Neyer: "I wouldn't give up on the Braves yet."

Neyer argues that recent moves (Prado over Johnson, Diaz getting some priority over Frenchy) are plugging holes in the Braves struggling lineup.

A tad optimistic, if you ask me.

8 months ago kasas 18 comments 0 recs |

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For too much of this season, the Braves had five holes in the lineup: Casey Kotchman, Kelly Johnson, and the entire outfield: Garret Anderson, Jordan Schafer, and Francoeur.

Schafer’s now back in the minors (and struggling), having been replaced by Nate McLouth. Johnson’s been replaced at second base by Martin Prado, who’s a superior player. And now Francoeur seems to have been replaced by Matt Diaz, also a superior player. So now, somewhat suddenly, the Braves have only two holes in the lineup, and there’s at least some reason to believe that Anderson and Kotchman will play better in the second half of the season

First off, Kotchman has not been a hole in the lineup. He has been pretty solid. He lacks power, sure, but we all knew that.

Second, FUGA has not been a hole for the better part of the second quarter of the season. He has been surprisingly solid at the plate.

Third, Logan isn’t “struggling” in the minors – he is recovering. There is a huge difference.

Fourth, Prado is not a “superior” player to KJ. Sure, he is on a good run right now, but historically and statistically, KJ has been much better than Prado – especially on the defensive side of the ball.

But yes, Diaz over FYF is an upgrade. However, look at the Braves’ record with FYF out of the lineup and Diaz in his place…surprisingly, it doesn’t make a difference who the RF is, in terms of wins and losses.

Neyer is getting to the point that Olney is already at…in fact, the only baseball writers I even read anymore are K Law and Stark.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 8, 2009 10:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kotchman has not been a hole in the lineup

Define a “solid” first baseman. I’m not buying a .724 (career .745) OPS at first base, which is below league average at any position. I do admit that he’s not making much money; 2.8 million is reasonable for a player contributing approximately half a win per season. But that doesn’t mean he can hit.

But yes, Diaz over FYF is an upgrade. However, look at the Braves’ record with FYF out of the lineup and Diaz in his place…surprisingly, it doesn’t make a difference who the RF is, in terms of wins and losses.

We’ve only played 6 games with Diaz starting in right field; that sample size is microscopic. Diaz has been a significantly better hitter this year (OPS of .854 to .621) and is a better choice even if he regresses a bit.

by kasas on Jul 8, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sample size

it goes both ways…saying that Diaz has been an upgrade or that Prado has been an upgrade after only a couple of games is a bit premature.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 8, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but over the season, Diaz is producing at a much higher level than Francoeur, and his defense is also much better (albeit in the other corner). Saying Diaz isn’t an upgrade because he hasn’t been starting every day is inane, because he IS an upgrade, he just hasn’t gotten the full chance to show that he is.

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by bigjoe on Jul 8, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this

by HEYJUDE on Jul 9, 2009 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don’t get me wrong, I think that Diaz is a MUCH better option than FYF. But with the small sample size that Neyer is using in this article, Diaz over FYF doesn’t support his argument. That is all I am saying. I don’t think there is any question that ANYONE other than FYF is an upgrade.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 9, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, in Prado’s week as a starter, he has as many hits (18) as Johnson had since May 24. Come on now.

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by bigjoe on Jul 8, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this

by HEYJUDE on Jul 9, 2009 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look, you of all people know that Prado’s career numbers suggest he is on a really hot streak right now. This is not the production that we can nor should we expect from him night in and night out. Prado is as hot right now as KJ is cold. Benching KJ was the right move (you gotta go with the hot hand), but the numbers indicate that given equal opportunities, by season’s end KJ has been and will be the better player.

I really dig the fact that Prado is raking like he is right now, but I think we all need to be prepared for the inevitable regression.

If he can sustain this for a couple more games, I may start to believe, but for now, I will just sit back and enjoy the pleasant surprise that he has been lately.

Having said that, didn’t Chipper say last year that Prado has the best swing on the team?

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 9, 2009 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do agree

That Prado is probably not as good a hitter as KJ. But since KJ is in a major slump (be it mechanical or mental) and Prado is hot, we really should start Prado.

by kasas on Jul 9, 2009 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with this – with the condition that once KJ gets whatever piece of his mojo that is missing back, the starting job is his again.,,unless Prado is just becoming a freak right before our very eyes.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 9, 2009 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn’t be opposed to a platoon at 2B between Kelly and Prado if Prado comes back to earth some and Johnson starts playing a modicum of baseball.

by soup du jour on Jul 9, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Apparently he is dealing with a wrist issue similar to one he had last year...

and the treatment they’re trying (cortizone) worked wonders then. (so said Chipper, anyway.)

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 12, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prado’s on fire right now, Kelly’s the polar opposite. To keep trotting out the frigid player is just stupid. I didn’t hear you complaining when Infante was getting starts back in May.

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by bigjoe on Jul 9, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not complaining that he is starting right now. In fact, I have said that I support it. I am just not sold that he is this good. Yes, playing Prado is the right move to make. KJ was a black hole of suck for much of this year.

I am simply saying that I do not believe that he will keep this up, and for Neyer to call him the answer after just a week and a half is premature. If Prado really is this good and just now showing it to the world, I will be thrilled.

I just think that he is as hot as KJ is cold and the true players both lie somewhere in the middle of the two extremes with the advantage over the long haul going to KJ.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 10, 2009 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs