Giants vs the Braves

by calbers on Jun 30, 2009 2:09 PM EDT

Here is a question: why are the Braves 35-40 and the Giants are 41 and 34? I know the Giant's rotation and pitching staff in general, has been great. However, the Braves pitching-especially the starting pitching-has been really good. Both teams have questionable offenses. We all know of the Braves struggles but the Giants have Rowand leading off, and Molina batting clean up. The balance of their line up consits of the likes of their Rookie 1B who has hit only 5Hrs, Fred Lewis, Randy Winn, Renteria, etc. The only above average hitter they have is probably Sandoval. Now I haven't gone through and looked at the run differential, looked the schedule to date for the Giants, nor really seen much of them on TV yet so I thought I would ask this question...What are Bochy and the Giants doing to score enough runs to be 7 games above .500 that the Braves are not? Are they running more? Does everyone up and down the line up hit...just enough?

Any thoughts on what they are doing well (besides pitching lights out)? Anything that Braves good be doing similiar to help the offense move?

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Do they have automatic out like us (KJ Failcoeur)

by Heyward is the next crime dog on Jun 30, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

Among their below-average regular starters (in terms of OPS+):

Randy Winn 82
Bengie Molina 81
Edgar Renteria 70
And to top the cake: Emmanuel Burris 49 (for refrence’s sake, Schafer was at 62 before he got sent down)…and they’ve given him 220 ABs!

So yeah, they have plenty of holes in the lineup.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 30, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Any thoughts on what they are doing well (besides pitching lights out)? Anything that Braves good be doing similiar to help the offense move?

They play in the NLW. The Dodgers are solid and the Rocks coming alive recently, but beating up on the D-Backs helps.

Also, their interleague is against the ALW…that helps too, considering we play the ALE.

I don’t know what their records are against those teams (D-Backs and ALW), but I’d bet it is a lot better than our records against the Marlins/Nats and the ALE.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 30, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

I thought about the division....

But to that argument we are playing against the Fish and the Nationals in our division and the Mets have struggled lately as well. Really record wise the NL East may be the weakest division right now, from top to bottom.

by calbers on Jun 30, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

They beat us by two games in IL, we're up a half game on them in each team's division

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 30, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Speed and Clutch Hitting

Guys like Burriss and Winn give them some wheels on the basepaths. The Braves ranks 28th in baseball is steals, which doesn’t help our anemic bats.

Although SFG hitting also struggles, their hitting has been timely, as the team has excelled in high leverage situations to the tune of a 4.27 clutch rating, good for 2nd in MLB (compare to -.35 mark posted by Braves).

by VivaLosBravos on Jun 30, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions

The Braves and stealing

It would be interesting to see where we rank in SBs since the McLouth trade. Not only McLouth, but also the rest of the Braves seem to have been running a lot more lately – definately more than the first month or so of the season.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 30, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

We've been very lucky

http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090620&content_id=5436640&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=sf

The Giants and Braves are my two favorite teams and while I also see similarities on paper, there’s several reasons for the discrepancy in records. I don’t know the stats on the Braves fielding this year, but they appear to be really struggling catching the ball. While I love the rotation 1-5, I feel the Braves lack a pitcher with shutout potential or a true ace. However, I think the biggest reason is health. The Braves offense revolves around McCain/Jones and both have battled injuries thus far this season.

by SeeingStars on Jun 30, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

hmmmm....

While I love the rotation 1-5, I feel the Braves lack a pitcher with shutout potential or a true ace.

Javier Vazquez, JJ, KK Lowe, and Hanson may not have “shutout potential”, but they have 10 shut-out outings between them. They also have 39 outings of 2 or less runs allowed (earned or unearned).

I think they have plenty of aces and shutout potential, and I believe their records support this.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 30, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry for the poor choice of words. It wasn’t supposed to come off as an insult. However, of those 10 outings, only 4 were into the 7th and you included KK’s 3IP outing. The point I was trying to get at with the shutout stuff is that while the rotation should be great in terms of quality starts, every starter is beatable. Hanson is definitely the wild card in all this.

by SeeingStars on Jun 30, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand what you're saying.

In Lincecum, Cain, and sometimes even Johnson, they’ve got guys who can make a batter’s knees wobble at the plate. All of our starters are good or even great, but I don’t think any of them are really nasty enough on a regular basis to be scary.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 30, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Fielding

They’re 7th in total errors, we’re 21st. They’re 9th in FP, we’re 20th.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 30, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

come on we all know ur better than this… FP…. errors… really?

i dont know how reliable this is as a stat, but the Braves UZR/150 is the third worst in baseball (however we are also the third best int he NL East)… with -5.1. The only teams worse are the Nationals and the Mets (and the Mets have had a majority of their everyday players hurt..not that i want to make excuses for the Mutts or anything)

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Jun 30, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm aware of those numbers...

But frankly, these ones are ok when evaluating a team’s performance, and they’re easier to pull up.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 30, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions

thats fine… but uve set the bar slighlty higher for urself

and i was completely kidding

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?

by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST

by Swo12bv on Jun 30, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha...

Fair enough.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 30, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Ouch! That hurts...

by calbers on Jul 1, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Is Bobby living in the past?

When he works the game is he still seeing a lineup that has Justice and Fred McGriff, Ron Gant, Texiera, etc where we can wait for the three run homer? The reality is that with our line up there isn’t going to be many 3 run homers!

by calbers on Jun 30, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

It's Not That Hard To Figure Out...

Look at the stats, man. Our pitching/defense really isn’t comparable, as you claim. We’ve allowed 329 runs, they’ve given opponents just 282. On the flip side, we’ve scored only 308 and they’re right at our heels with 305. The result is that we’re at -21 and they’re at +23. If those 44 runs aren’t enough to mathematically explain the difference in our records, perhaps the level of opposition and some luck/randomness would shore up the gap.

By the way, I wasn’t surprised to see your reference to Bochy in the original post turn out to be a not-so-thinly veiled shot at Bobby Cox in the comments; that’s fine, really, but why play coy? If you think he’s lost it (or perhaps never did have it) you won’t be alone here. If you think he just needs to make adjustments (get mad, put runners in motion, mix-up the line-up, etc.) then say so freely.

"A player who conjugates a verb in the first person singular cannot be part of the squad, he has to conjugate the verb in the first person plural. We. We want to conquer. We are going to conquer. Using the word 'I' when you're in a group makes things complicated." ~ Wanderley Luxemburgo, 1999

by ejruiz on Jun 30, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

I didn't mean it as a "shot on Bobby" nor was I being "coy" by saying Bochy.

I think Bochy has always been an underrated manager. He had success with teams in San Diego that often seemed to be overachieving. I think he probably deserves some credit for making the Giants as competitive as they are right now. So it was meant as more of a prop for Bochy then a shot at Bobby.

My point with the previous comment about the three run homer wasn’t intended to be a “shot” but I think it has some merit. We don’t work our offense like a team that is struggling. We don’t run much….we don’t move the runners over more then any other team….etc. I would think with a team that is struggling you would see more effort to make runs and put pressure on other teams. I watch the team right now and I do think the team is run like a team that has more thump then we have. It looks like we are sitll waiting for the 3 run homer.

As for Bobby I would contend that his strength is clubhouse and player management. He has done an excellent job of managing the team as a whole and keeping the various personalities in check and that has enough value to make him one of the better managers in the league.

Was I being sarcastic…yes. I was probably being a little sarcastic…but it wasn’t meant as a shot…nor was I being “coy.”

As for the stats…thanks for the inromraiton…I hadn’t looked at the differential yet. I didn’t realize that their pitching had been THAT hot….282 is a really low number and you are right…that explains most of the difference. However, I would argue that their line up is probably weaker then ours on paper and I think they are doing a better job of creating runs and winning tight games. Something I would like to see us the Braves do more often.

by calbers on Jun 30, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

It’s an interesting point that you make about “manufacturing” runs. Considering our pitching, we could conceivably play for single runs at a time and hope for the best. That said, this team isn’t quite built that way either. Just because you don’t have power, that doesn’t mean you have speed. Guys like Anderson and Kotchman certainly don’t have either. For whatever reason, Francoeur and Johnson have never been all that successful when they try to steal. Chipper and McCann can’t be expect to run. That leaves Yunel and CF…

by ejruiz on Jun 30, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

True...we don't have a lot of raw speed...

But we have a couple guys who can run…I would like to see Blanco in the line up more. If you have McClouth and Blanco you have plus speed. Guys like Diaz, JOhnson, Escobar, and Jeff can run some-but overall I agree with what you are saying. However when you have guys like Kotchman, Prado, McCann, Jones, and McClouth…all pretty good contact guys…you can put more people in motion…be more aggressive on the 1st to 3rd route.

I would also argue that while an out is an out…..however, if you are burried in a game….then green light some guys. If you are ahead in a game by a wide margin…run. It is often the THREAT of running that creates the pressure-not the actual base stealing at that specific moment.

by calbers on Jul 1, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

don’t work our offense like a team that is struggling. We don’t run much….we don’t move the runners over more then any other team….

Someone posted this in another thread, but I think it has merit here:

Sacrifice % (70% to 71%)
Productive out % (33% Braves and league average)
Scoring runners on 3rd w/less than two outs (53% to 51%)

The first number in parenthesis is the Braves’ percentage on the season, the second is the league average. This completely proves your statement false.

Additionally, the braves are currently ranked 14th in the NL in the SB department with 28 SBs. However, over the past 2 weeks, the Braves rank 7th in the NL with 17 SBs and only 2 CS (which during the same time-frame, the 2 CS also is #1 in the NL).

To say that they are not getting runners over, or doing the little things, or moving into scoring position is just flat out incorrect.

I would rather have 17 SBs with 2 CS than 38 SB with 19 CS.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 30, 2009 4:08 PM EDT reply actions

Reply fail

this was in response to Calbers post…i guess my quote box gets me out of trouble this time…

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 30, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Not the past 2 weeks

that should be the past 30 days…my bad.

I am doing a great job of ruining a good post…

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 30, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Good information

I don’t think they AREN’T doing it…nor do I think that they are executing poorly. However, given that our offense is doing so badly that I would expect to see those number HIGHER then the league average as a sign that we are trying to create MORE runs. Doing these things at the league average ISN’T working.

As for the recent trend in SBs for the Braves that may be a sign that thigns are changing and I am sure that having Nate helps those numbers. Maybe my comments are mute as I am not seeing a recent trend that has developed.

by calbers on Jun 30, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Caught Stealing isn't always a bad thing...

I realize that a sabermetrics guy would beat me for saying this but I am a believer that the THREAT of running has some value. I think that with everyone, but Nate, the opposing pitcher is able to concentrate almost entirely on the batter. I would like to see them forced to pay some attention to the runners in hopes of creating a mistake. In order to create that threat you are likely to have more runners get caught stealing. So I would be more ok with that.

by calbers on Jun 30, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

a CS is an out

outs are never good things unless they directly result in a run scored.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 30, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

The problem is,

We’re league average at those things, combined with bottom of the league power. If you have no power, you need to be better than average at the little things.

by Lennox on Jun 30, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point.

I was mainly posting in response to an incorrect statement though. I have no problem with differences of opinions, but when people are just making crap up, it kinda irks me.

But yes, I agree that we need to be better at “small ball”, but for someone to say that we don’t do it, or that we do it worse than anyone (which is how I interpreted that comment above), that is just bs.

"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 30, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I was the one who posted those numbers...

But it should be noted that they only tell part of the story. We may be relatively successful when we do try those things, but it doesn’t mean we do much of them. If we’re producing at league average efficiency, but only on something like half of the league average chances, he might not be completely wrong.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 30, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

If it isn't working...fix it.

Part of the point I was trying to make is that we put together a good pitching team in the hopes of being able to win through pitching. However, our team off the field is made up like a team that has power and a big offense. Only problem is we don’t have that offense. We aren’t playing good defense…and we all realize that our power is pathetic, and we don’t get on base at a really high clip. Therefore it makes it really hard for us to win the 3-2, 2-1, or 4-3 games. If our pitching is as good as we want it to be then maybe we should be changing our approach and working to win close games. That would mean relying less on the 3 run homer and work to get a runner in scoring position and score on a single. Maybe that means stealing…maybe that means sacrificing. But right now we don’t have enough offense to contend. If we aren’t going to go out and get 1 or 2 big bats then we need to find another way to score enough runs.

by calbers on Jul 1, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions