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Status Update: Braves Making a Run!

Hey guys and gals!  I apologize for taking my sweet time between posts, but I guess that's just my way.  Anyway, I thought it'd be a good time to look back at my last piece and give it a quick review.  It was roughly three weeks ago that I published Five Reasons the Braves are Primed for a Good Run and it's looking better by the day.  Follow me below the fold for some positive vibes and a slight bit of contortionism as I pat myself on the back a bit.

Star-divide

On July 2nd, I stated five reasons why I felt the Braves might be in for the better things to come that we fans are always looking for around the proverbial corner.  Since then, they've each rung true and we've seen the team reap the expected benefits.  Let's take a look at each of them individually, shall we?

  1. Nate McLouth:  our new center fielder has played in every single game since my previous post and, while he hasn't been spectacular, he's still represented a significant upgrade at the position.  Following nearly three full months worth of anemic production from CF (a sub-.600 OPS, to be more precise) his .254/.336/.450 line looks downright Pujolsian instead.  He's batting a bit out of his comfort zone as our lead off man - and we've seen what that can do to some otherwise solid hitters - but he's still been effective and he might be expected to improve a bit from here on out.  His defense is rough in center, but his bat has been a treat.
  2. Garret Anderson:  the bargain-bin free agent acquisition that had been so disappointing early on has truly turned it around in a rather impressive manner.  His traditional slow start was augmented by his spring training injury, but his second half surge seems to be equally magnified this year.  After our left fielders posted a pathetic .634 OPS through June (of which Anderson was partly responsible for) he's been on fire in July with a .300/.348/.517 line.  Though there is some reason to believe that his run has been fueled by some good luck proportional to the bad luck that held him down earlier, that .865 OPS is almost directly in line with his .851 OPS following the All-Star Break in the 2006-2008 time frame.  I think we're all sick and tired of the term "professional hitter", but he's certainly shaping up to be a good one any way you want to say it.
  3. Martin Prado:  he's yet to win over some of our membership here, but you can't fault him for his effort in doing so.  He somehow surpassed his .922 June OPS by pushing that figure up to .930 in July.  And while I typically steer clear of defensive metrics, I do believe his UZR/150 indicates that he'snot hurting the team at all in the field at second base.  Under any circumstances, those numbers would bring a smile to any fan base's collective face, but the fact that he replaced the struggling Kelly Johnson and his .637 OPS makes it all the sweeter.  Kelly's healthy now and could be given the opportunity to reclaim some of his lost playing time, but Martin's versatility assures him plenty of opportunities to continue to allow his play do the talking for him.  He's probably the single biggest surprise on this team - if not in the division, league or all of baseball - this year.
  4. The Rotation:  JavyVazquez has been downright unfair through three July starts (1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 in 19.1 IP).  Jair Jurrjenshas been to the mound five times this month andsomehow just about as successful (1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 5.5 K/9 in 32.2 IP).  Tommy Hanson continues to live up to the hype (3.79 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 in 19 IP) with increasing dominance in his three starts in July.  Kenshin Kawakamicontinues to plug along (3.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 4.9 K/9 in 22 IP) with consistently solid starts up to four this month.  Similarly, Derek Lowe has battled through some struggles andarrived at decent totals (3.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 4.6 K/9 in 23.1 IP) with four starts.  Basically, we have three aces and to #3's; that may not be the "five of a kind, aces" that I had foreseen, but a full house with aces up ain't bad!
  5. The Bullpen:  Above I said that Martin Prado was the Braves' revelation of the year, but now I have to admit that Eric O'Flahertyis giving him a run for his money; he has been utterly dominant in July.  Boone Logan has given us a second effective lefty out of the 'pen this month.  Rafael Soriano remains an exceptional closer and it appears he's finally - and deservedly so - consolidated his hold on that role.  Mike Gonzalez, Peter Moylan, Manny Acosta, Kris Medlen and the Luis Valdez Experiment have been quite underwhelming in July, but (outside of Acosta and Valdez) they haven't been catastrophic.  Some of our more effective relief arms have been worked pretty hard so far, so a slow down may well be expected, but typical variance with these guys may lead to others stepping back up to carry the load.  There isn't a team in major league baseball that's perfectly satisfied with their bullpen, but I'm pleased with the back end of ours.

Well, there you have it: five reasons why we have now already been on a good run and why I believe the best is yet to come.  This season is the first in a while that I've truly enjoyed following this team, at least since some fine-tuning was done a month or two back.  Needless to say, Frank Wren has rewarded my faith in him with a team that I actually like.  These guys have good chemistry and it's showing dividends in the win-loss columns.  They have a ways to go before they get to where we all want them to be, but I believe in them and that's certainly not just n faith at this point. 

As always, I welcome your views, comments, recs, etc.  Tell me what I've overstated, overlooked or simply chime in with your two cents.  I hope reading this gives you all an extra little boost in your cheering as we move forward together.  Thank you very much for your time and attention.  Go Braves!

Poll
Do you believe the run tjhat the Braves are currently on will continue to carry them into a playoff birth?
Yes - Octooobeeer... we'rrreee baaaaack!
129 votes
No - Our long "December" continues...
37 votes

166 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

Comment 49 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Apologies.

Once again, I’ve published something that is largely stream of conciousness and this time in the midst of an all-nighter! I apologize for any typos, gramatical horrors and even the occasional mistake of fact. Have at it!

"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999

by ejruiz on Jul 24, 2009 8:34 AM EDT reply actions  

Stream of consciousness notwithstanding...

Nice work. Clear, concise, complete (just like your 3rd grade teacher asked.) Rec’d.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 24, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's pretty much what we are all thinking

Looking good for now. It looks as if the Braves will at least make a run at October, which is good news.

by Andy Braves Fan on Jul 24, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions  

I said i would hold my excitement until they got a couple games over .500, so now i’m officially pumped. This team has looked awesome in their march to get over. 500, so, yesterdays crap not withstanding, i think we’ve got as good a shot as anyone to get the wild card at least, if not the east.

"Ohhhh Shit."-Bobby Cox, 3/28/09

by 10-4 on Jul 24, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions  

Holding my breath, hoping for the best

I’m not going to say what this second-half positive winning trend is sort of reminding me of early on, but I’m sure most everyone here doesn’t need any clues to realize what I’m alluding to. That being said, much like a no-hitter in the 7th, I’m not saying it, because I’m superstitious like that, but believe me, I’m a little excited about it, nonetheless.

I’m still very weary about some of the bullpen issues, but to expect excellence day in and day out is absurd, so I’m sure some occasional hang-ups like the loss to the Giants are bound to happen from time to time. I guess the key is to limit how many volatile relievers appear in the games, and as long as we keep getting the aforementioned performance out of guys like Vazquez, Jurrjens, and Hanson, it will lessen the odds.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Jul 24, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions  

If only we had finished last (worst) last year, right? Sure seemed at the time like we were bad enough to justify last. Jurrjens, Hampton, Campillo, Reyes, Morton. Ugh. Ugh. Sheesh.

I’m not even worried about the pitching holding up. I’m confident that the three starters you mentioned will maintain sub 3.5 ERAs and that Lowe and Kawakami can keep on pumping out some quality starts. What I’m concerned about is the offense. They’re obviously not going to score 7 runs a game, but I don’t think they have the big bopper in the middle we really need. Yunel isn’t going to OPS 1100 forever, right?

by Weldon on Jul 24, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

have to agree on all points.

"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."

by Bravely going forward on Jul 24, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very nice, i completely agree with all of this. I figured Anderson was a good signin when we signed him and he has certainly proved that. I wasn’t expectin MVP or great numbers from him i was expectant about what he is doin now or a tad worst, so no complaints here from me. I just hope this team can stay consistent, we have a great team, consistency is the key with us.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jul 24, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Somebody ELSE needs to sweep the Thillies. We are just as good as them, and there is no reason why they should run away with it. Regardless of the series last year……they played the Rays.

I am all for the Phillies getting pwned. This insane run they are making will not last. It’s aggravating.

(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)
"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews ~ RIP Roi

by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jul 24, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

but what im sayin is we gotta take care of business also. We gotta beat bad teams and not lose 2 of 3 to some of them. As long as we stay consistent and win series after series then we will be fine, we HAVE to beat bad teams thats bottom line and sometimes we dropped the ball in that area from time to time this year.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jul 24, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

For the next three days, I’m going to be a cards fan

by grantparkbrave on Jul 24, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but

that could ultimately screw us over for the wild card.

Not an enviable position.

Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.

by VivaLosBravos on Jul 24, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gotta hope

that both teams beat the crap out of each other’s pitching staffs, kill the bullpens. Weakens both for the WC/division run.

by Andy Braves Fan on Jul 24, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

indeed.

Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.

by VivaLosBravos on Jul 24, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

You've got to be kidding
I wasn’t expectin MVP or great numbers from him i was expectant about what he is doin now or a tad worst
I figured Anderson was a good signin when we signed him and he has certainly proved that.

So you expected him to have negative value on the season but that is somehow a “good signing”? Give me a break.

You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis

by scstrato on Jul 24, 2009 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting

I didn’t know Anderson was exactly at replacement level.

Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.

by VivaLosBravos on Jul 25, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well I'll be ...

So you expected him to provide no value this seaon …
/fixed?

You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis

by scstrato on Jul 25, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ya lost me.

Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.

by VivaLosBravos on Jul 26, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

It was my pitiful attempt at humor

I didn’t realize he had clawed his way back to replacement level either.

You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis

by scstrato on Jul 26, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

You give me a break

Who else was out there at the time that we could have gotten? Dunn was gone, it was either GA or Griffey basically. I dont see how its a terrible signin so you give me a break. I think GA is an ok player. Maybe you should apply to try to be GM of the Braves.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jul 25, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry man

but you should expect someone to call you out when you make a silly blanket statement like that. So defend your point:

I figured Anderson was a good signin when we signed him and he has certainly proved that.

1. Your eyes say he is hitting good while my eyes say he is slow, doesn’t hustle, plays atrocious defense and won’t take a walk. Care to guess which of our opinions is supported by evidence?
2. Just because GA and Grif were the only two FA’s left on our board does not make him a “Good” signing. You can’t look at this as a “one or the other” scenario, both were bad options. It’s arguable whether or not we would have gotten similar production out of a Blanco/Diaz platoon in left and that would have saved us roughly 2 million dollars.
3. LAA basically told GA to go take a hike preferring instead to sign Juan Rivera to a three year deal. Care to guess who has been the better player this year? Tougher question, can you guess which player, even if he doesn’t play another game for three years, has provided enough value to his team this year alone to justify his contract for all three years?

Finally – the big difference between you and I, at least from my perspective, is I know i’m not smart enough to be a major league GM but I am smart enough to know that GA has not earned his contract. AND I didn’t have to stay at a Holiday Inn Express to figure that one out.

You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis

by scstrato on Jul 25, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Give me a break. He signed a 1 year $2 million deal. It’s not like that contract is some Vernon Wells nightmare

We’re getting exactly what we expected from him – at a very fair price for 15 year veteran with nearly 2500 hits.

by DCP916 on Jul 25, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was going to say

FYI, he has barely been worth 10% of $1 million yet this year. /fixed

You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis

by scstrato on Jul 26, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I could swear when I was writing my column last night, I saw 0.9…whoops. His slash stats are nearly identical to last season, but most of his value last year was derived from his shockingly good defense. This time? Not so much.

by bigjoe on Jul 26, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

2500 hits > Everything Else

"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09

by buzzdeadwax on Jul 27, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

1. He is hitting good since like June actually so thats a fact. He is slow, he does hustle some but i mean alot of players dont hustle so its not like he is the only one, he does play really bad defense, and doesn’t take a walk much at all.

2. I seriously doubt that Blanco would be doin as good as GA. Better D in LF obviously and a better OBP thats about it for Blanco. I would rather have the vet in GA that has a championship ring and is a better overall hitter than Blanco but hey thats just me and obviously Braves FO felt the same way at the time.

3. Well thing is the Braves didn’t have as good of a OF as Rivera(hell most of us Braves fans WANTED Rivera lol) so yeah i can understand why they told GA to take a hike basically. “Tougher question, can you guess which player, even if he doesn’t play another game for three years, has provided enough value to his team this year alone to justify his contract for all three years?”

Really now? So if he tanks the rest of this year and does absolutely nothin the next 2 years then he was a $12.75 million dollar man and actually worth that? Really now? Very interesting.

So GA hasn’t earned his contract huh? You know he can get in line with a hell of alot of other guys in MLB that isn’t worth their contracts cause its alot to count i guarantee you that. Kelly Johnson is in that line as well ;) Greg Norton isn’t worth his $800K either. Since June though i say GA has been worth a good bit he has been impressive since then i think that right there makes his $2.5M worth it but hey thats just my opinion as well. Nobody is wrong in this, you just think your way, im gonna think my way and i DONT have to stay at a Holliday Inn or nowhere to figure that im not gonna change my opinion on GA.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jul 26, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Among the left fielders that have been worth more than Garret Anderson this year…

Seth Smith
Chris Dickerson
Laynce Nix
Skip Schumaker (who isn’t even an outfielder anymore)
Eric Byrnes (who can’t walk down a flight of stairs without tearing a tendon)
Chase Headley (who strikes out 27% of the time)
Gerardo Parra (.303 wOBA)

And then theres Garret Anderson, right near the bottom…slightly ahead of Ben Francisco, Daniel Murphy (also not an outfielder anymore), Jeremy Hermida, and Delmon Young among others.

by bigjoe on Jul 26, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I also said since June he has been worth it, the guy has been very good since June. Im not sittin here sayin he is great but damn sayin he has been shitty since June and hasn’t done nothin and isn’t worth hardly nothin is very stupid to say. With the bat SINCE June has been worth his contract to me. Im not gonna change your opinion and your certainly not gonna change my opinion on this so we are gonna have to just agree to disagree.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jul 26, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep

By assigning a dollar value to wins above replacement level:

 - Juan Rivera in 301 AB’s / 2.9 WAR, which roughly equates to $12.9 Million in salary
 - Garrett Anderson in 263 AB’s / 0.0 WAR, which roughly equates to $100,000 in salary

You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis

by scstrato on Jul 26, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rivera has been very very good this year but worth 12.9m in just a half a year? Pujols and great players like that yes. He has been worth his paycheck already but i dont think he has been worth no 12.9m right now though. Its only a half a year already. And since June for Anderson i would say he has been worth it but whatever.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jul 26, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Explanation:

robkybull felt that Anderson would have been hitting as well as he has been lately over the course of the full year, which would have put his current value above replacement (if not by a ton.)

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 27, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know you were recapping your last post, but...

You should have added #6, and then moved it to #1: getting rid of fyf. This team just took off after that lead weight was lifted off of them.

"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09

by buzzdeadwax on Jul 24, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Glad someone mentioned that and.....

Yes after FYF leaving karma has once again decided to enter our presence….Here is another Karma factor, let us call it the “Maddux factor” . Our PR department deserves a big round of applause for scheduling a number retirement ceremony in the middle of our season! This date coincided with what has become a big tradition, one that the honoree was involved in several times, a turning point in the season. Didn’t I hear that Bobby had him do a little work for him…look over some talent or something like that?
I take a moment to reflect on my post back in June, the positive thinking post. Someone up in the FO must have read it (all bow to my fore thought!…just kidding) Where I challenged all the young players to make a “Name” for themselves. How about that? They get to see a number retirement of possibly the greatest Braves player in the last 25 years, talk about motivation!

by bravestatoo on Jul 25, 2009 6:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was just about to say something about our “upgraded” right field. I hate to beat a dead horse, but is it just coincidence that the Braves started winning once Francoeur was traded?

by tchoup on Jul 25, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Brewers, Marlins, Dodgers. That’s gonna tough to make up ground. I hate playing Florida.

If Dunn walks 30 fewer times, he'll drive in 15 more runs. This is thanks to the scientifically proven formula: RBI = (this is nonsense) (I made it all up).

Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.

by TradeAndruw on Jul 24, 2009 1:49 PM EDT reply actions  

How the hell is Florida even in the race? Who are they to be winning these games!?!?! 8 P

It’s always personal vs the Fish.

(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)
"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews ~ RIP Roi

by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jul 24, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Going 9-0 vs the Nationals helps… We’ve squandered opportunities vs the Nats which pisses me (and probably everyone else) off.

by Cammando2317 on Jul 24, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

amen brother

we’re like 4-5 against them this year right?

7/24/2009 - "The Phillies are too far ahead in the NL East for the Braves to make a run." - Buster Olney

REMEMBER THAT BOYS.

by Scott Coleman on Jul 25, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

our new center fielder has played in every single game since my previous post

Omar Minaya would love this guy.

Pete Rose was actually banned from baseball for teaching Jeff Francoeur how to play. He made up the gambling stuff to hide his shame.

by VivaLosBravos on Jul 24, 2009 2:51 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Jul 25, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Glad to be wrong

I’m actually proud to say my vote was wrong, or yours was right – however you prefer to see it. Just like our man Hobbs, I’m scared to say anything about our current run but that’s not keeping me from crossing my fingers.

You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis

by scstrato on Jul 24, 2009 11:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Well.

I embraced the positivity and it’s worked out, so I’ve lost my fear. Kind of like Buehrle talking to his teammates in the dugout about the ongoing perfect game!

"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999

by ejruiz on Jul 25, 2009 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm afraid to vote...

Like royhobbs said above – it’s like watching a no-hitter. I don’t dare say (or vote it) out loud.

But – Shhhh secretly my hopes are HIGH and I can’t wait to celebrate the games and series we’re about to win.

"Well behaved women rarely make history" ~ Laurel Ulrich

by NCChopper on Jul 25, 2009 9:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Holding out hope

I’m optimistic, and the offense’s recent signs of life are very encouraging. But, I am still concerned that we don’t have quite enough big bats to get it done. When we’re hitting on all cylinders like we are now, they look great, but I’m not completely sure that we can sustain this level of offense long-term. But, oh, if we can, watch out Phils, we’re coming for first place…

by tchoup on Jul 25, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions  

Context

Here’s what’s true. Since the All Star break, the Braves are playing better baseball. They have won seven out of their last ten games, and are 50-48 on the season. .

However, the OP’s premise is not true. In other words, the Braves are not “making a run”. The Braves are still 6.5 games behind the Phillies.

Eleven of the Braves’ next fourteen games will be played on the road. They have a three-game series coming up against Philadelphia in mid-August in Atlanta. By August 16, we will know whether the Braves are going to “make a run” this season.

by Messenger on Jul 26, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Look at how much ground they have covered in the WC standings – they have made a run.

20 days ago, we were 6 games back in the WC standings…now, we are just 3.5. 20 days ago, we were chasing 6 other teams in the WC standings. Today, we are chasing 5 (and only behind by half a game to 2 of those teams). They are indeed making a run. Once the Phillies start losing a game every 4 games or so, we should close some serious ground – especially seeing as how we have many games left against them and have dominated them thus far this season.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jul 26, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

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