Matt Diaz: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
This player preview was co-written by myself and Corey Crocker, who posts here as palioc33.
At the beginning of the offseason Frank Wren said the Braves were looking for two starting pitchers and a left fielder. He more than solved the rotation spots, and took the consolation prize of Garret Anderson to "solve" the left field hole. Many people thought we were going to go with internal options for left field. We do have Matt Diaz already under a nice contract this year ($1.24 million), and many baseball people thought he could hold down the job. After all, he does hit right-handers (.288 career) just about as well as Garret Anderson does (.299), and he kills left-handers (.328) compared to Anderson (.291).
The 2008 campaign became a lost season for Matt when he crashed into the unprotected concrete wall at Miller Park and tore a ligament in his knee - he only had 3 more at bats the rest of the year. If we look at his stats from last year they don't look that good -- .244 AVG, 2 HR, and 14 RBI -- but lets also look at his two previous years with the Braves. In 2006 Diaz hit .327 with 7 HR and 32 RBI in only 297 at-bats, and in 2007 he hit .338 with 12 HR and 45 RBI (in 358 at bats).
If we take his 2007 season and project what he would do given a full season of 600 at-bats that would equate to 20 HR and 75 RBI. Of course, those two seasons were played in platoon roles in LF and some question whether he would put up similar numbers if given a full time job. If we look at the poor numbers last year when he was given a full time spot, we may have reason to say that he is a platoon player. But we shouldn't be too quick to judge little Matty Diaz. A look at his split stats from last year show that he batted .313 in April before he went into a deep slump in May, until finally hurting his knee. One poor month is simply part of the up and down of the major league season that most players go through. The reality is that no matter where Matt Diaz has played over his career he has done nothing but tear the cover off the ball.
As long as his knee is fully recovered, which all indications are that it is, Matt should get the opportunity to show us what he can do. At the very least he should be in the lineup every day there is a left-hander on the mound. With the amount of left-handed hitters in the lineup already, there's no reason to play Garret Anderson when there's a career .328 batter against lefties sitting on the bench. Diaz is the perfect platoon player, and he should be used accordingly. And someday someone might give him a chance to play everyday.
Thanks to Corey for a good start. I had to make some changes to his original writeup after we signed Garret.
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Comments
Honestly, if we’re not using slash stats, we’re not getting the full picture. Everything Diaz does is influenced by a very high BABIP. To a degree it’s sustainable because he hits a lot of line drives, but he’s not better than Garret Anderson if his batting average dips below .300.
by 17843 on Mar 3, 2009 10:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been saying this for months, but everyone ignores me.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 3, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who are you?
I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen you post here.
"OBP is not a production number, and should not be used as something he achieved."
by VictorW on Mar 3, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know how it'll affect his platooning abilities but
I saw a picture of him in s.t. and he looks like he lost a good 10-15 lbs. This probably was due to him spending so much time rehabbing and probably not able to work out to his full capacity with that tender knee.
I predict he will put up good AVG/OBP numbers but his overall power numbers will decline a bit. He will still be a hell of a bargain at <1.5M.
by RehabReject on Mar 3, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
That’s not him “losing” weight. That was him having so much time to get in great shape that he looks so thin. But he is in great shape and very toned. He should put up similar power numbers as he did in 2007.
by palioc33 on Mar 3, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BABIP.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 3, 2009 11:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
OK ... please don't tear me apart here
But I have a question. If he’s a line-drive hitter, wouldn’t his BABIP always be slightly higher than average? Or, for that matter, wouldn’t a solid hitter’s BABIP always be slightly higher than average?
From a quick google search, I found the following article: http://royalsblog.kansascity.com/?q=node/230.
I understand if you don’t have time to read it, but the author comes up w/ a fairly convincing list of hitters that seemingly defy the BABIP argument you’re making.
Some excellent line-drive hitters w/ high career averages and high career BABIPs:
1. Albert Pujols
Career batting average: .334
Career BABIP: .323
2. Ichiro
Career batting average: .330
Career BABIP: .356.
3. Todd Helton
Career batting average: .328
Career BABIP: .340
4. Vladimir Guerrero
Career batting average: .322
Career BABIP: .322.
5. Derek Jeter
Career batting average: .316
Career BABIP: .361
6. Manny Ramirez.
Career batting average: .314
Career BABIP: .344
7. Nomar Garciaparra
Career batting average: .314
Career BABIP: .316
8. Magglio Ordonez
Career batting average: .312.
Career BABIP: .320.
9. Chipper Jones.
Career batting average: .310
Career BABIP: .323
10. David Wright
Career batting average: .309
Career BABIP: .341.
Now, I’d hardly call any of those guys “fluky,” but again … I’m a mere amateur at statistical analysis. If I’m missing something completely obvious here, please feel free to fill me in. Be gentle if you can.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
by FrankyWren on Mar 3, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Difference
Those players are HOF-discussion candidates. Matt Diaz is not.
I do appreciate the research.
by jc25 on Mar 3, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn't my research ... it was the mod from the Royals blog (I think)
But how does HOF candidacy distinguish these players from Diaz? I know I’m missing something here.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
by FrankyWren on Mar 3, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
does a HR count as a ball in play?
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Mar 3, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no, it can not be fielded so it is not “in play”
by heapofoatmeal on Mar 3, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thats what i figured…but thank you
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Mar 3, 2009 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
While it’s true that LD hitters can sustain higher BABIPs, Diaz is working with BABIPs of .373 and .385 (per Fangraphs) respectively from 2006 and 2007. THOSE numbers are much higher than anyone’s above(except Jeter’s which surprises me), and we can all agree that Diaz doesn’t have the speed of an Ichiro or the general presence at the plate of anyone else mentioned.
Fangraphs also states that taking the LD% and adding .120 is the formula for expected BABIP, which in this case would translate that Diaz “should” have had a BABIP of .355 in 2006 and .328 in 2007. If you adjust his numbers with the difference in BABIP listed above you’ll see that while it doesn’t make him a terrible player, there certainly is a difference. I still think he can be a valubable addition to the team, people around here should temper their expectations.
Take it for what it’s worth.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 3, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
TY
You’re right, his BABIP is considerably higher than all-but-one of those players.
But it kind of makes me doubt the importance of BABIP in general … unless, as in Diaz’s case, a player has a ridiculously high BABIP (like .06 to .08ish above the league average).
Thanks for the response. I’m determined to understand sabermetrics better, and your reply definately helped.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
by FrankyWren on Mar 3, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t doubt the importance of BABIP just yet. Diaz posted those numbers in essentially a half season’s worth of PAs in 2006 and 2007, so it may be a product of a small-er sample size. I was hoping that in 2008 I could get a better grip on who he is as a player, but obviously that didn’t happen.
However, his BB% and BB/K could make for some scary numbers (not in a good way) if he can’t keep that BABIP up.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 3, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Get Dutton and Bendix’s BABIP estimates. You can skip the reading and d/l the spreadsheet at the end.
Basically they take an advanced BABIP method and look at speed, handedness, spray, LD, FB, GB%, and a ton of other stuff.
In 2006 Diaz outperformed the expected BABIP by 4, but in 2007 he outperformed it by a whopping 18.4 (.374 actual vs .304 predicted).
Another problem with LD% is that the scorers influence it. I remember reading this on Driveline Mechanics I think but I’m too lazy to look up the article. I think two examples were St. Louis having an unusually high % of LD’s scored (Ludwick, anyone?) and Houston having a lower % of LD’s scored.
There’s more to Diaz than BABIP. The platoon split helped him in two ways: 1. He rarely sees righties and 2. Because he didn’t hit often, his weaknesses weren’t exposed. Think Frenchy tearing it up when all he got was fastballs and then falling flat on his face when pitchers realized they didn’t need to throw strikes. I think #2 will really hurt Matty D the most because his approach is just swing away, but I hope he can produce a successful season.
"OBP is not a production number, and should not be used as something he achieved."
by VictorW on Mar 3, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff ...
Thanks! I never knew that stats could get this complicated. It’s like the sky is parting or something.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
by FrankyWren on Mar 3, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
1. He rarely sees righties
That wasn’t always the case. Cox had a seriously fucked up platoon situation going on because Diaz posted the following PAs against LH/RH pitchers back in 2006-2007:
2006
vs RH: 166 PAs
vs LH: 157 PAs
2007
vs RH: 180 PAs
vs LH: 204 PAs
In fact, Diaz actually posted a better OPS in 2006 against RH, but along with it came an insane .416 BABIP! The only way I can imagine him receiving PAs of that kind would be for Cox to start Diaz/counterpart strictly on matchups, and then sub in the other one whenever a different handed pitcher came in…and then leave the sub in for the rest of the game. Does anyone remember how Cox did it? Maybe he just platooned based on gut feeling/hot hand…I honestly can’t remember.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 3, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So this is what happens when I assume
I wonder if other platoon left-handed pitching hitters see that many righties.
His career split is pretty ugly though. .288/.325/.381 vs. righties and .328/.361/.508 vs lefties. Interestingly enough, his BABIP vs. righties is actually higher too (.357 vs .351).
"OBP is not a production number, and should not be used as something he achieved."
by VictorW on Mar 3, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really like referencing that xBABIP spreadsheet.
I'll handle u in spring training - phil413
by mattdiaz4life on Mar 3, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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