Looking at Kris Medlen's First Start

by kasas on May 24, 2009 6:22 PM EDT Comment 18 comments

First post, so go easy on me.

A lot of hype has been surrounding the call-up of Kris Medlen. For Gwinnett, Medlen was thoroughly dominant. Check out these stats:

38 IP, 1.19 ERA (1.81 FIP), 0.79 WHIP, 10.42 K/9, 2.37 BB/9, 44.3 GB%

His first start against the Rockies, however, was somewhat disappointing. Medlen allowed five runs over only three innings, fanning three and walking five. Out of his 79 pitches, only 43 were strikes; that’s an Oliver Perez-worthy 54.43%. Obviously, the sample size is very small, but it does provide us some interesting data to play around with. Here is a graph of the pitches he threw:

via img195.imageshack.us

Clearly, Medlen showed three distinct pitches. He’s throwing a fastball around 87-88 mph, a changeup that is hovering around 80 (although that seems to be the least defined pitch speed-wise), and a 77 mph curve. The fastball only went for a strike only 51% of the time, which is fairly worrisome. The changeup was equally inaccurate; only 7 of 15 changeups were strikes. Medlen’s curveball had a vertical break of -4.83 (for reference, Javier Vazquez averages around -5.05) and he was actually throwing it for strikes (12 out of his 15).

Thoughts?

Acknowledgments:

FanGraphs for game box score

Minor League Splits for AAA stats

Pitch data from the Gameday database, accessed with the handy tool over at Brooks Baseball (http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php)

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as you point out — sample size.

i think a more important graph would be one showing the progression of his anxiety, which intensified to a full scale panic attack in the 4th. as an empathetic observer and fan, i just have to forget about that start unless it’s repeated. on my first job after college i was a nervous, palm sweating horse’s ass several times in front of colleagues, but fortunately it was not caught on video.

by brndn on May 24, 2009 6:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m not that worried because a guy with that low of a WHIP at AAA just doesn’t lose that when he gets called up. I’ll just hope that it was first major league start jitters and see if he’s better in his next start.

by jack dein on May 24, 2009 7:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Have you looked at his release point? Anything with that that could describe his wildness?

by 17843 on May 24, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He has an interview up on the Braves site saying that he was changing his delivery and release point and stuff like that and that caused his wildness.

I would be more interested to see how he pans out in his next start. One thing i noticed is that none of his pitches seem to be amazing he is supposed to have 4 (4SFB, CH, CB, SL) and from what i have been reading they are all around average with nothing really special to them. It just seems like he is someone who controls them well.

Wonder if he will turn out like another Maddux where he doesnt have one really AMAZING pitch but just 4 average-above average pitches that he can locate.

by drumzalicious on May 24, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maddux DID have that dominant cutter which would back-up against lefties and cut away from righties-it was among the best pitches any Braves’ pitcher showcased in the 1990s.

Though I do agree, if Medlen has four average-to-above-average pitches but great control, he really might be something for us.

by Bronn on May 24, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Release Points

Noticeably worse in the 4th inning.

by VictorW on May 24, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And the results of that 4th inning

Why yes those are pitches 2 feet off the plate.

by VictorW on May 24, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Medlen has said himself that his mechanics got a little wonky in the first game and his was getting a little ahead of himself at times which was causing him to fly out on pitches

by yondaime4 on May 24, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's pitch classifications for Medlen

I like how you include the velocity and I think I’m going to start doing that too now. Oh, and on this graph I only did the first 3 innings because I don’t consider the 4th one a real inning. He was just a mess.

Curveball is solid. Fastball has slightly below average speed, but I like the movement on it. Very horizontal. I guess he has a high arm slot. Love the 2seam/changeup combo with the 10 MPH speed difference since the two pitches have nearly identical movement.

by VictorW on May 24, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

curious...

Gameday’s algorithm didn’t pick up on a two-seamer at all, but that is an interesting addition to his arsenal. I don’t recall a mention of it in any scouting reports either (I might double check that).

by kasas on May 24, 2009 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh that’s right Gameday originally only listed a couple 2 seamers, a few generic fastballs (their FA label), and mostly 4 seamers. I went through the data and changed the ones that looked like 2 seamers, which were the pitches with horizontal movement around -6 to -8 and vertical around 6 to 8. His 4 seamer is around -3 on the horizontal and 10 on the vertical.

by VictorW on May 24, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How exactly do you read those graphs? i have been wondering that for awhile now since i have never really gotten that deep into them

by drumzalicious on May 24, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Negative horizontal movement is a break towards a right handed hitter; positive horizontal movement is a break towards a left handed hitter. For vertical movement, a positive indication means the pitch moved down less than it would expected to due to gravity (the whole rising fastball idea). That graph gives you a good idea of how pitches move from a righty.

by 17843 on May 25, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Medlen's collapse

Yeah, I’m not necessarily worried that his first start was bad. After all, he probably had some jitters or just had a bad day. Still, it is interesting to look at.

A breakdown of Medlen’s control issues by inning:
Inning-Pitches-Strikes-S%
1-34-24-70.59
2-15-7-46.67
3-12-8-66.67
4-18-4-22.22

Fastball Velocity by Inning:
1-90.04
2-88.08
3-88.05
4-86.7

by kasas on May 24, 2009 8:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m hoping it was a panic attack from his first major league game anxiety, and that he will feel more comfortable as he pitches more at this level.

"Be kinder than necessary, for everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle."

by HEYJUDE on May 24, 2009 9:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Appreciate you putting this together.

by Smoltz's Beard on May 25, 2009 1:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is nice...

But if you just watch the start you would know he was throwing 86 MPH after the first few innings…he has good command but good luck getting away with that

I would imagine all his adrenaline ran out after the first few innings leaving him with an empty tank. It is hard to believe the scouting reports would be so glowing if he really cant carry a 90MPH fast ball into the 6thor 7th inning.

by jsmall404 on May 25, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs