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The Best Worst Money the Braves Have Ever Spent

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More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

When the Atlanta Braves signed Chipper Jones to a three-year contract extension with a vesting fourth year early on Tuesday, they were doing more than securing the services of a future Hall of Fame player who has spent his entire career with the organization, they were also putting back together the image of an organization that had been fire bombed by bad luck and bad agents this off-season. Just as they likely overpaid for their new ace pitcher Derek Lowe, they likely spent money unwisely in a baseball sense when they decided to pay Chipper Jones big bucks at ages 40 and 41. Some players perform at an elite level at age 40 and beyond, but most do not.

But this is one of those decisions you don't make with stats or all that much logic, you make it with emotion and desperation. The Braves needed a revival of the face of the franchise, and with Chipper Jones they cemented that face of the franchise for the rest of his playing career. They needed, not good, but great news, and this gives them that rose-colored headline that ends their spring training and their off-season on a positive note.

In baseball logic, you don't usually pay a player big money who is coming off five consecutive injury plagued seasons. With all we know about the decline of players as they get older, and with no external supplements to turn to, why would an organization, an NL DH-less organization, sign an untradeable veteran at age 37 (on April 24th) to a contract that eats up 15 percent of their payroll for each of the next three (possibly four) years.

This makes me think back to something Keith Law said in the Q&A I did with him in February. He said, "[the Braves] organizational weakness [is] their excessive loyalty to certain players." He singled out Jeff Francoeur and Tom Glavine, but we can apply this same idea to the Chipper Jones signing.

Is this a sign of organizational strength or organizational weakness?

While loyalty is not something talent evaluators like Law can assign a value to, it is something that players in an organization pay very close attention to. Throughout the tenure of Bobby Cox, the Braves have gone almost out of their way to maintain their loyalty to players, whether it comes to contracts or playing time. This has worked out well for the Braves when it comes to contract time, as many homegrown players feel they need to reciprocate that loyalty and sign for slightly less than market value. Though, when that discount is expected, the backlash as seen in the John Smoltz fiasco this winter, can be a devastating blow to an organization which prides itself on its loyalty to players.

We've also seen this loyalty work out well, and not work out at all, on the field. Giving Kelly Johnson, and his 2-for-34 start in 2005, time to work out his problems has payed off for the Braves, but Ryan Langerhans and his 3-for-44 start in 2007, did not. It's certainly a live-by-the-sword-die-by-the-sword philosophy in every aspect of baseball operations.

But back to Chipper and this enormous contract-slash-retirement-bonus. I'll be the first to say that on first blush I like this signing, but then again, I never professed to subscribe to baseball logic, especially when it comes to "our guys," the "Braves' guys" -- and Chipper is at the head of that class. This contract is probably not a good one in a baseball sense. Yes, Chipper won the batting title last year, but we have to come back to the fact that he missed 34 games and he's failed to drive in 100 runs in four out of the last five seasons, and for that to warrant a three or four-year deal may not be good business sense.

And here is where the conflict happens.

I like the guy, I like that he'll be a Brave for his entire career, I'm glad we're getting a final dose of good news before the season starts, but I don't like tieing up that much money in a player with his history of injuries and an aging body. This is a great day for the Braves, and it may be great for another year or two, but we may be gritting our teeth in several years when we're committing a large portion of our payroll to two guys (Lowe and Chipper) who can hardly take the field.

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Buzzkill.

"Ohhhh shit"-Bobby Cox

by 10-4 on Mar 31, 2009 3:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think

That Chipper is man enough to admit when he can’t get it done. I also think that he is competetive enought to know when he isn’t contributing and in fact hurting his team.

I like the signing, and I like having Chipper around for 3 more years. My motto with Chipper lately has been “120 games of Chipper is > than 140 games of anyone else.”

Penis

by justincredubil02 on Mar 31, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One more thing:

All of that money he SHOULD have been making the past few years that he deferred, the home-town discounts he has given, the positional switches that he has made – I think, for once, the organization owed him this.

Penis

by justincredubil02 on Mar 31, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 31, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I betcha

Chipper’s hittin’ Hooters tonight!

I’m happy with the signing. And in terms of getting nothing for money, hopefully nothing could be worse than Mr. Glass.

"The crows seemed to be calling his name, thought Caw."

by WienerDog on Mar 31, 2009 4:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You know what's sad

It’s when someone tries to compare this contract to the recent signings of Glavine or Smoltz (before this season). Basically what i got from this article you wrote up is that the $13 he is owed each of the next 3 seasons, could of been better spent elsewhere. Is that correct? Because if so, then on who or what position(s)? This was more than a "loyalty’ offer, it was making sure that they sign their STILL best player to a contract that will keep him in Atlanta for what seems to be, the rest of his career.

And could we not be saying the same about the Dodgers and how they handled the whole Manny situation this past offseason? How long did that carry out? And was that wasteful spent money?

by ChipperTeixeira89 on Mar 31, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Untradeable? You could do a lot worse at DH for that price. Chipper and Lowe’s contracts will look much better when the market goes back up.

by TradeAndruw on Mar 31, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The idea that Chipper wouldn’t be worth $13 million over the next three years is fairly absurd. That’s about a ~3 win player, and even if he declines considerably offensively and misses more time than usual he’ll still be worth 3 wins. The upside here is that he produces as he has been the last few years and is worth more like 4-6 wins as he declines.

by 17843 on Mar 31, 2009 5:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Really stupid question...

…in order to find out how many wins a player is worth do I:

- Subtract the league average wOBA by the player’s wOBA
- Divide that by 1.15
- Multiply that by the number of plate appearances (which equals runs above average, right?)
- Divide that by 10?

I could be way off here, or maybe there’s an easier way. Anyone who knows please feel free to enlighten me.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 31, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

goes cross-eyed

GO LARRY!!!!!!! We’re freaking stocked, and the next couple of years look good. I won’t complain at all about 130 games a year. And I always love .364 in any kind of statistic. I would have made this deal in a second. Chipper Jones needs to be in Atlanta as long as possible in some capacity. He’s a living legend.

“But Chief, he’s getting older, blah blah blah, his knees blah blah blah….”

Yes, but even if he had an abysmal year last year (for Chipper), he STILL would have have been going to the Hall. That only sealed the deal. “Like I said”….Go Larry.

"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews

by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Mar 31, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Over at fangraphs

Dave Cameron did a 7-part series on estimating win values. But surely you know this?

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 31, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I was skimming through that and couldn’t find exactly what I was looking for. Figured I might have missed something though which is why I asked.

by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 1, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could just go to Fangraphs and look at the “value wins” column

SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES

by bigjoe on Mar 31, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He has to kill some time updating his spreadsheet and printing it on the entire bedroom wall while his mom finishes cooking the meatloaf.

by soup du jour on Apr 1, 2009 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

MOM WHERE’S THE MEATLOAF!?

by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 1, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cool…just wanted to make sure that was the correct category.

by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 1, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And also I was looking to get some insight as to how they come up with that figure, but I’ll just read the 7 part article I suppose.

by Smoltz's Beard on Apr 1, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Meatloaf generally takes a little while to cook. You have the time.

"Break's over"

by VegasAces on Apr 2, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We’ll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I’ll be the first to admit that I LOVE keeping players around even when they probably shouldn’t be. However, in this situation I don’t see it as a bad move at all. I think Chipper is too proud to take on a contract like this if he was not 100% confident he would be able to live up to it. Call me naive but I think this extension will have him working harder than ever to avoid injuries. I’m not sure how one would do that, but maybe a lot more stretching, etc., could help. Chipper loves this organization more than any of us, and I really see him living up to expections for the next 3 years. A 3 year contract isn’t that huge for a position player, even one of his age. And since the 4th year is a vesting option, it means he’s gonna have to perform to get it.
I applaud Wren for this move and I look forward to seeing Chipper in a Braves uni for 4 more years.

by Bobby Cocks on Mar 31, 2009 10:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was holding out hope

that he would come down this way and DH for his last few years. Growing up a Braves fan and now living in Tampa it would have been excellent.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 1, 2009 9:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

DH would probably be ideal for him

but I get the sense that he’s the type of player who would balk at being a DH. I think he heartily enjoys playing 3rd base.

by soup du jour on Apr 1, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does any player actually like the move to DH?

There are brutes like David Ortiz and Travis Hafner (when he was good) who are pretty much born to hit, and hit for power that were meant to be designated hitters, but I get the impression that many players see the move to DH as a demotion of some sort. I would be willing to venture that a guy like Chipper Jones would feel that way too. Sure, there are a few guys off the top of my head that made the switch (Burrell, Milton Bradley, Cliff Floyd) for various reason, be it they’re albatrosses on D, or injury-prone, but why was Barry Bonds so against it?

The guy was touted as this natural baseball genius at a young age, and many bragged about his high baseball acumen playing shortstop in Florida when he was a kid. Sure, Father Time is creeping up on him, and he’s losing a lot of mobility, but Chipper seems like the kind of guy that thinks he can still play D, and I’m willing to say that he still can at least the span of this contract, or at least two years of it. Chipper also seems like the kind of guy who needs to be out on the field keeping loose and moving around, to prevent himself from getting all stiff in between at-bats. Parking him on the bench may salvage his legs, but could be detrimental to his swing.

If he’s as team-first as he’s been throughout most of his career, even if he were on an AL team, I think it will also take a very worthy replacement at 3B for him to relinquish the spot willingly, and take up DHing. Otherwise, he’d want to be playing the field, and contributing on that end too.

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Apr 1, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

I was holding out hope more because I just wanted to be able to see him play all the time. And, if he’s playing 130 games in the field, maybe DH could get him 150 games.

I would think if he was really after 500 and/or 3000 he would be more open to the idea. That said, I dont know that those numbers would really motivate him.

Local guy on the radio down here this morning was going on about how he is NOT a HOF’er as guys like Jose Canseco have better numbers (he used homers as his argument) I wanted to jump through the radio and kill the guy.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Apr 1, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BB Abbott the anti-Scott Boras

Haaa… I love it! Anyone notice how BB Abbott operates completely opposite of Scott Baras about making deals with teams and owners? Look at the buttery words:
“The Braves should be commended for doing this deal, because it’s a market deal,” Abbott said. “I can’t say enough about John and Frank, because they stayed 100 percent committed to their word, and that was to ensure he would have a chance to retire here.” Sounds like a great idea to me!

by justpeachy on Apr 1, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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