Bullpen usage
So we all know about the terrible collapse yesterday. It pretty much ruined my day.
Then, after I got out of class, I'm listening to The Brian Kenny Show on ESPN radio and I got angrier.
Brian Kenny had Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus on and they were talking about the Braves game. What I hadn't thought about and he brought to light was the manager's use of the bullpen and more specifically Bobby Cox.
Managers have slotted pen spots, for example, Soriano gets the 8th and Gonzalez gets the 9th. For the most part, they refuse to pitch these guys out of their slot.
Why do they do this?
Its so they don't get blamed for a loss in the 8th or 9th. Say yesterday he brings in Gonzalez in the 7th and he gets out of the jam, then Moylan gives it up in the bottom of the 9th. The media will kill him for "wasting" his closer in the 7th inning (although the game was on the line).
This absolutely KILLS ME. Soriano and Gonzalez are obviously our 2 best relief pitchers and are good in high pressure situations. So why on earth would Bobby not bring Gonzalez in the 7th to get us out of the jam and possibly save the lead?
It makes no sense. Especially with 1 out, the bases loaded with Victorino, Utley, and Howard coming up. How do coaches like Roger and Bobby come to the conclusion that its better to put Jorge Campillo in that situation?
It's to avoid blame. The set up guys and closers are defined by statistics nowadays. Holds and Saves. Which is beyond stupid - you put them in when the game is on the line, no matter what inning it is (for the most part).
ESPECIALLY IN THE 7TH INNING!
Ok, I'm done.
Next Victim: The Washington Nationals
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Bobby's old school
Last year, I said this as a compliment to him. This year, this’s not so flattering.
Bobby gets an F for not putting the win before egos, and balls to Soriano or Gonzalez if they don’t want to pitch in a non-save situation, because the team winning is more important than individual statistics, and they’re not looking at the bigger picture if they think stats alone are going to get them as much money as winning baseball games is.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
I wish they'd just remove the save stat or replace it with something else
Before the stupid new mentality of save your closers for save situations came up, someone like Gonzo or Soriano would have actually shown up in the 7th.
they could remove the hold stat and call a save anytime a pitcher comes in to a “save” situation and leaves with the lead he gets a save. This would include finishing hte game… so essentialy we merge holds and saves into one stat. That would preserve the relevacne of what the save means and actually make it a little better
for the fun of it we could even come up with a new name for it like a “shitsngiggle”
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
but...but...
most of the managers in my fantasy leagues like to pay for saves during the auctions…what about them? They have feelings too!
The save and the “Closer” are the most over-rated stats and positions in baseball.
Exhibit A: 
Seriously, did anyone see what he did yesterday??? Yet, he still got credit for a save…this chaps my ass.
Penis
by justincredubil02 on Apr 9, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
He was complete garbage yesterday. I was watching the Reds feed, they brought up a great point, if you were to just stand up there and not swing, would KRod throw 4 balls before throwing 3 strikes??
best defensive shortstop in baseball hahahahahahahahahah (omar visquel)
at least, until he caught on
and realized that you were not going to swing…
Penis
by justincredubil02 on Apr 9, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Tactics
When Bobby first returned to Atlanta from Toronto, he occasionally made situational pitching changes. But Bobby hasn’t seemed to like tactical pitching changes much in recent years. As the OP said, Bobby likes to slot his releivers. He has a closer, a set-up guy or two, a seventh inning guy, and a couple of long relievers. He doesn’t make tactical lefty-righty changes as much as most other managers. When Bobby puts a relief pitcher out there, he almost always intends for the guy to pitch a full inning. It has always seemed to me that the Braves drop some games unnecessarikly because of this, and I have never liked Bobby’s tactical use of his bullpen in more general terms either. But Bobby will soon be a Hall of Fame manager. So I just sit there in front of the TV and wonder about things like this.
I think it’s jim caple who argues that the closer is the most overrated position in sports. His strategy is similar to yours and the strategy used in baseball 30 or 40 years ago — instead of having a closer, you have a ‘fireman.’ the fireman is your best relief pitcher and he comes in during important situations, which would be bases loaded in the seventh, not bases empty in the ninth.
Statistics show that a three-run lead in the ninth means you will almost certainly win the game, no matter what. Using your best reliever there is a waste.
Agree with you 100%. I’ve echoed this statement in numerous threads over the years: “closers” should not be saved for only the 9th inning. It’s unfortunate that the chances of Bobby continuing his same mentality are pretty much a lock.
Read about this theory, and others in Baseball Between the Numbers.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
+1
Awesome book.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 9, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I completely agree with the theory, but I don’t necessarily agree with the application. Cox ran four guys out of the pen, not one of them threw strikes. IMO, that’s not a miscalculation. You don’t burn Gonzo in that situation. It’s still the seventh, you’ve already used your other available lefty, and will undoubtedly have to face Howard, Utley, Ibanez again.
I questioned the use of the bullpen a lot last season. I’ll give the argument for Soriano, but I don’t think that was a situation for Gonzo. Second guess Bobby all you want, but the fact is, three professional relief pitchers went out there and not one threw strikes. That’s not Cox’s fault.
Gonzo shouldn’t have been used, especially after he was used for no reason just last night. But Soriano should have been brought in instead of Campy, and I do blame Bobby for that.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 9, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
This!
I haven’t read below this post yet so forgive me is someone has already brought up this point … but why in the hell did Bobby use Gonzo in game 1 with a four run lead AND Sori/Gonzo both in Game 2 with the same lead? I’m one of the biggest Bobby supporters there is but this cost us the game last night. Bobby needs to take one on the chin for this bull ….!
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
Four run lead in that bandbox dissapears very quickly. Yeah, three run lead gets you a save, but how many big leads have we blown against Philly? You got a team on the ground, you bring in Gonzo to make sure they stay there.
Understand your point, but i’m not sure you see mine. Lowe had only thrown 97 pitches through 8 innings and he was rolling. He could have very easily made it through the 9th on 15 or less pitches which makes bringing Gonzo in at that point a bad move. Lowe should have been given the chance to close out the game and had he gone deep on the first batter then bring in Gonzo.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
I know
There is no excuse, not in the Major Leagues at least. That’s just Busch league.
Joined the Draft Percy Harvin Bandwagon!
I agree
I said why not bring in Soriano with the Bases Loaded and 1 out to face Utley and Howard. You needed a strikeout in that situation and Soriano is our best K reliever in the pen. He could have gotten the last two outs in the 7th and let him get 1 or 2 outs in the 8th then bring in Gonzo and let him get a 4 out save. This isnt brain surgery here. I have said for 10 years that Bobby Cox is the worst SITUATIONAL MANAGER In all of baseball. Here is why how many times can we bunt a guy over to 2nd or 3rd or hit the ball to the right side to move the guy over. One of the 1st things u learn as a kid is to bunt it aint hard. Cox’s mis-use of the bullpen cost the braves at least 1 WS title in the 90’s and probably 2.
but moving runners over in this fashion is unproductive as the out means the value added by moving the runner over one base, is negated by the out that is produced (this isnt science its called probablity… well i guess it is kinda science w/e)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
listen
whether Bobby should have could have put in a closer or whatnot, one of the barrage of relievers we brought in should have been able to throw a strike. Thats all. If they beat us they beat us, but we just handed them that victory yesterday, and i cant justify all the blame on Bobby
Bullpen a team question mark?
Well, all tactical discussions of bullpen management nothwithstanding, the elephant in the living room is whether the Braves’ 2009 bullpen is the kind of pen that one sees on a contending team. I hope it is. Obviously, it’s too early to know the answer, though.
Although this was not the issue last night in Philadelphia, I think it ultimately boils down to whether Mike Gonzalez is an elite closer. If he is, the rest of the pen will probably fall into place once Bobby sees what everyone can do. But If he isn’t, the pen will struggle all year. Gonzalez looked like an elite closer in Pittsburgh in 2006 before having to undergo surgery in 2007. Everyone says Gonzalez’s velocity is back now, but it’s pretty obvious to me that he is struggling with his command. Maybe this is just early season jitters.
If Gonzalez can close effectively, then someone from among Soriano, Moylan, or Boyer will soon fall into place as the Braves’ set-up man. Buddy Carlyle is obviously going to be the long man. I don’t think Eric O’Flaherty will last long as the second bullpen lefty, but that role will be filled eventually by Boone Logan or an acquisition..
Even so, I think this pen will have to undergo some adjustments and evolution, possibly painful at times (like last night). I just don’t think Bobby is close to having all the right guys in all the right roles yet.
Right capabilities
Bad execution. This team has pretty much all the tools necessary to pitch to most scenarios, but the execution has just been poor.
Mike Gonzalez – Closer of LHP variety
Rafael Soriano – Closer-capable of RHP variety
Peter Moylan – Deception, induces lots of ground balls for GIDPs
Blaine Boyer – Heat thrower with good curveball
Eric O’Flaherty – the LOOGY
Buddy Carlyle – long relief, mop-up guy
Jeff Bennett – long relief, can induce ground balls as well, can spot start if necessary
Jorge Campillo – long relief, emergency starter, smoke and mirrors, slow down the batters’ timing guy
If these guys pitched to their expectations even 70% of the time, I don’t think I would argue much. Even better if they do so, in sequence as they are brought in.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
i was looking at a writeup on Boyer somewhere ( i forget where) and it said he has a changeup and fastball…. is it a change or a curve can I get this clairfied
also i heard he is trying to develop a third pitch, a slider to go with his other two
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
There’s no way the lollipop action he gets on his slow pitch can be anything other than a curve…
I saw him last year during a BP game practicing a slider. Even on a flat surface he looked uncomfortable throwing it, and clearly he hasn’t gotten the hang of it enough to use it in a game.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
ya i thoguht it was more of a curve than a change as well, but unfortunately living in FL i dont get to see many games and havent really seen a lot fo Boyer (fortunately or unfortunately)
but as always ur a bastion of knowledge… i thank you
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Boyer
I think Boyer has some upside and a nice fastball. His command isn’t terrific at times (like last night, obviously), but he is still only 27 years old. That’s young for a relief pitcher.
The question with Boyer….and with all of the Braves’ relievers….is whether they are being used as effectively as they can be. Bobby is going to be a Hall of Fame manager, so I only offer these kinds of questions as a discussion point. But it’s hard to believe last night’s game cou;ld not have been won with more asseryive management of the bullpen in the bottom of the seventh inning, somewhere between 10-3 and 11-10.
I think managers often look at these games in the early part of the season as a chance to see what everyone can do. But each game counts the same. Last night’s loss has the same weight in the standings as a loss in September. If this team misses the playoffs by a couple of games, I hope it won’t be because of 2-3 games like yesterday.
I don’t make this point to be a fire engine chaser. The NL East Division is the best division in baseball, and it’s a tough challenge for the Braves to make up a 20-game deficit on one year.
u can blame bobby for a lot of things top of the list would be bullpen management (im not trying to knock him but i think managers are vastly overrated in baseball…even so Bobby is one of the best)… However, las tnights game is certainly not Bobby’s fault. Gonzo should not have been used the two previous nights, and maybe that changes the outcome… you would think with Gonzo available then Bobby uses Soriano earlier and the day is saved …maybe…
but the fact is when u trot out 4-5 releiver you would like to think that one of the them can throw strikes (the probability of winning that game pre blowup was 99%, according to BigJoe via fangraphs).. i dont beleive Bobby can be to blame when u trot that many guys out their and they all suffer an epic FAIL… could he have used Soriano (maybe), should EOF pitched again last night after 1 1/3 the night before (maybe not).. .but those moves shouldnt have altered the outcome of that game…
Like i said im not saying Bobby has and doesnt make mistakes with the pen and its usage… im just saying this is not one we can blame on him, because obviously the gods of baseball conspired against us for some reason ( I blame FW for not signing Dunn)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
las tnights game is certainly not Bobby’s fault
Alright but…
Gonzo should not have been used the two previous nights
Who’s fault was that (even though he had a day off in between, I get your point)?
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 9, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
what I’msaying is it was Bobby’s fault that Gonzo was used two days in a row, however Bobby shouldn’t be blamed for the loss last night due to this misstep.
I understand that if Gonzo is available, that allows Bobby to use Soriano earlier (despite the fact that Soriano should be used regardless) {just realized im arguing against myself a bit}
Ill make my argument very clear. Bobby should have made better decisions in managing the bullpen, however that is not the reason we lost the game and Bobby shouldn’t be blamed as such.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Gotcha.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 9, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree
I am compelled to agree here. Sometime during the meltdown of the seventh inning….sometime between 10-3 and 11-10….a bullpen move could have been made to get a pitcher out there (Gonzalez) who would be the best man to stop the bleeding. This game didn’t have to be lost.
And I still think Moylan should have been DLed for a couple of weeks. I said that in March, and I’m saying it again now. They included Pete on the roster because his velocity is there, and because they foresaw that their bullpen is a little light. But Pete’s command isn’t there yet. And that has already cost them a game.
But all that is water under the bridge now.
Moving forward, I just think there will have to be changes in this bullpen. Moylan and Soriano may turn out to be fine setup men by June or July, but they aren’t ready yet. O’Flaherty isn’t going to cut it. The pen has already cost this team a winnable game, and there will be more blown games of this nature if something isn’t done about this. When September rolls around, they will want some of these games back. I’m not saying the sky is falling….just stating the obvious.
The Four-Run Lead
I’ve always had this belief that it’s about the worst margin of lead to have going into the 9th. Closers balk because it’s not a save, and even if they allow a run, and then close it out, it doesn’t count as one. They claim not being able to get amped up enough because there’s no statistical achievement behind it, or like Mike Gonzalez, just can’t seem to do well outside of a save situation.
Bringing in a “needs work” guy might result in some base-runners, and relief pitchers are particular creatures that like nice clean canvases, and not having to deal with someone else’s mess. WIth zero out and two on, 4-runs doesn’t seem so scary anymore, and relievers treat it as such.
In 2007, Moylan was perfect for those situations, because he was just so glad to be in the majors. It makes sense to give it to a set-up guy or something, but in the 7th inning, I get the impression that Bobby wanted to save Soriano for a later inning instead.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
I get the impression that Bobby wanted to save Soriano for a later inning instead.
That’s obvious, and my entire point. He’s wrong about feeling the need to save him. It’s all good though, no need to keep going back and forth.
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 9, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I don’t make this point to be a fire engine chaser
so I only offer these kinds of questions as a discussion point
As long as you’re presenting your side of the discussion politely and professionally there aren’t going to be many people that jump on your case. Well, maybe bigjoe…
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 9, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Gonzo was absolutely filthy last year (in save situations)… i am one of those that believe he is very good as a closer. Also, I dont prescribe to the idea that if Gonzo struggles our pen isnt as good. I think we have three potential closers (althought its a stretch to say Moylan is a closer i suppose). If gonzo struggles bump him down to tset up man like he did in 07, and move Soriano into the role. If they both struggle, well then we’re fucked… but I would like to think one of them will suceed at a high level.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Not sure about that
I never saw Moylan as a closer, and I think his current recovery kills that idea for several reasons….not the least of which is that he probably won’t be pitching on consecutive days much.
Soriano does not look right to me. His good velocity isn’t there yet. If the Braves get caught with having to use Soriano as a closer early in the season, i think they are in trouble.
Gonzalez is the guy who needs to get it done. If he can do this, they should be okay. If he can’t, there will be trouble.
Last night vividly illustrated how a sloppy bullpen performance can suck the energy out of a team in an inning or two. Regardless of how much improvement has been produced in the rotation and other areas, the bullpen will have to step up or else this team will struggle.
Gonzalez and Soriano
Arent the problem. Its the use of them and the question marks are the middle relief guys. Campillo is not built for pressure situations, I still cannot understand why they brought him in.
Just like royhobbs said:
Peter Moylan – Deception, induces lots of ground balls for GIDPs
Blaine Boyer – Heat thrower with good curveball
Eric O’Flaherty – the LOOGY (althought i have not been impressed, SIGN OHMAN PLEASE!)
Buddy Carlyle – long relief, mop-up guy
Jeff Bennett – long relief, can induce ground balls as well, can spot start if necessary
Jorge Campillo – long relief, emergency starter, smoke and mirrors, slow down the batters’ timing guy
But none of these guys are a sure thing.
Joined the Draft Percy Harvin Bandwagon!
i have the best idea ever
use Tommy G as our LOOGY/7th Inning guy, and bring up Tommy Hanson to start. FANTASTIC!
Joined the Draft Percy Harvin Bandwagon!
sometimes i feel like this site is the internet version of Groundhogs Day

Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
haha
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 9, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
btw u probably dont remember but u once chastised (wrong word but im too lazy too bust out the thesaurus) me for not adjusting the size of my picture and now ever time i do it (change the size of the picture… pervs) i think of you
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
I suck at HTML and all things related
how do I change the size of a photo that is linked?
Penis
by justincredubil02 on Apr 9, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
20 seconds
RIght here. I’m not typing this shit out again.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
and
In case you were wondering about pixel sizes … the Bill Murray/Groundhog day picture above is 369px wide X 300px tall.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
I have faith in the pen
Like Swo12bv said, Gonzalez is lights outs under pressure, if he is healthy I think we have a quality closer. Boyer, E O’f, and Bennett all scare the shit out of me when they pitch. Carlyle and Campy are good for certain situations. The main thing that gives me hope is I think we have some quality arms on the farm that we will be able to go to. I’m pretty confident were gonna see some Medlen action, possibly Marek, and maybe even Valdez. EO won’t last long, and frankly, it was a stupid decision to even have him make the team in the first place.
Bullpen chemistry
Some of the right pieces are already in place, but I just don’t think the bullpen is quite right yet. Watch Kris Medlen’s progress in Gwinnett in April and May, because Medlen will be in Atlanta soon. I would guess we will also see Manny Acosta and Boone Logan by June. They just don’t have this pen right yet.
Carlyle – Probably in the right role.
Gonzalez – Probably in the right role.
Soriano – He’s going to be the set-up man if he’s healthy, but he needs a couple of weeks to re-establish his good command.
Moylan – His velocity is already back, but his command isn’t there yet. Should have been DL’ed for a couple of weeks, then brought along slowly. This mistake has already cost them a game. Eventually he will share set-up duties with Soriano, but he’s a month from being ready for those duties IMO.
Boyer – Sometimes he looks great. Sometimes he looks like a flop. At times he seems to have closer stuff. At other times he seems completely lost out there. Excellent velocity, but his command is a work in progress. He’s still only 27 years old, and Bobby badly over-used him in 2008. 2009 is clearly the make or break season for him in Atlanta..
Bennett – I don’t think he will be a Brave by August. His stuff isn’t very good, and I really can’t see what he adds to this pen.
Campillo – He had some good outings in 2008 as a starter. Now they have him back in long relief, and they are trying to get him to throw his mediocre fastball more. I like his grit, but I’ll be surprised if this works out well.
O’Flaherty – They like his velocity and his 2007 record in Seattle. But the guy has already been in the majors for three seasons, and has a career ERA over 6. He has walked 30 batters in 72 career innings. Unless he can throw the ball in the strike zone, he’s toast. I don’t think this is going to work out, and I wonder how many games they are willing to blow to learn that. I’m guessing the leash is short.
haha, nice
You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.
by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 14, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

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