Should the Braves use Vazquez as trade bait

I’m not against trading Vazquez, but if we do we need to get someone serious in return. I don’t know what that would be, but something like an Adrian Gonzales (I know that would necessitate moving Kotchman as well so its not likely). But if it is done, it shouldn’t be done lightly.

But if this is entertained as a possibility by the Braves’ FO, then it will be done if and when Tom Glavine proves over a couple of starts that he can be successful starter (not great, but a decent back-end option). It makes no sense to trade Vazquez now though. If Glavine comes back and bombs, then you’re stuck with Lowe, Jurrjens, KK, and two rookies (probably Hanson and Medlen) and relying on two rookies is not something that FW is going to want to do. Though, if Glavine is at least decent, the prospect of trading Vazquez becomes much more interesting. Hanson is certainly ready to be called up and the way he’s pitching, Vazquez could get us the bat we all so desperately want.

If we trade Vasquez, I will bitch about it endlessly (unless we get Pujols in return).

Although, one could make the argument that JV’s trade value has never been nor will never be higher than it is right now.

This is why I never understood signing Kawakami over Dunn …

How Hudson will pitch off the TJ (and if he’ll even be back next season if he does pitch well), how Glavine will pitch, how Hanson will adjust to the ML level, and, even how Kawakami will pitch as the season wears on are all major question marks for us.

So we really can’t afford to deal Vazquez until we know how those things will shake out.

I’m against it as well. As I told cbwilk in another thread, I’d be for trading Lowe, but I know that Vazquez has more trade value right now.

It’ll be interesting to see what the Braves do.

A few minutes ago I posted in the “Derosa thread” that we should trade Vasquez. He is in a peak point right now. He is not going to KO 11 every 9 innings. He is not going to be any better. The most likely scenario is he is going downhill.

He is prone to the bad inning syndrome. Three games come to my mind, the game vs the Mets the Braves were winning 3- 0 and he gave 6 runs in two innings, the game vs the Cardinals in which he gave 5 runs in a inning and last monday vs SFO when he couldn’t reach the 7th inning with one of the worst lineups in MLB.

Even if he continues being this good, the Braves would have a good starting rotation with Lowe, Jurjens, Hanson and Medlen/Morton
 
If I were Wren, I’d put Glavine in the bullpen and let either Morton or Medlen start and the odd one out being placed in the bullpen with Glavine.

Package Vasquez with either Campillo, Reyes, Brandon Jones, Francouer, Parr and get a big bat.

Finally make an addition by substraction and demote Moylan and Bennet and not playing Francouer and Garret Anderson anymore.

We kinda talked about this a couple weeks ago with the Hudson thing…what we do with Vazquez depends a lot on what we do with Hudson. If his option is picked up and he’s put in the rotation, someone has to go, and that person is likely Vazquez. If Hudson’s option ISN’T picked up…well, Vazquez shouldn’t go anywhere

I believe it has to be a deadline deal. If we are 500 or below, we unload him and hope to move on with our returns. If we are still within 5 games we keep him. With Hudson coming back, Glavine coming back, Hanson, Medlen, Morton, and Reyes all needing to play in the show, or get us some return we have depth. His good first half has his trade value MUCH higher then it was this winter, so we should get more back then the Flowers and scrubs package we gave up for him.

None of us were really expecting to compete this year. Sure, there was a lot of promise, but we know that our window of opportunity starts in 2010, 2011 and 2012. I hope the FO doesnt get tunnel vision and forget bout 2010 and beyond.

But, I also think that JV should be part of our plans for 2010 and beyond. He is an incredible talent and a proven, legit top of the rotation starter.

Javier Vasquez has never been a top of the rotation starter. He is a 30 something pitcher who is prone to bad innings; besides he is an NL pitcher. When he was with the Yankees and White Sox he never was more than a #4 starter. He is also a choker in the postseason (remember the grand slam by Johnny Damon in game 7 of the famous 2004 ALCS? Remember the stinker last year vs Tampa Bay?)

Don’t treat him as if he were Roy Halladay or a young guy with a lot of promise. The Braves knew what they were getting with this guy and he is pitching OK, but some people here are thinking he is pitching like an ace. The fact he has struck out as many as Johan Santana doesn’t mean he is pitching as great as Johan, don’t be delusional.

As I said before, EVEN if he keeps pitching the way he is pitching now, the Braves need a bat right now. The Braves can’t trade Lowe (the best pitcher), they shouldn’t trade their young pitching (Jurjens, Hanson, Medlen, Morton, Locke, Rourbourgh, Teheran) and Kawakami is unmovable because he is a 5th starter being paid 3rd starters money (what an horrible signing by the way, what was Wren thinking? Was he wasted in a strip club when he approved that contract?)

So, the only tradeable player we got who is easily replaceable within our farm system and for who the Braves can get an impact bat is Vasquez.

Other teams won’t give the Braves shit if Wren offers damaged goods like Reyes or mediocre talent like Parr, Brandon Jones, etc. alone. But if Wren packages one of those along a good talent who is pitching better than his past numbers suggest, he can sell the trade for a desperate team starved of pitching.

And the trade has to be right now. Vasquez is in his highest value NOW; and in July 31 the Braves will be out of contention if they keep the status quo, unless the Mets colapse bigger than the 2 past years combined.

Finding a trading partner for Vazquez would be interesting. Essentially, that team would also be vying for a playoff spot and a starter, but why would they trade a big bat?

 I see Vazquez traded in the off-season unless the Braves just fall off before the trade deadline, which I don’t see happening this year.

we should keep Javy.

Justincredubil02:

I think you misunderstood me. Vasquez at best is a 4th starter in the AL (If you read my post again, you’ll notice I mentioned his times with the Yankees and White Sox) . In the NL he LOOKS BETTER because the lineups are weaker.

Vasquez is replaceable because the farm system has depth in starting pitching with Hanson, Morton and Medlen. One of those three guys can replace Vasquez and I’m not even mentioning Hudson, Glavine or Campillo, who by the way had a very good 2008 with a VORP superior to Vasquez’

Campillo’s VORP in 2008 25.7
Vasquez VORP in 2008 23.8

I’m not suggesting Campillo is better than Vasquez, but when you ask who could produce instead of him, there are at least 6 guys who could.

The Braves have no depth in batting, the farm system doesn’t have any bat at ANY POSITION ready to make a contribution in the big leagues right now, so if they want to contend they better get a good bat. The Houston Astros in 2007 are an exception to the rule. Teams with an OF this bad (the worst in the bigs BY FAR for two years in a row) don’t contend.

The rotation is great, but the bullpen is not that great. Gonzalez has been mediocre, Moylan hasn’t come back OK from surgery, O’flaherty pitches well when the game is out of reach, Jeff Bennet has been VERY LUCKY (30 hits and 12 BBs in 23.1 innings for a 1.80 WHIP so that 2.70 ERA won’t hold up very much), Carlyle and Parr have just been awful. So again, the Braves won’t contend with an offense this limited.

Kawakami is getting 8 million too much and NOBODY would trade for him, he is a complete wild card. Teams would trade for Vasquez because he is pitching better than his numbers in the past suggest (there is always a sucker desperate enough to buy the present numbers and not evaluate the trends) and he has a good medical history so teams know he is a reliable guy who can give them some stability to their rotation. Also because teams are in love with strike outs and stuff and there is always a team who believes they can FIX the guy with the tools but not the make up. (Jeff Francouer is the Braves most notorious case)

Vasquez has always had the stuff but has never put it together mentally to be the ace everybody expects of him, that’s the reason he BOMBED in New York and Chicago. He’ll always be who he is and the most probable thing is that his numbers will regress to his career averages (more on this in the next post), so the best is SELLING HIGH packaging him with two or three expendable players and getting a good bat in the market.

Also fortifyng the bullpen with the 6 pitchers I mentioned above, because with the actual bullpen the Braves aren’t going anywhere.

Do you have any other questions?

I have said before that I am open to the notion of trading Vazquez but we would need someone who could impact our team for at least the next 2 years as so we dont have Heyward being rushed.

That said, I suggested the Brewers before. Trading for Hart and Cameron would set our OF nicely this year and Hart would be around a couple of years or so.

Gives the Braves the ability to put Schafer in AAA for the rest of the season to get his game together.

Also allows the Braves to either bench FYF or GA. or knowing Bobby he would use FYF and GA in a platoon in LF.

BTW im not saying that Vazquez would get us BOTH Cameron and Hart

H/9 2004 8.86 2005 9.30 2006 9.14 2007 8.18 2008 9.24 2009 8.31
HR/9 2004 1.5 2005 1.46 2006 1.02 2007 1.20 2008 1.08 2009 0.71
BB/9 2004 2.72 2005 1.91 2006 2.48 2007 2.07 2008 2.63 2009 2.05
K/9 2004 6.81 2005 8.01 2006 8.17 2007 8.84 2008 8.64 2009 11.00
ERA 2004 4.91 2005 4.42 2006 4.84 2007 3.74 2008 4.67 2009 3.58

These numbers prove Vasquez is pitching above his head. He is not going to keep striking out 11 per 9 innings and his HR/9 are also way below his career averages. Once those KOs start to become hits and HRs his ERA will baloon at least a run.

Drumzalicious: Do you really want Corey Hart in a Braves uniform? He is a free swinger, the guy doesn’t take a walk, swings at the first pitch all the time, strikes out too much and his career OBP is 323, According to you, should the Braves replace Jeff Francouer with another guy like him?

After the 2007 season the Braves traded Edgar Renteria, who had had a great season for Gorkys and JJ. At the time of the trade I didn’t like it, because Renteria is a fellow Colombian (as myself) who was playing good ball.

What I didn’t evaluate at the time was that Renteria had played better than his past numbers suggested and the Tigers needed a shortstop at the moment. The Braves sold at the highest point of Renteria’s production and got one great prospect at the time (JJ) and one who could be good too (Gorkys). At the same time Renteria was replaced in the lineup by Yunel Escobar who has more range in SS, is cheaper, younger, reaching his upside and as good with the bat now as Renteria was at the time.

That’s what good front offices do. They don’t cling to players out of loyalty. If Renteria were still playing for Atlanta, they would have never gotten JJ and would be stuck with Renteria and his mediocre numbers, with Yunel being wasted in AAA or having been traded to another team for lesser talent.

My point is, Vasquez is a good pitcher, but there is no upside with him (as was the case with Renteria), he is replaceable in the starting rotation with younger, cheaper and as talented players (as Yunel Escobar), it’s time to sell at the highest of his production (as Renteria) and we need a big bat in the lineup right now.

Make no mistake. Vasquez is better than Kawakami, more reliable, better known, and more durable. You have read 3 times and you have not gotten it? Kawakami would be murdered in the AL. I’m saying Vasquez is a 4th starter in the AMERICAN LEAGUE.

In the NATIONAL LEAGUE he is more valuable, he could be a #2 in Milwaukee, Philadelphia and even the Mets. I’m not suggesting we shoud trade him within the division, I’m just making a point that Vasquez is valuable and Kawakami is NOT. It’s not about salaries, it’s about capability. Even though Vasquez is more expensive, he is way above Kawakami as a pitcher.

I’ve seen Kawakami pitch. His curve can be nasty and very deceptive, and sometimes it flattens and stays over the middle of the plate being a fat pitch even a college kid could drive out of the park. People remember the 8 scoreless innings vs Toronto (forgetting that Toronto was in the middle of a severe batting slump in a 9 game losing streak), but what people don’t remember is the several games when he is being treated like batting practice ( I still remember the San Francisco and Cincinati debacles). When the guy is commanding his pitches he can be good and maybe great, when he is OFF, which happens more often, the guy is terrible.

I’ll answer you with a question. Name a batter in Atlanta who can put 30 homers with an OBP superior to 370.

We can replace Vasquez with Hanson and put Medlen as a fifth starter. If Medlen fails there is Morton, if Morton fails, there is Glavine, if Glavine fails there is Campillo, if Campillo fails there is Hudson. Maybe neither of them can KO 200, but they can do a serviceable job.

We don’t have ANYONE capable of getting on base and being a presence in the middle of the lineup. Or at least steal some bases. Don’t you still get it? We have pitching, we don’t have offense.

I also wish we could get a bat for Kawakami, but not even GM’s as dumb as Bill Bavasi or Bowden (the guy who resigned in Washington) would do that.