Indirect Value of McLouth Trade???
by Charmin519 on Jun 10, 2009 11:22 AM EDT
46 comments
On June 3rd the braves made a public effort to improve their team on many fronts. First, they cut ties with a true Hall of Famer despite his tireless work ethic and established relationship with the organization. Second, they called up one of the highest regarded pitching prospects in the game and moved another promising pitcher to aid the bullpen. There have been numerous opinions on the Glavine, Hanson, Medlen saga but one fact remains that the Braves made the shift to the future.
During this entire ordeal the Braves made a significant short term and long term trade for Mclouth. Short term, the braves acquire an impact bat with speed for their pedestrian outfield. They gave up valuable prospects in Morton, Gorky’s, and Locke. Though these prospects will undoubtedly contribute to future Buc teams they in most regards were blocked from the Braves MLB roster.
Long term, the braves acquired Frenchy replacement. With the braves star CF prospect Schafer back in the minors this might not be as apparent. Schafer struggled mightily at the plate but glimpses of his ability were evident from his first at bat. Mclouth is currently holding the reigns at CF but will undoubtedly give way to the superior defense of Schafer once he is called back from the minors or at the latest the beginning of the 2010 season. In addition to the new speed and pop in the outfield our Frenchy replacement is under contract until 2011 with an option for 2012.
Can Franceour turn it around this season? He might but it will only build value to his ultimate trade. If he can’t turn it around he could very well be on the road to a release. Mclouth (Frenchy Replacement) makes this possible.
With the new outfield of Schafer and Mclouth and lack of Frenchy the braves have upgraded their outfield and allowed more flexibility in acquiring a right handed power bat for 2010. With Heyward possibly breaking camp in 2010 or 2011 the braves have a future power bat in waiting. This allows the braves to go after 1 or 2 year options in LF to secure power without overpaying for Holliday or Bay. With the abundance of LH hitters in the lineup players such as Kelly Johnson become expendable. Johnson was part of many offseason rumors and will undoubtedly be trade bait this offseason and the fact remains that he was included in the Ludwick talks this past offseason. With the deep 2010 2B free agent class the braves could overlook their inability to replace Johnson internally. Johnson’s value is down now but as a streaky hitter he could build it back anyday.
Kotchman becomes a LH bat that’s expendable. He could draw many suitors being a cheap, under contract, line drive, good defender 1B. Though free agent 1B aren’t deep in 2010; Vazquez and or the extra money from Hudson could play a factor in this scenario. Jorge Cantu comes to mind as a replacement.
Can the braves deal Johnson or Kotchman this offseason? Yes and Mclouth makes this possible because the braves don’t necessarily need to acquire their power LF anymore. Would it be nice to have a power LF? Yes Does it have to be a LF now? In my opinion, NO.
The addition of Mclouth has allowed the braves to not only contend now but also the flexibility to form a very good roster in 2010. Instead of only looking for a RH outfielder they can pursue other creative options to upgrade their roster this season and beyond. The Buc’s may or may not win the deal based on statistics in a few years but it’s clear that the Braves and the McClouth trade will allow the once dominate franchise to contend in 2010 and beyond.
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1. I thought the Ludwick rumors proved to be just that – rumors…
2. I wouldn’t mind trading KJ, but that would just create another hole to fill
3. I do NOT want to trade Kotchman. He is one of the best defensive 1B in the game and has a good knack for hitting. Sure, he lacks HR power, but like you said, we have power coming up through the system. Plus he is a cheap option who is locked up for a while.
I don’t understand why we would create 2 or 3 holes in our team (by trading one of our best SP, our 2B and our 1B) just to fill a hole in LF…it doesn’t make much sense to me.
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 10, 2009 12:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yesterday Bill Shanks said he would trade Kotchman for Laroche. It didn’t bother him that Laroche is a free agent at the end of the season, and Kotchman is signed for a few more years.
Then his partner Skip said he wasn’t impressed with McLouth by this reason “he seems the same as Francouer, they’ve got the same batting average”…
"Ohhhh Shit."-Bobby Cox, 3/28/09
by 10-4 on Jun 10, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have no words…
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 10, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im glad the Laroche fiastco in Atalanta is over. He has some pop, but is the worlds best hitter when up by 5 or more. I don’t want to think how many times I saw him fly out or strike out in clutch situations. Kotchmand may not have the power, but is conisistant.
by wcubmac on Jun 10, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prado could probably be just as good a 2B as Kelly.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 10, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i've heard
that the metrics beg to differ – significantly. I don’t know for certain (I am not a stat-geek), but I am sure that I have heard/read the differences on here somewhere.
