What to do with KJ...

by Fischerking on Jul 15, 2009 1:15 PM EDT

Martin Prado has emerged as our starting 2B and seems very capable of holding down the position. The last few games before the All-Star break he played 3B while Chipper was hurt and Brooks Conrad had a chance to play a few consecutive games at second. Conrad suprised a lot of people with his plate discipline and his ability to get some key hits. Not to mention some spectacular plays on defense.

Conrad has shown that he can play in the majors even though the sample size is still very small. Omar Infante will be returning to the lineup soon, and though not a big offensive threat Diory Hernandez has been decent off the bench.

This leaves the Braves with a decision when KJ is ready to come back. He seems kind of the odd man out right now. I guess it's possible for him to take Norton's spot (one of the few guys on the team that's been more disappointing than KJ) on the bench, but I don't know if the Braves will do that. I just wanted to see what others thought might be possiblities for them when he is ready to come back.

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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His trade value isn't much right now

We have him fairly cheap, he’s arbitration eligible after the 2011 season. Having him around as insurance, and hoping he might be able to get his swing right might be the best option. If Prado slumps at any point, Kelly could win the job back.

If we could ship him off for a major league ready SS (in the case we are shopping Yunel) or a 3b of the future then I wouldn’t be too upset about trading him away. But really, his trade value has to be regressing with each day on the bench.

by Cracker! on Jul 15, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions

Keep him on a rehab assignment for as long as possible then bring him up. Let’s not kid ourselves, Johnson is a far superior player than both Conrad and Hernandez. Neither should play over him. I’d also roster him over Norton for what that’s worth. His obvious long-term role is as a starting second baseman. We can ride Prado’s hot streak, but let’s not be stupid and trade a clear top ten ML second baseman to open up a spot for a second division starter.

by 17843 on Jul 15, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions

Well said.

I wouldn’t mind seeing Kelly get some ABs all over, and he should be starting at second vs LHP, with Kotchman on the bench and Prado at first IMO.

Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur

A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.

by timmy3 on Jul 15, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

that’s a damn good idea

by Cracker! on Jul 15, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

That is a great idea. I think that we should keep him around because I still believe he is a better player than Prado. That being said, Prado has to be our starter right now, he is simply hitting too well

by eaheckman10 on Jul 15, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

+100

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

+111

Yes…finally some people saying some kind things about Kelly. He CAN play at this level, and his swing shall return. He has too much natural baseball talent and works too hard for it not to.

Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.

by Jareth Cutestory on Jul 17, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions

He's not much of an asset off the bench...

Unless he shows he can play in the OF or maybe at SS, which he hasn’t done for a while.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions

Should they allow Kelly to work on his swing in the minors?

by Walker Wallace on Jul 15, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

some time in the minors....

If we could find a way to get him 50 or more ABs in the minor leagues..that would be great. I really think he could use that opportunity to get his swing straightened out and if Prado is starting then he isn’t going get that chance in ATL. Does he have options left?

As for Hernandez …he is back in Gwinnett as soon as Infante returns. You could argue to send Norton down in exchange for KJ. However, Norton isn’t in the Braves long term plans…I think they would KJ to be. Therefore letting Norton rot on the bench with 34-5 ABs a week won’t impact the team long term. Bringing KJ and only giving him 4-5 ABs a week would effect the team long term and really set Johnson back.

by calbers on Jul 15, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry...

that is supposed to be 4-5 ABs per week.

by calbers on Jul 15, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I mean...

His current assignment there can last a month total. That gives us until 8/7 to be forced to do something with him.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Defensively.. KJ is usually real good..

Offensively.. KJ is a streak hitter. Depending on the offer and etc. Set em out there and see what bites.. IMHO.

by SidKotchman on Jul 15, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions

For as much as Kelly is supposedly a streaky hitter, has any actually quantified that? Like measured the standard deviation of his months compared to other major leaguers. Or is everyone just parroting a possibly incorrect piece of information?

And he’s not “real good” defensively. He’s improved slowly from bad to average. Check out the UZR.

by 17843 on Jul 16, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey now...

