipper deal looks a hell of a lot worse five months later. Let’s not do anything like that again.

by 17843 on Aug 21, 2009 8:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yes, that .873 OPS we're getting from Chipper makes his contract look terrible

by was385 on Aug 21, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

his defense has been pathetic, his hitting is still well worth it but his insane drop defensively has killed his value. And of course chipper’s deal looks worse now, he had one of the best years in baseball last year but it’s not an ugly contract

by McCann's the Man on Aug 21, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please learn to differentiate worse from terrible. One is a comparison, the other is not.

And when you look at the decline, offensively and defensively, the contract starts looking scary when you realize we’ll be paying him for three more years.

by 17843 on Aug 22, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats what happens when you sign 37 year olds(that usually miss at least 30 games a year right now) playin in the NL to a 3 year extension, his last few years are prolly not gonna be lookin too great, we mainly did it cause he will be good now, next year and prolly solid enough to get by his last year on that contract and plus he will more than likely retire a Brave. He will likely be the VERY first big name superstar to play his entire career with the Braves and retire an Atlanta Brave where he belongs. Hopefully that happens and with that contract it almost guarantees it. This is wayyyyyyyy more than about numbers. This is what he has meant to the Braves his entire career what he has done for this organization. Class act.

braves#1

by rockybull on Aug 22, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

This

Like it or hate it, the Chipper extension was never 100% on the numbers, it was about his legacy with ATL.

by Yakker on Aug 22, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look, Chipper Jones has been my favorite baseball player since I knew what baseball was, but if the organization thought he’d be grossly overpaid in the last few years of his contract as you suggest, it was pretty stupid to for them to have signed him.

There was literally no reason not to wait until October (or even June) to get the extension worked out. If he is such a class act and really did love playing here and want to finish his career here, he wouldn’t go elsewhere as a free agent if we had waited.

by 17843 on Aug 22, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

whoah now 17843 when did i suggest he’d be grossly overpaid in the last few years of his contract? I just said i think at the last year of the deal he would be solid enough to get by with the numbers but his leadership and all that would make it worth the money in my view. So i never suggested he would be grossly overpaid.

And you know why should he sign a contract extension in October? It would already be the end of the season might as well at least test free agency, then you said even June, only thing about that is i would rather get the contract extension out of the way so that he doesn’t have to be thinkin of that for the season. Maybe it wouldn’t bother him, maybe it would who knows, no doubt though he would be thinkin of it from time to time thats only human nature. In my opinion its better to get it out of the way when it was signed but thats just my opinion. You gotta realize you wait til October of this year and IF we miss the playoffs AGAIN then you know Chipper has to be thinkin wow and if a team like the Yankees or a very good team like that says hey come here we will give you plenty of money, DH spot, some 3B and A-Rod can be the DH at times as well, you can get some days off as well come here man we will give you a better chance at a championship. And you know he has to respect that Yankees organization alot and then he is pretty good friends with A-Rod, knows Tex, might even get more money than the Braves were offerin and THEN he can play DH alot and stay in the damn lineup but also plays some 3B from time to time as well, and then a very good chance at a Championship wow if he is offered all of that hey i really couldn’t blame the guy for leavin to be honest. That would make the Yankees a hell of alot better. He would have to entertain that idea no question about it. See man in this way we have him locked up and dont have to worry about crap like that. To me this is sooooooooooooo much better but hey thats just me.

braves#1

by rockybull on Aug 22, 2009 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But if he’s such a class act and really wanted to finish his career in Atlanta he wouldn’t do that. Or was your verbal fellating of him incorrect on that front?

by 17843 on Aug 23, 2009 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

whoah now you can still be a class act and still leave. I think Smoltz was a class act as well but he still left(didn’t really like the words he used when he left but whatever) that happens. I wouldn’t blame the guy if he left if a team like the Yankees or a team like that offered him what i just typed, he would be foolish in my opinion to stay. You can still leave and be a class act, either way he meant a hell of alot to this organization for a very long time that cannot be denied. Im glad that Wren is in charge of this team cause i have been very very very happy with what he has done, the only questionable trade that he has done was the Devine deal but lookin at it you understand that Cox just wasn’t gonna play the guy. Wren knows what he is doin, much more than me, you and any other person on this site knows thats for sure. So im fine with that deal when it was done. If your not well thats your problem then, try not to lose sleep over it lol.

braves#1

by rockybull on Aug 23, 2009 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lowe has been great. Ate innings and has already been worth 12.5 mil this season.

by graf on Aug 21, 2009 10:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m not sure I buy that Lowe has been worth 12.5 mil.

Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur

A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.

by timmy3 on Aug 24, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you don’t have to, it’s true though if you value 1 win as approx 4.5M dollars on the FA market

by McCann's the Man on Aug 24, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

First off, Lowe is not going anywhere. If you want to be able to sign a big name FA w/o a no trade clause for the next 5 years or so, you will not trade Lowe. Second, an extension for Vazquez is ideal for both sides. This seems to be the place where Javy has the highest comfort level, it’s close to his family, and the braves really want him. For us it makes sense because well he’s the best pitcher we’ve had since Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz. Something like 2 years 20-25 million beyond next year’s 11.5M makes sense to me. I don’t think Vazquez is all about the money and we get a great pitcher to lead our rotation through 2012 at a discount price. And no way Hudson should come betwen Javy and a new deal, Hudson is great but Vazquez is definitely better. Heck I wouldn’t mind re-signing both long term if we can afford it. But like I said, Vazquez first then Huddy

by McCann's the Man on Aug 21, 2009 11:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

you cant

have Huddy Lowe AND Javy. What do you then do with KK, JJ, and Hanson? KK isnt going anywhere because he is our ticket to the Asian Market. JJ and Hanson need nothing to be said about them.

The way we are set we dont really NEED a big FA for the next few years. Between Schafer, McLouth, Heyward, Diaz, Church we will will have a good enough OF next year. Only place we need a bat is 1B. Other than that we are pretty much straight

by drumzalicious on Aug 22, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t agree with your thought that Kawakami is not going anywhere, I think he’s the most readily available starter we have. Like it was said nobody is going to trade for Lowe when there will be options on the FA market that are comparable yet way less expensive. Javy, Hudson, Jurrjens, Lowe, and Hanson would be beyond ridiculous as a 5 man rotation

by McCann's the Man on Aug 22, 2009 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this

by cirela20 on Aug 22, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

annnd

Where do you put Kawakami?

Im not saying we trade for grade A prospects. i would be fine with a salary dump of 10 mil a year with us eating the other 5 mil a year.

There are plenty of teams that would take a guy at 10 mil a year.

by drumzalicious on Aug 22, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ll keep Lowe if I have to pay part of his salary and I’m not getting much in the way of prospects back. Kawakami should be the one to go imo

by McCann's the Man on Aug 22, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you mean

the same Kawakami that has better numbers than Lowe?

by drumzalicious on Aug 22, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No. That’s absolutely not true.

Lowe – 6 IP/GS, 3.75 FIP, 4.32 tRA
Kawakami – 5.7 IP/GS, 4.48 FIP, 4.91 tRA

The numbers all point in the opposite direction from your claim.

by 17843 on Aug 22, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

i was going off of ERA, WHIP, and BAA.

by drumzalicious on Aug 22, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ERA

can be a very deceptive stat to use.

by blindsided789 on Aug 22, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So three stats strongly influenced by factors a pitcher doesn’t control? It’s nice that it isn’t 2000 anymore and we have stats worth a damn to the evaluate pitchers with.

by 17843 on Aug 23, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

as an extreme GB guy, Lowe’s FIP probably doesn’t do him justice.

Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.

by VivaLosBravos on Aug 23, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2.8 WAR for Lowe, 1.1 WAR for Kenshin. Plus the FIP and tRA difference shows that Lowe is pitching better

by McCann's the Man on Aug 22, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can someone tell me exactly what is wrong (or unusual) about Derek Lowe’s performance this year? Is it the 6 innings a start? The 3.75 FIP, right in line with his career average? He’s going to earn his contract this year.

Oh wait, it’s probably that his ERA spiked from last year’s unsustainably low number to this year’s unsustainably high number. That’s what happens when you put a ground baller in front of a bad defensive infield.

by 17843 on Aug 22, 2009 6:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lowe has been killed by Chipper and Prado both bad defenders at their respective positions, and even Yunel was hurting earlier in the year when some nagging leg injuries cut his range.

by McCann's the Man on Aug 22, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

personally i want to try to trade Lowe, because he seems to be the least likely to perform in lin e with his contract for the remainder of the contract…(in terms of pitcher)… KK is a close second in that respect… Javy has pitched great….But I do have some concerns

I question why JV has done so well this year. It could be moving into the NL. It could be finally working in a situation that fits him, and I’m sure Bobby has something to do with this. He has always had stuff but he is in his 30s. What reason do we have to believe he has finally starting putting his stuff into productive results.

His KK/9 has jumped. his BB/9 has dropped well below career avgs… His strand rate is above his career avg (although it fluctuates perfectly every other year throughout his career, which is odd to say the least). His HR/9 is down to its lowest level ever.His GB/FB rate is at the highest level sans 2005.

I dont feel completely comfortable that the JV we are seeing this year… will be the same one we see next year or down the road for the next 2-3 years (if we extend him)…Call me crazy, but Im not gonna disregard a decade of statistics just to confirm something I want to be true (that being that Javy has finally starting pitching like he has always been capable of doing)…

This stuff can be said about any pitcher having a good year, and I think we need to remember and remember the track record of a player.

This is not directed at 17843… it just so happened i responded and then diatribed a bit…

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 23, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Javy has played in hitter’s parks for much of his career, of course his HR/9 is down. He’s also in elite company as far as WAR consistency. Beyond the boxscore did a bit on him, i’ll go find the link but I don’t worry about him at all. Lowe’s value is going to match or exceed his contract number this year, Kawakami’s is not so I don’t see where you’re getting Kawakami is a better bet to perform in line with his contract

by McCann's the Man on Aug 23, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i am talking about for the length of their contract… do you beleive that Lowe will exceed or meet his salary for the remainder of his contract… I don’t… KK’s contract is less expensive in the years to come (when compared to this year)… Lowe is obviously the better pitcher, but he’ll need to be mroe than twice as good as KK for the next 2 years.

Im not looking at this year’s value at all (or at least only using it a reference for future performance)

This year you are completely correct. Lowe will exceed his value and KK most likely will not, but I am not sure that will be true for the next two years

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 23, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do, I think the defense behind him will be improved and he hasn’t been pitching as well as he could/should this season. I think Lowe has leveled off as about a 15M dollar pitcher as opposed to being in the 20M range the last year or two, but that’s right where his contract lies. Kawakami seems about a 1.5 WAR guy or about a 6.75M dollar pitcher. If you prorate his bonus, he’ll be paid 7.3M per season for the next 2 yrs. Take into account that Lowe is as close to a lock as you can get to being injury free and Kawakami is not (fatigue mainly) and I think Lowe is safer

by McCann's the Man on Aug 23, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would argue Lowe is pretty lucky with his HR/FB %…although that may be balanced by a slightly higher BABIP…aand we should expect regression next year… in addition to regression due to gettin older as the years pass.

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 23, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree completely. Lowe may be old but he hasn’t thrown all that many pitches in his career, i’d venture to say Vazquez has thrown more. Lowe will continue to age well because like a jamie moyer he relies completely on contact and control, velocity and K’s are the things that go. Also think you meant decline not regression. Turner Field is the most favorable park to pitchers that Lowe has played in so I don’t buy into the HR/FB argument. And as you said the higher BABIP could mean that he’ll have a better year next year, in fact I think most statistical evidence points to him being stronger next year (especially since we won’t match up with the al east)

by McCann's the Man on Aug 23, 2009 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

turner is more favorable than Dodger Stadium?…I dont know so I’ll take ur word but its certainly not like its a bandbox or anything… I think his HR/FB rate is unsustainable and with a lower than avg GB rate he COULD be in trouble. He may right the ship and return his GB rate to a career avg number and than this is all moot. But if he has more difficulty inducing GB thna the HR rate will become a concern… Id bet on it

And ur right decline not regression… I misspoke..

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 23, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dodger plays more evenly than Turner, they’re fairly comparable but I’d say LA is a little more favorable to hitters. I think you’re right there are some stats where he’s overachieving but I think it will balance out with his underachieving areas leaving us with a good not great pitcher which is exactly what we thought we were getting.

by McCann's the Man on Aug 24, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but i dont know if thats what we paid for… he is what we thought he was (and we let him get away!!!!)

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 28, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/12/985970/why-javier-vazquez-is-baseballs

I agree, we need to remember the track record and give the man an extension

by McCann's the Man on Aug 23, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ya he has been really valauble over the years….despite the fact that his performance has never been as good as it has this season… so a contract extension, even with a dropout, is still probably not a bad idea

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 23, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs