Blaine Boyer: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
by gondeee on Mar 5, 2009 8:36 AM EST
in Community Projections
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PrintThis player preview was written by Josh G., who posts here as jeg.
Atlanta native, Blaine Boyer is slated to serve as a middle reliever for the Braves in 2009. After a very successful rookie campaign in 2005 as one of the “Baby Braves”, Boyer has struggled to perform at high level of play. Injury derailed his 2006 season and set Blaine back in his development but he was able to regain his plus stuff following rehabilitation.
Lack of stuff has never been a problem for Blaine, as he owns a mid-90’s four-seam fastball and a sharp downer curveball. Blaine also throws a low-90’s two-seam fastball and solid change. Boyer’s stuff has prompted some of his fans around the league, including John Smoltz, to suggest he could be an effective closer in the future.
Boyer’s 2008 season was a tale of two halves. Boyer started strong in 2008, posting 3.93 ERA and striking out 45 batters while allowing only 47 hits in 52 and 2/3 first half innings. In the second half, Boyer was knocked around by opposing batters to the tune of an 11.17 ERA, 26 hits, and 7 homeruns in just 19.1 innings.
Injuries to Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano forced the Braves to use Boyer more frequently in high leverage situations in 2008 and he wore down in the second half. Blaine’s 76 appearances tied for the 7th highest total in all of MLB. With the goal of improved conditioning, Boyer spent the 2009 offseason working out with John Smoltz and believes the problems he experienced in the second half of 2008 will not occur in 2009.
The organization has long been a fan of Boyer’s, though he was rumored to be part of the package headed to San Diego for Jake Peavy. Boyer seems to have earned Bobby Cox’s trust and with a healthy Moylan, Soriano, and Gonzalez, his work load is set to decrease. The organization is expecting Boyer to pitch well for an entire season and not just the first half of one. The key to Boyer’s success in 2009 is better endurance and with that comes maintaining the lower homeruns allowed totals he posted in the first half of 2008 throughout a full season. With his talent and strong K/BB and H/9 ratios, improved endurance will allow Boyer to post the best season of his young career.
Thanks to jeg for a terrific preview of Boyer.
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First, great preview jeg.
I think this year will be a great audition for the closer role for ’10. If Gonzo or Soriano have great/healthy years we could be outbid for them (or we could pony up the cash) or if they have poor years then likely they will walk. How Boyer and Moylan in particular perform this year should determine who will close next year. Both have closer stuff but they need to prove that they can bring it every apearance all season (to a fair extent). Acosta and Merek could also be given a look this season for next years CL.
boyer....
imo, looks dominant 10% of the time and very hittable 90% of the time. let’s hope he finds success this season. however, i hope that his roster spot is not set in stone. with the live arms that the braves have (that are out of options), boyer is expendable. since phil stockman’s change to the bullpen, he has been incredible and has put up better numbers than boyer. i am on a campaign for a 2-man aussie “hold and save” out of the pen in 2010.
“The Kangaroo 2” Stockman and Moylan
someone will most definitely pick up stockman if he does not break with the big club. no way in hell he makes it through waivers. this will be a joey devine-ish mistake on the braves part (a cheap, dominant, potential closer).
Your dead on about Stockman. I don’t see Moylan as a closer, mainly due to the lack of K’s. I don’t mind a closer that gets ground balls but I want to see someone out there who has the stuff to reach back and get the strike out when he needs it. I just see Moylan as someone who pitches to contact too much for my tastes.
Kimbrel is very likely to be ready in 2010, along with Valdez and Marek. If we can’t resign Gonzo, we have enough closer types that we can throw them against the wall and see who sticks. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morton contend for a late inning relief role in the future. His stuff would play up in short stints and he could dominate with his mid to high 90’s FB, sharp slider, and plus curve.
"We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism,
but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism,
until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism." --Nikita Khrushchev
I wanted to ask the braves experts something....
It seems that in the past few years, the braves have valued their AA system more than AAA (calling prime players up from AA and keeping utility guys at AAA). Do you see a change in philosophy now that the AAA affiliate will be so close to Atlanta?
Could be way off, but isn’t AAA used more for the people that are fringe players? People that go back and forth from the minors to the majors, whereas most legit prospects will report to AA and jump to the majors…maybe having a short stay at AAA just to test themselves against people that have had a cup of coffee before?
I’d have to imagine the average age in AAA is rather high, right?
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 5, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
I've always believed
That AA is where the true nest of real prospects are for most organizations. The median age of AA players tends to be early-twenties, and where kids really prove whether or not they’re major-league material.
As Beard mentions, I’ve always thought that AAA is more for fringe players, and cusp guys who aren’t quite good enough for full-time show exposure, but are pretty good backups in a pinch. Also, AAA seems like a place where highly touted prospects also hone their craft because they’re just not quite needed yet at the major-league level, and/or financial reasons to prevent super-two status, while giving the prospect the highest level of “free” opposition available.
For example, Hanson seems popularly believed to be slated for AAA at the start of the 09 season, because he’s already proven his capability at AA, and the Braves have (love it or hate it) five starters pretty much slated going into the season. So, Hanson isn’t quite needed yet, therefore, sticking him in AAA gives him a higher competition level than AA, while also not starting his service time, all while giving him a chance to cross that border to iron out those few things people have concerns with.
But yeah, I could be totally off here too.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
No surprise that you put it much better than I did.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 5, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not exactly sure who
but someone (cbwilk possibly?) mentioned that he thought the Braves didn’t send any of their top guys to Richmond because of the poor facilities at the stadium. It seems that other teams have sent more of their prospects to AAA than the Braves have recently.
I don’t have time to look it up right now but I feel certain I’ve seen that the Rays, Red Sox, Twins, Reds, and others have sent most of their top guys to the International League as part of their progression. I could be wrong but it seems like this organization operates differently from the “norm” in regards to how they have used AAA.
Last year, guys like Lillibridge, Reyes, and Morton have spent significant time at AAA so maybe the organizational perspective on AAA is starting to change but I am curious to see how they use it now that its in their back yard.
"We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism,
but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism,
until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism." --Nikita Khrushchev
Yes, good call. I mentioned that a long while back. I’ve fought the unfounded theory that AA is where all the prospects are and AAA is a holding pen for nobodies for a long time. It’s simply not true. Sure, the guys who are ultimate studs are going to make the jump over AAA, but that’s so few players.
Taking a look at my 2008 and 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbooks, from Jim Callis’ top 50 prospects, In AAA, I saw Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Homer Bailey, David Price, Jacoby Ellsbury, Wade Davis, Reid Brignac, Andrw McCutchen, Joey Votto, and Adam Miller.
Of course, in AA, I saw Clay Buchholz, Cameeron Maybin, Matt Wieters, Matt LaPorta, Lars Anderson, Jordan Schafer, Gio Gonzalez, Tommy Hanson, Alcides Escobar, Chris Tillman, Jordan Zimmerman, Matt Gamel, and again (actually first), Wade Davis.
Sure, the AA list is longer, but those guys on the AAA listt are no slouches, a few of them are already established Major Leaguers. In fact, looking at those two top 50 lists, I think I was seeing more guys I saw in Single A.
Yes, teams put more 4A type guys on AAA rosters, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there are less prospects. Actually, with attrition, there are just fewer prospects as you climb the ladder; guys prove they’re not as good as projected. And there are plenty of scrubs on the AA rosters, the difference is that they’ll never play in the majors.
www.dropoutproductions.com
I believe young hitters in particular can benefit from facing older, fringe major league type pitchers. Generally, those older pitchers in AAA have better command and off-speed stuff than do the younger prospects. While nothing can fully prepare you to face the Roy Oswalt’s and Johan Santana’s of the world, it is helpful to see all the qualities they have, albeit at different times. They see the raw arm strength and velocity of the young guys and some have sharp breaking pitches. Then, they see guys with fringe stuff but who can spot their fringe stuff and have better changeups in particular.
"We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism,
but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism,
until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism." --Nikita Khrushchev
That’s a great point. I think I mentioned that talking about Schafer at some point in the offseason. People who don’t know tend to dismiss AAA, but the level of play is outstanding. The only difference between a Major Leaguer and a minor leaguer is consistency; the better guys can be good every time out. AAA is no joke and, like you said, it’s as close as you can get to the big leagues. I absolutely think both pitchers and hitters can benefit from seeing guys who have been around, guys who are long term professionals.
www.dropoutproductions.com
I’ve fought the unfounded theory that AA is where all the prospects are and AAA is a holding pen for nobodies for a long time.
I don’t think anyone on here was saying that, in so many words. I’m aware that even the top prospects spend time in AAA, but I guess my question was do the teams put them there because it’s part of their organization’s natural progression or are they there because the prospects destroyed AA but there isn’t room from them in the majors yet? Maybe the two are one in the same, I dunno.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 5, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry Beard, I didn’t mean to insinuate that anybody in this particular conversation was making that point, but I hear it so often that I get a hair trigger response.
I think, ideally, ever team would like their best prospects to show some level of dominance at every level of the minors. But, I think teams’ needs prevent that a lot. Guys get rushed up because the Major League team needs them (or cause it’s better PR than having a losing season). I also think sometimes guys are just ready after AA. Brian McCann is a great example of a guy who simply didn’t need any more time in the Minors. He was ready.
As far as keeping a guy in AAA because there isn’t room for him in the Majors, I think only a poorly run organization would have this problem. Frankly, if you think your top prospect, a game changing type guy, is ready to move up to the majors, you better have a perennial All Star (or two) blocking him to leave him in AAA. If you think he’s ready, you know the player thinks he’s ready, and when guys are in the minors when they think they should be in the Majors, good things never happen. (Before anyone brings up Tommy Hanson and Jordan Schafer, they’re not quite ready yet. When they are, it won’t be anything to find a place for them.)
www.dropoutproductions.com
Good stuff.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 5, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Boyer needs a psychiatrist
…or a hypnotist.
I rag on Boyer a lot, but he’s one guy I wouldn’t mind seeing on the team in the long run, if he could just get his act together. It is very true that he has some dominating stuff, but the problem I think he has is just in his head. Put him in a game during mop-up duty, or when there’s zero pressure, and Boyer eats batters.
But give him men on base, or a scenario where the other team has some momentum and needs to be snuffed out, and Boyer never seemed capable of delivering. In high-pressure situations, Boyer never seemed to trust his curveball; there were plenty of mop-up times where he got guys looking like idiots standing like statues, as his curve plopped into the K-zone at 69mph for a called strike three, because they were expecting yet another 95mph heater.
Last I saw Boyer in 2008, he was working on a slider during BP. It looked really uncomfortable watching him throw on flat surface, but hopefully with all his off-season workouts with Smoltz, he might have picked up some pointers. A third pitch would do his repertoire wonders.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
still....
with the location of gwinnett, wouldnt it make more sense to keep all players on the cusp of major league talent as close to home as possible?
I doubt they’re going to uproot what seems to be an organizational philosophy just for some geographical convenience.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 5, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
I kind of see your point, but at the same time, how would you explain the last few decades of the Braves housing their AAA in Richmond, Virginia, which is a good 10-hour drive from Atlanta?
Another theory I had is that minor-league teams are spaced out generously to give the players a taste of what living away from home would feel like. Baseball aside, players are still people, who have to endure the lifestyle change of the baseball life. The sooner a kid/prospect gets used to living the baseball life, the better the transition to the grander stage of the Majors could be.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
Bobby's overuse
I believe Boyer’s struggles late last year are the result of one thing——Bobby overusing him. Think about how many times Bobby would pitch Boyer for several straight days. I like Boyer, then again I’m just hoping for one of the “Baby Braves” besides McCann to fully pan-out.
Bobby’s overuse was a major problem for Boyer last year. More bullpen depth and more innings from the starting rotation should cure that ill. As for the “Baby Braves”, Kelly Johnson has been an above average offensive second bagger for the last two years and I think he still has more potential to tap into. So, he looks like the best bet to fully pan out.
"We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism,
but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism,
until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism." --Nikita Khrushchev
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