Apparently, John Smoltz has cleared waivers
I haven't weighed in on this yet. Don't know if I will. Don't know if I need to.
over 2 years ago
gondeee
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Now, which team has..
an exhausted bullpen.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson
Everyone keeps bringing up the bullpen thing, but who would really want this John Smoltz out of the pen. He’d only be useful in a total blowout situation. You couldn’t put him in a close game cause he’d either blow the lead or make the other team’s lead worse.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
Maybe..
His walk totals are low this year and his Ks are up. That is crucial for the bullpen. He’s just had alot of bad luck in a difficult place to pitch.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson
You dont give up 1.5:1 hits per inning and a run an inning due to bad luck. He’s been getting shelled, just b/c he has struck out a good number of people doesnt mean he’s getting the job done.
Eh
a .390 BABIP is unsustainable. The LD% is no different from normal, in fact, it’s below his career average. His GB% is down just a tad, but the HR/FB rate is just through the roof, and that’s largely beyond a pitcher’s control.
He’s probably not a 3.50 ERA guy, but he’s certainly better than an 8.33. I bet if he gets a chance, especially if it’s in the NL, he could post solid numbers for the rest of the year as either a starter or reliever.
Thank you +1
I was just trying to get those numbers
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson
BABIP isn’t always about bad luck or the defense behind a pitcher. It’s not as if Smoltz has been giving up a bunch of seeing-eye singles and bloopers. Batters are squaring up like never before on Smoltz. A .390 BABIP is perfectly sustainable if you’re not fooling anyone.
by paulyicecubes on Aug 11, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't agree
I know the above rationales are standard, but I do think a .390 BABIP is sustainable if a guy is getting hit hard. If you throwing batting practice pitches you’re going to get shelled no matter how many innings you throw. Remember, as a bullpen guy, he’s going to have fewer innings then when he was starting, so chances are that .390 is closer to his mean. The same goes along with the HR/FB rate. If you throw gopher balls, the balls get crushed and therefore you give up more homeruns per fly ball. That is under the pitcher’s control.
by ghost of tom thobe on Aug 11, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
.390 BABIP is sustainable if a guy is getting hit hard
Not unless it’s justified by an increase in LD% (Smoltz’s has dropped).
Remember, as a bullpen guy, he’s going to have fewer innings then when he was starting, so chances are that .390 is closer to his mean.
We’re using those numbers for their predictive value-the effect that future performance has on his season numbers is irrelevant.
If you throw gopher balls, the balls get crushed and therefore you give up more homeruns per fly ball. That is under the pitcher’s control.
You made that up. Three of Smoltz’s 8 home runs allowed were hit by lefties in parks with very shallow walls in RF (Fenway and Yankee). Neutral parks would probably have held them.
Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 11, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Second quote
Remember, as a bullpen guy, he’s going to have fewer innings then when he was starting, so chances are that .390 is closer to his mean
Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 11, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Fangraphs’ pitch values:
wFB wSL wSF
Career: 26.1 85.9 22.9
2009 -16.1 5.2 -3.2
That’s some significant decreases. His 2009 stats aren’t going to get better because he isn’t going to get better. He is well past prime and had major shoulder surgery. If he had the surgery two years ago and posted a decent year, then I would agree that he would come back up closer to his career (or even league) averages. But the fact is he has not pitched well on any level, minor or major leagues, since he had the surgery, so what proof do we have that his 42 year old arm with multiple surgeries is suddenly going to get better?
The comment that the .390 BABIP is going to decrease to some “mean” is a fallacy since there have to be terrible pitchers below the mean as there are great pitchers above the mean. Smoltz, at this point is his career, is a terrible pitcher.
You made that up. Three of Smoltz’s 8 home runs allowed were hit by lefties in parks with very shallow walls in RF (Fenway and Yankee). Neutral parks would probably have held them.
I didn’t make anything up. I used logic rather than particular stats. I don’t see stats backing up the above claim either (i.e., distance of home run or even direction of the homer—the balls could’ve went to dead center or right). Your claim makes sense, but it doesn’t refute my claim that he’s giving up my homers per fly ball because of poor pitching.
by ghost of tom thobe on Aug 11, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/event_hr.cgi?n1=cabreme01&t=b
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/event_hr.cgi?n1=markani01&t=b
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/event_hr.cgi?n1=damonjo01&t=b
Two were hit to straightaway right and one to right center.
he’s giving up my homers per fly ball because of poor pitching.
1) small sample size
2) Among those with the 10 highest HR/FB rates in the last three calendar years are Hamels, Harang, AJ Burnett, and Felix Hernandez, none of whom pitch poorly. There may be some kind of correlation between stuff and HR/FB, but the causal connection you’re implying is clearly fictitious.
Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 11, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
block quote fail
I suck at this
Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 11, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
False "depth"
Not entirely related to Smoltz being DFA’ed, but is anyone else tired of hearing about how “deep” such and such team’s starting rotation is, when in actuality, the back end is just filled with a bunch of no-longer-good big names? For example, if I created a team with:
Smoltz, Glavine, Pedro, Moyer, Penny, Diasuke, and Livan Hernandez — would I have a “deep” rotation, or a bunch of scrubs?
True depth is only achieved with quantity AND quality…
I know
I was looking at Sporting News Today online, and they had Todd Jones comment on the best rotations in baseball. It went like this:
Yankees’ top 3
Red Sox’s top 3
Cardinals’ top 4
Phillies’ top 2.5 (really!?)
Tigers’ top 4
Giants’ top 2.
No mention of the Braves, who have the third best ERA in the land. No mention of the Dodgers, who also have 4 really good starters.
Since when is having 2.5 good pitchers enough to get credit for a good rotation? The whole thing was pretty worthless.
This Todd Jones person....
…sounds like a stupid-head.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Masterson and Buchholz made up a big part of that depth. If you adjust for league (add .30 runs to NL teams), then the Red Sox pitching does lead the majors in FIP, edging out the Braves by 0.02 runs.
I always liked the Braves pitching better though because there are less question marks.
Since I'm non-sequitor-ing today
wrt FIP, and I haven’t checked lately, I’m wondering if anyone has looked into FIP vs. Jair Jurrjens. I understand that FIP = fielding independent pitching, i.e. what happens if there is no defense, but in reality, there is a defense out there. Non-Braves fans will probably like to chime in about how JJ continues to “outperform his peripherals” but at what point do we acknowledge / investigate / challenge the idea that maybe JJ really is this good, and its not because he’s lucky or uses magic, but is skilled at getting balls hit to someone with a glove.
I’d like to argue that he is pretty bad ass at this pitching thing, and after almost 2 years of it, doesn’t seem to be “regressing to the mean” in any way. Just a non-factual argument here. Appreciate someone with more time to at least shoot me straight.
Back to your point — the Sox edge out the Braves by 0.02 FIP-units, but is that true if JJ is teh awes0me, just not measured by FIP.
I'm no "expert"
But his season disparity of -0.69 ranks 16th lowest among qualified pitchers, behind Cain, Santana, and Carpenter among others.
His K and BB rates are almost identical to last season, where his ERA-FIP was actually +0.07, indicating that he had actually been slightly underperforming his peripherals.
What has changed is that he’s giving up more flyballs this season, effectively lowering his BAbip, and has also increased his strand rate. Since his career is still a very small sample size, I think it’s still too early to judge these skills as repeatable.
Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.
by VivaLosBravos on Aug 11, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
I caved and checked myself and was surprised that the difference was less than I seemed to remember. I’m probably biased against the start-of-season predictions saying “he’s headed for 4+ ERA land, just you wait, small sample size!”
Almost 300IP as a starter is probably crossing out of “SSS”, but I won’t argue that here. Thanks for checking though.
I wonder
When September rolls around, and if the Braves fall out of contention, and if Smoltz is still available, I wonder if the Braves could do the equivalent of a one-day contract or the 7-day contracts like they do in the NFL and NBA and let Smoltz come in and retire as his rightful place as a Brave? Sure, it’s a painful way to go out, but at least it’s something.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
I’d go along with that. Hell give Tommy Gun the same thing if we fall out of contention. In the mean time I don’t see us being involved with this waiver wire deal.
by Chesterhighwater on Aug 11, 2009 1:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
O good god. How about ‘do not want’ that picture. It’s Spatz…the psycho cat my dad used to have that attacked everyone, including me. Fueled my hatred of those nasty creatures (except the one I used to have that looks like your avatar). But still…that one. Ugh. I gotta go find a dog to pet.
Don't let one bad cat ruin it for the rest of them
I have 17 (yes, I said seventeen) cats, and they’re all pretty great. Some are better than others, of course, but a few of them are as sweet and needy as little children…and they still don’t pester me as much as my 6 (yes, I said six) dogs.
P.S.—My wife works at an emergency animal hospital.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
You just haven't met the right cat
But it does suck when you want to go on vacation.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
how about...
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
I Don't Like This
I don’t think that this would be a good idea. We don’t have enough time left in the season to give Smoltz the time to get things together. He would need some rehab time and probably some adjustment time coming into the bullpen and that’s time that we don’t have. There is only a little over a month and a half left in the season. That’s enough time to make a serious run, but not if we have a serious risk like this coming out of the pen in important situation. Smoltz could have stayed in Atlanta and gotten one more start, but instead he chose to go to Boston for $$$Greener pastures…He made $14 million last year and made 5 starts and 1 relief appearance. I know he had taken more money in the past but last year he didn’t live up to his end of the bargain, so he could have been a little more open to comprimise…Thanks for all you did for Atlanta John Smoltz. You are my favorite pitcher out of the big 3 but its time to hang it up and make amens…
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