Chipper Jones & 500 HRs

by NCChopper on Jul 4, 2009 11:42 AM EDT Comment 24 comments

Having coffee with hubby this morning discussing the Braves and our conversation turned to Chipper Jones specifically. We're wondering if he will play long enough (and stay healthy enough) to reach the 500 mark in HRs before his playing days are over.

I did a quick search to see if it had been discussed here before and after not finding a dedicated thread to it, he suggested I take the opportunity to post my very first FanPost and ask the TC community how they feel about it.

I looked up Chipper's stats on BaseballReference.com and see that as of today, (at 37 yrs of age) he stands at 417 HRs. We're optimistic and think if he stays somewhat healthy (those dogs of his behave) he can do it. What do you think?

I'd like to add that I personally hope to see him do it in an Atlanta Braves uniform.

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He signed a three year extension?

So let’s assume he gets to 20 this year. That puts him at 428. That means that he needs to hit 24 for the next three seasons.

The main problem with this is his change in approach over the past two years. He is hitting more for average than power. The power is there, but he will sacrifice that for average. If he were in the AL, he could easily do it being a DH the last couple of years (less wear and tear on the body). But if he goes to the AL, I would cry!

If McCann stays behind him or they get a real cleanup hitter (no offense to McCann, but he should probably be hitting fifth), then Chipper will continue to see pitches and hopefull hit 500. I hope so. He is already a lock for the hall, but that would be icing on the cake!

After all of my rambling – Yes, he can do it, provided he can stay healthy enough to play 90% of the season for the next three years!

by SupermanWearsBobSander'sPJs on Jul 4, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Chipper's GP stats

Over the last 5 years are: most games played – 137, average / season – 124. He has hit 25.6 HR’s per “season” in those years. Thus, he’d have to experience no decline whatsoever both in games played and HR rate in the next three years to maintain a pace to get to 500.

Chipper has played 73 of the 82 games thus far, 90% of the total games — way ahead of the 76.5% pace of previous years. He’s on pace for 146 games and 18HR’s.

I don’t see it without a 4th season at the end of the new contract extension.

by fphjr01 on Jul 7, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that to really have a chance at 500, he’d have to move to the AL and DH for a few years after this current 3-year contract is up. This would allow him to play until 42 or 43, and he’d almost definitely be able to reach the mark. Not that it really matters, as he’s a lock for the Hall, but it would be cool to see.

by drdonkeypunch on Jul 4, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I just don’t see it happening, unless he scrapes his way to it with a couple of extra years after this contract is up. but that said if we are talking about the HOF he doesn’t need 500 to get to the hall.

by yondaime4 on Jul 4, 2009 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree. Thought about it many times, but it just doesn’t seem likely that he’ll hit 80+ more homers over the next few years.

"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."

by Bravely going forward on Jul 4, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same here, Chipper has said he would like to retire a Brave. That being said, I don’t think he has any interest in going to an AL team and batting DH. I just don’t think he will stay healthy enough each year to get the HR’s he would need.

Congrats on your first post! I think this was a great topic to discuss.

by HEYJUDE on Jul 5, 2009 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Chipper has also said that he hates DH-ing. I could be completely incorrect on that on though…

Oh, and ladies, feel free to post whatever you like. As long as you don’t start calling yourselves “BravesBabe” and posting ridiculously long fanposts where you are writing and trying to be funny, I will have absolutely no problem with it!

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 5, 2009 3:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

He says it takes him out of the game.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 13, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I find it hard to see Chipper going to the AL and becoming a DH as well. I even wonder if he’ll continue to play if he’s no longer able be effective at 3rd base.

Like Superman said above, his hitting style has been more for average than power for a while – but just maybe if we can get him some help with another dependable bat on the team, he may be able to focus back on power hitting again and reach that mark eventually.

I know it’s a long shot, but I’m rooting for him to do it as a cherry on top of the career stats he’s accumulated already.

"Well behaved women rarely make history" ~ Laurel Ulrich

by NCChopper on Jul 5, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I could see him thinking about a move to 1st if it would legitimately make us better.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 13, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I pledge aliegence to the Braves...oh its just business

If anything this past offseason/begining…has taught us that the Braves are about business now…bye Smoltz, bye Glavin….So, if say, if we were floundering come end of July do you not think that an AL (or NL) team came calling for Chipper we would not consider it? Any more speak would be rosterbation on my part…so, I would say that if he stays with us…till he was 40 he would have 499…last day of the season….and a sell out crowd shows up chanting..Chipper…Chipper…Chipper! (overly dramatic but I am prone to that)

by bravestatoo on Jul 6, 2009 2:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The difference

in Smoltz and Glavine leaving and Chipper staying is that they were both over 40, coming off of major arm surgeries. Chipper, while oft-injured, has yet to have a major surgery, and unlike Smoltz or Glavine will not miss nearly or over half of the season due to injury.

The Braves FO did not think that Smoltz and Glavine would make the team better, that is why they were let go. I’d be really surprised if that same conclusion were ever drawn about Chipper.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 6, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

apples and oranges there. Glavine couldn’t top 80 mph. on the radar gun. Smoltz only just started pitching again and the Braves couldn’t afford to pay him $5 million not to pitch. Chipper just signed an extension.

Would the front office consider it. Yeah, maybe if the offer were ridiculous, but Chipper also has 10-5 rights. The Front office knows that the likelyhood of getting a trade done is likely 0.0% for that reason anyways, so in all likelyhood they wouldn’t eve listen.

by Andy Braves Fan on Jul 6, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok I'm getting sick of

people comparing Chipper to Glavine and Smoltz. Glavine left us for the mets for more money, Chipper takes less money. Smoltz was offered a very respectable contract this offseason but chose to go to Boston because of more guaranteed money. They both left for financial reasons whereas Chipper takes paycuts and signs extensions.

The only decisions the FO has made here were signing Chipper farther, and cutting Glavine, but in the end, we owed Glavine nothing considering what he did to us with the Mets, oh and by the way, we offered Glavine a contract that year too.

So please, stop talking like they’re anything alike, Glavine and Smoltz care about money, Chipper cares about the Braves, they’re completely different, and you make yourself look ever so ignorant whenever you claim they’re equal.

by BravesRaleigh on Jul 6, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not to mention

that he indicates the organization turned its back on those two guys instead of vice versa.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 6, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well throw up a little more

Because that was chipper’s words! I like him as much but I could critisise him and you would throw apples or oranges at me I presume?
1. injury prone…2. Does not fully assume leadership role..(only spot moments)
His value is still up there and his team is aware that after this year it dips a little bit more…face it we are a small market team again…this is what small market teams do!
In conclusion,If he is going to get to 500 Hrs (you know he keeps that stat in the back of his mind..I bet he knows Mik’s number) he knows he must spend his last few years at an AL club and if we are not within 10 by Jul 30th. The Braves will be dealing !…I will be mad…pissed…tore up! but it is only business!

by bravestatoo on Jul 7, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They will not deal Chipper.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 7, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope they don’t.

"Well behaved women rarely make history" ~ Laurel Ulrich

by NCChopper on Jul 7, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Although Smoltz has tried to float that he took pay cuts to stay himself of late.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 13, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, my hopes were dampened a bit last night when I heard Joe say on air that Chipper had hit only 1 homer in his last 94 at bats.

I sank a little in my chair when I heard that.

He has hit only 9 so far this year.
This is quite an interesting chart of all his homers:

—> Chipper Jones Career Home Runs Log

"Well behaved women rarely make history" ~ Laurel Ulrich

by NCChopper on Jul 6, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good topic

I don’t think that he will make it to 500, but hell, you never know. Folks were saying he was done just a few years ago, and then last year he was batting champ. I personally didn’t think that he would ever be batting champ (not because he wasn’t good enough, but he wasn’t consistently a .330 hitter either). Maybe he gets a power surge, it isn’t out of the question…

by Andy Braves Fan on Jul 6, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I feel Chipper will remain a Brave until he retires, whether it’s as a player, coach or maybe even as manager.

by HEYJUDE on Jul 10, 2009 2:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I so hope you’re right HJ.

When you think of Chipper Jones, you just automatically think The Braves. It would be hard for me to imagine him anywhere else.

I think he has a lot to offer this organization after his playing days are over and I hope they both take advantage of that.

"Well behaved women rarely make history" ~ Laurel Ulrich

by NCChopper on Jul 10, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs