Would You Trade Tommy Hanson for Justin Upton?
by yondaime4 on Jun 6, 2009 3:14 PM EDT
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PrintAlright guys and gals it is time for another "Would You Trade...?". Now before I go into specifics I just want to lay down the rules. This is not a proposed deal or something I think would happen, nor is it something I believe either GMs involved would agree to. It is an exercise in discussion and I expect you to put yourself in the shoes of the GM of the Braves and decide whether or not you would make this trade if it was on the table.
Now, we all know Tommy Hanson is one of the better all around pitching prospects the Braves have produced in a long while. He was generally considered the top RHP prospect in the game prior to the season (with regards to Neftali Feliz and Chris Tillman) and then dominated in the AFL and AAA. Any time a scout or analyst has found a flaw in his game he has found a way to fix it or improve it (his flyball rate has always been a question but it has never caught up with him, even in the offense happy AFL. His 'poor' command has done nothing but improve as he has moved up through the minors). We all know Hanson is the future of our rotation right now and a very talented player.
With all that said, Justin Upton is widely considered one of the most talented young hitters in baseball and is currently in the middle of a breakout season with the Arizona Diamondbacks. His line so far:
Upton was the first overall pick in the 2005 Draft and is already in his 3rd season in the majors. When he was drafted most scouts said his ability was on the same level as Griffey, Jr and Alex Rodriguez and we only see guys like him once every decade or so. Upton is just now 21 years old (22 in August) and would be under control for a few more years and is apparently on the verge of breaking out.
So the question is would you give up Tommy Hanson and all his potential for the current ability and experience of Justin Upton? Discuss!
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No brainer
I know it’s hard to stay up to watch late games, but the people voting for Tommy need to watch this kid Upton hit. OMG!
one thing I didn’t mention about Upton either was as a 20 year old last season he had the longest average home run distance of any player in the majors.
It might have been the D-backs announcers that said it, but someone said during a game that if Upton had been demoted to AAA last season he would have been the youngest player there.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 7, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. A straight swap would be a no brainer for the Braves. An excellent, young cheap position player who is already an established major league player is much more valuable than a potentially excellent, young cheap starting pitcher who hasn’t thrown a pitch in a major league game (as of the time I’m posting this).
No question
But I think the Dbacks would rather do a Jair for Justin deal, which I would be for as well. I know I disagreed with the trade Lowe or Vazquez ideas, but I’m still not as confident with Jair. I consider Lowe and Vazquez more dependable than Jair…of course I’m placing heavy weight on injury possibilities too.
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I would
I love the Hanson kid, and all the hype surrounding him for the Braves organization. But, Upton is YOUNG, as his Hanson. So the reason I would do the trade is simply, we need help with offense like none other.
Without any hesitation. Upton is the most valuable property in baseball right now. Hanson is likely going to be a pretty fantastic starter for us, but 4.5 years of Upton is much more valuable than 6.5 of Hanson. There’s just too much risk with Hanson that just isn’t present for Upton.
I'm tempted to say yes...
Especially with our lack of offense right now, but I haven’t watched Hanson pitch enough to know. In any case, I think the best position player will always be more valuable than the best pitch simply because they play every day.
"If I had a little humility, I would be perfect" - Ted Turner
Hanson would be a better part of our team than Upton would be, i wouldnt give Hason up for ANY other player
having seen him pitch and meeting him a few times i can tell you this guy is the real deal
and i could see him being with us for the next 20+ years thats how good this guy is
I know Upton is an awesome player but we could get him (if we tired) for other pieces other than Hanson
No we couldnt
Not unless were sending Heyward + some more good prospects. Upton is like a god out here in Arizona and you can be sure they would want more than fair value.
"Jason Heyward might be the best offensive prospect i've seen in fifteen years. His game is solid. I would trade any of the current players we have on our 25 man roster for Heyward. He's that good." - NL Scout.
by Scott Coleman on Jun 6, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Upton for the next 2 years, hanson after that
I say that because we obviously need some OF help this year and probably next year too. But we got Jason Heyward in 2011 and it’s crazy how much he resembles Upton.
"Jason Heyward might be the best offensive prospect i've seen in fifteen years. His game is solid. I would trade any of the current players we have on our 25 man roster for Heyward. He's that good." - NL Scout.
I dunno, heyward doesn’t have quite the speed upton has. i would probably rate upton as a better overall athlete but heyward is more polished than Heyward. The problem with saying that though is Upton was already in the majors at age 19 and Heyward hasnt been above A ball. Granted Heyward could be there when he is 20. We shall see.
Justin Upton isn't that fast
He’s athletic but he’s got a very different body type than his brother. Much thicker, so the speed probably won’t be all that different, I just don’t think Heyward, or really any young player for that matter, has the raw power of Upton.
I agree on the power, hence my other post above talking about how far Upton hits the ball. I would like to quote BA here though
Upton’s well-defined and muscular upper body give a hint to his plus power potential, which he accompanies with equal amounts of speed. His 6.23-second time in the 60-yard dash at a Perfect Game showcase last year rates as the quickest in the scouting service’s history.
I know it has been four years since that report, but I don’t think he has lost enough speed to bring him down to level of Heyward’s speed. I think Heyward is faster than people give him credit for, but Upton was considered to have elite speed.
I wouldnt trade Hanson but i would start a package with JJ or Medlen.
Upton would be the perfect person to put infront of Chip if Chip is batting 3rd. Even then i wouldnt be to mad at McLouth Leading Off with Upton in the #2 spot.
McLouth
Upton
Chip
Mac
Thats like 3 runs lol
Jurrjens maybe
It would be tough to make a deal around Medlen tho. Maybe something like Medlen Schafer C. Johnson Hicks and another pitching prospect (spurrill or devall maybe?) it would take ALOT.
"Jason Heyward might be the best offensive prospect i've seen in fifteen years. His game is solid. I would trade any of the current players we have on our 25 man roster for Heyward. He's that good." - NL Scout.
by Scott Coleman on Jun 6, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
i doubt the braves give up Schafer as well simply because i dont believe they ever planned on utilizing McLouth as our CF for the next 4 years.
I would prefer to deal JJ simply because he has more valuable than Medlen and I wonder if KJ would be someone they are interested in.
Maybe start with
J.J.
Kelly Johnson
Cody Johnson
What else after that?
by drumzalicious on Jun 6, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe either Spurrill or Devall like I said earlier. Would that be enough??
"Jason Heyward might be the best offensive prospect i've seen in fifteen years. His game is solid. I would trade any of the current players we have on our 25 man roster for Heyward. He's that good." - NL Scout.
by Scott Coleman on Jun 6, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I say Spurrill simply because we have enough RHP
by drumzalicious on Jun 6, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Without a shadow of a doubt. Upton is already producing like a superstar at the major league level.
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The only thing that would keep me from doing this trade would be the productivity of Jason Heyward. If he produces the way he’s supposed to, then there’s really no absolute need to acquire Upton. Heyward, while he may not produce as highly as Upton, should still be very, very good. We have NO ONE in our pitching staff, majors or minors, that is on the level of Hanson. I believe we would be handicapping our future pitching staff by doing that type of deal.
Would I do this deal today? Probably. Next year? Probably not. There are many factors involved with this type of trade. Intriguing thought, though. I like the idea yondaime!
"These two teams are constantly going at each other verbally. You know, win with class, lose with class. Just keep your mouth shut and go play your game."--Chipper Jones, commenting on the Muts/Phaillies verbal girl fight.
I am thinking Upton is a RH version of Heyward with more Speed and they could both be in the same OF.
If you put those two at the corners and McLouth at CF then we should be fine defense wise.
by drumzalicious on Jun 6, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Because it's more of a player comparison than a ridiculous trade "possibility" that could never ever happen being discussed as reality.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 9, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions
how is a poll asking people if they would trade hanson for upton diff than those other ridiculous posts asking about unattainable trades? This seems just as random and out of left field as those all do. And it’s on the front page. Seems a bit hypocritical to me.
Not that my opinion really matters, but this seems to be splitting hairs. I mean, if this post can be made, why cant someone make a similar post wishing that we make another trade that obv isnt going to happen?
I think many of us aren’t considering the Diamondback’s position in this trade. I know it’s hypothetical (“if it was on the table”), but it’s still worth talking about. Just like we would not have a major league ready, potential top-flight starter to replace Hanson, who would replace Upton in the Dbacks outfield and production in the lineup? Arizona already has Webb, Haren, Scherzer, and Jarrod Parker in the minors who projects as a #1-2 starter. They are deep in top pitching, but very light in solid outfielders. So, hypothetically speaking, it really makes no sense for Arizona to make this trade unless other factors were involved.
"These two teams are constantly going at each other verbally. You know, win with class, lose with class. Just keep your mouth shut and go play your game."--Chipper Jones, commenting on the Muts/Phaillies verbal girl fight.
This is true. What we could offer them is an upgrade in their infield.
by drumzalicious on Jun 6, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I would trade Hanson straight up for Upton.
I wouldn’t if the injury factor weren’t such critical piece of the puzzle. Pitchers get hurt 3 times more than positional players and way more severely. So the risk factor is in favor of Upton.
Let’s look at one trade similar to this proposed one. Let’s say Hanley Ramirez was traded for Josh Beckett.
Even though Mike Lowell has produced in Boston, he was basically a throw in that trade because the Marlins wanted to dump his salary and he was playing at Francouer levels in those times.
Becket was fantastic in 2007, but many people forget he was very bad in 2006 and last year an injury didn’t let him pitch well. In 2009 he had an horrible April, but he regained his form in May.
Hanley has been one of the best positional players in the MLB for the Marlins from 2006 – 2009. So who won that trade? Boston got its championship thanks to Beckett, but the more productive player has been Ramirez and the more time that passes more the Marlins win.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on Jun 6, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions
what makes me think Arizona would accept the trade is that Hanson hasnt shown anything in the majors yet, and Upton has established himself.
Beckett was the MVP of a world series at that time.
It makes my point even stronger
Even though Beckett had been a World Series MVP and even with the inclusion of Mike Lowell the Marlins won that trade undoubtly.
Upton is younger than Hanson, established as a player with a year of experience and barring a catastrophic circumstance he is going to be one of the best positional players for the next 15 years.
I don’t know how he defends his position, but he has the tools to be an outstanding defender and base stealer with his speed
Hanson hasn’t thrown a pitch in the big leagues and the possibility of a career altering injury is higher than Upton’s.
Trading a positional player for a pitcher in equal of conditions of talent and age is almost always a steal for the team getting the positional player.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on Jun 6, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes you make this trade
read this from fangraphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-upton-superstar
heres a snippet:
Upton’s showing remarkable power for a player his age, as his .290 ISO is one of the highest marks in the league. When you see a player that young hitting for that much power, you have something remarkably special. Here’s the list of major league players who have posted an ISO of .250 (minimum 100 PA) or higher before turning 22:
Eddie Mathews, Adam Dunn, Mel Ott, Willie McCovey, Ted Williams, Albert Pujols, Gregg Jefferies, Alex Rodriguez, Bob Horner, Jimmie Foxx, Frank Robinson, Hal Trosky, Joe Mauer, Babe Ruth, Darryl Strawberry, Joe Dimaggio.
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I’d send my left nut over there for him. He’s the second young guy i’d take after Longoria as he’s signed through 2016 and he’s only controlled through 2013.
D-Backs scout
I went to Atlanta to see Hanson’s debut on Sunday. We were sitting right behind Home and just beside me was a D-Backs scout. Naturally, there were 4 other scouts there as well.
Personally, I like Hanson and I think our OF has potential coming. Upton would be a great addition though, especially if Frenchy is done.
I’m the player to be named later.
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