Braves Making the Team Meter: Week 4

by gondeee on Mar 17, 2009 8:00 AM EDT Comment 38 comments

A busy week for the MTM, there were a bunch of pitchers cut yesterday, and that tightens up the competition just a bit. The pitchers cut from last week's MTM include, Francisley Bueno, Rafael Cruz, Emiliano Fruto, Mariano Gomez, Anthony Lerew, James Parr, Juan Perez, Todd Redmond, Phil Stockman, and Luis Valdez. As for the guys remaining here is how I think the opening day roster will likely shake out, though there are a few variables. Keep in mind that the Braves won't need their fifth starter until April 19th, so that means they can carry an extra bullpen arm or an extra outfielder to weather any possible injury concern to Garret Anderson.

The rotation (4) - Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami
The bullpen (7) - Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, Manny Acosta, Blaine Boyer, Boone Logan, Buddy Carlyle

As you will read in the notes below, there are a lot of what if's. Does the team carry two LOOGY's? All of these pieces become harder to fit when you consider that before any center fielder is added to the roster, there are 12 position players who should make the team:

Catcher (2) - Brian McCann, David Ross
Starting Infield (4) - Casey Kotchman, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones
Backup / Bench (4) - Greg Norton, Matt Diaz, Omar Infante, Martin Prado
Right Field (1) - Jeff Francoeur
Left Field (1) - Garret Anderson

If we carry 11 pitchers - 4 starters, 7 relievers - then that leaves room for 2 center fielders. But then someone has to go when Glavine or the fifth starter joins the rotation on April 19th. It's a good problem to have, having too many players than positions to fill. But there are still a few more weeks of spring training and a lot can happen.

Here is the combined MTM. For last week's MTM go here for pitchers, and here for hitters.

Player, Position	Chance	Notes
Manny Acosta, RHP		He's been a rock this spring and "should" make the team, but he's got options left and may get booted for other out-of-options guys.
Jeff Bennett, RHP		Bennett ain't been good this spring, and he may be pitching himself off this team. He's got time to turn it around, but he need to hurry it up. His last outing was spotless, so that's a start.
Blaine Boyer, RHP		Boyer has also been a rock. Perhaps the Boyer we saw in 2005 will be back this year, after all it will be his second full year back from TJ, and usually that's when pitchers get their full ability back.
Jorge Campillo, RHP		He's thrown well for team Mexico, but everyone thinks he's ticketed for the Gwinnett rotation. We'll have to see if he's the first option if Tom Glavine can't go, or if Jo-Jo Reyes will be.
Buddy Carlyle, RHP		Buddy's been fantastic this spring. He could be a real asset in the bullpen this year.
Tommy Hanson, RHP		He's had a good spring, but I think he could really benefit from some triple-A time to refine his game. That could help ease his transition into the majors later this year. With the good spring that Reyes has had, the Braves may feel less pressure to rush Hanson in case of an injury.
Boone Logan, LHP		He's no Will Ohman, but he'll be solid as a LOOGY. Remember that the White Sox called him up from A-ball to the majors, and he struggled. He's worked hard since then to figure it out, perhaps we get the benefit of a young hard thrower with lots of experience who has finally come into his own.
Kris Medlen, RHP		He didn't get cut with the rest of the kids. They're starting to extend him in games, so perhaps they'll keep him in the rotation.
Charlie Morton, RHP	OFF	He still hasn't seen any action this spring. Because of that and the injury, I'm taking him off of this list as his chances of making the team out of spring training are nil.
Peter Moylan, RHP		It "looks" like he'll be ready for the opening day roster, though they still have to test him on consecutive days. I think he'll be ready.
Eric O'Flaherty, LHP		He's been a bit hittable, but he's had a good spring. If we carry two LOOGY's then he makes it.
Jo-Jo Reyes, LHP		His impressive spring leads me to believe that he'll be the first option if Tom Glavine can't go on April 19th. Unless there's an injury to another starter, Jo-Jo will head the Gwinnett rotation to start the season.
Jeff Ridgway, LHP		I'm surprised Mariano Gomez was cut before Ridgway, as Ridgway has definitely pitched himself out of a bullpen spot.
Rafael Soriano, RHP		Not one, but two good outings. Like Moylan, we need to see if Soriano can go on back to back days, and that test will come later in spring training.

Player, Position	Chance	Notes
Josh Anderson, OF		No walks this spring, and not much more with the stick. His stock is dropping precipitously. There's still time for him to turn it around, but with Schafer tearing it up, Anderson might become the odd man out, or relegated to back-up duties (where his speed is still valuable).
Gregor Blanco, OF		Some people thought that playing in the WBC would hurt Greg, but he's doing well and he's at full speed. He could really figure in the center field mix, and he becomes more valuable if Garret Anderson can't go.
Brooks Conrad, INF		He hasn't done himself any favors at the plate this spring.
Freddie Freeman, 1B	OFF	It's nice to see the Braves keeping the kids around past the first two rounds of cuts, but I doubt they'll survive the third round.
Diory Hernandez, INF		I like the spring he's had, and if anyone in the infield gets injured, he could be an important piece of this team.
Jason Heyward, OF	OFF	For those of you who think he's ready, take another look. He's hitting for a good average, but he needs to work on his strikeouts. The kid is 19, there's plenty of time.
Brandon Hicks, SS	OFF	He's hitting a little better of late. Without much depth in the minors on the left side of the infield, Hicks is a very valuable player to have in double-A.
Brandon Jones, LF		What more can he do to convince the Braves he's ready.
Martin Prado, INF	MADE TEAM	I'm taking him off the list, not because he's not doing well, but because I say he's made the team as the second backup infielder. Prado becomes much more valuable with the questionable health of Chipper Jones.
Jordan Schafer, OF		He leads the team in doubles, he leads the team in stolen bases, he leads the team in runs. Schafer is playing his way onto the opening day roster. With the absence of Blanco and the shoddy spring of Josh Anderson, the Braves are leaving the door wide open for Jordan to win the center field job. I get the feeling the Braves want to give him the job.

We'll have a lot more to talk about next week as more folks come back from the WBC.

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Comments

Jordan Schafer

I think you are dead on about his chances of making this team out of ST. It seems he has been getting the lion’s share of the work in CF of late which leads me to believe that the organization is giving him every opportunity to win this job. I like Josh Anderson and his speed brings an element to the team that they haven’t had in quite some time but it appears that Schafer also has the ability to swipe a few and wreak havoc on the base paths plus he brings increased potential for power numbes over Josh Anderson. It is looking more and more like Josh Anderson may indeed be the odd man out. If that is the case I hope that the Braves are able to work out some sort of trade so that they can get something in return because he will not pass through waivers without being claimed by someone.

by Mountngrown on Mar 17, 2009 8:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well, at least we only gave up Oscar Villareal for Anderson. Then the Millwood/Estrada trade would officially be over.

Your source for blind optimism.

by 10-4 on Mar 17, 2009 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only thing I'm still confused about.......

Why exactly did we hire Garrett Anderson? Diaz, BJones, Infante……..I think left field would have been covered.

"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews

by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Mar 17, 2009 9:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Because he’s a “professional” hitter, whatever that means. I might ask the same question about Glavine. Drop them and you have about 4mil to put towards someone useful.

by TradeAndruw on Mar 17, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by Fischerking on Mar 17, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anderson and Glavine were Wren's 'save face' signings

After the public backlash over Smoltz, and his own promises to find a left fielder to bat cleanup, Wren went out and wasted money on a couple of guys with some name value, so he can pat himself on the back and claim to have accomplished what he set out to do.

by Lennox on Mar 17, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

THIS.

Couldn’t have put this better myself. I was dreadfully afraid that Wren would sign Anderson simply because he told people he would sign a LF this offseason and that’s exactly what he ended up doing. Not the way to go about things.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 17, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lennox/SB

I understand your frustration … Glav and GA weren’t exactly the sexiest signings ever. In fact, both may very well be a complete waste of money.

But do y’all really think FW made those signings entirely to save face? In other words, do you think he willfully ignored any kind of baseball logic and did what he thought would save his job? If you do … I understand your pain. Just curious. Don’t mean any offense.

"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)

by FrankyWren on Mar 17, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No offense taken. In regards to the GA signing, I absolutely do think that he signed him simply to say that he signed someone…thus completing what he set out to do before the offseason.

Don’t get me wrong, if he signed pretty much anyone other than Anderson I wouldn’t be bitching about it.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 17, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Griffey?

Your source for blind optimism.

by 10-4 on Mar 17, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would have been okay with Griffey or Edmonds, but there’s no need to continue complaining about it I guess. I just wish the season would hurry up and start so that I can complain about the fact that GA either: 1) isn’t playing due to injury, 2) is playing really shitty

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 17, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn’t GA better than Edmonds at least?

by acie4mvp on Mar 17, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If they were being platooned, like they should be…Edmonds is a much better offensive talent. Defensively they might even out, but I’m still skeptical about the UZR that GA posted last season.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 18, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)

by FrankyWren on Mar 17, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I think it’s 75% face saving and 25% this clubs love for VETERANS over youth (and, in the case of Glavine a LEFTY TO BALANCE THE ROTATION!!!).

by Lennox on Mar 17, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"...LEFTY TO BALANCE THE ROTATION!!!"

That’s obvious sarcasm. So, you think that a balanced rotation is worthless. Do you also think a balanced diet is worthless? Imagine if you ate only cheese or only pasta—you’d be pretty unhealthy. Same with a starting rotation. Having no lefties is the same as not eating your vegetables.

"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09

by buzzdeadwax on Mar 17, 2009 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What if

you only ate vegetables?

by acie4mvp on Mar 17, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then you wouldn't have balance

You would, however, have bad gas. And maybe some diarrhea. But I’m not a doctor.

by buzzdeadwax on Mar 18, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think all things being equal you want a balanced rotation. But you also want to put the 5 best pitchers you have out there, regardless of which hand they throw it with. Now, whether Glavine can be in our top 5 pitchers is up for debate; I personally think he’s a better option than Reyes, Morton, or Campillo (not taking contracts into account), but he also likely for another injury.

Using your analogy, it would be like eating rotten vegetables…sure you’re eating vegetables, but they taste awful and they’re not very nutritious.

by soup du jour on Mar 18, 2009 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by Sparhawk on Mar 17, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what can we get

for $4M?

"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -

by justincredubil02 on Mar 17, 2009 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing that may hinder us this year is that we have the talent to win but may go with other players in order to keep players that are out of options. There are a couple of them mentioned on this list. One obvious one to me is Jordan Schafer getting passed over by J. Anderson. But this is also happening in our pitching ranks.

Why don’t we trade some of these guys that have used their options, if we can, and try to win NOW. It seems stupid to me that in order to play the system we aren’t going to be putting our best players out there every night.

by Fischerking on Mar 17, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bullpen is making me a little aroused. If only they can stay healthy…

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 17, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That statement almost makes me want them to have an occasional discomfort. If they stay healthy all year, you are going to have a big mess on your hands…

...catsports...

by bwellnjonesco on Mar 17, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"you are going to have a big mess on your hands..."

Pun INTENDED?

HAHAHA

"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -

by justincredubil02 on Mar 17, 2009 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was all for letting Schafer get some time at Triple A ball, but he is “forcing the teams hand” even more than Tommy Hanson, in my opinion. If hes ready, hes ready. And I also think Brandon Jones needs to make this team. He has proved me wrong. I know its just Spring Training, but he has done all (and more) that has been asked of him to make this team.

Im not on the Bash Garrett Anderson train everyone else is, but Tampa proved last year that you can go young and win. Even in a tough division.

by Mike Kerns on Mar 17, 2009 11:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Choo Choo

"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)

by FrankyWren on Mar 17, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about J. Anderson in CF and Schafer in LF if G. Anderson isnt doing so hot. That would be an incredible OF Defense wise

by drumzalicious on Mar 17, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's my PREFERRED roster

Rotation (if we’re going to carry just 4 to start off): Lowe, Vazquez, Jurrjens, Kawakami

Bullpen: Gonzo, Soriano, Moylan, Logan, Carlyle, Acosta, Boyer, AND Campillo

Position players: McCann, Chipper, Escobar, Kelly, Kotchman, Francoeur, Schafer, G. Anderson

Bench (5): Ross, Infante, Diaz, Prado and Norton

by ChipperTeixeira89 on Mar 17, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I’m still not sold on the Manny Acosta bandwagon. There’s reason to be concerned that the 2007 strikeouts weren’t for real, and after all, we’re talking about a guy with a career ERA of 3.17 but a FIP of 4.91 and a BABIP of .242. If you ask me, he’s due for some major correction, and he’d have to make some very significant strides in his underlying skills to paper over that.

Me, I’d rather go the two-LOOGY route, because I think Logan’s excellent stuff may enable him to be more than just a situational pitcher, a setup guy that just happens to be left-handed. Yes, I know his splits don’t bear that out, but lefties that throw heat like he does just don’t come around every day, and if the Braves can help him harness that, they might have something valuable on their hands. Even if he remains just a situational asset, I like his upside, and Eric O’Flaherty is equally deserving of a more extended look. Both are young, both have good stuff, both are left-handed; that’s a very good combination of circumstances, and I think they both deserve to make the team, especially in lieu of Manny Acosta.

I agree with your assessment of Jorge Campillo, though I think the Braves might be better to start the season with Campillo in the bullpen and Reyes as Option #1 to replace Glavine in case of emergency. Campillo’s arsenal is much better suited to the bullpen, where hitters only get to see that crazy screwball-changeup-thing once a night. That’s borne out by his splits; he performed significantly better the first time through an order (.618 OPSa 1st time through, .818 OPSa 2nd time, .878 OPSa 3rd time). When Glavine comes back (or Reyes, as the case may be), they can send Campillo back to Richmond to get stretched out to start again, should that need arise.

As for the offense, I’m loving the fact that Josh Anderson is losing ground in the CF race so quickly; I’m in the camp that would rather see Schafer go back to AAA and Blanco bring his .360 OBP to the park every day. The whole out of options problem really seems irrelevant to me…there are plenty of Josh Andersons floating around on the waiver wire.

by tgthree on Mar 17, 2009 8:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It will be a crime....

If Blanco is not the starting center fielder. He cleaned up last year, always finding a way to get on base. That’s what I like to see. The dude can play ball.

"The future is no place to place your better days." - Dave Matthews

by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Mar 18, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His BABIP was lower than what he typically posted in the minors, so he may even been in store for a slight OPS bumb.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 18, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I completely agree with your take on Morton. When I talked to him the other day, he was pretty resigned to going back to AAA.

www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Mar 17, 2009 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is David Ross really a lock to make the team?

I mean, we talk about Clint Sammons being an offensive liability, but in comparison with Brian McCann, MOST catchers are offensive liabilities. It’s not like David Ross has a career .800 OPS-he’s a career .222 hitter.

And on the flip side, Sammons is raking this spring. He needs to prove he can do that beyond the spring, but in comparison with Ross’ .130/.130/.304, Sammons looks like a monster at .412/.474/.824. No one has ever questioned Sammons’ defense-he was always said to be the best defensive catcher in the system.

Of course I understand that there’s no justifying this mini-power surge by Sammons based on his peripherals, but it’s not like David Ross is Jerrod Saltalamacchia.

by Bronn on Mar 18, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs