Little Things
And I'm not talking about the Bush song. Braves @ Rockies 070909
So tonight we had another great opportunity to take the lead, and ultimately, the win. Jeff Francoeur, of all people is having a great night. He had just hit his 3rd double, and is in position to give us the lead. So, our new favorite Brave, Brooks Conrad comes in to move him over with a bunt--which is fine, but I would have been okay with him swinging away, too, with the way he's swinging the stick. First pitch is a high fastball, which we all know you should NOT attempt to get down for a bunt. But this is Braves baseball, so of course he pops it up to the pitcher. One down. Lost opportunity there.
Cue Chipper Jones. Why, Bobby? How long have you been in baseball? You can't possibly expect us to believe you thought they would pitch to him? So not only do we burn Chipper, we burn Gregor Blanco to run for him. Now the Rockies have force outs available at any bag. Advantage: CO. The only think I can figure is that Bobby KNEW we'd get an extra baserunner by PH Chipper, but it still befuddles the Jareth.
Since Brooks failed to get the bunt down, and we're on the road with 2 above average-to-fast runners on base with only one out, baseball logic usually tells us it's time to take a chance since we don't have final at-bat. I see this as an opportunity to double steal. Like I said, we have two good baserunners, and the double steal gives the catcher the opportunity to decide which base he wants to throw down to, possibly resulting in a bad throw if the steals don't work outright. Instead, Li'l Nate goes up there hacking with no movement whatsoever on the basepaths. Nate got down 0-1 on a BAD high "strike" call, so he's instantly in defensive mode, and ends up striking out. Another opportunity dashed.
Then all the pressure is on Martin Prado, and with all of his success lately, he was due to fail at some point. He weakly grounds out and that's that. I stopped watching at that point.
This is just more of the same from our begrudgingly beloved Braves up to this point this year. Failing to seize opportunities, failing to take calculated risks, and failing to do the little things has cost us another adequate pitching performance. I hate to question a baseball man like Bobby Cox, because certainly he has forgotten more about baseball than I will ever know. However, I feel like he is forgetting the wrong aspects of winning baseball. Here's hoping he, and the rest of our battered squad, can salvage a split (it may be asking too much to hope for a series win) going into the All-Star break.
As a side note, and I know this goes without saying, belong in left field, Garret Anderson does not. Diaz should have been in there from the beginning tonight, and for the rest of the series, regardless of who is pitching.
This is my first FanPost, so please don't be too harsh on me, and please pardon any formatting/mechanical/grammatical issues. It's late. Go Braves, and at least Jeff Francoeur looked good tonight.
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27 comments
Comments
Welcome if you are new as well.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson
by BeantownVol on Jul 10, 2009 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think most of us are frustrated at Braves players and management decisions. The bullpen use of Moyland and Gonzelez. They are basically the only two we use so why are we wasting roster spots for everyone else down there. Is Manny Acosta still in the bullpen? Feels like he is never used.
We can second guess and make our assumptions after the fact, but we aren’t down there with Bobby in the heat of the game. I’m sure we all wouldn’t make good decisions all the time. We get to see the action after the fact and then we go and question. Some of us, me included, need to get off our high horses.
It’s a marathon. Losing close games and blowing leads isn’t fun, but every team does it.
Let’s just see what kind of adjustments the Braves make in the second half. Hopefully the stellar SP remains stellar and the bats start to come alive.
by Sparhawk on Jul 10, 2009 9:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is my first FanPost, so please don’t be too harsh on me, and please pardon any formatting/mechanical/grammatical issues. It’s late. Go Braves, and at least Jeff Francoeur looked good tonight.
Haha, I guess we are that bad for this disclaimer to go up on most posts.
As to the content, you’re right, but second guessing is easy in this case. The bunt, in this case, was probably the right move (as much as giving up an out is). I like it because it puts Frenchy in tag up position. But I think Bobby didn’t do so badly in that situation as to warrant second guessing; execution should’ve been better, that I agree with.
What I take Bobby to task for is his use of Gonzalez. We have other pen options, lets see how they work out! It’ll be better than seeing Gonzalez trot out there for 90 appearances a year removed from Tommy John surgery.
by soup du jour on Jul 10, 2009 9:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
5/31/07.
It’s been way more than a year since TJ for Gonzo.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 13, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the post and agree with it. I do have one thing though. Anderson has been really good lately (on offense). I know he sucks on D, but his bat is really coming around. Honestly, he has been better than Diaz at the plate over the past month or so.
As for the grammar/punctuation/spelling thing: it isn’t like we ridicule someone who forgets to use an apostrophe or something like that…we just get onto the people who post like they are in 3rd grade.
Walls of text, no spacing, run on sentences, etc. Things that make something difficult to read are what we don’t like. If you post like you actually give a shit, you won’t be criticized at all.
Good post.
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 10, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, good post
I feel the same in that it is hard to second-guess Bobby Cox. However, his bullpen management is atrocious.
I have to say, I really don’t like bunting at all unless it is the pitcher (or if the player is fast and bunting for a base hit). I don’t like the idea of giving up outs. Statistically, I have read reports that show sac-bunting is counter-productive just as often as it is productive. Bobby uses the sac-bunt at every opportunity, and I really don’t agree.
Lost opportunity seems to be the story of the Braves’ season this year from the outset. To be fair, it isn’t all their fault. We all know debated ad nauseum the story of the Braves offseason. In games, the Braves seem to fail when opportunities present themselves. All in all, the players need to pick it up (it would help if Yunel and Chipper could stay healthy). I’m looking at you Garrett Anderson in the OF. Anderson used to be a CF, and now he is a waste of space in LF.
Good fanpost.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jul 10, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's an old-school baseball thing.
Frank Robinson clung to his sac bunts like a worn blankie.
And don’t kid yourself. Anderson may have played CF, but he was as much a waste of space there then as he is in left now.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 13, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think Little Things was a good charlotte song.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Jul 10, 2009 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
indeed.
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 10, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I'm showing my age a bit,
but it was a Bush song first.
Bush > Good Charlotte.
=)
Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.
by Jareth Cutestory on Jul 10, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can’t argue that…Glycerin is one of my favorite songs and one of the first I learned on the guitar.
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 10, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 13, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now the Rockies have force outs available at any bag. Advantage: CO.
You would rather have a runner on 2nd base and 1 out than a runner on 1st and 2nd with 1 out?
Since Brooks failed to get the bunt down, and we’re on the road with 2 above average-to-fast runners on base with only one out, baseball logic usually tells us it’s time to take a chance since we don’t have final at-bat. I see this as an opportunity to double steal. Like I said, we have two good baserunners, and the double steal gives the catcher the opportunity to decide which base he wants to throw down to, possibly resulting in a bad throw if the steals don’t work outright.
Jeff Francoeur is not nearly a good enough base runner to ask him to steal bases, especially not 3rd. Risking outs and baserunners this way when you have good hitters coming up is just silly.
by VictorW on Jul 10, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One of my points
is that you have to take risks sometimes on the road. Part of what would have made it surprising is that it’s Frenchy out there. I saw him take a base or two a couple weeks ago and he got in just fine. And you’d rather sacrifice two players to get one more man on base, with 3 available spots for a force out, when the only run that truly matters is already in scoring position?
I may not have proposed this if Conrad hadn’t failed to get the bunt down.
And just because we disagree does not mean you have to say my proposal is “silly” when both situations have their pros and cons.
Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.
by Jareth Cutestory on Jul 10, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I apologize if I came off snarky.
After Conrad, Bobby had to pinch hit. We still had Diaz on the bench so I don’t think it was a big deal to burn the bench when we had a chance to win it. We all know Chipper will get intentionally walked here. Would you rather an inferior hitter swing away with a runner on second, one out, or set up runner on first and second, one out, with McLouth and Prado coming up? And like everyone else is saying, it’s Coors so 1 run isn’t as safe as it usually is and the home team still had two more chances to score.
Here’s the numbers for the double steal:
Successful double steal: 0.1034 WPA
Runner going to second gets thrown out, runner going to third is safe:: -0.0894 WPA
Runner going to third gets thrown out, runner going to second is safe:-0.1013 WPA
Averaging the latter two situations produces -0.09535 WPA. Compare that with the first number and you’ll see that the double steal only has to succeed 48% of the time to break even. So if you think the double steal in that situation (top of the 8th, 1 out, runners 1st, 2nd) will succeed over 48% of the time, then you should pull the trigger. This theshold is lower than I anticipated so now think I have to agree that double stealing in these spots is fairly viable. If you had, say, McLouth and Blanco on base in that spot, it’d be pretty much a sure thing to run.
Oh, and +1 for your name, but isn’t it spelled Cherith? I knew it sounded familiar the first time, and it took me a while to figure out the reference to one of my favorite shows.
by VictorW on Jul 10, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know a lot of statistics!
SInce I’ve joined this site, I’ve seen all sorts of new statistical categories of which I am not familiar, i.e. WPA, FIT, something else that starts with a W I think…
You amost lost me with all of your numbers simply because I don’t know what these things are (although that win probability inquirer is very interesting!). But, you raise a valid argument. But, I still wouldn’t have hit Chipper because I would think that the other team would set up the DP, thus I would have PH Diaz. And if he gets on, it’s probably not because of a walk and we would have runners @ 1st and 3rd, if we had not scored a run.
I guess we just would have differing managerial styles in this case: you play the numbers, which is totally legitimate, and I would have taken a chance in this situation, being on the road and it being, more or less, an unexpected move from a non-running club. And that’s fine…I’m just glad we can disagree on here without being insulting to one another, unlike some other posters I have encountered, so thanks for that =)
And thanks for the props on the username—I quite like it. And just to clarify, it IS spelled Jareth. I can’t wait for the AD movie (it IS in the works if you haven’t heard)!
Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.
by Jareth Cutestory on Jul 11, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I mean, asking a guy with a 52% career SB success rate to steal in a close and late game is a pretty big risk.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 13, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree with advocating the double steal in that situation. For his career Jeff Francoeur has been 14 for 26 in base stealing. He was relatively proficient in the minors, but this is not an aspect of his game that is particularly strong (as if there was one aspect). He has been much better this year 5 for 6, but still. I don’t trust FYF stealing third. Another thing is that Blanco hasn’t been that efficient either (at least according to his minor league numbers). That really doesn’t matter, because the would most likely try to throw out FYF at third and Blanco would tke 2nd easily.
I also think that pinch hitting Chipper makes sense. he is our best hitter. You want your best hitter up in that situation. Your are right it is questionable because you know they are just gonna walk him to set up the force at any base. But they would probably do that no matter who is batting (so maybe you pinch hit chipper for Prado or McLouth, but probably not).
the only mistake we made was not getting the bunt down (and like u admitted Conrad should have been swingin away anyways). I agree we need to know how to bunt for when the opportunity arises, but that opportunity should be sparse.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Jul 10, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think that you and VictorW right before you...
are probably both right. The double steal might have been a bad move. However, Mac isn’t fast enough to justify stealing any base, but he does from time to time. If the pitcher wasn’t looking for it, Frenchy might have just pulled it off. Not saying it was necessarily the right move, but I can see where the poster is coming from.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jul 10, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i would assume thats something everyone is pauying attn to in that situation. the double steal is a valuable asset in that situation, thus the defense was msot liekly ready for it (but this is all assumption on my part). You are right that Mac isnt fast enough to steal bases but u forgot that he is does have a crapload of awesome that allows him to do sweet shit (technically speaking).
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Jul 10, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good lord…are you drunk?
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 10, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Caught up in the crapload of awesome, obviously...
Duh.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jul 13, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
but the Braves aren’t a running team. Bobby doesn’t use the steal very often. So it may have come as a surprise.
by Andy Braves Fan on Jul 10, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
and what’s all this talk about Mac stealing? He wasn’t on base in the 8th if memory serves.
Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.
by Jareth Cutestory on Jul 10, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was mentioned as evidence that u dont need to be fast to steal bases, despite the fact that I never made such an argument. I said Francouer can’t steal bases.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Jul 10, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thats definately true. But that doesnt change the fact that I dont think risking the out makes sense there.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Jul 10, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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