Some stats about Mr. Prado
by drumzalicious on Jul 18, 2009 1:35 PM EDT
52 comments
I decided to do some research today about Mr. Prado. Just because as all of us are I'm curious to see if he is the real deal.
Prado:
In 197 ABs has:
65 Hits
20 2B's
5 HR's
19 RBI's
100 TB's
21 BB's
19 K's
.394 OBP
.504 Slg
.305 AVG
Just for comparison:
Escobar in 290 AB's has:
87 hits
19 2B's
1 3B
8 HR's
48 RBI's
23 BB's
32 Ks
.361 OBP
.455 Slg
.300 avg
Take it how you want but he has made a believer out of me. The guy is a hitting machine IMO
Share your thoughts.
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I thought he was a good hitter after seeing him in lat 07 but now he is just great he is hitting doubles and homers, If he continues to hit the rest of the year (which I think he will) we should give an extension something like 4 years 12 million and maybe another option year
by Heyward is the next crime dog on Jul 18, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no we shoudlnt because he is under control for a couple years… and isnt arb eligible until after 2010 (i think… maybe later)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Jul 18, 2009 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw the Braves play last year in Phoenix and Prado really stood out to me. His whole approach at the plate and his swing just seemed to come so easy. He had some great hits that game. I clearly remember one of his at-bats he absolutely crushed the ball for a triple, and he also had a double that game going 3-4 with 3 RBI’s. Each time he hit the ball hard. I checked his stats for that game, and he was batting .310 at the time.
I am not just saying this now that he is tearing it up, but I was on the train this offseason like some of you, to have him starting at 2B and moving kelly to LF. I know that most of you say that he is just an average player on a streak right now and is no more than a backup player..but he has shown us time and time again that he CAN start and do it well. He has been great and I hope he continues this.
by WeStillHaveBobby on Jul 18, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"Time and time again...?"
How do you figure.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do think he is playing above himself a bit, but I still think he is an above average offensive player.
http://nomorespin-sports.blogspot.com
by nomorespinsports on Jul 18, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bench player
No one can keep this up.
by esadb on Jul 18, 2009 1:54 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Now i do not agree about the bench player part but i do agree that he cant keep it up i mean he is hittin like one of the best players in the game. He isn’t one of the best players in the game i will even admit that. But i think he has proven that he isn’t just a bench player and for some of you to keep sayin that is ridiculous, i mean he was hittin great last year as well, but whatever not wantin to get in a argument about this again. He is gonna cool down we all know that but even when he does i think he will still hit like a capable starting 2B in MLB.
braves#1
by rockybull on Jul 18, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, he was hitting great...
When he could have his spots picked out for him to be successful. His defense is terrible and this hitting won’t keep up.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You either a HUGE Kelly fan or just have NO faith in Prado's play
The guy has been a hitting stud so far and imo, doesn’t like one of those streaky second baseman we’ve grown accustomed to watching over the last 2 and half seasons.
by RaffyGonzo on Jul 18, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Raffy,
I agree with you, after watching Prado play since being with the Braves, the guy has always come through for us, and as Bobby says he’s a work horse, always working on improving, I like that dedication in a ball player!
by HEYJUDE on Jul 18, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it will certainly be interesting to see if he can at least be a productive everyday player for the rest of the season
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on Jul 18, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you meant...
That Prado is slugging .504 not that his OPS is .504.
But yeah, Prado is the real deal. He’s still young, and has progressed year after year. He’s looking like a new Pedroia. I think he’s just been too consistently good for too long for it to be considered nothing more than a hot streak. Plus he gets hit after hit when down in the count.
by pancanbra on Jul 18, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dont think he is a bench player but I dont think he is a 330 hitter, I see him as a solid 300 hitter who is developing 15 HR 40 double power
by Heyward is the next crime dog on Jul 18, 2009 3:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Congratulations, you can read an ESPN player card.
by bigjoe on Jul 18, 2009 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The more interesting analysis would be
If you extended those numbers over 600 plate appearances (a pretty normal number for a full-time starter), they’d look like this:
.330/.394/.508 with 52 doubles, 3 triples, 14 homers, 132 RBI’s, 58 walks, and 52 strikeouts
Obviously these aren’t realistic numbers to expect from Prado (the average, double, and RBI totals stick out). What I do think he’s capable of are Marcus Giles-like numbers (the good years). The main difference between the two are that Giles was far more prone to strikeouts (17.8% to 11.6% for their careers), but that is pretty much canceled out by a high BABIP during his best years (.340, .365, and .337 from 2003-05). Other than that their peripherals are pretty close with only a few small differences.
Giles during the 3-year period mentioned before had a .305/.377/.480 and to me, something similar to that seems like a very reasonable prediction for what Prado is capable of (maybe a slightly lower SLG). He’s shown the ability throughout his career to control the strikezone well and take a good number of walks, which should allow him to reach similar average and OBP’s and with his added strength this season, 15 homers and 40 or so doubles in a full season of starting seem like very reachable totals. Thoughts?
by was385 on Jul 18, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another difference...
Giles was an above-average 2B (1.0 career UZR150); Prado is a TERRIBLE 2B (-24.0 career UZR 150.)
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about you just go ahead and say he is average? 1.0 might be technically above average, but actually saying he is “An above average 2B” comes off as being generous.
by yondaime4 on Jul 18, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, fine...
Either way, 25 runs over the course of a year is a fuckload, wouldn’t you agree?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d consider 2 and a half wins a fuckload, yes
by bigjoe on Jul 18, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you know that UZR is plays, and not runs, right?
by bigjoe on Jul 18, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah he’s actually saving us 2 and a half wins (He’s a 2.2 WAR player) and 21.8 runs. I think that’s what you’re saying, but it’s hard to tell.
So MP, he is basically the reverse of what you’re saying. I’m not trying to be a dick, so sorry if it comes off that way.
by acie4mvp on Jul 19, 2009 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Umm...
The reverse? No. Defensively, he’s costing us lots of runs.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re right, he is costing us runs defensively at second base, but he is also saving us runs at first and third. I was including his offensive runs too, though.
by acie4mvp on Jul 20, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But isn't the premise of this article...
That he should be the full-time 2B?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats overall, MP is talking about defensively.
He’s +4.4 runs defensively due to his time at first and third
by bigjoe on Jul 19, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First, I don’t really subscribe to defensive metrics. I’m not saying that none of you should use them, but just a note. Second, I know he has been pretty miserable so far but it’s also a very limited sample size, even more so when you take into account that his primary position over the last couple of seasons has been third base. I’m not holding out hope that he’s going to be a GG-worthy second baseman but the word on him has always been somewhat below average range with a very solid glove and I think he’s capable of that from watching him. And you know what, if he hits as well as Giles did, I could care less how his defense is, as long as he’s not a paraplegic.
by was385 on Jul 18, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's played more 2B in the majors than 3B...
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at his career UZR/150, yeah he is a terrible defender at 2nd. But this year, however, he is only -5, so not quite average, but neither is he the albatross that his career numbers would suggest. It actually seems like he is improving on his defense all around this year.
At 1B, he has been about 3 (15.5 – 18.4) outs better. (155.2 innings)
At 3B, he has been 24 (-2.2 – 21.8) outs better. (140.0)
At 2B, he has been about 15 (-19.7 to -5.0). (126.1)
As a side note, he could be the greatest defensive left fielder to play the game (91.5 UZR/150).
by acie4mvp on Jul 19, 2009 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I liked that LF number too...
I actually suggested below that we should consider him an option out there if/when Kelly decides to start putting up the 113 OPS+ clip he did the last two years.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 19, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That could be a good idea. His defense is obviously not 91.5 good out there, but he’s probably above average and I agree that Kelly will start hitting again. Or we could just bench Kotchman and play Prado at first instead.
by acie4mvp on Jul 20, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
You know how to contribute to a conversation dont you.
by drumzalicious on Jul 18, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What are your counting stats telling anyone? “He’s really playing good right now?” No analysis whatsoever.
by bigjoe on Jul 19, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hence the part
that says share your thoughts. it wasnt meant to be an analysis. The title of the post says some STATS about Mr. Prado. Not an ANALYSIS of Mr. Prado.
by drumzalicious on Jul 19, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yet the fact that you make a post at all...
Implies that it has some merit.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either way, Mehrten Preydoo is a better option than KJ, and I definitely wish we had pulled off the KJ for Ludwick straight up in the offseason.
by BravesRaleigh on Jul 18, 2009 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you look at Prado’s minor league numbers, other than 2006, he has always posted pretty solid BB/K ratios. In 2006, it was around .40, but the average for his other seasons was .71. Overall, it was about .64. In the majors, in 2008 it was .72 and this season it’s 1.11. The sample size isn’t particularly great (around 200 at bats each), but this combined with his minor league numbers makes me think he’s capable of putting up good BB/K ratios (at least .70).
Prado’s BABIP, however, is pretty high at .360 last season and .347 this season. That’s the first number that everyone expects to come down to earth. Using Dutton’s Simple xBABIP Calculator, I get that Prado’s BABIP in 2008 should have been .320 and it should have be .317 in 2009. Basically, Prado hitting .320 and .330 is above his head and it should come down. I do think he’s capable of hitting .290 or maybe a bit more. I’m going to adjust Prado’s hitting line by normalizing the batting average to .290 by subtracting 7 hits from 2008 and subtracting 8 hits from 2009.
2008: .290/.349/.431/.780
2009: .290/.355/.468/.823
Now, the other interesting thing about Prado is his power spike. His ISO was .141 in 2008 and .178 this season. In the minors, it was usually around .100, but the Braves minor league parks tend to be pitcher friendly. Prado’s gotten older so he should hit for more power, but big league pitching is almost more difficult to hit against. In either case, the power spike is probably temporary, kind of like Dustin Pedroia’s 2008 power spike. Let’s say Prado’s ISO settles in at .120. For comparison, Escobar’s career ISO is about .127, though it’s about .150 this season. With the previous adjustment, that makes Prado’s lines look like this:
2008: .290/.349/.410/.749
2009: .290/.355/.410/.755
I think these are fair assessments of Martin Prado’s true skill level. Don’t be surprised of he trends back down there. I might even be too generous with the ISO and assuming his K/BB ratio will stay where it is. If he can play a solid second base, then this is good production. In fact, this is better than Garret Anderson’s ceiling which is, at this point in his career, something like .290/.330/.450.
by VictorW on Jul 18, 2009 4:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So, assuming realistic hitting lines for both Prado and Johnson...
Maybe Prado should be an option in LF, where he’s played 23 really excellent innings (91.5 UZR150.) Not that I’m saying that means much, but it probably means he can be at least as good there as GA, and probably better.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 18, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is certainly a new and interesting idea… putting Prado in LF…
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Jul 18, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Watching Prado at the plate and you see a professional hitter. He actually has the ability to work pitchers at times rather than the other way around. He was in the hunt for the IL batting title when brought up, originally. His defense is not as bad as some make it. Before yesterday, 2 errors in 191 chances at 2B. His range is limited but he can be solid. When you have a outstanding defense at the two positions on either side, we can get by with just solid play. Before the season, I would like to have seen him get a shot at the LF spot. He plays RF in the winter leagues. When it appeared that Orlando Hudson wasn’t getting any offers, I would like to have seen the Braves sign him and have three gold glove defenders in the IF. KJ, coming off a hot Sept last year still had value and could have brought us something. Orlando at 2B and Prado in LF would have worked. Also, we have no 3B prospects close to ready. Prado might have been a decent choice wih his power coming on like it has.
by braves99 on Jul 19, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
...who is no better a hitter than Prado?
Really?
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 20, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither is 11 errors in 75 games….
by RaffyGonzo on Jul 20, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kelly Johnson is better than both of them, BUT RAWR KELLY JOHNSON FUCKING SUCKS AND SHOULD BE BURNED AT THE STAKE
by bigjoe on Jul 20, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone else remember
It was only mentioned on television or radio, and has never actually been quoted anywhere in print, but earlier this season, there was a brief mention about how the biggest difference with current Prado compared to Prado from 2+ years ago is one thing – Omar Infante.
The brief mention was how Prado attributed his recent (and currently on-going) success (offensively) to what he learned from having Infante on the bench with him. Like he picked up some hitting tips from Omar, and has applied them to his own swing.
He only had 52 games and 111 PAs under his belt prior to Infante’s arrival, and is still relatively youthful at 25, so it could just be a big case of figuring things out. But I do find it interesting the relative jump of production which obviously leads to more playing time, starting in 2008 when Infante was acquired.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Jul 19, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
would make sense
There are tons of stories about players growing because of their teammates
AJ Burnett said the same thing about Halladay
by drumzalicious on Jul 19, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I were Halladay, I would deny that. lol
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well i mean
he is somewhat less injury prone now. he said he learned not to always try to overpower guys and he learned to pitch. from him trying to overpower people he destroyed his arm. now he has been a little less injury prone.
also smoltz said the same thing about maddux. in that he learned how to pitch from maddux
by drumzalicious on Jul 19, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like he's gotten a lot stronger
Prado can reach out now and drive a ball into the gap or down the line with even some of his weaker swings and I don’t remember him doing that previously.
by was385 on Jul 19, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i believe he said he was stronger in an interview some time ago. either way whatever it is he has been dynamite for us hitting in front of chipper. If McLouth would get out of this little slump he is in we would be doing some serious damage.
by drumzalicious on Jul 19, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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