The Braves Kelly Johnson is an albatross in the lineup

by gondeee on Jun 24, 2009 5:01 PM EDT Comment 34 comments

The guys over at Rowland's Office came up with these pitiful numbers about our second baseman, Kelly Johnson:

20 — Games since Kelly Johnson had an RBI hit.
17 – Games since Kelly got more than one hit in a game.
19 — Games since Kelly got 3 hits in a game.
4 — Hits by Martin Prado in his past 5 at-bats.
4 — Hits by Kelly in his past 35 at-bats.
7 — RBIs for Kelly in the season’s first 7 games.
8 — RBIs for Kelly in his past 26 games.
.203, .297, .138 — Kelly’s batting averages for the months of April, May and June.
2/12 — Kelly’s RBIs and total bases in June.
3/13 — Backup catcher David Ross’s RBIs and total bases in June.
220 — National Leaguers with better on base percentages than Kelly.
Jame Moyer — the person just ahead of Kelly on the NL OBP list.
Guess who’s starting at second tonight?

Yuck. But Bobby Cox just keeps trotting him out there every day hoping he will play his way out of his funk.

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Sigh.

At least hes the only one not producing on our team.

by oVecKid on Jun 24, 2009 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

…

by oVecKid on Jun 24, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but if he had gotten more hits then his numbers would be different….

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Jun 24, 2009 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree…..

by HEYJUDE on Jun 25, 2009 4:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, he’s in a slump, obviously he should be DFA’d.

by Lennox on Jun 24, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

“It’s a jump to conclusions mat!”

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Jun 24, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a mat that has different "conclusions" that you can "jump" to.

"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Jun 24, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I’m gonna do a writeup about the Kelly Johnson situation tonight thats actually educated as opposed to arbitrary DURRRR HE’S NOT DOING TOO GOOOOOOOOD statistics.

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by bigjoe on Jun 24, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Let Prado get rested up, then play him at 2nd

"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews ~ RIP Roi
(self-appointed President of Yunel's Cartel~~~)

by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Jun 24, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kelly Johnson is less of an offensive hole at 2B than Kotchman is at 1B right now, and much, much less of a hole than Francoeur is in RF. There’s a lot of complaining lately about the third biggest problem in the line-up.

And unlike those two guys, there’s plenty of signs in his previous history and in his supplemental stats (like BABIP) to suggest he should come out of it. He’s been among the best hitters at his position in two previous years, and he’s much less a butcher with the glove than people accuse him of being.

And concerning Prado, he’s banged up and not a great 2B at the best of times. I’d much rather see him playing first base if he’s going to be in the line-up.

by Bronn on Jun 24, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The point is that, we do not have any better to play 1B and RF. We do have someone better behind KJ in Prado. Even banged up, Prado has been putting up better numbers than KJ. With the way our offense is right now, we can’t afford to have two black holes in the lineup, in FYF and KJ.

by dlkinser86 on Jun 24, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No...

Prado is not better than Johnson, in the field or at the plate. Try looking at several years of data, not a couple of weeks.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 24, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now that is a SMALL sample size that you are comparin Prado defense at 2B. I mean YOU play 2B, 1B, and 3B and see how your defense is. KJ just has to play 2B each and every day he doesn’t have to try to learn other positions and play other infield positions. I like Prado defense more than KJ i bet if Prado played everyday in one position i bet his defense rating gets alot better. Its NOT easy havin to play 3 positions in the infield not easy at all.

And as far as offense goes how is KJ better than Prado at the plate last year and this year? KJ is about the streakiest guy i have ever seen. Last year i remember some kind of stat showin how he hit like .208 with 3 homers and about 20 RBI’s during about 3 months then the other 3 months of the year he hit like .280-.300 and had way more of everything. I dont believe if we started Prado everyday that Prado would be that damn streaky. But we can have this argument all day long wont change your opinion of him and wont change my opinion of him no matter what either of us say. Only way we will know is if Prado is the starting 2B in the majors. I really like the way Prado hits, he hits the ball good every single time his bat is explosive even though he doesn’t hit too many homers.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jun 24, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So your argument is utility = he’s allowed to have shoddy defense?

BravesHeart, my new, corporate-sponsored blog - NEW STUFF DAILY!!!

by bigjoe on Jun 24, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

YOU play all those positions like he does and see just how good your defense is. Sometimes you make errors especially if your playin all over the damn infield. Lets see him start ONLY at 2B and continue to start THEN we will see how he does. Until then i dont wanna hear the BS small defensive package and already rate him an awful defensive 2B cause that is absurd come up with a better argument OR shut up.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jun 25, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don’t buy that argument.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 25, 2009 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Me neither.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 25, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hi.

by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 25, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Loyalty

It really goes without saying that Bobby is loyal to his players, but KJ has rewarded this loyalty before. How quickly we forget the horrendous start KJ had to his major league career. Everyone thought Bobby should have the kid sent down, but he kept giving him chances to succeed and eventually KJ went on a tear and rewarded his coach.

Obviously the current situation is different because he is not a rookie, but KJ has been put in situations were it is hard for him to succeed. He has been moved up and down the order which has caused him to frequently change his approach at the plate. If he is left down in the order and given a chance to figure this out, he will eventually reward the team’s patience. The problem is that Francouer is continually given chances with no hope for improvement. KJ still gives us good AB’s, but Francouer needs to be benched in favor of blanco, diaz, bjones, barton, ron gant, my neighbor down the street; at this point anyone would be a better option.

Let’s not act like replacing KJ solves our problems because our problem is the same one we have had since last year and yes I am looking at you FYF. Maybe my faith in KJ is misplaced, but I would argue that your faith in Prado is as well. I love the guy, but he is not a long term solution.

by gutisking on Jun 24, 2009 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To be fair...

Prado is probably a little too banged up right now to play in the field.

Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur

A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.

by timmy3 on Jun 24, 2009 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh, so more small sample size nonsense. Cool.

by 17843 on Jun 24, 2009 6:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You guys do realize that Bobby is already platooning them, we just happen to have run into a few RHP in a row, I’m sure Prado will start tomorrow when we face Andy, regardless of what KJ does tonight.

by Lennox on Jun 24, 2009 6:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We have a streaky second basemen whose been an .800 OPS player over the past two years. He will go on a tear at some point and everyone will calm down.

If you want to platoon him with Prado until he heats up, fine but once Kelly gets going, its his job again imo. I’m frustrated with his struggles too but Kelly’s an established offensive 2B. He looks awful right now but he’s been this way before, only this one is lasting longer. His numbers should trend back towards his baseline.

On the plus side, he’s playing the best defense of his career and has a 1.5 UZR.

"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."

by jeg on Jun 24, 2009 6:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

http://bravesheart.com/2009/06/24/the-second-base-situation/

Inhale…exhale

BravesHeart, my new, corporate-sponsored blog - NEW STUFF DAILY!!!

by bigjoe on Jun 24, 2009 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Good read, Joe.

Here’s to hoping his luck comes around.

"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Jun 25, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bobby needs to see those numbers

by Heyward is the next crime dog on Jun 24, 2009 8:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kelly isn’t broken, he’s just in a slump and having horrible luck. Fangraphs shows it all. His plate discipline has actually improved, only swinging at 23.3% of balls outside the strikezone as opposed to 25.6% last season. His contact % is up and flyball % is up while linedrive % is down. Basically, he is making contact more than he used to, but it’s resulting in more flyballs.

As has been said, the huge difference is in BABIP. His BABIP was .330 and .344 the last two seasons, and .247 this year. A huge difference that sticks out like a sore thumb. He is more disciplined, but the balls he is hitting aren’t line drives as often and now more often being hit right at a defender. BABIP will regress to the mean soon enough, it’s up to Pendleton to find out if there is a reason that he is hitting the ball higher, or if it’s just part of the bad luck.

as an aside, Frenchy swings at 35% of balls outside the strikezone

by Eltoasto on Jun 25, 2009 1:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

3 months last year was unlucky as well huh?

There is only so many times you can call a player unlucky. Maybe he is unlucky well until he gets lucky he sucks.

braves#1

by rockybull on Jun 25, 2009 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How is it hard to believe he was unlucky in April and July, lucky in May and September, and not either in June and August? Do you have any idea how variable stats are in small sample sizes? A month (~100 PAs) is a pretty small sample. For example, OBP, SLG, and OPS take 500 PAs to stabilize; K% takes 150 PAs to stabilize; FB% takes 250 PAs; etc, etc. Batting average is so variable that it doesn’t stabilize in season at any point.

Knowing that, how the hell can we judge whether Kelly Johnson sucks, is slumping, or is unlucky based on just 250 PAs when his peripheral stats (K%, BB%, isolated power, Contact %, etc.) are all at or better than 2008? The only thing out of whack with him is his batted ball profile which explains some of his BABIP drop (but not nearly all of it) and his ridiculously low batting average. How is it unreasonable, knowing all this, to chalk up his poor batting average to some degree of bad luck?

by 17843 on Jun 25, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs