Stats on Pitchers
by rocket8188 on May 18, 2009 7:47 AM EDT
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PrintCould Atlanta have the best rotation in the NL? There is nothing to do at work and I've been wondering if the staff could maintain this pace. After looking at Baseball Reference for about 40 minutes and I'm trying to find some sort of statisticall anomaly.
Derek Lowe has almost the same H/9, SO/9. The only deviations from his normal production is his HR and his BB has went up from last year but are closer to his pre 2007 numbers.
Javy Vazquez has been way way way better than anyone could have hoped.... if he could just keep the damn ball in the park. Maybe in US Cell but at the Ted? I don't know how his K rate has exploded from a consistent 8 K/9 throughout his career to a 11 but I'm not arguing. BABIP is still steady. I really want to believe that he is a better pitcher now than when he was in Montreal and being in the AL made him seem worse than he was.
Kawakami like most Dice K can't find the strike zone at times. I don't think that gets better.
Jurrjens has the least amount of numbers to go from but at 22 he's walking less but strike out less as well. Hitters just aren't getting getting on base against him.
Just boredom
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That took 40 minutes?
If Dunn walks 30 fewer times, he'll drive in 15 more runs. This is thanks to the scientifically proven formula: RBI = (this is nonsense) (I made it all up).
Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.
He said he was bored at work...
Trust me, I’ve looked at a three picture comic strip for 40 minutes before…
Guy #1: Damn, these oysters are going to make us horny as hell...
Girl #2: Oh yeah, I forgot oysters are hermaphrodites.
by bwellnjonesco on May 18, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we absolutely could have the best rotation in the NL. I was going through this the other day, trying to see if any staff could compare to ours:
East
Mets: We all know Johan’s a beast, and Pelfrey is decent, but after that it’s a pretty big drop off. Any rotation with Livan Hernandez should be discounted.
Phils: Same as the Mets: One ace (Hamels), one decent pitcher (Myers), the rest just suck. Chan Ho Park is absolutely awful
Marlins: Could challenge us, but Nolasco is gonna hafta screw his head on straight first. Johnson is a monster, Volstad and Sanchez are a nice 3-4 punch, but their 5th spot is in flux, and they really dont have a good option there.
Nationals: Don’t make me laugh. At least they’ll draft Strasbourg, who could probably IMMEDIATELY have more success in their rotation than any of their 5. Zimmerman has potential in a few years though, and Martis isn’t awful.
Central
Cubs: Big Z is on the DL, and isn’t the pitcher he once was. Harden is pitching well, but he makes Hampton look like DLowe in terms of durability. Dempster is ok, a good 3 (so glad we didn’t overpay him). This staff is solid, but not spectacular.
Brewers: Gallardo’s a monster. After that, I just dont trust Dave Bush or Jeff Suppan. I don’t even know who else starts for them. Not a great rotation.
Cards: Wainwright is great. When he isn’t hurt, Chris Carpenter is pretty good too. Joel Piniero is finally cooling off, as is Kyle Lohse. The back end here is not that good either.
Reds: Harang is decent. Arroyo isn’t. Cueto and Volquez can both be great if they could get a better command of their pitches, but right now they’re both wild, and it can really hurt the Reds at time (Remember when Volquez walked something like 4 men in a row against us?)
Astros: Roy Oswalt’s great, but losing his edge with age. Wandy Rodriguez is looking every bit the part of the staff ace right now. After that (Hello Mr. Glass), they don’t have jack.
Pirates: Have some good young talent in Maholm and Duke (Snell too, I guess), but don’t worry, the Pirates management will pull a Gorzelanny and blow their arms out this year.
West
Dodgers: Billingsly is looking like he could give Johan a run for the Cy Young, and Wolf’s pitching well too. Kuroda’s good but DL’d now, and Kershaw will be be great in a few years. (Almost no-hit the fish yesterday)
Giants: Lincecum is a beast, but people are worried about his workload. Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez bot have lots of upside, and Johnson’s still got something left in the tank.
Padres: Nothing great after Jake Peavy.
Rockies: God Awful
D’backs: IMO, the best 1-2 punch in baseball with Webb and Haren. After that it drops off bad (Jon Garland, anyone?). Scherzer will be special one day.
So, I think we very well could be the strongest rotation in the NL. I think the other rotations that could be mentioned with ours would be the Marlins, the Dodgers, and the Giants, and Cardinals. But that’s just my take.
The Braves have the best (and deepest) rotation in the NL.
However, there’s certainly regression coming. Jurrjens is stranding 85% of runners (lg avg 72%), allowing a .244 BABIP that is ~50 points lower than the team average, and sporting a 1.4 K/BB rate, worst among our starters. His FIP points to an ERA around 4.00 which makes perfect sense with his peripherals.
Kawakami is on the flip-side. 65% strand rate, a .342 BABIP, but a 1.8 K/BB rate. His FIP shows him as a 4.76 ERA guy, which is much more in line with the #4 starter we thought we were getting.
Jo-Jo obviously hasn’t pitched as bad as his line would suggest. His FIP should be nearly 5.00, but his ERA is inflated by a 47% strand rate. He’d be a perfectly serviceable #5 starter from here on out, but hopefully his stuff plays up in the bullpen and he brings us value that way.
Lowe has preformed as expected. That’s definitely real.
Vazquez has been a little unlucky on balls in play (.330), but is striking out more guys than ever before. I’d be surprised if he didn’t maintain similar performance all year.
That all bodes well; three starters at 4.00 or lower, Kawakami solid at the #4 spot, and a group of solid transients in the #5 spot (Reyes, Medlen, Morton/Hanson (?)). Yeah this rotation is certainly real, but it has to be when the middle of the lineup has Garret Anderson, Jeff Francoeur, and Casey Kotchman at corner spots.
now if we could only score runs with consistency…
"When life gives you lemons, just say 'F*ck the lemons,' and bail."
by Bravely going forward on May 18, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
The Braves have the best (and deepest) rotation in the NL.
Not sure if I completely agree with that. The Braves have been pretty good, but we also have a bit of junk at the back end of the rotation. Reyes was pretty bad as the 5th starter (despite his peripherals not looking as bad) and it’s yet to be seen how much better that 5th starter spot might be over the course of the season between Medlen, Glavine, and whoever else might get involved. And Kawakami’s FIP still isn’t that great for a #4 guy, even though he’ll hold that slot until getting hurt.
The LA Dodgers have the best team ERA in the NL, and it’s not by accident-they have a score of good arms Chad Billingsley is a great young pitcher, and a legitimate #1 starter. Randy Wolf is benefitting from an insane BABIP (.243) but his FIP still has him as a 3.80 guy, and Kershaw is actually much better than 4.60 ERA based on his peripherals. Eric Stults has filled in very nicely as a #4 in their rotation, and even though his walk rate is a tad high, his BABIP and LOB% are right around league average, so he’s pretty legitimate-and he has the stuff to improve his K rate. They’ve been searching for a 5th starter, same as we, but the enigmatic Jeff Weaver had a couple of nice starts, and Hiroki Kuroda is close to coming back-he was their opening day starter. Without him, they’re still tops in team ERA; with him, they could be dominant.
Reds are pretty solid also-Cueto’s posting a pretty crazy BABIP, but his BB rate is reverting to his norm based on his minor league numbers. Harang is a good pitcher-Arroyo is not very good. Volquez is a decent #3, a little wild though, and I wouldn’t mind having Micah Owings (playing right field for us).
What’s your definition of what a 4th starter’s ERA should be? And how do good peripherals not equal a good pitcher? Reyes has been terribly unlucky with stranding runners. Back end starters are expected to strand maybe 68% of runners, but not 46%. That’s driving a ridiculous amount of what we perceive as bad performance.
We certainly do have the deepest rotation. We have three additional pitchers who could pitch well in the rotation sitting at Triple-A right now. The Dodgers are benefiting from good luck with some bad pitchers (Weaver, Stults) and injury prone guys (Wolf). The Braves don’t have those injury issues or the concerns that their 4/5 starters will turn into pumpkins the next time around.
Sometimes there’s a bit more than luck involved in peripherals like LOB%. If you do a good job with the bases empty but struggle when there’s runners on, you may not be very effective pitching out of the stretch. In Jo-Jo’s case, it’s pretty clear he gets rattled. His control out of the wind-up is decent (well, sometimes). Out of the stretch it’s horrible, and his splits confirm that. For his career, he posts a 4.01 BB/9 rate with the bases empty-which isn’t very good. With men on, it jumps to 5.0. And you also see a significant jump in his BAA. I’m by no means saying Reyes hasn’t had some bad luck, but he hasn’t pitched very well, either. The splits are even more extreme when you look at this year-awesome in the windup, terrible in the stretch.
As for the Dodgers, Stults is posting an FIP of 4.02. Jurrjens’ is 4.10. Stults is not really benefiting from too much luck, and he’s not unrealistically beyond his projected peripherals. I don’t think it’s fair of you to categorically call him a bad pitcher when he’s been as good as 60% of our rotation so far, and is only in his 4th season. Of course, Weaver IS a bad pitcher, but they’re also not relying on him either
We do have more depth because there’s a couple of guys on the DL in Campillo, Glavine, and Hudson who all, at the least have something to contribute, and that’s in addition to Hanson, Medlen, and Morton at AAA. But keep in mind, success at AAA doesn’t always translate to success in the big leagues-see Jo-Jo.
I meant the Dodgers are having luck with the guys they’ve run out there, but if we’re going to bring up Stults’s FIP, let’s note why it’s so low.
2008: 6.98 K/9, 3.03 BB/9, 38% GB = 4.76 FIP
2009: 5.97 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 35% GB = 4.02 FIP
He gets worse at everything, but improves his FIP by 3/4ths of a run.
2008: 12.2% HR/FB
2009: 3.6% HR/FB
Regress that to his career rate and we’re talking about over three additional dingers and ~5 more runs. That’ll bump his FIP up over 5.00.
Javy Vazquez has been way way way better than anyone could have hoped….
Anyone on this board who follows anything like FIP or K/BB ratio was expecting this kind of production from him.
But you forgot that he a choker and a quitter and Ozzie doesn’t like him.
by soup du jour on May 18, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you talking about me?
because you are. Also, I think that any player who plays for any other manager after playing for Ozzie will post better numbers.
"Actually, Justin was right."
by bigjoe on May 15, 2009 9:04 AM PDT
by justincredubil02 on May 18, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't have the time.
Im at work and can comment periodically, but I would be interested to see how many of out starters runs our bullpen has given up. It seems that if a starter is taken out in the middle of an inning, those runners on base ALWAYS score. I wouldn’t doubt to this point we have had 10 – 20 runners score in that position. I feel like our bullpen can hold a lead, just can’ pitch when tied or behind
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