Braves mock draft
by nivarsity on May 14, 2009 1:43 AM EDT
61 comments
I will be the Scouting Director of the Braves in the mock draft on Minor League Ball, which will occur on June 6.
I'd love to hear your insight on who you think the Braves should pick.
To fill the space requirement, I will quote from my own post on the Braves mock draft:
The Braves will have just two picks in our mock -- #7 and #87. Likely candidates at #7 include (in no particular order):
Alex White - Aaron Crow - Tanner Scheppers - Zack Wheeler - Mike Leake - Kyle Gibson - Tyler Matzek
Since the Braves are well known for drafting local, I think we can include the free-falling, but still very interesting, Donovan Tate
Wheeler seems like a strong possibility -- he's a local boy with a high ceiling who figures to be there at #7.
The Braves are in a pretty good spot -- after Strasburg and Ackley, there's not much difference between #3 and #7. They'll have their choices of solid options at #7
I'll be looking to take the best player, and ignoring any positional need.
Thoughts?
0 recs |
61 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
What about Donovan Tate? Everything I read has him going right around 6-8 and he plays right in the Braves’ backyard. The Braves have never been a team to draft by position, especially with their first round pick, and with a pick this high, they’re going to take the best guy.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
It will take #2 slot money
to sign Tate away from UNC. He’s going to be getting the shot to play QB there. and by all accounts, football is his first love.
Get Crow, Matzek or Gibson. Crow and Gibson b/c they’re both closest to ML ready. Get Matzek b/c he’s a Lefty who throws 94-96 and projects as a #2 at worst.
with #87, we NEED to score a 3B/SS prospect with pop.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 14, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Based on the fact that he nearly quit football to focus on baseball only to come back to football really seems to indicate that Tate isn’t particularly tied to football. He might just be using football for extra leverage at this point, who knows but I agree that it is likely that he would require above slot money to sign.
"for my little nephew: in my second drawer where i keep my weed, under the handgun is a stack of pornos that will put callouses on your hands"
"Fundamentals are a crutch for the talentless"
"You wanna know about relationships, I know all there is to know – just ask my second wife Tina – yea she was a stripper and if Montel Williams wants to talk some shit some more then he can go f**k himself cause those charges were dropped."
-Kenny Powers
great point
but he WILL use UNC’s football and baseball programs as leverage to get #2 slot money.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 15, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
The Braves have never had a problem paying a little more for a guy…if they think he’s worth it. I’ve said this before, but a guy like Tate has to be crazy to pass up 3-5 million dollars today for the possibility of going to the NFL in 3 years. Most people just can’t pass up that kind of instant wealth.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
My concern with Tate is that I hear he can't hit.
When my team’s about to use a top 10 draft choice on a guy, if he’s a non-pitcher, I don’t want his hitting ability to be in question. I don’t pretend to offer any significant insight into Tate’s value… That’s just my thoughts. Tate smacks of all tools, no skills.
Tommy Hanson 4 ROY
he can hit...
but he might not be PROJECTED to hit.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 15, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Money is an issue
And also, the guy has talent, but dubious secondary skills.
He’d be a worthwhile gamble for a team with money later in the round, but I’m pretty unlikely to take him at #7.
Miles Head?
3B prospect at my high school. Red Sox brought scouts down to watch him play. I think he signed a letter of intent to UGA, though. Great defense, MAJOR power, just a great all-around player.
Matzek, Purke, Wheeler, Tate
I think a long term projectable high school arm (preferably lefty) is in our future unless someone like Green or Ackley falls. The system is packed, so there isn’t a need for the player to fly though the system. SS/2b/3b are a secondary need, long term we need to replace chipper. OF depth and pitchers are strengths in the system. Draft local is the name of the game, as scouts see an awful lot of Georgia kids. Last year there were a lot of JUCO guys in later rounds.
hindsight is 20-13 just like Ted William actual vision- ken tremendous
Unless Ackley falls, I want us to go the pitching route, because the top 10 talent is all pitching. And unless you have beachfront property in Kentucky, there’s no reason to expect him to make it past the 3rd of 4th pick at the latest.
Tommy Hanson 4 ROY
Green
Green has been falling major. I think the Braves pass him up even if he’s available. Some scouts don’t feel like he’s likely to stick at SS. His bat also isn’t playing well enough to stick at 3rd. I’d pass him up.
by smscardinals1 on May 14, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Most likely will take Wheeler if he is there. You said it, we have a penchant for taking local players and if they don’t want to spend for Tate it will most likely be wheeler. It sucks there aren’t as many big bats this year as last. I would have killed for a shot at Justin Smoak.
In reality, I think Wheeler is the most likely pick
I think there’s a good chance I’ll take him as well, though I’m intrigued by some of other other arms who might drop, like Scheppers and Crow.
Why?
Most scouts don’t believe his defense is good enough to stick at short and he’s not going to hit for enough power to be a third baseman. Also, we’re pretty set at those two positions to be looking at a college player…in the first round.
I’m all for best player available, regardless of position, but there will be several higher upside arms at that position with a couple being guys coming out of college.
Edit
defense is good enough defense is NOT good enough…
*fixed
I’m not sure that he won’t hit for enough power. He’s 6’3" 180; once he’s forced over to third he’ll be more than able to pack some more muscle onto his frame. Other than that, I think he’ll hit enough, walk enough, and play good enough defense to be solid at third base.
I’m all for best plater available too, but there’s definitely not a clear best player among any of these guys. In that situation, I defer towards positional scarcity. We have literally tons of RHP depth, but really only one legit prospect on the left side of the infield and an aging third baseman. Add to that the marginal advantage of Green being a college guy and both being more likely to be a big leaguer and more likely to get here quicker and I think he’s the best option.
I just don't see any reason for us to be drafting a college infielder in the first round.
We may not have the necessary organizational depth in our infield, but at the top our infield is our strength. What would we do with Green, start him at High-A, then make him waste away at Gwinnett for 2-3 years until Chipper leaves?
Realistically, this organization’s best bet for getting more infield depth would be to make some international signings. Use the draft to stock up on more pitching.
Tommy Hanson 4 ROY
I don’t view any of that as a problem at all. Let imagine a hypothetical here: Green is drafted and signs; has a short debut at High-A. Reports there in 2010 and rakes, earning a promotion to Double-A where he also finds success. At this point we have a pretty damn good prospect who can be sent to Triple-A for a bit of 2011 or who can be traded. If he’s kept, he’s great insurance for the yearly 40 games Chipper misses (remember we’re currently employing a slap-hitting second baseman who struggles defensively in this role). If not, he’ll bring a nice return for us.
It’s pretty well established that drafting high school arms (especially unpolished ones) is the least effective strategy. There will be good high school arms available later in the draft (DeVall, Spruill, Locke, etc were all supplemental picks or later), let’s not act as if Miller, Wheeler, and Matzek are Porcello level talents. They have high ceilings, but all we’ve heard about this draft is Strasburg, some good college arms, and a lot of parity from pick 5-50. Unless you’re absolutely comfortable saying one of those arms is clearly separated from the pack talent/future wise, you got to go with the more sure thing and at least take a college player.
Realistically, we have one infielder who has much of a chance to be a long-term solution at 3B/SS (Hicks). Signing 16 year olds who won’t likely be ready until 2015 seems like an unwise strategy when Chipper is 37 and on a largely unmodeled aging curve.
You know, I’m liking your argument here.
by soup du jour on May 14, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You take the best player in the first round.
This isn’t the football draft, in which, say, the Lions need a QB, so they take Stafford.
I’m not going to take position into account — and I don’t think the Braves will either.
I should've included Green as a possibility
Though, at this point, I’d rather have any of these arms than him, I think.
If Green is there at 7 i would take him in a heartbeat. Just like 17843 said if Wren had to he can trade him if he does good. If he flat out kills the ball in AA by 2010 or 2011 whenever he is there and becomes one of the best bats we can make room for the guy somewhere on our ballclub if we had to or just trade him and get very good specs. There is still some time in the draft, i figure whoever Wren and his scouts pick it will be the best choice for this franchise. Braves scouts have been studying these high school and college players for a long time now but remember the draft is a crapshoot.
braves#1
amen.
the kid’s a gamer.
i think i read somewhere that he’s been playing a bit hurt a lot this year. nagging shoulder injury that’s not serious, just needs rest.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 15, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d love to be able to pick up Matzek at 7, but I’m not sure he’ll still be there. I’d be OK with Miller there, too…but I’d just lean towards the lefty.
I seem to be getting the impression most scouts believe that there’s a slight gap between those two and Wheeler, but I just want them to take the best player regardless of what stinking area he grew up.
I wouldn’t mind us staying away from Tate either. I know what his upside is, but he’s also so raw that it scares me a bit. I keep having Jeff Francoeur comparison/flashbacks and don’t like it.
Oh, and at 87...
I wonder if they’ll take a shot at a guy like Luke Bailey if he’s there? Most of the talk with him now that he’s had elbow surgery is around 3rd round. Take him at 87, let him DH until his arm is ready to go, and you are looking at a strong draft right out of the gate…
Crow or Scheppers
Its always nice to get arms that would seem to be near ML ready…not sure what the year off has done for Crow or how over Scheppers is from his injury(seems fine) but high potential near ready arms are nice. I am divided on Tate..granted with the rule that if he doesnt sign the Braves get that number pick next year..it seems easier to swallow if we dont sign him
I’d be very disappointed if the Braves drafted either Crow or Scheppers. To me, it just doesn’t speak highly of a guy’s commitment if he’s willing to give up first round money and sit out for a year (a month’s worth of Indy ball aside). Sure, it’s all about money for everyone, but when a guy is grubbing for more millions before he’s even put on his cleats for the first time, it doesn’t lend the impression that he’s gonna go out of his way and put in the work in the minors.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
Your post only applies to Crow
To be fair, Scheppers was going to be a first-rounder until he hurt his arm. Instead he was taken in the second round and the Pirates probably low-balled him. It made sense for him to reject the offers, play in the Indy leagues, show he’s healthy and come back this year. No rational person in his situation would have played it differently. Now, I personally think he should have shown his health at Fresno State, but that’s because I’m a Fresno homer.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on May 14, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re right, I completely forgot/overlooked that about Scheppers. I’d say I’m still a little leery of a guy turning down 2nd round money to play Indy ball, but I know the Pirates don’t run things well, and you’re probably right, it was their fault. Of course, that point could work with Crow and the Natinals, since they’re a mess too, but they were offering him like 2.5 mil, so I’m still putting him on the shit list.
Thanks for fixing my perspective.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
Crow should definitely stay on the shit list
But I think Scheppers was making a rational decision based on the injury. Anyways, I love it when I can add something to the baseball discussion, instead of something snarky.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
I don't really agree with that.
That’s kind of a subjective thing to read into a guy’s personal financial decision.
I’m gonna take the best player, regardless of whether they sat out the year.
It’s absolutely subjective. I loved Bobby Cox’s quote about Josh Fields, who didn’t sign with the Braves as a 2nd round pick and waited until almost the beginning of ST to sign with the Mariners as a 1st rounder: “I don’t know. Some guys just want to play, some guys don’t.”
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
I think you’re dead wrong here. For the vast majority of drafted players, even first rounders, that bonus check is the only seven figure sum they’re ever going to see. Even if Crow gets through the minors and pans out entirely as a major leaguer, he’s looking at 4-5 years until he even hits arbitration and another 3-4 until he’s a free agent. I certainly would be looking to maximize my return.
Some guys want to play, but also realize most likely they’re signing a contract that will provide them with 80%+ of the money the ever make playing baseball.
You’re not wrong about any of this. The flip side is, if a guy like Fields go back to college and trips over a book and blows out his knee, he’ won’t ever see that kind of money again. Same think for Crow if he blows out his shoulder or elbow in his next Indy ball start.
There’s maximizing your gain, and then there’s just wanting too much. At a certain point, it’s an ego thing with these guys. They think they’re worth so much because they’re just that good. Well hey, if you’re that good, take the millions we’re offering now, bust ass in the minors, and in a few years you’ll more than make it back.
And you and I both know that 30% of 1st round picks never even make the major leagues, and that 60% of them don’t really make an impact, but the players don’t. Trust me, if you talk to some of these first round bonus baby guys, they’ll almost always certain they’re going to be major league superstars for the next 20 years. The idea that they won’t make it doesn’t even cross their minds. Having seen that attitude a ton of times over the years, I never think these negotiations are about protecting themselves for the future, it’s about ego and greed.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
They might not explicitly know it, but you can be sure their agents do and their agents have factored it into the big round number that they tell them they’re worth. What’s Crow going to say screw it, I want to play and accept $2 million when his agent tells him he’s worth $6 million?
The problem with the proposition you offer in the 2nd paragraph is that like I said, a player is really looking at several years until they see any real money (400K) and 5-7 until they’re looking at seven figures and 8-10 until they’re looking at being able to 1. choose where they play and 2. for how much.
You got to put yourself in these 20 year old’s shoes. They’re being assigned to an employer for 8-10 years where really the only choice they have is whether to sign a contract and for how much. If your agent says you’re worth $6 million and the team’s offering $2 million, and the team has poor management (Bowden and Co.) and a streak of mediocrity stretching back over a decade, would you sign that contract? Especially when you could come back the next spring and play baseball still and most likely be looking at making the same amount of money (or more) and possibly landing in a better situation?
would you sign that contract?
Of course I would, I’d get to play professional baseball!
But seriously, I see your point, I always understand why guys don’t sign. Frankly, I really think the agents screw over the players like this a lot. The whole the team offers 2 but the agent says you’re worth six argument is absolutely valid, but my counter to that is, hey, if you’re worth as much as what the top pick in the draft signed for, why weren’t you the top pick?
Like I said, to me, I don’t see how you can turn down millions of dollars when any kind of tragedy or mishap could befall you between the next time you’re offered millions. A year is a long time. I could get behind the putting yourself in a better situation argument a lot better. I could see why nobody would want to play for the Natinals or the Pirates (one of my college buddies is currently getting screwed over by the Nats, they won’t release him and they won’t let him play).
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
thats not completely fair cbwilk
There is always two sides to a story but i do remember seein an article where Crow was sayin how Bowden called Crow on the phone when he got drafted then didn’t talk to him again until July. Didn’t try to talk contract or nothin with the guy. The communication between the two was horrible. I think Crow and Bowden are to be blamed but lets not just blame Crow in this i think Bowden is to be blamed just as much and maybe more. Yeah he was tryin to get as much money as possible but in that same article he said that his agent TOLD Bowden and the Nats represenatives how much he was seekin before they drafted him. I have never liked Bowden he just always seemed like a prick that everytime he would make a trade would try to get the best without carin what the other side gets. Obviously you try to not give up as much talent as possible in trades but seems to me that he makes a one sided trade or no trade at all. I remember readin where DOB of the AJC said that Bowden wanted Escobar and Salty for Dmitri Young a few years ago when he was hitting so good. Like i said obviously you try to get the best talent possible but seems to me he wants one sided trades everytime.
braves#1
The thing about that is that both sides tell a different story. There were a few articles where Crow says Bowden never contacted him and there were a few articles where Bowden said Crow and his agents wouldn’t talk to them. I have no doubt that both parties were in the wrong.
I’ve thought for a long time that Jim Bowden was a terrible GM (and now with the whole bonus skimming thing apparently he’s just an all around terrible person), but we’re not talking about the possibility of drafting him. Crow is the guy that’s out there. If you’re going to be looking at investing the highest pick we’ve had in 15 years on a guy, you better be sure you’re getting somebody who’s about the game, not the cash.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
yes there is always two sides to the story. And agreed about us choosin very wisely about who to pick with this pick cause its very important for this teams future BUT there is rumors that Strasburg might end up gettin $49 million or so(rumors yes, but this is boras so you never know) so if he dont get much from the Nats and they pick him first he prolly goes back to college or goes to independent league for 1 season but is it that he cares about the game less than the cash? Even if Strasburg did somethin like that the NEXT season if the Braves got the first pick i would take him with that pick in a heatbeat without even thinkin unless he is hurt or somethin. Braves wont get the first pick but im just tryin to make a point.
braves#1
It’s funny, I was reading an article on BA today about Strasburg where Jim Callis was guessing that, no matter, what, he’ll end up signing. And, what’s more, he was figuring that he’ll get nowhere close to that 50 million, probably settling more around the 15-20 million level.
I think his reasoning is completely sound, you pretty much can’t get any better leverage than being the unquestioned number one overall. And sure, he can go back to SDSU for his senior year, but for what? He can only drop his stock or get hurt, he can’t get any higher than number one. And anyone picking 1st overall is probably gonna be a crap organization, at least for the immediate future.
So yeah, in Strasburg’s case, if he turns down 20 million trying to get 50, he only cares about the money. Sure, you would absolutely want that other 30 million, but there’s no excuse for not being able to live quite comfortably for rest of your life on 20 mil. Hell, actually works against my argument for a guy like Crow, turning down 2 million trying to get 6; but still, 2 million is better than none.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
yeah i understand what your sayin but still if Crow is the best available(not so sure he will be) then i would still select him as long as we know his demands up front. Yeah sure he is greedy but if you really look at it who isn’t greedy out there? Hell Frenchy is i think maken more money than McCann and no way he deserves it. Alot of greed goin on.
braves#1
I hope we end up with Wheeler or Matzek. Matzek will in all probability be gone by 7, so if we get Wheeler, it would be fine by me. Plus we know how hard up the Front Office is with players from Georgia
These are pretty much my thoughts. I’d rather have yet another pitcher since we have a glut of outfielders in the system, unless you wanna do something silly like turn Tate into a 3B
"If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?"
President, CEO, and chairman of the Brandon Jones fan club. PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK! PLEASE COME BACK!
Right. As there doesn’t seem to be a SS/3B guy worth taking at 7 I would be fine with Wheeler or Matzek. Although we do have a lot of southpaws in our system, so it wouldn’t bother me at all taking the RHed Wheeler.
by soup du jour on May 14, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and I just want to reiterate that I’d like to take the BPA as well…if Ackley falls to us (which he won’t), then we should take him, OFer or not. I don’t know nearly enough about the prospects to make any sort of informed decision about the best player available, but if two prospects have equal talent in the minds of our scouts, I’d rather have the RHed HS pitcher, which Wheeler certainly fits the bill.
by soup du jour on May 14, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I think this holds true for all drafts
The only time you think about need, is when you have two players rated equal. Anything can happen, so it’s best to have the best player available, so they can either play for your team or be used to acquire someone who can.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
Wow, he’d be as bad as Eric Campbell out there.
"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com
ummmmm...
he’d be Matt Williams-part deux
by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 15, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I must confess an affection for Leake
Though he isn’t really the Braves’ kind of pick.
Baseball America did their first Mock Draft today and they had the Braves taking Wheeler with their pick. At least three team ahead of the Braves have interest in Wheeler as well and depending on how things fall the Braves could be in on Matzek or Green as well.
I think ideally I would take Green but I don’t think he will be there. We were too lucky getting Heyward I don’t see that happening again. So I say we take Wheeler.
Green will be on my list
But I doubt I will take him. Just not sold he’ll stay at short, and I haven’t seen the production out of him to make me convinced he’ll be a stud if he moves to third.
Always willing to listen to other arguments though.
(The only exception — I’m going BPA, no matter what.)
Bobby established Brave’s drafting philosophy when, as GM, he said that its easier to trade pitching for position players than the other way around. H e was especially high on drafting LHers, considering them a premium. There’s a great deal of truth in that. The Braves have developed a rep for trading minor league pitchers with gaudy stats who never develop. This has caused many teams to demand over payment from the Braves because of their fears of getting “taken.” This has also resulted in the Braves not having the numbers of hghly rated position players that many other teams have. We have as many now as we have ever had. Under the FWIW category, saw an article that said, since 1965 not one pitcher drafted in the first round has put up HOF numers. There have been some very good ones but not one HOF type. There have been a dozen or so HOF position players taken in the first round. Not sure if that means anything but it is interesting.
I want them to take Tate but I was reading a chat or something where KLaw or someone was saying that a problem with scouting is people are so eager to call a guy a five tool player when they are really a good athlete that may or may not hit. Also high school pitchers have a lower probablity rate than college guys to make it to the big leagues so if Crow slips you get him. If not you have to take one of the high school guy Matzek or Wheeler
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
