Atlanta Braves pitcher Tommy Hanson and innings pitched

by gondeee on Aug 18, 2009 3:04 PM EDT Comment 23 comments

It occurred to me the other day, and I was reminded of it by this column in USA today, when should we be concerned about how many inning Tommy Hanson is throwing. The column points to the notion that young pitchers should not increase their workload by more than 50 innings over the previous season.

Hanson had 138 minor league innings last year, and already has 146 innings between the majors and minors this season, putting him 8 innings over last year's total with only 42 more innings to go this season (according to that magical rule of 50). Calculating that Hanson goes about 6 innings per start (damn good for a rookie, by the way), quick math tells us that Tommy has 7 starts left in him before he surpasses 50 innings over last year's total.

Counting forward, if Hanson makes all of his scheduled starts, he would have 8 more starts during the regular season. That's not too far over what his projected innings total should be. But there's more...

Now consider this; Hanson's 138 innings total between A and AA from last year is a bit misleading since he also pitched in the Arizona Fall League. He threw 28.2 innings in the AFL, which brings his 2008 total between two stops in the minor leagues and the AFL to 166.2 innings. With that more accurate 2008 innings total in mind, Hanson's 2009 workload has yet to match last year's, and with the plus-50 rule in place he could easily throw 200 innings without over extending himself.

I thought of two things that this could mean. (1) Perhaps the Braves should extend Hanson deeper into games. Of course, a lot of that has to do with Hanson using his pitches economically. (2) If we make the playoffs, Tommy should still have a fresh arm, and he could easily make five starts in the post-season without over-extending himself.

All of this brings back memories of Steve Avery. The Braves are often credited with killing the young arm of Avery by throwing him way too much in 1991 -- Bobby Cox even admits to this. Avery threw 171 innings in the minors in 1989, then 181.1 innings between the majors and minors in 1990, and then blew past the 50-inning increase by throwing 239.1 innings between the regular season and post-season in 1991.

This is certainly a cautionary tale for young pitchers, and one that the Braves, especially Bobby Cox, are very aware of. It seems that the entire way the Braves have brought Hanson along this year is one of continuous caution -- limiting his innings in the minors, and then monitoring his pitch count in the majors. There may come a time in an important game when they need him to extend himself and throw 8 or 9 innings, and by limiting those innings on the front end of the season, he should have enough left to go the extra mile if needed here at the end and still not throw more innings than he should this year.

It was mentioned on the boradcast the other day that Tim Hudson's return could also have an impact on Tommy Hanson. Far be it to imagine that Hudson could be any more effective than Hanson has been, so there's no reason then to replace him in the rotation, but Hudson could spell Hanson here and there, as well as spelling Kenshin Kawakami. There was some mention of a 6-man rotation, but I don't think the Braves are ready to open up that potential can of worms.

I didn't know whether to be concerned about Hanson's workload when I started this article, but now I feel pretty confident he can handle it without being over-used.

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I tend to shy away from blanket pronouncements about what a pitcher’s workload should be. There’s just too many other factors in play*. I do tend to believe that minor league innings should count less than major league innings for these processes; there’s more opportunity for a dominant minor league starter to coast against High-A or AA lineups that doesn’t exist in the major leagues.

I think the Braves should follow common sense practices to manage his workload; no abject abuse (+130 pitches, 30 pitch innings in the 6th, etc.), but not lifting him at 100 pitches if he’s cruising through 7.

the stress of the innings, the body type of the pitcher, age, etc.

by 17843 on Aug 18, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

MRI

probably has killed all sense of longevity and pushing through pain

by traphicg on Aug 18, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great Post

by blitzerlover on Aug 18, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His velocity seems down lately. I remember after the ASB rest he was touching 97.

If Dunn walks 30 fewer times, he'll drive in 15 more runs. This is thanks to the scientifically proven formula: RBI = (this is nonsense) (I made it all up).

Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.

by TradeAndruw on Aug 18, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

At first I thought it was cause he was sick, but I haven’t seen his FB increase in velocity. Seems to be hanging around 91 right now.

Maybe he is tiring.

by Sparhawk on Aug 18, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I seem to see him twitching a lot when he starts. Should we be concerned?

by Bmacbandwagon on Aug 18, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't remember 97.

I’m not saying he didn’t hit it, maybe he was amped up for a particular pitch. But watching yesterday’s game he was consistently mixing his fastball between 90 and 94, hitting 95 a couple times. He just likes to change the look of his fastball, is all. I don’t think he’s tired. One of the first things to go when you’re gassed is control, and he hasn’t walked a soul for a couple of starts +.

He’s fine, but I don’t want him overused, either. Steve Avery was my favorite pitcher before Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine (in THAT order), but his lack of longevity hurt. Let’s not repeat this, please, Bobby.

I think Huddy coming back will spell a start or two for each pitcher. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give each of the regular 5 a day off, while maybe giving KK and TH a couple extra days off. I personally like the 6 man rotation idea, but what do I know?

Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.

by Jareth Cutestory on Aug 18, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

6 man rotation

Why is it a can of worms? Makes sense to me, especially with a 40 man active rosters.

by ghost of tom thobe on Aug 18, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

for some reason or other, pitchers who are used to 5 days rest get thrown off sometimes by the extra day of rest.

by MacsGlasses on Aug 18, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mazzone called it "losing touch"

And explained that with too much rest, even Tom Glavine could hit 93 mph, but with almost no control.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Aug 18, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because a six man rotation takes starts from Vazquez and Jurrjens and gives them to Kawakami and Hudson.

by 17843 on Aug 18, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think that he is tiring at all. I think that he is being smarter about his velocity because he knows that he can’t simply blow hitters away all the time with his fastball if it’s not located. I wondered too about why he wasn’t throwing as hard as it was being reported he throws in the minors. But, I have seem him turn it up a notch. In the 2nd game he pitched against the Brewers I remember him getting a few up there to around 94-95 to Prince Fielder. I also remember him turning it up a notch to blow away some hitters in the Giants game where he struck out 11. I think he (maybe under the direction of Bobby) has toned down his velocity a bit because he has the other quality out pitches that don’t put as much strain on his arm as gunning a 97 mph fastball. IMO obviously…

by michaelcooksey on Aug 18, 2009 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He could be...

laying off on velocity in favor of control over the pitch. After all, he’s struck out 7 in yesterday’s game and then 9 in the game he pitched before that. Even more impressive, he hasn’t walked a single batter in either of his last 2 starts. I’m thinking he’s learning that it’s not necessarily how hard you throw so much as the location of the pitch. And if that’s the case, why fix what ain’t broken?
Or maybe he’s just saving the gas for a push into the postseason. I don’t know. To suggest that Hanson is tiring at this point with little more than a month to go and Bobby limiting his pitch count…I think that’s looking too much into an aspect. Just MO.

by Doni S on Aug 18, 2009 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

20-30 Innings

That’s the increase that I’ve often seen in articles about pitchers…don’t increase them more than 20-30 innings over the previous year. This would allow him to throw about 190 innings, leaving him with enough room to throw 5-6 innings over 8 starts. Then he would be ready to go a full year in 2010.

by Southern IN Chopper on Aug 18, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why not have Tim Hudson spot starts for Kawakami and Hanson every turn through the rotation? He can take Hanson’s spot one turn through the rotation, and then take Kawakami the next. It would work better than a 6-man rotation and allow Lowe, Jurrjens, and Vazquez to stay on schedule.

by BigG1392 on Aug 18, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i do like this idea.

by Zeus12888 on Aug 18, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Def a good point Gondee, hadnt thought about this. Just kinda enjoying watching him pitch.

But innings pitched is a very subjective term and doesnt necessarily correlate with pitches thrown, even though Tommy has had some long innings. I remember reading he hasnt had a 1-2-3 inning since he came up? Could be completely wrong, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on as we near the post-season (thats right, i said it)

I thought hurricane season was over........

by bravesguy311 on Aug 18, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Verducci's article

If I recall, talked about a 30-inning increase a year, until they peak. But I’m also in the camp that sometimes thinks pitchers are coddled too much, and I want to see some complete games again. I try not to look at the numbers and pitch counts as much as the quality of the pitches and the mechanics first. Let’s say Hanson gets to the 5th inning, and some base-runners get on with the heart of the opposition’s order coming up, and Hanson throws 22 fastballs while finishing out the inning, and comes back to the dugout sweating like a pig and gassed – just because his pitch count is still somewhere at like 73-78, and the 6-7-8 batters coming up, should he still be sent out?

What I didn’t like about yesterday’s game, was Hanson’s difficulty at shutting the door on the Dbacks. There’s something to be said about the type of gameplan a pitcher has at the start of a game, but once a cushion develops, the plan has changed. Obviously, in any rout, the starting pitcher is at least expected to go five innings to get the win, and Hanson showed a bit of difficulty in simply getting those last few outs. Mopping up, is apparently a skill in itself, too.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Aug 18, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think innings matter as much as # of pitches. Heck, one could theoretically throw 200 innings with only 600 pitches.

I think we need to ignore all “magic numbers” and just play it by ear. If McDowell sees something that concerns him, he can shut Hanson down and Hudson can step right in. We shouldn’t take one of our better arms off the table just because he is at a certain number of innings pitched, yet at the same time, we do not want to Mark Prior him.

I think every pitcher is unique in what they can do, and having said that, just let the kid throw. He is good at it and will be good at it for a long time.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 18, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That’s a great point. Number of pitches is a lot bigger deal than innings. Hanson has been on a tight pitch count all year at about 90 or 100 pitches so that not too many of his innings occur with a tired arm. If Hanson has what the scouts call a repeatable delivery then the magic number of 50 probably will not matter as much. Guys who don’t repeat their delivery are the one’s most succeptable to injury especially once they start getting tired.

The idea of KK and Hanson being spelled by Hudson is a good idea if Hudson is up to the task. We’ll see. Fatigue will definitely have a lot of say in what the Braves down the stretch rotation will look like and if they can manage a playoff push, the playoff rotation.

by crime_dog on Aug 18, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No need to worry...

keep letting him go 6 to 7 innings. We need him in the rotation especialy in the post season.

Roosy

by geapsquash on Aug 18, 2009 8:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How do we know?

I understand the concern for Tommy and understand if he needs a few starts off. But why do we automatically assume that Hudson is ready to start? He isn’t going deep into his rehab starts (which is common). He’s only 12 or 13 months removed from the surgery, which is pretty soon for Tommy John. In the past pitchers who have this ligament replacement surgery have not been able to pick up where they left off, which is understandable. I think if anyone needs a rest on certain occasions it’s the bullpen. Smoltz turned out to be a great closer after Tommy John, Hudson could too. Soriano, Gonzales, and Moylan look like they’re wearing down. I just don’t want us to ruin Tim by rushing him back in the rotation. If Tommy or Kenshin, or anybody in the rotation for that matter, needs a day off, then I’m sure Kris Medlen could give you some quality innings. IMO this is the best way to save the arms of everybody.

by BravesfanTyler on Aug 19, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting to note that Nolan Ryan has done away with pitch counts in the Rangers system unless there is a specific need for that pitcher. He believes that too many young arms arrive in the MLs without the stamina or mind set to pitch past 5/6 innings. He would like his guys to have pitched 170-200 innings in a minor league season or two to prepare them for a ML season. Of course, there are those who feel he is making a major mistake and will damage young arms. Warren Spahn always held that throwing built up the muscles and led to stronger pitchers. He never understood this need for pitch counts.

by braves99 on Aug 20, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs