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Braves 2010 payroll -- Options for the future


There's been quite a bit of speculation recently about what the Braves could / should / might do with the roster for this year and 2010.  I'm in the camp that not much will happen this year, and if anything, we might sell.  The Braves are a .500 team to this point, and have played the easiest schedule in all of ML baseball to get there.  Not the markings of a playoff team.  So to help guide future couch GM's with actual numbers, here we go:

Star-divide

The total payroll for the Braves for this year is somewhere between $95 - 100M, and closer to the $95M.  For the purposes of this fanpost, I have assumed that the payroll will not be drastically increased, if at all for 2010.  So, anything you propose from here has to add up to somewhere in that range.  If we look at the players on the roster, there are several decisions to make:

Players with Option for 2010:  Tim Hudson, $12M

Arbitration Eligibles:  Jeff Francoeur, Casey Kotchman, Kelly Johnson, Matt Diaz, Peter Moylan, Jeff Bennett.  There is an outside chance that Yunel will become a Super 2, but it is very unlikely at this point. 

Free Agents:  Raphael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Garrett Anderson, Tom Glavine, Greg Norton

Just to remind those scoring at home, a major league roster has 25 players, typically 12 pitchers and 13 position players.  My best guess as to the makeup of the 2010 roster will now follow, with known contracts included, and my estimates for arbitration for a few others.  Pre-arbitration players are assumed to make $0.5M for the purpose of simplicity

Starters:

1 - Derek Lowe - $15M

2 - Jair Jurrjens - $0.5M

3 - Javy Vasquez - $11M

4 - Kenshin Kawakami - $7.3M

5 - Tommy Hanson - $0.5M

 

Bullpen:

Closer - ???

8th inning - ???

7th inning - Moylan - $1.0M (my estimate)

6th inning - Bennett - $1.0M (my estimate)

Long Relief - Campillo - $0.5M

LOOGY - Eric O'F - $0.5M

"Mop up" - AAA callup - $0.5M

 

Position Players:

1B - Casey Kotchman - $4.0M (my estimate)

2B - Kelly Johnson - $3.5M (my estimate)

SS - Yunel Escobar - $0.5M

3B - Chipper Jones - $14M

C - Brian McCann - $5.5M

LF - ???

CF - Schafer - $0.5M

RF - ???

backup C - David Ross - $1.6M

4th OF - B Jones - $0.5M

Utility - Omar Infante - $2.2M

Utility - Martin Prado - $0.5M

Pinch Hitter - Greg Norton - $1.0M

 

Examining the above, I've left the LF / RF / Closer / Setup roles as "???" because LF / RF are black holes this year that demand attention, and we almost certainly won't keep both Soriano and Gonzalez.  I've assumed that we will bring back G Norton to pinch hit, and he doesn't cost much, but you are free to argue there.  As it stands now, we are "locked in" to a total of ~$72M, with about $38M of that in pitching and $34M of that for position players. 

Now, my comments about the roster:

1.  I think we can easily afford to keep either Soriano or Gonzalez, and offer a competitive salary for them.  Gonzo will probably be the cheaper of the two, and I estimate $6-8M would be more than enough to get him. 

2.  Tim Hudson's option for 2010 is $12M.  If we keep him AND pay to keep one of our own closers, we'll have about $8-10M left to fill both corner outfield spots AND a setup man.  That might get 1 better-than-average talent (and that's if we go cheap for the other spots), but certainly not an elite player (Bay or Holliday).  Thus I expect (hope?) that JV and Tim will be mutually exclusive.

3.  If #2 plays out the way I think it will, we will have almost $20M to go after an elite corner outfield spot, fill the other corner spot, and pay an established setup man if we so choose.  I much prefer this flexibility than signing both Tim and JV. 

4.  Implicit in the above is that FYF is gone -- either by trade or simply non-tendered.  Ditto for Glavine and Garrett Anderson.  Moylan will almost certainly be kept, and Bennett probably will too, unless he continues to be "unlucky" or just be bad, depending on your point of view.  I'm NOT suggesting that we non-tender Matt D, but if we can find a full time replacement, then maybe we run out of space for him.  Another option would be to show G Norton the door and have Matt D as a PH / 5th OF / utility guy.  Figure his salary in the $1-2M range.

My final comment also deals with Tim's option.  While picking it up AND keeping JV doesn't look like the best use of limited funds, what it DOES let us do is prevent our division rivals (i.e. Mets & Phillies) from simply signing him and dramatically improving their suspect pitching staffs.  Thus, while it may limit our flexibility to spend on offense, it may be wise to keep Tim in the fold -- that way we can try to trade Tim or JV, and control where they go, and don't improve the other NL east teams while we stand still.  There's also always the possibility that we get stiffed by FA's again and end up with nothing worth spending $ on, in which case, I'd definitely want Tim on the roster.

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First, nice rundown..

As you have clearly layed out we have two distinct needs that need two player each: Late inning relief and corner outfielders. There are many solutions to these holes but being a armchair GM this is how I would solve it with the ~23-25M to work with.

The late inning relief problem should start to be addressed here later in the summer. By this I mean that our promising in house canidates should be given chances in late high leverage innings. With Hanson or Glavine taking Medlen’s spot here in a few weeks, Medlen should be sent straight to a spot setup role. If he does well in his chances we should slot him in for 0.5M 8th inning work for next year. (insert other promising in house closer canidates for Medlen if you wish)
My next solution will be an unpopular one. When Hudson comes back and the DL/JJ/JV/KK/TH:G is still going strong, Huddy should go to the pen. Again, if he performs well, his relativity small frame, slightly advancing age, and arm strength could make the closer role the best fit for him. Giving him 12M to do this will rub some the wrong way but if we can have a veteran ace arm throwing arguably the most important 70 innings of the year who also has the ability to go back to the rotation if someone goes down, he would be worth 12M.
Some other advantages to using Huddy and Medlen in the 8th and 9th would be gaining all of the compensation picks from Gonzo and Soriano while also putting us in the position to trade a starter for a large haul midway through ’10 to get some blue chippers or a big bat.

23M – 12.5M = 10.5M

The corner outfield solution is not a simple one to be certain. In left we should go with a platoon of Diaz and B.Jones to start the season. There are several reasons for this: I believe that Bos/NYY will seriously outbid us for the two LF prizes this year (Bay/Holliday) in terms of years and cash. Outside of Damon, and I don’t think we can stomach his defense again in LF, there are no other appealing LF options. Also, leaving at least one corner open will leave the door open late in the season should Gorkys or Heyward be ready for a cup coffee or a mid-summer call up. Diaz should run around 1.5M and B.Jones around 0.5M for a 2.0M total.
In RF with the remaining ~8.5-11.5M (depending on final payroll) we could really address defense and offense in RF. The most appealing options would be Ankiel, DeRosa, Nady, Byrd, Andruw, Cameron, Crisp and maybe room to take on salary in a trade.

Just because I can I’ll do some rosterbation

2B 1. Johnson
SS 2. Escobar
3B 3. Chipper
C 4. McCann
RF 5. Ankiel (or other RF pickup)
1B 6. Kotchman
LF 7. Diaz/B.Jones (spot for uberprospect call-up)
CF 8. Schafer

That would be a very good defensive lineup that would produce solid but not fantasic offensive numbers.

The strength of the team would be the pitching:

Lowe
Jurrjens
Vazquez
Hanson
Kawakami (could be really good on 5th starter rest)

9th Hudson
8th Medlen
7th Valdez
GB/DP Moylan
LM Campillo
LOOGY O’Flaherty
Mopup Acosta

Bench:
PH Norton
INF Prado
UTL Infante
4OF Diaz/Jones
BUC Ross

by bbxxj on Jun 1, 2009 9:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Is it just me or....

does people spelling multiple names wrong make you think they’re less credible?

by BravesRaleigh on Jun 1, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Did I misspell any?

I looked over it again and couldn’t find any.

by bbxxj on Jun 1, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nah

Yours were perfect, fphjr or whatever spelled JV’s name “Vasquez” and Soriano’s first name as “Raphael”. Not typos, just not knowledgeable of our players.

by BravesRaleigh on Jun 1, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

eh, i’ve seen much worse.

"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."

by Bravely going forward on Jun 2, 2009 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh I know, nothing beats hearing about Jair Jirggens.

by BravesRaleigh on Jun 2, 2009 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To this extent, I think its just you. These are easily forgivable. I even had to look it up to see what was wrong with Raffy’s name.

by soup du jour on Jun 2, 2009 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Raphael.

"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."

by Bravely going forward on Jun 2, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yawn @ spellcheck police

But your totilly reght about my lack of knowings about teh Bravis palyerz. Sorrys for waisting iveryone’s timez…

by fphjr01 on Jun 2, 2009 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I swerze I knos dem, i jus caunt spruill.

I don’t expect everyone to be able to spell each player’s name perfectly. We have alot of casual Brave’s fans that visit the site and want voice their opinion. I’ve been misspelling Francouer (Francoeur) for awhile now, but I don’t really care.

Guy #1: Damn, these oysters are going to make us horny as hell...
Girl #2: Oh yeah, I forgot oysters are hermaphrodites.

by bwellnjonesco on Jun 2, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why pick Hudson’s option? Didn’t we learn with Hampton’s case? Why pay 12 million to a guy coming from Tommy John surgery?

I’d decline the option and sign him to a Manny Ramirez like contract for one year for less than the option and with a team option for a second year. If the guys shows he is healthy enough then negotiate an extension.

The bullpen can be very effective and cheap if given the chance to the young fireballers in the farm. Guys like Luis Valdez, Manny Acosta, Todd Redmond, Steven Marek, Jorge Campillo and even Jo Jo Reyes (if he is not traded before) are cheap, and young talent that can thrive in the bullpen.

I’d resign Soriano if healthy and if he is not too expensive. I don’t like Gonzalez, he is prone to bad control and loses it fast. And I’d get rid of Bennet.

The rotation is the strenght of the team so there is no problem there. Next year Tommy Hanson and Medlen/Morton should be starting full time, with Locke and Rourgbourgh knocking the door in AA or AAA; along with JJ, Lowe, Kawakami and Hudson (if signed).

This depth is the reason Vasquez is movable for an OF bat or a 1B. A package with Kotchman and Vasquez could get the Braves a big bat.

The infield should produce enough but I think it’s time to demote Schafer, get rid of Anderson and Francouer, sign at least a free agent (1B if Kotchman is traded or OF), let Infante play right field and platoon Diaz with Brandon Jones until Heyward and Schafer are ready to take over.

by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on Jun 2, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Steve Marek kinda sucks ass, man

"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?"
President, CEO, and chairman of the Brandon Jones fan club. PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK!

by bigjoe on Jun 2, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Based on what, exactly?

A bad month or two where he’s probably working out some kind of mechanical issue?

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 2, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, that as a 25 year old at the same level he was at last year, he has more walks than strikeouts, has a BAA above .300, and is allowing nearly a run an inning. But I’m sure its just a mechanical issue

"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?"
President, CEO, and chairman of the Brandon Jones fan club. PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK!

by bigjoe on Jun 2, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So what were the first five years of his career?

Smoke and mirrors?

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 2, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He’s always walked a ton of guys, and was helped by low BABIPs. His strikeout rate is remarkably the same to where it was in Mississippi last year.

"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?"
President, CEO, and chairman of the Brandon Jones fan club. PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK!

by bigjoe on Jun 2, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

3.2 BB/9 is a ton? High standards you've got there.

Remember, kids...don't ever let facts get in the way of your argument.

by MichaelProcton on Jun 2, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When you’re a middle reliever, its high.

"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?"
President, CEO, and chairman of the Brandon Jones fan club. PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK!

by bigjoe on Jun 2, 2009 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we don’t pick up his option Huddy will likely get scooped up by a team that really NEEDS pitching. We will get to see how he recovers from the TJ later this summer and if he does well with no setbacks picking up the option is a no brainer.

by bbxxj on Jun 2, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and Tim Hudson is NOT Mike Hampton. Let’s make that very clear.

by bbxxj on Jun 2, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

THIS

People will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again.

by mvandonsel on Jun 2, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wonder what Smoltz is doing next year

If he pitches well this year and wants to keep playing we know ATL will be in discussions with him at the very least. If he’d go back to the bullpen that could solve the impending closer problem. It’s not my style to predict at what cost though, merely a potential point of interest. I do love me some John Smoltz (queue mancrush).

by l0stnumber on Jun 3, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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