Above average this year. And given that he’s been trending up at a position he had never played, one could conclude he still might just get better there if given the opportunity.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 16, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Trade him or package him w/ Gonzo to a team for something. Soriano has been lights out an I would love to resign him but with his good season resigning Gonzo could be more likely. However Gonzo is left-handed which could drive his price tag up as well. Hmm, off-season decision could be interesting this year but we will have to free up a ton of cash to go after a power bat on free agent market or via trade.

by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Jul 15, 2009 7:56 PM EDT reply actions

I think whether we move KJ will depend on the FO’s evaluation of KJ. If the FO feels that KJ is in the plans for the team in the long run, then they will let him get his swing back in AAA. If they feel that Prado is the team’s 2nd baseman for the long run, then we should try to trade KJ to someone for bullpen help. As of right now, I don’t think he has enough value to bring in an impact bat that we need at first base, without pairing him with either prospects, Escobar, or bullpen (Gonzo, Soriano). We don’t want to sale the farm for this year, so that’s out of the question. We could package him with Escobar, but we would have to get a ML SS in return, and I don’t think that will happen. Packaging him with Gonzo or Soriano, which has been suggested before, doesn’t make any sense either, unless we are going into sale mode. Why would we trade our best high leverage relievers if we plan on making a run in the division? The only way to do that would be to get another high-leverage reliever in return, which doesn’t make sense.

All in all, I think make some calls, and see what’s out there. Maybe we can get another high-leverage reliever that we can control for a couple of years. I think that would be the best-case scenario for now and the future.

by dlkinser86 on Jul 15, 2009 8:30 PM EDT reply actions

Cox might like him...

But I doubt the organization sees Prado as the 2B of the future after a good month or so at the plate.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 15, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Let's crunch numbers!

I apologize in advance for going all Billy Beane on you guys, but here is my case for Prado over Johnson:

OK so seeing some comments on here and then thinking of my own preconceptions about what I’ve seen from KJ and Prado over the last couple years, I thought that for sure KJ is our 2B for now and some time. Then I checked the numbers and I found some interesting things.

They both have been in the Majors with Atlanta for 4 seasons now. Not full seasons all of them, but they’ve played at least 20 games with the big club for 4 seasons, both of them, which gives us some nice statistical comparisons.

KJ has three times as many PA’s. This doesn’t mean much, and in fact might help Prado in areas like average, OPS, etc., but it also might beg the question what if Prado gets a starting gig?

KJ career AVG = .264
Prado career AVG = .315

KJ Career OPS = .773
Prado Career OPS = .829

KJ Career Fld% = .981
Prado Career Fld% = .978
(KJ has almost 7 times as many chances)

KJ BB/K ratio = 5.5 to 10
Prado BB/K ratio = 5 to 6

What does all this tell me? If Prado had a starting gig, kind of like he has been getting as of late, he can produce, perhaps at a much higher clip than KJ. We all know Kelly is a streaky hitter, but we really can’t know if Prado is or isn’t a streaky hitter can we? He is hot now, who’s to say he can’t stay relatively hot? Maybe he is developing at a faster rate than expected? Maybe he isn’t the utilityman he has been stuck as?

These and their total career numbers speak loudly to me that Prado deserves a chance to be an everyday 2B. And what better time than now to try him out?

by thrilliam on Jul 16, 2009 5:17 AM EDT reply actions

Go Martini!!

Maybe we could see how Kelly does in left….at least McLouth wouldn’t have to cover as much ground out there.

"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews ~ RIP Roi
(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)

by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jul 16, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

LOL@fielding percentage.

Try .979 (Johnson) to .963 (Prado) at 2B if you’re dumb enough to care. Sadly, UZR150 looks even worse for your boy. KJ is -6.7 career, but 2.7 this year. Prado is only -5.0 this year, but -24.0 (!!!!!!!) for his career.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 16, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Only thing that matters now is

Winning games. Prado’s offense is up right now, he’s seeing the ball well and he’s hitting the ball well, kelly is struggling. Which one is giving us the best chance to win? Because that’s what it boils down to winning.

by SidKotchman on Jul 16, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Bad defense = More runs allowed = Fewer wins

I’m not saying that Prado’s current overall package will not give the Braves a better chance at winning games, but when you say that defense doesn’t matter, you just sound ignorant (imo).

"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09

by buzzdeadwax on Jul 16, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I think with more consistancy at one position he will have the opportunity to settle in very well.

by Fischerking on Jul 16, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Or he'll be even more exposed for his flaws

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 16, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I think this may happen sooner or later...

but I reserve hope for both of them. If both prove they are solid starting 2b material (meaning KJ re-proves it), than that is a good problem to have…

by Andy Braves Fan on Jul 16, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Definitely a good problem to have

Even Conrad has looked good just adds depth or good trade options etc. Down the line.

by SidKotchman on Jul 16, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Brooksie probably has the same defensive problems Prado does as an every-day player.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 16, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I have no idea where you got your numbers

I got mine on baseball reference which includes all their major league numbers and only their major league numbers, I’m curious if you are including numbers that are not relevant to the conversation…

by thrilliam on Jul 16, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions

No, I am.

You’re looking at their overall FP% at all positions. Prado has played tons of 1B, which artificially inflates his overall percentage.. Also, UZR/150, a statistic that not only describes proficiency in avoiding errors but also attempts to define a player’s direct defensive contributions by measure of how many runs he saved relative to an average defensive player. You can find that information at fangraphs.com.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 16, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the clarification

I realized Prado had played some 1B, but didn’t realize how much so yes the Fld% can be misleading. Kelly also gets the slightest of bumps from his perfect season in left, but his 2B Fld% is still superior so far as you have noted. The zone rating that you’ve posted also clearly shows KJ’s further development at second.

However, I would still say that given more time at 2B I am confident Prado could develop into a serviceable second baseman. Only time will tell really. And it’s only one man’s opinion who has no bearing on the team’s decisions!

by thrilliam on Jul 17, 2009 5:23 AM EDT up reply actions

thrilliam, Thanks for the numbers and I agree. Let’s see how Prado does in the long haul.
I have watched KJ go into these streaks since being with the Braves.
The streaks are getting longer and longer with each passing year!
I would like nothing more than to see him improve, but not at the cost of hurting our team.
It’s not just frustrating to us fans but also to his teammates.

by HEYJUDE on Jul 17, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions

So when did I say defense doesn't matter?

Cause if u re-read what I wrote I never said defense doesn’t matter. It does but overall at this time prado’s the hot hand and you have to play your hot hand, especially when ur not exactly smoking the scoreboard up. Kj is a streak hitter, maybe prado’s is too but he hasn’t lost it yet so u have to keep starting him. To not play someone who is hitting like prado and to argue kj deserves to start right now after flirting all year with .200 sounds a little ignorant to me.

by SidKotchman on Jul 16, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions

Well, the argument you were responding to was all about defense, so it seemed like your statement, while not explicitly saying “Defense is worthless!”, seemed to imply that it’s irrelevant comared to offense. That’s simply not the case. Sorry if I misunderstood.

Also, I don’t know if KJ deserves to start at this point, but If Prado is significantly worse on defense, that will cancel out his edge over KJ offensively. This is completely leaving aside the fact that KJ has much better offensive tools and has a 2 season track record of being an above-average ML 2B.

by buzzdeadwax on Jul 16, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

frenchy's 2 season track record was good too..

look at his past 1 1/2. IMHO I take offensive numbers and weaker defense over no offense and better D. Defensive skills also come with play..i mean jeez, chipper’s been ate up alot this year more than KJ but we let him slide.

by SidKotchman on Jul 16, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

But Francoeur GOT that chance.

After not even 3 full months, Kelly got benched. I hope, as Chipper said, his hitting issues really were injury-related. It’s a small sample size, but slugging over 500 and OPSing over 800 at Gwinnett tells me he hasn’t lost it altogether.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 16, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Sid, I agree, ignorant is the key word.

by HEYJUDE on Jul 17, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Meant for above sorry posting from iPhone

by SidKotchman on Jul 16, 2009 12:51 PM EDT reply actions

I’d have him shagging flies in the OF. I’d have him pick up a 1B glove and be ready to go there. Might even have him take some grounders at 3B. I think KJ has the potential to be a LH-hitting Mark Derosa, and that’s useful. Clearly Prado needs to be the starter at 2B right now but I’m not ready to give up on KJ either.

by matches on Jul 16, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions

I dunno.

Without knowing what kind of shape his elbow’s in, OF could be a tough load to bear. In addition, after all the time the kid’s put in at 2B to become an above-average defender at the position and the past successes he’s had at the plate, what does it say to him when you say, “Tough luck, bud, find you a big glove”?

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 16, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m loath to give up on him. He hasn’t contributed much at the plate, but he isn’t a bad fielder, and he can play a couple of other positions.

by John Holton on Jul 16, 2009 4:56 PM EDT reply actions

DID play a couple of other positions...

He hasn’t played anywhere but 2B since his injury, right?

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jul 16, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s true, but he came up as a shortstop and played left field before his surgery. I’d be willing to keep him at Gwinnett on rehab assignment and see if he could play there and pick up the other infield positions. His biggest value might be as trade fodder, I’m not sure.

by John Holton on Jul 16, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions