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What if the Atlanta Braves off-season had gone as planned?

Every story about the Braves I read this off-season and every preview of the Braves starts off by saying, "this is the team that lost out on Jake Peavy, then John Smoltz, then A.J. Burnett, then Rafael Furcal." It kind of makes me sick, but I guess they have to talk about something before they tell everyone that we actually ended up with three starters and improved our team greatly, but was it as good as we could have done had everything gone the way we wanted it to?

I had an idea that it would be fun to see what our team would look like if all the things we lost out on this off-season were instead successful signings or trades. We'll look at the lineup and rotation and we'll have a poll to see what everyone thinks. Here are the moves the Braves could have made in this alternate universe where everything we tried worked out:

  • The Braves acquire Jake Peavy for Yunel Escobar, Tommy Hanson, Jeff Locke, and Blaine Boyer (there may be a different mix of people, but this is pretty much who the Padres wanted)
  • The Braves re-sign John Smoltz
  • The Braves sign A.J. Burnett to a multi-year contract worth a lot of money
  • The Braves sign Rafael Furcal to play shortstop
  • The Braves sign Ken Griffey Jr. to patrol left field

Those were the only moves we made that affect our starting lineup or rotation, that means no Lowe, no Vazquez, no Kawakami, no Anderson. Here's the difference:

Real lineup Could have been lineup
Jordan Schafer 1 Rafael Furcal
Yunel Escobar 2 Kelly Johnson
Chipper Jones 3 Chipper Jones
Garret Anderson 4 Ken Griffey Jr.
Brian McCann 5 Brian McCann
Jeff Francoeur 6 Jeff Francoeur
Casey Kotchman 7 Casey Kotchman
Kelly Johnson 8 Josh Anderson
Real rotation Could have been rotation
Derek Lowe 1 Jake Peavy
Javier Vazquez 2 A.J. Burnett
Jair Jurrjens 3 John Smoltz*
Kenshin Kawakami 4 Jair Jurrjens
Tom Glavine* 5 Tom Glavine*

 

*Keep in mind that both Smoltz and Glavine would not break camp with the team, so we'd have at least one month of Jo-Jo Reyes and/or Charlie Morton and/or Jorge Campillo penciled in to these spots.

Poll
Which lineup and rotation do you prefer?
The real lineup and rotation that we have
1260 votes
The what-could-have been lineup and rotation
412 votes

1672 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs  |  Comment 64 comments |

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Comments

Display:

Awesome.

I can’t believe I didn’t think of it like this…

...catsports...

by bwellnjonesco on Mar 27, 2009 2:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

center field

Why is Janderson the center fielder in the could have been lineup while schafer is the center fielder in the actual lineup? Couldn’t it have been either one of them in either case?

by sportsball on Mar 27, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

the Padres wanted him

didn’t they?

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." -John Stewart Mill-

by justincredubil02 on Mar 27, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m skewing the numbers.

by gondeee on Mar 27, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much

The analysis would be better if it were consistent with either Schafer or Janderson in both lineups, albeit at different spots in the order.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 27, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It really doesn't matter

Schafer/Anderson isn’t a variable of the topic…

...catsports...

by bwellnjonesco on Mar 27, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right, that’s my point. It isn’t variable, yet gondee has set the two lineups differently (admittedly to skew the result).

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 27, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see what your saying

(-1) to me for, again, not taking enough time to thoroughly read the messages…

...catsports...

by bwellnjonesco on Mar 27, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was sort of tongue and cheek on my part. My assessment would probably be that the team is pushing a litter harder to start Schafer this year because there is no clear-cut leaf-off man with his skills. That wouldn’t be the case if Furcal were in the lineup and they likely wouldn’t rush Schafer or start his clock earlier than they had to. So my lineups reflect that assumption.

by gondeee on Mar 27, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

leaf-off man…

by gondeee on Mar 27, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

I see the logic behind that, although I’m not sure I agree with the reasoning.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 28, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would have loved to see furcal back at the top!!

by That a boy on Mar 27, 2009 3:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

for about 20 games

the rest would be spent on the dl

by Doghnut on Mar 27, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would argue against Hanson being in the Peavy package, since the Braves never intended on trading him. I thought the main rumored package was Esco, Gorkys, Morton/JoJo, and Locke/Boyer.

Advertise here!

by 10-4 on Mar 27, 2009 3:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought they wanted 5 players.

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." -John Stewart Mill-

by justincredubil02 on Mar 27, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I heard Haithcock was the dealbreaker.

Sorry, i couldn’t resist that.

Advertise here!

by 10-4 on Mar 27, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

Oh, Bobby.

by sdp on Mar 27, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How did you let him beat you, sdp???

...catsports...

by bwellnjonesco on Mar 27, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, you could have resisted that

and you should have.

Consider yourself shunned.

Ok, now you are unshunned.

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." -John Stewart Mill-

by justincredubil02 on Mar 27, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Horrible

Time to start my own meme

by VictorW on Mar 27, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

First Haithcock

Now this. Why the hell can’t people start memes with like . . . attractive people or something? Just because Kotsay’s not on the team anymore . . .

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Mar 27, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haha, 3rd time in one afternoon. Dude reminds me of an old roommate.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 27, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Smoltz and Glavine???

I truly believe they wouldn’t have signed Glavine if they picked up Smoltz – they didn’t want a repeat of last year. Instead, they may have still gone after Kawakami (get a foot in the door to the Japanese market).

by Joshua L on Mar 27, 2009 3:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

...but

I still like the real roster more than the theoretical one either way though.

by Joshua L on Mar 27, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

$$

Great idea. Wonder what the relative payrolls would have been.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 27, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Is there even enough money for the coulda been?

This is off the top of my head so correct me if I’m wrong:

What we have: Lowe (16M), Vazquez (11.5M), Kawakami (8M), Glavine (2M), GAnderson (2M)
$39.5M

What could have been: Peavy (11M), Burnett (16M), Smoltz (5M), Glavine (2M), Furcal (10M), Griffey (2M)
$46M

What we have is way better anyways.

by VictorW on Mar 27, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

KK

got a$2M signing bonus, but otherwise I think that’s about right. Oh, and knock $500k off of Team B because of no Yunel.

Formerly Uncle Charlie of Minor League Ball

by Yakker on Mar 27, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we had the money to spend like that, what’s a measley 2 mill for Ohman!?

by Bmacbandwagon on Mar 27, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking of doing the payroll numbers, but I didn’t want to make it that complicated. In the perfect world we may have also gotten Burnett and Smoltz and Furcal a bit cheaper, or we may have had a higher payroll. There are a lot of variables that can’t be known.

by gondeee on Mar 27, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I much prefer the deeper and more consistent starting rotation with all our prospects that we have now than the oft injured and thin rotation of Peavy and Burnett. But I do like the what-could-have-been lineup better with Furcal at the top. I am very happy with the outcome of the offseason – even though it sucked going through it.

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton

by beeniez on Mar 27, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

even though it sucked going through it.


Understatement of the year!

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." -John Stewart Mill-

by justincredubil02 on Mar 27, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

damn...evidently i suck at block quoting.

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." -John Stewart Mill-

by justincredubil02 on Mar 27, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That Garret Anderson at #4 sticks out like a sore thumb in the real lineup, though. (sorry, I’m not as versed as royhobbs on analogies so I’ll stick with the tried and true)

by soup du jour on Mar 27, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ugh…all this pro-royhobbs nonsense makes me sick

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 27, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Me too

No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.

by royhobbs on Mar 27, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does someone have moderator envy?

by gondeee on Mar 27, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you cut right to the core…

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 27, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hate that guy

He never says anything worthwhile.

"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09

by buzzdeadwax on Mar 27, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He probably thinks

he is one of the top 11…

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." -John Stewart Mill-

by justincredubil02 on Mar 27, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Psh. Royhobbs delightful. No, no, he’s is brilliant. No, no no no, there is no word to describe his perfection, so I’m forced to make one up. And I’m going to do so right now…Scrumtrulescent.

by soup du jour on Mar 27, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i thought...

it was either esccobar or hanson and the throw ins were what broke the deal apart.i dont think the Braves or Padres were ever talking about giving up both

by MIZIKE on Mar 27, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Peavy contract

I’m pretty sure Peavy has a no-trade clause and for him to OK a trade a new contract would have to be worked out, which means more dollars…

by 13thieves on Mar 27, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Man I’m glad that Peavy deal never went down.

"The crows seemed to be calling his name, thought Caw."

by WienerDog on Mar 27, 2009 4:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What Could Have Been

.
Respectfully, there are a couple of things wrong with the above scenario:

1 – The Braves acquired Vazquez (12 million per) before pursuing anyone else. So had Peavy been acquired to go with Vazquez, there wouldn’t have been $$ for Burnett.

2 – If Braves had acquired Vazquez, Peavy, and Furcal… there would not have been enough $$ left to sign either Griffey or G.Anderson.

So if everything had gone according to “Plan A”, it would have looked like this:

Peavy
Vazquez
jurrjens
Glavine/Reyes
Smoltz/Hanson

1 – Furcal 2B
2 – Johnson LF
3 – Jones 3B
4 – McCann C
5 – Francoeur RF
6 – Kotchman 1B
7 – Diaz/Jones LF
8 – Anderson/Schafer CF

I actually think we’re better off with Lowe than Peavy. I’m not denying that Peavy is a better pitcher than Lowe over the 162 reg. season games, BUT…

- Lowe is more dependable and less injury prone.

- Lowe didn’t cost us a HUGE bundle of talent, as Peavy would have.

- Peavy has only made 2 post-season starts, but he got SHELLED in each of them (and didn’t look great in the WBC either. Lowe, on the other hand, consistently excels in big games.

AJ Burnett MIGHT have been a better pickup than Lowe… but again, Lowe is far more durable and dependable.

And if we had signed Furcal, there would have been no Kawakami or G.Anderson. Are we better off with KK and Anderson than we would have been with Furcal? Time will tell.

But overall, I don’t think this would have been a significantly better team had Plan A come fruition.

by FriedBaseballATL on Mar 27, 2009 4:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Braves acquired Vazquez (12 million per) before pursuing anyone else. So had Peavy been acquired to go with Vazquez, there wouldn’t have been $$ for Burnett.

Umm…iirc, we started talking about getting Peavy in early-mid October, while the first mention of Vazquez came in early December…

by Doghnut on Mar 27, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OOPS

I screwed up the positions in my last post. In that scenario, KJ would have remained at 2B, and Furcal would have taken over SS.

by FriedBaseballATL on Mar 27, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

2008 all over again

We would probably be in the same situation this year as last season with injuries. Smoltz and Glavine would still be questionable and who knows how many games it will take for Burnett to be injured again. That would have left us with Peavy and Jurrjens. Note that we wouldn’t have the same pitching depth as we do now in the minors and it will be last year all over again.

Also..Furcal is still in question with his back, and we all know about Ken Griffey Jr’s health.

I’m happy with the team we have right now.

by WeStillHaveBobby on Mar 27, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

mike hampton

actually mike should be in that rotation since he turned down the braves

With great power comes great responsibility- Ben Parker

by longshotsmith on Mar 27, 2009 4:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

good point

so we are looking at:

1. Peavy
2. Vasquez
3. Hampton
4. Jerrjens
5. Smoltz/Glavine/Hanson

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." -John Stewart Mill-

by justincredubil02 on Mar 27, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Opening Day Viewing Party

Hey folks, just wanted to extend an open invitation for those of you in ATL…

Braves Opening Day Viewing Party – Sun. April 5th, 7:45 PM

Jocks and Jills at Galleria Mall (near junction of N 285 & I-75)

Email: kccjr1@gmail.com

by FriedBaseballATL on Mar 27, 2009 6:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

TBH, I prefer the real team OVER the "could of been"

I mean we’re talking about losing Flowers, Lillibridge and the low level minor league pitcher vs losing our starting shortstop in Yunel, plus our ace-to-be Tommy Hanson, plus a minor league pitcher with big upside, Jeff Locke and our workhorse of a reliever Blaine Boyer. The first package getting us Javier Vazquez and the second possibly, getting us Jake Peavy. I think it’s safe to say Wren and co. made the better choice in getting Javy instead, when you consider the price in terms of prospects.

As for Burnette vs Lowe (the two free agent pitchera that required only a big contract to play for your team) , you can make a strong case for either one. Pay $80+million contract over five years for a pitcher who has the better stuff of the two, but can also be very inconsistent between starts. He also is known for his health considering he rarely puts together 30+ starts in one season. The other pitcher however is 4 years older and is asking to be paid premium money until he’s almost 40 years old.

As for Griffey Jr vs G. Anderson, I think it’s silly to think one would make that much more of difference over another this season. Both are near the end of their careers and neither really fit that “big bat” mold that Wren was looking for entering the offseason.

Here’s the offseason I would of liked to see happen for the Braves (all of which was possible):
1.) Sign Lowe to a 4yr/$60 million contract (didn’t like the deal at first, but the guy has proven that he’s a workhorse who relies heavily on his sinker).
2.) Make the exact same trade for Javier Vazquez (Flowers, Lillibridge, and the minor league pitcher).
3.) Instead of signing Kenshin Kawakami AND Garrett Anderson, sign Adam Dunn (that big bat we needed) to be the (almost) everyday leftfielder.
4.) Instead of resigning Glavine (BIG mistake Wren made), use that money to resign Will Ohman, the lefty we need A LOT more right now.

by ChipperTeixeira89 on Mar 27, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

our rotation is not NEARLY as strong or deep

without KK.

"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself." -John Stewart Mill-

by justincredubil02 on Mar 28, 2009 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Could have been team

The “could have been team” is better than the current team, but that’s the most useless fact one could possibly cite. Major league baseball is a marketplace. Every team would like to sign the best players. Within the constraints of his budget, I for one believe Frank Wren did a good job of dealing with the marketplace and putting together the current team. The current team is the best Wren could manage, and it’s better than last year (which is actually a useful fact).

The thing that jumps out as you is that both the lineups for current team and the “could have been team” are too lefthanded. Opponents will cause a lot of havoc for this team with lefthanded pitching.

by Messenger on Mar 28, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

but ar rhe same time...

due to the scarcity of good LOOGYs out there and the abundance of RPH, this lineup could wreak havoc on pitchers the majority of the time – especially in late-game situations. We will force many managers to have to make difficult decisions on who to pitch against who, and like i said before, since there are so few LOOGYs out there, we could make a manager run out of options fast.

Penis

by justincredubil02 on Mar 28, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ooops...

only “Could” was supposed to be italicized…

Penis

by justincredubil02 on Mar 28, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Disagree

I disagree, and here’s why.

You are right, of course, in suggesting the Braves’ current lineup will be tough on many righties. You are also right that there aren’t many good “loogies” out there.

But here’s the problem with your point. In the NL East Division, there is a long list of solid-to-outstanding lefthanded starting pitchers, e.g., ….

Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
Jonathon Neise
Cole Hamels
Jamie Moyer
JA Happ
Andrew Miller
Scott Olsen

Last year, the Braves had the same problem, and they were dominated by good lefthanded pitching all season. The Braves won’t climb the NL East Division ladder with this lineup. They are way too lefthanded, and they still don’t have a real cleanup hitter. I think this is a vastly improved Atlanta team from a year ago, but still not built to beat the top NL East teams IMHO.

by Messenger on Mar 28, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jon Niese, JA Happ, Andrew Miller & Scott Olsen are “solid to outstanding”?

SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES

by bigjoe on Mar 28, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeeeahhhh…that was my question too…

"At least he didn’t nail the bitchy fat girl from Hell's Kitchen."
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Mar 29, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your potential lineup never could have happened.

You ask a good question. But, the problem with your potential lineup is that it was never possible. The Braves did not have enough money going into this offseason to afford all of those contracts. If the Braves had pulled off the Peavy trade, almost none of those other moves would have happened. They definitely would not have tried to sign Burnett. He was plan B. I’m personally convinced that John Smoltz wanted a better chance to play in the post-season over playing for the Braves one more year. They might have gone after Furcal, but it was obvious he was never going to sign with Atlanta. And, the same can be said about Griffey.

The moves that never happened cannot be considered as separate moves. Each potential decision was based on what happened before it. You can’t compare what is to what was never possible.

by Kulani23 on Mar 28, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

It was a very stressful offseason to say the least. I like the way to could have been roster looks. I think Furcal and Griffey would have had a bigger impact than people think but I like the current pitching rotation than the one with Peavy and Burnett. Although losing Smoltz hurts as a lifelong fan.

by Hibbleton on Mar 28, 2009 5:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hmmm...

stupidly, i blindly voted to take the could have team. than i read all the responses, and i guess ive changed my mind.

the braves really could have a sleeper this year

smurf

by angrysmurf on Mar 29, 2009 1:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

JJ

i think JJ is a bigger part of the picture than anyone is giving credit for

by bravos fan on Mar 31, 2009 1:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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