Martin Prado: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview
by gondeee on Mar 25, 2009 8:31 AM EDT
in Community Projections
7 comments
The previews continue, with this one written by Josh G., who posts here as jeg.
Martin Prado enjoyed a career year in 2008, in which he posted an .838 OPS in just over 250 PA’s. Prado proved to be a valuable player off the bench, capably filling in at 3B, 2B, and 1B, even earning a platoon spot at 2B for a period of time.
Prado’s strong play in part time duty in 08’ has led to comparisons to Yunel Escobar’s 2007 season. However, in attempting to set expectations for Prado this season, it is important to compare his 08’ numbers to his minor league track record. For his minor league career, Prado has posted a .745 OPS and while he has been improving over the course of the past two seasons, it may be unreasonable to expect Prado to maintain his 08’ level of production. A further look into Prado’s 08’ season reveals that Martin’s final statistics were largely buoyed by his fantastic August, in which he posted an 1.103 OPS in 77 PA. In August, Prado’s BABIP was an unsustainable .484, especially compared to the league average which is traditionally between .290 and .300.
Following his hot August, Prado saw more playing time in September and regressed back toward the mean. By excluding his red hot August, Prado’s numbers fall to more in line with expectations for a player with his minor league track record and humble skill set. Martin has worked diligently to improve his defense and has seen significant gains in recent years. While not possessing outstanding physical skills, Martin Prado has been a professional success largely due to his versatility and “dirt dawg” mentality.
Ability to make consistent contact and above average bat control are Prado’s greatest tools as a baseball player. He should continue to hit for a high batting average, but his overall production will likely fall below his 08’ level. While many Braves’ fans seemed eager to give Prado a look as an everyday player, his play outside of one month of his career does not seem to warrant increased playing time. Though he perhaps would be overexposed as an everyday player, Prado is a very useful Major League utility man. His versatility defensively and his ability to provide quality at bats should prove to be an asset for the Braves in the 2009 season.
Another fantastic preview from jeg, Prado reminds me a bit of a poor-man's Mark DeRosa, and sometimes I wished we had held on to DeRo.
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The amount of people who wanted to trade KJ and give Prado the starting 2B job made me want to walk into oncoming traffic.
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 25, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Where you live, it would be pointless. Bunch of douchebags stuck in traffic yapping away on cellphones, while you wait for someone to kill you but they can’t. FAIL.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Mar 25, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I said from the very beginning, Prado hasn’t proven anything yet and his numbers show that he isn’t really an everyday player. A lot of his batting average and uber-lucky BABIP was due to an increased line drive % that was way out of line with his MiLB numbers. What I was hoping is that the Braves could sell Prado as a starting middle infielder to get the OF bat they need, but I am happy he is with the Braves because he should be a very useful utility player.
by Andy Braves Fan on Mar 25, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t understand how you can say the numbers are skewed because he had a good August. That is ridiculous. To say that he would sustain those numbers would be completely unreasonable but you can’t rule out the fact that he got on a hot streak and played very well. And some of his streaky numbers may stem from the fact that his playing time was also streaky.
I like Martin Prado quite a bit. He is kind of a poor man’s Mark Derosa. He can play well at a lot of positions and has the potential to be an offensive threat.
Teams that underestimate the importance of bench players tend to fail. Our bench looks really good this year and they will have plenty of opportunities this year to show their stuff.
by Fischerking on Mar 25, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The point of that exercise is to demonstrate how his “improvement” took place in one month in which he had a .447 BABIP. BABIP is largely a factor of luck and a .447 BABIP is off the charts. When you have only 254 PA’s in a season, an absurdly hot/lucky month in which you receive 77 PA’s will skew the data away from the mean of the full body of work, particularly when that set of data is entirely an outlier value. Look me in the eye (screen?) and honestly tell me you think Prado is an .838 OPS guy. That month in which he was absurdly lucky would make it seem that he is a much better player than he has ever been and therefore the numbers are skewed in terms of representation of the quality of the player.
For the second premise, in September, Prado received increased playing time and with a BABIP returning to a normal level, at which he has spent his entire career, he returned to producing at his mean level.
"We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism,
but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism,
until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism." --Nikita Khrushchev
by jeg on Mar 25, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also...
Placido Polanco is another comp for Prado. I can see Prado developing into that type of player but I do not believe this past year was a major step toward that. Its not to say that he wont take that step but to establish that what many are pointing to as a mini breakout is largely the product of luck.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/polanpl01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pradoma01.shtml
"We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism,
but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism,
until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism." --Nikita Khrushchev
by jeg on Mar 25, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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