Pitching Matcups for the Weekend

by fphjr01 on Aug 13, 2009 1:05 PM EDT

Everything that I've been able to find regarding Braves starters for the crucial series this weekend with the Phils has us starting, in order, Jurrjens, Kawakami, Vazquez. The Phillies, from what I can tell, plan to use Blanton, Hamels, and Happ, in that order.

Because the Braves have had 2 off days this week, we have the perfect opportunity to line up our rotation to maximum advantage, which I don't think we've done at the moment (JJ / Blanton, KK / Hamels, JV / Happ). What I would like to see is the following:

JJ vs. Blanton (JJ on 6 days rest)

JV vs. Hamels (JV on 6 days rest)

Hanson vs. Happ (Hanson on 5 days rest)

Obviously, this punts KK to the makeup game against Arizona on Monday, but setting up the rotation this way does not force anyone into less than 5 days rest, gives JJ and JV 6 days, nets a much improved matchup against Hamels, and puts Hanson in the series, who at this point I'd much rather see than KK. I'm not saying that KK has been bad of late -- I just like my chances with Hanson that much more. To be fair to KK, he does seem to up his game against premier opposition.

The Braves have 9 shots remaining left against the Phils and I think this is one of the times in the season where you take whatever advantage you can with rotation flexibility available to you. KK has been servicable for us this year, but Hamels owns the Braves, and I'd feel better about that game with the best starter we've got toeing the mound.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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But I don't see Bobby

doing anything to change what he is currently doing and he has the call in the end.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Aug 13, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions

He's changed the rotation plenty when it's made sense.

But with most all of them pitching well, I don’t know that it makes sense not to let them throw on regular rest.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Aug 13, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Bobby never had problems skipping his 5th starter back in the Maddux Glavine days-he wanted them to get as many starts as possible.

by Bronn on Aug 13, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

And it makes sense in this too...

with the way Vasquez, Jurrjens, and Hanson have been pitching this year, and Lowe starting to find his groove again, it makes sense to let those 4 throw as often as possible. Nothing against KK, but when those guys take the hill, it seems like the chances of winning are extremely strong.

by Mr. Sanchez on Aug 14, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions

oh good lord

KK has as many QS as those guys do. Ever heard of run support? KK isn’t the reason that the Braves have lost his starts. The Braves offense is the reason.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 14, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Bobby use to do this all the time w/ the big 3. Another plus is it gives KK some rest. He is used to a 6 man rotation so some rest here and there should keep him sharp. Could even throw Huddy in the mix every now and then to give a pitcher a breather.

Honestly though every time I look to see who’s pitching I have faith we will get 6 – 7 quality innings.

by Chesterhighwater on Aug 13, 2009 2:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Give me KK over the rookie any day. In two years, or maybe even next year, Hanson sounds great. But for now, I want KK on the mound.

Oh, and sometimes, pitchers do worse with more days of rest.

I look at the probable pitching matchups, and I cannot see how we would not be favored in every single one of them.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 13, 2009 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

Not in disagreement

But, some would argue that KK is sort of a rookie as well, what with his lack of exposure to MLB.

by rhinoskin on Aug 13, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure, he is a MLB rookie, but he has been playing professional baseball at a high level (arguably the second-best league in the world) for years, and has dominated it.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 13, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Justin – would you really take KK over the kid? I read the piece on KK that showed him to be a good #3 pitcher but over the kid? When I see Hanson take toe the rubber I fullyexpect a win. Its like the rest of the team has a swagg’r when he’s pitching.

by Chesterhighwater on Aug 13, 2009 2:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

"The kid"

He’s a kid.

by esadb on Aug 13, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes I would

Why? Because Hanson is a rookie and has been just as inconsistant as KK has been over the past month. I “expect” a win every time one of our pitchers takes the mound. I have more confidence in KK than I do Hanson this year.

Hanson is the future, there is no doubt about that. Hanson has been pitching pretty well too (especially for a rookie). But, I would rather have Kawakami on the mound in a big game than Hanson.

Hanson’s win totals have been pretty lucky. He has had massive run support as well as an enormous strand rate. KK has been almost the polar opposite – especially in the run support category.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 13, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand your point but I guess I prefer my chances w/ Tommy. Its a good problem to have.

by Chesterhighwater on Aug 13, 2009 5:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

it is a very good problem to have:

“What pitcher should we use? The rookie who has looked spectacular at times, or the #5 starter who has taken down some of the top pitchers in the game?”

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 13, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Hanson 1 WAR, Kawakami 1 WAR. Their value is exactly the same, but Hanson has matched KK in 44 innings less. Hanson is already better than Kawakami. Now I know WAR isn’t the end all be all, but I think it’s pretty clear that Hanson is our 4th best pitcher already and judging their values against each other is a good way of showing it, plus he’s been excellent this last month. This past month he’s logged more innings, given up the same number of ER, more K’s, and less BB’s. Hanson hasn’t been inconsistent at all this past month as you suggest, his only bad start would be against LA

by McCann's the Man on Aug 14, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions

also Hanson, 4.13 FIP. Kawakami, 4.58 FIP.

by McCann's the Man on Aug 14, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Hanson goes from 1 K to 11Ks in a game with everything in between. He has been inconsistant.

Hanson has also given up 2-4 runs every start. That is consistant, I admit.

KK has given up 0-6 runs every start…not very consistant.

Hanson also has more run support and a much higher strand rate.

Hanson is a rookie.

Give me KK.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 14, 2009 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Eh...

I can’t say that most would call Kawakami a favorite over Hamels. Kid’s pitching better lately.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Aug 14, 2009 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions

My main concern might seem trivial

But how much does it throw of Vazquez to have to go on 7 days rest. All pitchers have their routine between starts, and we’re going to see JV starting that Sunday game after not having pitched in a week. If it throws off something that’s been working for him, it will probably affect him early in the game.

Of course, if KK pitches anything like he did in his last start, we’re going to be in great shape for this series. He was simply phenomenal for us.

Bullpen is very well rested, as well. Soriano hasn’t gone since Sunday, Mike Gonzalez has only pitched in one game this week-in fact everyone but Moylan and Gonzalez will have at least 2 days’ rest. We’re ready for this showdown.

by Bronn on Aug 13, 2009 5:40 PM EDT reply actions

Rec'd

Just because this is the main topic on my mind right now.

Philadelphia’s win today puts us 5 back, so we could really use the sweep in this series to close the gap. Winning 2 only puts us at 4 back, so we’d still have a lot of ground to make up. After this series, Phillies get the D-Backs, Mets, and Pirates, so it’s going to gain ground before we see them again at the end of the month.

I feel like a sweep is possible-the way our pitchers are going right now, we have a chance in every game. The last bad pitching line was JJ’s last start, which hardly counts as poor because of the biggest nonsense umpiring I’ve ever seen from Eric Cooper. Without that gift out, JJ probably puts up a quality start. So ignoring that, the only poor outing by a starting pitcher this month was JJ’s home start against the Dodgers Sunday, August 2nd.

Small sample size fun for JJ-in his career against the Phillies (6 starts) he owns them. 2.27 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .186 BAA (.556 OPS against). Let’s hope we get this series started off right.

by Bronn on Aug 13, 2009 6:33 PM EDT reply actions

Hamels owns the Braves?

Dude, did you watch any of the games we’ve faced him in so far?

We’ve OWNED him

by Zeus12888 on Aug 13, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions

Don't let the facts get in the way ...

Cole’s last 11 starts vs. Braves:

3.64ERA, 2.64bb/9, 7.41k/9, averages about 6 2/3 IP per start. He’s allowed more than 3 runs in 3 of those 11 starts. That’s pretty good. You are remembering the 1 start 2 starts ago where he went 4IP and gave up 7 runs. Dude pitches the Braves tough.

by fphjr01 on Aug 13, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

KK vs Tommy Boy

Let the kid ride out this hot streak. No need to throw him against the Phillies lineup. I think he is up to the task, but so is KK. Also if we don’t throw Tommy now the Phillies won’t see him till the end of the month giving him the advantage in games that will hopefully be very meaningful.
How can you say Tommy has been lucky though? Only one of his wins has come with him giving up more than 3 earned runs. Stranding runners isn’t necessarily a sign of good fortune, but more often a sign of good pitching

by BravesfaninMontana on Aug 13, 2009 8:45 PM EDT reply actions

he is being lucky in the following terms… his ERA is about a full run below his FIP… his strand rate is above the league avg (while some players do maintain a higher strand rate.. his is probably too high).. He has jsut recently started gettin the Ks, that he needs to be truly effective… and he is also benefitting from some of the best run support on the team… which is purely a luck based thing (unless you feel Hanson really bolsterd our lineup outta the nine hole)

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 13, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate when people get defensive and thus disregard facts. Although I definitely do it also. Everyone who says this likes Hanson, he is just getting lucky. Fact.

by acie4mvp on Aug 13, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

i dont kno if u are agreein with me or not..either way …YOU WANNA TAKE THIS OUTSIDE /internet tough guy

I should mention that Hanson’s data is slightly skewed by his early starts as he has been much more dominant as of late.

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 14, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Wouldn't any pitcher's data be skewed by their worst starts?

Just checking.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Aug 15, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

yes but if we are trying to predict who is better for the next start…we wouldnt want data that is an outlier… i consider Hanson’s first couple major league starts outliers, based on the circumstances and his minor league track record…

The same can be said for KK but if you remove his earl starts his stats still look relatviely the same…

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 17, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

gracias, hermano.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 13, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I dont really get the post

I mean, i get what you want to happen, but it wont change anything. Bobby already announced the starters. JJ tomorrow, KK Saturday and Javy on Sunday.

It would kinda be like if i posted something like “Hit Chipper 5th this weekend” when its pretty much set.

7/24/2009 - "The Phillies are too far ahead in the NL East for the Braves to make a run." - Buster Olney

REMEMBER THAT BOYS.

by Scott Coleman on Aug 13, 2009 9:01 PM EDT reply actions

Only difference is

1) That’s crazy, why would do that. and
2) Considering all the rest involved, there’s no reason you can’t change your mind and flip the rotation around at this point.

It’s not likely, but Bobby did have a history of just running Maddux and Glavine out on 4 days rest every chance he got.

by Bronn on Aug 13, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I know, but its really not likely.

7/24/2009 - "The Phillies are too far ahead in the NL East for the Braves to make a run." - Buster Olney

REMEMBER THAT BOYS.

by Scott Coleman on Aug 13, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Good thinking

Lets never question the decisions the organization makes or is about to make, cause once they are made, it’s over! Oh, and there’s still time to change the rotation — I’ll give you an example: Chipper Jones was out of the lineup on Wed, heard about it, and GOT IT CHANGED.

by fphjr01 on Aug 14, 2009 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Toss up

If Kawakami is on, there’s just about no one I’d rather see in the majors take the ball for the Braves. He’s dominate when he goes after hitters instead of trying to nipple the corners.

by kalesi on Aug 14, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

uh huhuh

“nipple”

I thought hurricane season was over........

by bravesguy311 on Aug 14, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

That's how he throws his

“secret” pitch.

by Bronn on Aug 14, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

KK vs The Kid

No I’m not talking about pitching but a good ole fashioned back yard brawl. Who would you want to be on your side in a bar fight?

At first glance Hanson has the size on him but I think KK might be meaner. Plus there’s the chance he know some form of martial arts (yes I am stereotyping).

Best pitcher’s fight move?

A. Nolan Ryan’s headlock punch.
B. Kyle Farnworth’s impression of Goldberg.

by Chesterhighwater on Aug 14, 2009 11:26 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

The Porcello helmet dodge/takedown.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 14, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Pedro Martinez had the 70 year old man side-swipe throw down maneuver, and a midget friend

I thought hurricane season was over........

by bravesguy311 on Aug 14, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

B.

Farnsworth was straight up scary.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Aug 15, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Remind me

I know it wasn’t Hideo Nomo, but I feel like there was a pitcher who got thrown at, then turned around and drop kicked the catcher. After that, he charges the mound, arims a vicious punch at the pitcher that didn’t land (pitcher threw his glove at him, lol) and then he starts dancing around on the infield as if to ask “who’s next?” Then he turns around and takes down the third baseman.

Can’t remember who that was. I know I’ve seen on FSN’’s Best Damn “Most Outrageous” lists and stuff.

by Bronn on Aug 15, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Chan Ho Park

Royhobbs just did a fanshot about that…lol.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 15, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, that has to be one of the most intense MLB fight moves ever.

by Bronn on Aug 15, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions

i dont think that was Chan Ho Park.. and if it what Im thinking about it wasnt an Asian born player… he kicked the catcher over, and then bum rushed the pitcher… it was quite awesome… but it wasnt what RH was referring to… at least i dont think it was

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Aug 17, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Interestingly enough, the only game we won in this series was the game that KK pitched…not unrelated, but that was also the only game we scored 4 runs in.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Aug 17, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions