Atlanta Braves April Aftermath: MVPs and LVPs
by gondeee on May 1, 2009 11:00 AM EDT
22 comments
As cruel as April has seemed for the Atlanta Braves, we find ourselves at the end of it only one game below .500. I guess that's not too bad, but it's also not too good. For a team that got off to a 5-and-1 start, we certainly showed our inconsistencies and lack of maturity the last three weeks.
Last year, for most of the year, I gave out hitting and pitching MVPs and LVPs for each month; this will the format for this year. It's a good way to dissect the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately generalities of baseball and see who is helping us and who is hurting us.
Hitting MVP: This was a tough one because no one really stands out. We had a lot of so-so performances, but nothing stellar in the hitting department. Jeff Francoeur leads the team in RBI's, but he has an OPS stuck in the low-700's -- not MVP worthy. Guys like Prado, Infante, and Ross are hitting really well, but they're playing time doesn't warrant MVP status. I strongly, strongly considered Jordan Schafer, even with a team high in strikeouts, his OPS is second among regulars. In the end, the old man won out. It's hard to ignore what Chipper Jones can do and the impact he has on the team when he's in the lineup; he's the Braves April MVP.
Hitting LVP: It would be really easy to give this to Garret Anderson, maybe too easy. He has certainly not been very valuable. I considered Matt Diaz and his rough April, and I just about gave the LVP to Kelly Johnson, who has clogged up the top of the order. But then I came back to Garret Anderson and realized that for the 10 games he played while hitting in a run producing spot in the lineup he collected exactly zero RBIs, and I thought, that is 100% negative value, and so he gets the LVP (as he rightly should).
Pitching MVP: I'm glad there's a lot of competition here, including the majority of our staring pitchers. Some bullpen guys were also considered, including Jeff Bennett and especially Rafael Soriano. Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens could easily be called the pitching MVP of April, but the nod goes to Javier Vazquez. Despite some trouble his last time out, he has given us 4 out of 5 quality starts and he's done a better job than the other guys of keeping runners off base, not walking people, and getting key strikeouts. All of that screams ace, and earns Javier Vazquez the pitching MVP for April.
Pitching LVP: Thankfully, this is a short list, headlined by some bullpen guys, including one who is no longer here, Blaine Boyer, but he shouldn't get it because he only made it into three games for the Braves in April. The other bullpen guys who started rough have settled down, so they're out of the running. The unfortunate and obvious choice for this dubious distinction is Kenshin Kawakami. He's allowed as many homeruns as the rest of our pitching staff combined, he's had poor control, and he hasn't been able to keep his baserunners from touching home. I give him easier treatment than most because he is learning this league and getting used to the differences of American baseball, but that grace period will only last a little while longer -- we need to see results, especially since he's being counted on to be a key contributor in our rotation.
Overall there haven't been too many terrible performances in April, but aside from our top three starters, there also haven't been too many great performances. Perhaps a new month will bring better hitting and more consistent starting ptiching, not to mention a confident bullpen. Go Braves!
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lol at subtlety
GA still wearing Angels stuff in his photo, ‘cuz you know, he doesn’t really belong here.
He might not warrant MVP status, but Jeff Francoeur, I think has had a very good April in his own right. He might be so wrapped up in just not wanting to screw up that he has forgotten his power stroke, but that one strikeout in 35 ABs streak he had, is phenomenal for him. He’s still not taking his walks, but the fact that he has his strike outs down is a very good sign. He’s shown ability to go to multiple parts of the field, and is putting the ball in play and allowing runners to occasionally advance as opposed to just striking out. Sure it’s only April, but his situational hitting currently is showing noticeable improvement over all of last season.
Vazquez has been nothing but awesome all month. It’s a no-brainer to give him the pitcher’s MVP here.
The team’s in okay shape. One major thing I like right now is that the Braves are not leading the league in GIDP (19 – leaders Escobar/Francoeur 4 each) right now, because it felt like all of last year was Vidro after Vidro, costing us game after game. Heap coming back will be a nice little boost provided his eyes are in good shape.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on May 1, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His strike outs are down, but his weak pop outs are up. He’s had good plate coverage, but he’s not getting good wood on much, and he doesn’t seem to have any power if the pitch isn’t on the inside corner.
I’ll give him some praise for not being the total waste he was last year, but if an 87 OPS+ is all we can expect from Frenchy going forward, we need to consider non-tendering him and calling up Heyward if he excels at AA. We’d be saving at least 5 million and it’d be worth it if Heyward seems ready.
by Weldon on May 1, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s amazing how a few years ago, he was “the Natural,” and this baseball prodigy, but four years later, he’s now kind of on the behind side of things, when it comes to player development.
I believe that there’s still some hope yet for him, but that he’s kind of slow at putting it all together. To me, it seems like he’s working at one thing at a time, which is right now, not striking out, and putting the ball into play, which he’s not doing a bad job at. I can tell you that watching these games, seeing Francoeur in late-game situations, I don’t feel half the dread I used to feel last year, when pitchers would salivate for the chance to pitch around two guys to get to him for the third out.
Some might not have as much patience, but I’d like to see what kind of player Francoeur is like when he’s 27-30 when the supposed mythical “man-power” is supposed to peak. If he lasts long enough in Atlanta, to see if he can put his practiced plate discipline and his natural power together to be a solid batter.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on May 1, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it was quite a fall from grace that he had.
I would have the patience if we had an unlimited payroll. I think he’s generally a likable guy (excepting his reaction to his demotion and general shittiness last year – he’s admitted he more or less gave up) and I hate to see anyone fail at their dream. But we can’t afford to spend 6 million on a right fielder with an OPS+ below 100. Maybe he’ll progress more this year, but I don’t think you can learn walks. You can maybe learn some patience, but getting walks is a lot more than that. He doesn’t seem to know how to fight a pitch off very well, hence all the weak pop ups to second and shallow center. But I do hope he can make it – I’d rather not bring up Heyward next year…but it seems Frenchy will be in the same boat as Giles was a few years back: a decent veteran who’s best years are behind him with a viable, cheap replacement. And Giles was non-tendered. So…sorry about the rambling post, but Jeffy’s future in Atlanta seems bleak.
by Weldon on May 1, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No man, that’s all cool, you have every reason to think that, considering Francoeur’s Jeckyll and Hyde career thus far.
It would be some sort of imaginary fantasy to see Frenchy fight his way to a 3-2 count and then foul off a couple of sliders, and then sit tight at a high fastball, and then quietly shed the shin guard and take his walks kill.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on May 1, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am the only one....
…who gets a George Clooney vibe from Javier?
by sddbaker on May 1, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
mean mugging
don’t fuck with Javy!
Stop staring at my D-cup.
by mistress on May 1, 2009 1:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh Jaleesa
you so crazy
60% of the time, it works every time
by ATLandUNC on May 1, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dont look into his eyes….hes trying to hypnotize you!!!!
by bravesguy311 on May 1, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's the face he made after gondeee's post during the WBC
“whatchoo call me?? …. Venezuelan? … do THESE look like Venezuelan features to you?!!”
by RehabReject on May 1, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if Kawakami is suffering from the 5 day lay offs as opposed to the 6 days off they get in Japan? Maybe that explains why his starts are getting worse each time out, because he isn’t getting enough time to recover in between and so he just comes into the next one more tired than last time.
by yondaime4 on May 1, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He can take the rest of the year off as far as I’m concerned. Or be an $8m spot starter. I’d be stunned if we don’t see Hanson come June 1st.
If Dunn walks 30 fewer times, he'll drive in 15 more runs. This is thanks to the scientifically proven formula: RBI = (this is nonsense) (I made it all up).
Here's a stat: Wins as manager: Dusty Baker, 1,162; Bill James, 0.
by TradeAndruw on May 1, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
KK = BB
He has half as many walks as he did all last season in Japan… and we’re only in May.
by RehabReject on May 1, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Ross has stepped in pretty good for Heap, his defense is great and on occasion, he hits one where/when we need it. He’s no McCann, but I think he’s done a respectable job.
One stat that stood out to me was our “Runs Scored” so far this season. We’re the lowest in the NL East at only 85 and there are only 4 other teams with fewer in all of MLB. We have a few games where we put runs up, but then there are the streaks where we can’t score for a week.
On a positive note, our “Runs Scored Against” is low too because of our great pitching but at some point we have to start finding a way to consistently get the bodies across home plate.
I’m personally hoping for a kickass May and put April behind us.
by NCChopper on May 1, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting perspective from WPA...
WPA (Win Probability Added) is an awesome statistic that measures exactly how much a given player is contributing to his team’s chances of winning. It gives players for good play, but it gives extra credit for good work in high-leverage situations. You can find it over at FanGraphs. Anyway, according to WPA, your April MVPs and LVPs:
Hitting MVP: Chipper Jones…gondeee nailed this one.
Hitting LVP: Yunel Escobar…this is really interesting, because while Escobar has been dynamite with RISP (1.276 OPS), he’s been utterly horrible in high-leverage situations (.133/.188/.333, including 2 GIDP in 17 PA). It appears that he’s been doing most of his good work when it doesn’t really matter, and making most of his outs when it does matter. Anderson’s WPA is definitely negative, but he’s ranked higher than Escobar and a couple others because he hasn’t played nearly as much.
Pitching MVP: Jair Jurrjens…he gets major credit from WPA numbers because he’s pitched well in close games. Throwing 7 2/3 innings of scoreless ball in a game where your team only scores one run is the definition of helping your team win. While it’s the same performance-wise as a guy that throws 7 2/3 scoreless in a blowout game, in terms of PRACTICALLY helping the team, it counts more to pitch better in a game where your team can’t score.
Pitching LVP: Kenshin Kawakami…gondeee got this one also.
by tgthree on May 1, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff.
One question though…doesn’t hitting with RISP consist of being a high leverage situation?
by Smoltz's Beard on May 2, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jair Jurrjens, Tom Glavine 2.0
2-2 with a 1.72 era. Feels like the 90s.
He’s my pitching MVP out of sympathy.
by l0stnumber on May 1, 2009 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good picks
Your choices are good Gondeee. Though I think it’s a toss up between Andersen & Johnson for LVP. Here’s hoping Kelley snaps out of it.
by adc62 on May 1, 2009 6:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
According to Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement...
Most Valuable Hitter – Chipper Jones, 4.2 RAR
2nd – David Ross, 3.9 RAR
Least Valuable Hitter – Kelly Johnson, 2.4 Runs Below Replacement
2nd – Garret Anderson, 2.1 Runs Below Replacement
Most Valuable Pitcher – Javier Vasquez, 13.2 RAR
2nd – Jair Jurrjens, 7.1 RAR, and Derek Lowe, 7 RAR
Least Valuable Pitcher – Kenshin Kawakami, -1.3 RAR
If we factor in positional and defensive adjustments for the hitters, Ross comes out as the most valuable. That being said, I don’t like dealing with defensive numbers until at least the midseason mark because of the sample size bias.
by BraveBronco0121 on May 1, 2009 9:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All things aside…Ross has been pretty awesome in place of McCann.
by Smoltz's Beard on May 2, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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