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 10, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hard to say…his sample sizes are small, but his defense appears to be worse than KJ’s and his offense in 2008 was propelled by a really high BABIP.
by Smoltz's Beard on Jun 10, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hole
2)I don’t think we will trade Johnson until the offseason but we could easily address the hole with the 2010 class of 2B
3) Your right we have power COMING up in the system but it’s not hear yet and most likely won’t break camp as a starter in 2010. So you have a need for at least a year. I’m not advocating for Kotchman to be moved but rather pointing out that the flexibiliy is there to do so because of McLouth pop in our awful OF.
Your not creating holes if you backfill them. If you trade Kelly then you already have a guy in mind to pick up for 2B. The point of the post was the flexibility the front office has now.
by Charmin519 on Jun 10, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really like our team right now Excluding frenchy. I think our team will be best in 2011 with heyward and Schafer ready to help. I dont want the braves to trade for another player to fill a void for 1 year like kotsay. with our farm system and current major league team we should just wait for the younger guys and then make smaller trades without giving up impact prospects.
by Heyward is the next crime dog on Jun 10, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Don't agree with much of what you claim
McLouth is not going to RF if / when Schafer returns for next year — he’d be best suited in LF. McL is a below average CF and a worse RF according to the available statistics. His defense in LF is average to slightly above, with a bat that is average to slightly above. Moving McL to right actually hurts his value to the team.
There’s no reason that I see to trade Kotchman. Even though he has missed the last 7 games, he’s still 3rd or 4th on the team in extra base hits, granted they are mostly doubles. His gap power is not Pujols-esque, but he’s not exactly a liability, and as mentioned plays true gold-glove defense for a pitching staff that features Lowe and Jurrjens (i.e. pitch-to-contact). He has 2 arb-eligible years left, at which point Freddie Freeman is the presumed successor.
KJ has underperformed this season to date. However, if we fill RF with a competent player, and KJ is the “worst” player on the team, I’d happily take that rather than try and trade by patching holes in one place (RF) and creating holes in another (2B). KJ has been “down” recently, but he has demonstrated periods where he can get red hot. If we ask him to be our #7/8 hitter, I’m sure we’ll be more than pleased with what we get from him there.
What, if anything, we have done with the McL acquisition is fill one of the two corner outfield spots (LF) for next year for a bargain price of 5M. Instead of a minimum 4 positions to address (LF, RF, Closer, Setup), we now only have 3 positions to worry about (assuming a healthy and productive Schafer in CF), and ~15M to spend on them.
by fphjr01 on Jun 10, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fielding Metrics
are BS. They’re doubly BS when based on less than 70 games of data. He hasn’t played enough in either LF or RF to pretend those numbers mean anything. The only real difference between LF an RF is the arm strength RFs need to throw runners out at 3rd. McLouth has enough arm to play RF.
by OldDutchPots on Jun 10, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
THIS
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 10, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
McLouth has 67 games in RF
worth of data, and 31 in LF. So we are 3 games short of your arbitrary statistical threshold. And while I agree that current metrics are not optimal, they are all we have that is subjective to go on at this point. Otherwise, all that is left is “jeter plays gold glove shortstop”, which IMO is worse than a UZR rating.
Feel free to dimiss them if you like. But your singular, personal evaluation of Nate’s arm strength (based on what by the way?) in my mind doesn’t outweigh a marginal statistical evaluation of his performance.
by fphjr01 on Jun 10, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The non-delusional fan has known for years that Jeter’s range is limited and his arm sucks without looking at metrics. The problem is that awards like gold gloves, silver sluggers, and MVPs are decided by the AP, and they’re always late to the party when it comes to realizations. For example, look at your top 3 finishers for the 2007 MVP. 1) They don’t include David Wright. 2) Jimmy Rollins won with an OPS+ of 118, 3) Matt Holliday, King of Coors Field, was the runner up.
I kind of hate fielding metrics. Even the people who lobby for them will admit that you need about 2 seasons worth of data to draw any serious conclusions from them. That’s a problem because over the course of 300 games, a guy might deal with various different injuries, or he might conceivably get better or worse within that span. There’s the issue of park factor, which is largely unaccounted for. Then there’s the issue of comparing a defensive player with a replacement level defensive player (which is impossible because each batted ball in unique, so you don’t have two guys seeing the same opportunity). Hit f/x should correct a lot of this, so I’m waiting on that.
Finally, if you insist on looking at fielding metrics, you simply adjust Nate’s UZR/150 margin to compensate for the different between being a center fielder and right fielder, and he basically translates to average, maybe a tad below. I still disapprove because these translations are fairly arbitrary and include a lot of guess-work like much else involved in fielding metrics.
by Bronn on Jun 11, 2009 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree as well
I’ll give you the LF vs. RF scenario
I wasn’t advocating a Kotchman trade but rather pointing out the new found flexibility the front office has to acquire a power bat at multiple positions. He was just an example of a position where we could pick up power that we still need.
KJ trade before the deadline is not what I was advocating at all. I was pointing out that there is a big free agent class of decent 2B options that could backfill Kelly Johnson if he was included in a trade for power. Once again, the Mclouth trade gave the braves options because all they have to do is fill one more outfield spot. KJ is very expendable and has drawn interest in the past.
McL did fill one of the corner outfield spots and you are correct that we now only have to address Closer, setup, another OF, + your bench guys.
We are also more around 19-20 million even with arb guesstimates (assuming you don’t have frenchy’s contract anymore). You only need to resign either Gonzo or Soriano and not both. 7 million absolutely tops for either. Gonzo more likely 5.5 million. So your saying we can’t get a setup man and an OF or 2B for 12 million? Pa-lease this isn’t 2006-2007.
by Charmin519 on Jun 10, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Name me the 2B and RF
that you will get for 12M on the FA market or through a trade. Keep in mind McLouth is in “arb eligible years” (i.e. FA make more than a player in arb years), and is making 5M next year when you attempt to fulfill the promise you just made.
by fphjr01 on Jun 10, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First, I said OF or 2B
20 Million Budget
Gonzo- 6 million
2B options if Kelly Johnson is traded (which gives us more money to spend and also assumes that we traded for either a bullpen arm or prospects) But for the sake of the argument that we could back fill Kelly at a good price here ya go.
Felipe Lopez- 4 millionish
Polanco- 4 millionish
Hudson- 7 millionish
Sanchez- 8.5 millionish
Iwamura- 4 millionish
Marco Scutaro- 2millionish
Dan Uggla- 6 millionish in 2010 plus trade not free agent till 2012
Clint Barmes- 2 millionish via trade + their stud 2b is in waiting in Colorado
to name a few
RF options
Dye (tops 12 million)
Mags (tops 12 million)
Nady- (tops 7 million
Cameron-10 million tops
The possilbe trades are endless and don’t pull the WHY would they trade him? Why did the pirates trade Mclouth? It fit there plans and we had the prospects. Here are teams just off the top of my head that can and have the means to deal some of their OF nationals, rangers, twins, orioles, blue jays, houston, Marlins, rays, angels, and cardinals.
Now remember my original statement was that with 12 million we could get a SETUP man and either an OF or 2B option if Kelly was traded for one of the other holes. I THINK YOU MISSED THE WHOLE POINT OF MY POST. IT WAS TO POINT OUT THE FLEXIBILITY THAT THE OFFICE NOW HAS IF A SITUATION ARISES. WE NOW HAVE A POSSIBLE (2) PRODUCTIVE OUTFIELDERS IN 2010!!!!!!!
by Charmin519 on Jun 10, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree to an extent
Good post,
Charmin519 but I must agree to disagree with you on a few things. First off this offseason is way to early to call I mean we have just started the second week of June for god sake, secondly I believe that Huddy, Vasquez, and Kotchman will be part of the Braves this season & next, and Kotchman will not be gone until Freeman is ready to be an everyday MLB player. I still believe however that Frenchy will be dealt at this year trading deadline, more than like to the Royals or another small market team that can take a chance that he can turn it around, in ATL we have run out of patience and time with him. I do like the idea of Cantu but not as our everyday 1B, and Kelly Johnson see ya at the trading deadline or this coming offseason. Use a platoon with Infante and or Prado full time and simply go out and get a Swisher/Nady middle of the road outfielder with some pop this offseason or at the deadline for another outfielder.
Lets us not forget that we still need to resign Gonzo at the end of the season and Soriano could be gone as well. Both we cost pretty good amts due to their performances this season.
My idea:
Kelly Johnson & Frenchy
to Royals for
Jose Gullien & Alberto Callaspo
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Jun 10, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jose Gullien
is about the only player that has as bad a WAR as FYF. His bat may be better, but his defense is downright atrocious. You are basically swapping awful players, which doesn’t improve either team (i.e. this makes 0 sense). KJ’s value is not as a leadoff guy — he’s plenty solid for a 7/8 hitter, which is really where he should be.
by fphjr01 on Jun 10, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freakin typos you get the idea
Sorry guys for the terrible spelling. IMAO
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Jun 10, 2009 2:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I just had a thought...
Could Kotchman potentially be our 3B of the future??? I hate to lose the guy. He is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. With Freeman on his way up, could Kotch move to 3rd?
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 10, 2009 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
When was the last time you saw a throws left-handed player playing on the left side of the infield?
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Jun 10, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Let me re-phrase, when was the last time yous aw a throws left-handed player playing on the left side of the infield in professional baseball?
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Jun 10, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don Mattingly...
BOOM!
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 10, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice. It’s true, granted, it’s only 3 games and 18 innings worth of it, but still, it’s true.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Jun 10, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there were some others too
but only 4 have ever played more than 50 games at 3B.
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 10, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
never even thought about that…
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 10, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Technically, I have never seen it
but, Hick Carpenter played an incredible 1059 games at third base as a left hander…way back in 1879 – 1892.
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 10, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kotchman to RF, move Chipper to 1B, Escobar to 3B, and Schafer to SS. Schafer’s speed, footwork, and cannon of an arm would look great there!
by VictorW on Jun 10, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Har har…
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 10, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please
Why not bring back the short safety position in shallow right, and just have Escobar stand behind second base, and cover all of the left side of the infield with McLouth? Kotchman plays short safety, and since half the RF work is done, Francoeur can be cut and be replaced with damn near any outfielder, since they will have less ground to cover.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Jun 10, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is going to happen is the Braves will option Hudson if healthy, and probably trade Vaquez. Either for a left fielder or prospects. Thats nearly 13 mil right there. Resign either Soriano or Gonzalez, both if cheap enough, If they could get both for around 8 to 10 mil then great. Im not sure why we would trade Kotchman, we arn’t going to get another 1st baseman that will do what he does and is affordable. McLouth and a good left fielder would allow an improved lineup to keep Frenchy, for one more year, giving us a little more time to evaluate him, and Haywood to develop. The idea that we can get an entire team that would hit over .300 is a wet dream. Frenchy and Johnson at the bottom of our lineup is just as good as anyone elses 7 and 8 hitters. I think we are on the right path now after what has gone on. Clearing smoltz and glavine had to be done, best for the team and organization.
by wcubmac on Jun 10, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What about Victor Martinez? He could provide us with a power, right-handed bat, that is not to expensive, IMO.
What about Victor Martinez? He could provide us with a power, right-handed bat, that is not to expensive, IMO. (5.7 mill this year, 7 mill next, with 250K buyout). Not sure what it would take to get him though. They are pretty much out of it, so they would want prospects. I was thinking some sort of 3-way involving Vazquez to a team for prospects, then take the prospects + Kotchman for Martinez (not exactly but you get the gist)
I completely agree though, the McLouth trade definitely makes us more versatile in trying to patch our needs.
by dlkinser86 on Jun 10, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not sure I like V Mart
I am not sure I like V Mart
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 10, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Martinez is still good, young, and relatively cheap.
I don’t think he’s one they’d want to give away.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 10, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kotchman vs Loney
So last week, a friend and I had quite a debate on who would you rather have as your first basemen. Casey Kotchman or James Loney. I’m a Braves fan and he’s a Dodgers fan. I took Kotchman he took Loney. I know that Loney has 40+ RBI’s right now, but I couldn’t seem to get him to understand that if you look at everything else (OBP, OPS, defensive metrics) Kotchman has basically outperformed Loney to this point. And if Kotchman had the same opportunities that Loney has had, he would have the same or if not better raw numbers than Loney.
The thing that I can’t understand is he asked “unbiased” people in his fantasy leagues about who to take. Every one said Loney. Am I just off my rocker thinking that the two are essentially the same hitter and Kotchman just plays better defense?
by dunnytwogloves on Jun 10, 2009 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does fantasy league value defense?
If not, then Loney is the correct fantasy pick. With an emphasis on fantasy
by fphjr01 on Jun 10, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And we were basing it more on which guy would you rather have on your favorite MLB team. I just think they were basing it on Loney being a better fantasy player at this time. Although I have Loney on my fantasy team, and all he is good for is runs and RBI’s.
by dunnytwogloves on Jun 10, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty much...
But Loney’s younger and faster and Kotch is harder to strike out.
Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.
by MichaelProcton on Jun 10, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
Im not sure there is much difference, just seeing kotchman play I think he is better. If he had that lineup in front of him, I would say he would have very similar numbers across the board. Kotchmans D is better, so I would go with Kotchman
by wcubmac on Jun 10, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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