Braves 2009 draft was out of character
by gondeee on Aug 19, 2009 9:34 PM EDT
in Minor League News
37 comments
We all knew it was a weird draft, but Keith Law ranks the Braves 2009 draft as the fifth worst in the majors last year:
Mike Minor at No. 7 overall was a huge reach, and Atlanta -- normally one of the strongest and shrewdest-drafting teams -- went ultra-conservative; the Braves didn't take a player under the age of 21 until the seventh round, and their second pick, David Hale, had lousy results in a bad conference the past two springs despite plus stuff. Atlanta, like the other four teams on this "worst" list, spent under $4 million in the top 10 rounds in a year in which the median figure was around $5 million, and after overpaying Minor, they didn't give anyone more than Hale's $405,000.
It was out of character for its lack of risk with the early picks as well as the lack of risk in the later picks -- selecting no one who turned into a late-round bonus baby. This is where the Braves have often gotten some of their better prospects. When they could draft-and-follow, they used those late rounds to get guys like Tommy Hanson, Tyler Flowers, and Cole Rohrbough. In recent years, with that option taken away, they haven't done much in the way of signing summer-follows in late rounds (the only one of note I can think of is J.J. Hoover, and he was a 10th-rounder).
For all of our complaints about this draft, I wonder how we'll look back on it in a few years. Most Braves drafts turn out pretty well, and there is some interesting talent in this year's class for Atlanta. We did do a good job of signing most of our top picks. Of the first 23 rounds, we failed to sign only our 6th and 15th rounders. Our 6th-round pick, Ryan Woolley may have been somewhat of a summer follow, but he did not do well and will return to UAB.
There is a lot to be hopeful for from guys like Harrilchak, RSF, and Masters. Hale and Minor should be ready quick and provide good depth for the pitching staff in the next few years. Still, there's not that glut of exciting young arms that are usually a staple of our drafts, and that is a bit disappointing.
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who cares about a scout rating a draft
i GUARANTEE no scout or blog writer ever said “Oh, the guy the Braves got in the 22nd round will be a future ace one day. That Tommy Hanson kid is money. Bank on it.”
I know its their job to annalyze drafts, trades etc. but in the end, everything plays out and we’ll know how the Braves really did in a few years.
7/24/2009 - "The Phillies are too far ahead in the NL East for the Braves to make a run." - Buster Olney
REMEMBER THAT BOYS.
by mvhsbball on Aug 19, 2009 9:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Because he knows what he’s talking about. The scouts job is to predict what people are doing based on what info he has now, not to be a judge in a few years; any schmuck can do that.
If it were a singular report I would brush it off, but its been the consensus that the Braves’ draft was very conservative, lacked in upside, and was filled with picks who wouldn’t break the budget. There very well may be a couple of good players in there, but the overall talent level and especially the high impact talent is highly lacking.
by soup du jour on Aug 19, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Be careful
i remember when Gondee interviewed Keith Law awhile back, and i called him out, and he got on here and kinda put me in my place. I think it was about his harsh view about how the Braves shouldn’t be messing with Glavine.
"Ohhhh Shit."-Bobby Cox, 3/28/09
by 10-4 on Aug 20, 2009 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha
Klaw does that on almost every SBN blog where he’s brought up. Either he’s got a good network of feelers out there, Google alerts on his name, and/or he actually likes baseball enough to do the rounds himself. I’ve seen him rebut here, and on the Padres, A’s and Cards sites in the past.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Aug 20, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keith Law is the best at what he does and is certainly the most knowledgeable baseball man at espn so i think you have to put some stock into what he says. Does that mean this draft class for us will without a doubt end up really bad? No but at this point in time it’s not a strong looking class for us though some of the guys have really produced so far
by McCann's the Man on Aug 20, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought there was a guy we got in round 22 this year who was supposed to go much higher (about round 5), cant remember his name though. Anybody remember?
by McCann's the Man on Aug 19, 2009 9:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that’s it, projected between 5-10 rounds. we got him in the 22nd
by McCann's the Man on Aug 19, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am dissapointed in the way the Braves ran this draft though, cutting the budget down to about 5 million. One of the last places we should be making budget cuts is the draft. It hurts even more to see Tyler Matzek sign for under 4 million and Max Stassi to sign for 1.5 million. I know Stassi was never on our radar, just a personal fave, but Matzek im sure was on our short list and I think they passed due to his contract demands. I do like the Hale, Mycal Jones, and RSF picks so far though
by McCann's the Man on Aug 19, 2009 9:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I get your point about Matzek
but he’s a perfect example of a dynamic high school arm who much could happen to between now and his major league ETA. The attrition rate for these guys is huge, and although Minor’s ceiling doesn’t compare to a Wheeler, Purke, or Matzek, the security he provides is certainly valuable, and the $1.5M disparity in signing bonuses isn’t chump change.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 19, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With our lack of need in the starting staff for the next 2-3 years, I would have much preferred the high upside. Matzek was the second best arm in this draft, behind strasburg, but we passed him up because of money. A guy like Minor makes sense if you have a hole in your current rotation and need someone who can progress quickly, we dont need that. 1.5M in baseball is just that, chump change. If they both hit their ceilings Matzek will be worth about 10-20M more over his first three pre arb years imo
by McCann's the Man on Aug 19, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they both hit their ceilings Matzek will be worth about 10-20M more over his first three pre arb years imo
This is begging the question. The whole crux of my argument is that Minor is much more likely to reach his ceiling than Matzek. Additionally, pitching prospects are highly fungible and always in demand so even if our rotation is set by the time Minor is ready to contribute, he’d still be a nice trade piece.
Also, Lowe, KK, Hanson, Jurrjens, Medlen, and Hudson and Vazquez (who probably won’t be around) are all righties. It’s nice to have a southpaw in the mix.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 19, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teheran is a southpaw, won’t progress as fast as Minor but I’ll take Teheran anyday. I think Minor’s value is entirely as a trade piece. Even if Minor is more likely to reach his ceiling, he’ll still be a 4 or 5 starter whereas Matzek has true no. 1 potential. I can understand taking the more polished product if upside is similar but they were in different leagues as far as upside
by McCann's the Man on Aug 19, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im pretty sure Teheran is a righty.
braves#1
by rockybull on Aug 19, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad, must be confusing him with someone. I don’t really keep track below AA so I tend to mess up these things.
by McCann's the Man on Aug 20, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya, Teheran is a righty so our top LHP prospects are probably Rohrbough, Devall, Stoval, Osuna and Ortegano in no particular order although I’m probably forgetting someone.
Anyway, I think you’re misunderestimating the value of a MORP (3-4 starter) lefty. I definitely wouldn’t have cried if we’d taken Matzek, but I think the disparity in upside is more than offset by Minor’s advantage in downside.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 20, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree, I think the Braves were in a perfect position to take a riskier pick in the first round given their organizational depth at most every position (outside of 3B and SS) and especially given their multitude of young arms in A ball. When you pick seventh, the highest you’ve picked in a long time and likely will pick for the forseeable future as well, I don’t want the safe route, I want the best prospect
by McCann's the Man on Aug 20, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or maybe
we were in perfect position to hedge our bets by taking out insurance on riskier strategies in previous drafts. Also, without another pick until 87th overall (If memory serves), safe is just fine with me.
I hear you, though. I didn’t like the pick at first and the Rockies showing that Matzek’s demands were ultimately just talk certainly validate your perspective.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 20, 2009 3:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah him settling for 3.9M is what hurt the most, if he got his 7M then i probably wouldn’t be complaining
by McCann's the Man on Aug 20, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
don't forget Zeke Spruill...
on your list of lefties, that is if he can ever pull him self above being just a GCL level pitcher.
by Mr. Sanchez on Aug 20, 2009 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ezekiel
definitely throws righthanded
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 20, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Time will tell...
I trust the Braves track record over Keith Law’s opinion. Vamos a ver. We’ll see…
Oh, Bobby.
by sdp on Aug 19, 2009 10:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Win some, lose some
highly unlikely that this class will compare to ‘05, and ’07 and maybe even ’08, but by taking more low risk guys, we’ve probably avoided another ‘06 which featured high upside guys who haven’t really sniffed their potential yet (Locke, Rohrbough, CoJo). It’s definitely too early to close the book on those guys, but there’s something to be said for playing it safe.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 19, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is pure speculation… But I wonder if the Braves saw that this draft lacked overall and thought it would be better to spend money on safe signable picks and roll the money not used into another part of the operation. Next year’s draft may be stronger or something… They certainly spent less and I just wonder what their reasoning for that was… Of course it could have been somethign as simple as a shitty economy… but its certainly interesting
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Aug 19, 2009 11:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can only echo what others have said.
Our draft was extremely conservative with a lot of lower-risk lower-reward picks that wouldn’t cost much. I do wonder how much direct influence Liberty Media had over the draft budget, because it really does look like we drafted dollar figures.
by FineHamAbounds on Aug 19, 2009 11:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that wouldn’t make a lot of sense, to blame Liberty as they presided over last year’s draft as well. And according to most we had a very good draft and spent a good amount of coin…
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Aug 19, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
last year they had more money, they’ve talked about cutting back payroll for next year and i guess that they cut into the draft budget as well. If we have a strict draft budget next year, I’ll be really pissed with us potentially having 5 picks in the first/comp round
by McCann's the Man on Aug 19, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My reasoning is that at the time of last year’s draft, the economy wasn’t a dumpster fire. I don’t know anything about Liberty Media’s finances, but I wouldn’t put it past them to cut funding to “nonessential holdings” in such an economic state.
by FineHamAbounds on Aug 20, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This also really impressed me.
Mat Gamel is way too cool for double consonants.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 20, 2009 12:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I know its really early but so far this year’s draft picks are performing quite well. Masters and Crim have been awesome though Crim may not be a legit prospect I think Masters could be something. Harrilchack looks like a fine OFer and leadoff man. RSF has hit the cover off the ball. Mycal Jones has flashed some potential though he has his flaws as well. The key will be Hale and Minor I’m sure. Hard to project Hale at this point but Minor could be a decent #3 SP. He seems to have a good work ethic. I’m not ecstatic about this draft by any means but i think it was deemed weak overall so I’m not that disappointed either.
by chopc on Aug 20, 2009 2:31 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Well said.
I think most of us, me included, were all disappointed at first. Then we saw what some of these guys can do. So, I’ve been very encouraged. It’ll be fun watching these guys progress.
Minor should be starting today or tomorrow right?
by Sparhawk on Aug 20, 2009 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just read somewhere else that it’s today. Nice!
by Sparhawk on Aug 20, 2009 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
most of the guys you talked about are old for their respective leagues and have more polish so they are performing well against guys that just haven’t caught up yet. If they continue with these results as they move up then we can deem this a decent draft
by McCann's the Man on Aug 20, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we had drafted a few more guys who really intrigued me later, I’d say everyone was over-highlighting the Minor pick, but it was basically a synopsis of our whole draft. There just aren’t very many picks from this year that I’m wild about. Hale has electric stuff, so I’m optimistic about him, but I’m not going to get excited until I see some real performance in full season ball. All those college hitters are performing well enough, but they’re also awfully old. Same can be said for people like Crim and Masters.
Two months after, I have to say it’s a pretty ho-hum draft, just seems like we reached for a lot of guys that are more filler talent than future big leaguer talent. I hope I’m wrong about all that. I just hope we don’t go so cheap next year when we may have multiple first round picks, and lots of early round choices.
I still think we’re going to have a pretty damn good system in the next couple years, but this year’s draft has very little to do with that.
The draft is not the place to play it cheap!
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
by timmy3 on Aug 20, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just get the vibe
That the team went with sure things. Not really anyone with out a chance to be at least average in the bigs.
I wanted us to take Matzek as well and was highly disappointed we didnt especially for what he signed for. I understand the argument that Minor has a higher chance of reaching his ceiling but at the same time with all of our pitching depth we could have afforded to take our time with Matzek and have him move slowly throughout the system like they are doing with Tehearan.
Can you guys imagine what it would have been like to have both of those guys reach the majors around the same time . . . that would be killer.
Like i said it just seems like the team took guys who they know will at least be solid in the Bigs and a few guys with a lot of upside
by drumzalicious on Aug 20, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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