It Will Be Tough To Deal Javy Vazquez, But It Must Be Done

As valuable as Javier Vazquez has been to the Braves, the unfortunate and sad reality is it won't last past this season; and more than likely won't last past this month. Vazquez is third in the NL in strikeouts and sports the second highest swing-and-miss percentage in the majors. His control is also outstanding, ranking fifth in the majors in BB per nine innings, and fourth in the majors in WHIP. Javy is ninth in the majors in adjusted ERA, teammate Jair Jurrjens is 7th. Javy has been a stalwart in the Braves rotation and easily GM Frank Wren's most acclaimed addition in the offseason. Most will agree that Vazquez could easily have been an All Star selection this year had it not been for the utter lack of run support by the Braves.

Unfortunately for the Braves, with the success of Vazquez--and of the starting rotation in general--they sit 6.5 games behind the first place Phils and merely one game above .500 on July 21; a mark they finally reached for the first time since May. Largely due to the lack of consistent hitting; a bonafide Jekyll & Hyde offense, the Braves have not been able to keep up with the Phillies in the NL East. With the losses of Jeff Francoeur (trade to Mets) and Kelly Johnson (rehab assignment in AAA, Gwinnett) the offense has started to really pick itself up. Martin Prado has easily been the teams most improved player and has done much more than simply fill in for Johnson's absence at 2B. Prado can also be used at 1B and 3B, which certainly ups his value. And with utilityman Omar Infante returning soon from a broken hand, the future looks bright for the Braves offense.

Whether the Braves will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline is still up in the air according to GM Frank Wren. The Braves could also stand still and hope their offense continues to click and their staff continues to do what they've done all year. Another option, and probably the most profitable one is the addition-by-subtraction approach; which is to say dealing one of your key cogs for another impact player. This is where Vazquez comes in to play.

1. Vazquez's "sell factor" is the highest it has ever been and most would agree the highest it will ever be. Thus trading him at this time would yield the Braves their largest return possible.

2. Vazquez has a contract running through next year, so the team that would acquire him would get another year out of him instead of possibly losing him to free agency.

3. The Braves rotation could withstand the blow of losing him. With Tommy Hanson coming on very strong, Jurrjens pitching like the ace he is, and Derek Lowe beginning to show flashes again, the rotation is still very solid even without Vazquez.

And lastly, the Tim Hudson factor. Hudson returned this past Sunday in his first rehab start from Tommy John surgery on his elbow. He pitched solid for High-A Myrtle Beach for two innings allowing no hits with one walk and 2 strikeouts. Hudson's rehab progress thus far has been nothing short of perfect. He has thrown simulated games and 90 pitch bullpen sessions without any setbacks.

If Hudson is able to return to his old form for the Braves, he would be able to slide right in to Vazquez's role for a playoff push. Right now the targeted return date for his season debut is August 16. Obviously that date is past the July 31 trade deadline, so the Braves will have to take a leap of faith with Hudson if he shows he is ready to return in his 2 rehab stints before the deadline.

Hudson's contract includes a $12M team option for the 2010 season that the Braves are expected to invoke. That being said, the financial impact of paying Lowe $15M, Hudson $12M, and Vazquez $11.5M is too much for the organization to bear. Add Chipper Jones' 2010 salary of $13M and the Braves would have $51.5 Million wrapped up in just four players. Ownership has set a rough limit $90 Million for team payroll. To tie up nearly 60% of your payroll into four players is just not smart and does not make a successful franchise.

That being said, the Braves will have to let go of one of the above mentioned players before next season in order to avoid this predicament. Derek Lowe will not be traded because other teams do not value him as a $15M per year player, which is more than fair as I doubt Frank Wren does either. Obviously Chipper is not going anywhere, I won't waste your time expounding on that. That leaves Hudson and Vazquez. And, with Hudson coming off Tommy John surgery he simply has no trade value right now because nobody has seen him pitch. That makes Vazquez the unfortunate odd man out.

Wren can either trade Vazquez before the trade deadline and acquire a player who can step right in and contribute now or he can play out the season and trade him or a presumably successful rehabbed Hudson during winter meetings, thought that is unlikely. If Wren goes after a corner outfielder now, he will most likely go after a player who does not hit free agency next season, as Vazquez won't. Doing that ensures said player will be with us through the 2010 season thereby making either Ryan Church or Garrett Anderson expendable next year. That requirement takes out the bandied about name of Matt Holliday. Likely options for said players include Pat Burrell, Michael Cuddyer, Adam Dunn, Jermaine Dye, Brad Hawpe, Jason Kubel and Marcus Thames. Hopefully Wren can pull the same proverbial "rabbit out of the hat" as his predecessor John Schuerholz used to.