Garret Anderson: Atlanta Braves 2009 Player Preview

by gondeee on Mar 12, 2009 8:59 AM EDT in Community Projections Comment 40 comments

This preview was written by Shawn Coleman, who posts here as Bravesbeast1985.

This off-season has been filled with frustration and disappointment at times. Our dealings with "Furcalgate", and the missed opportunities with Abreu, Dunn, and Griffey, have left a sour taste with many a Braves fan. However, the beauty of missed opportunities in baseball, for me, just adds to the excitement I feel when the Braves actually take action to fill a need. In the case of Garrett Anderson, I feel the excitement is justified.

While speaking with MLB.com in a recent webcast previewing the Braves Season, GM Frank Wren did a great job describing Anderson as a "professional hitter" and "a bat that will extend the lineup." These are two very good descriptions of Anderson's approach at the plate. As the stats below show, while Anderson does like to swing the bat, he is disciplined and consistent in the swings he takes:

Year AB BB/PA K/AB BABIP
2006 543 1/15.03 1/5.71 .343
2007 417 1/15.44 1/7.72 .340
2008 557 1/19.02 1/7.23 .339

These numbers show that, while Anderson may not have the power he once did, his ability to make productive contact will mesh very well with the good on-base skills of the hitters at the top of the Braves lineup.

I admit that I was in the crowd that wanted to take care of many needs at once with our LF addition, as I wanted a prototypical right-handed clean-up hitter. Continuing with the message from the numbers above, while Anderson is obviously in the latter stages of his career and bats left-handed, he has shown the ability to offer middle of the order run production. Over the past three years combined, Anderson has posted these lines against the pitching he has faced:

Against LHP: .275/.309/.414
Against RHP: .293/.335/.465

These numbers show that Anderson is an asset more than a liability no matter where he bats in the lineup, and that he will produce numbers to justify his place in the middle of the lineup. Furthermore, I would feel safe in saying it is a unanimous opinion that a good middle of the order hitter must be good with runners on-base. These are the figures Anderson has generated from 2006-2008 with runners on, and for added emphasis, compared to the player we lost that made us "settle for" Garret:

      Junior    Anderson
Runners on:    .261/.359/.492 .304/.350/.477
RISP:       .239/.365/.456 .301/.359/.439
RISP w/2 Out: .214/.393/.394 .279/.349/.391

As the numbers above show, Anderson has been the better bet with the pressure high over the past three years. As a result, he should continue to be the better option to produce.

With any bat in the lineup, there comes the other side of the spectrum -- their defensive ability. Anderson does not have the range he once did, and his arm has become weaker with age, but he still does possess enough athletic prowess to make the routine and expected plays -- though I would feel safe in assuming that our starting center fielder will be shaded toward left field the majority of the time.

To repeat, General Manager Frank Wren put it best with his description of Anderson as "a bat that extends the line-up." Most of my excitement comes from the anticipation of seeing Anderson's offensive strengths gelling with the skills of our other players. With the evidence above as support, Anderson is still a difficult out to get, and his consistency no matter the situation validates he should be reliable in the middle of our order in 2009. I believe a healthy 70%-30% playing time split between Anderson and Diaz will enhance the quality of our line-up depth and production, and should allow Anderson to be reflected upon as one of the better "bargains" of this off-season in all of baseball.

Excellent preview by Shawn, I thoroughly enjoyed it as I hope you did.

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Well, done! And i hope you’re right!

Your source for blind optimism.

by 10-4 on Mar 12, 2009 9:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well written!! If Anderson can stay healthy and play 100+ ballgames than we will be getting a huge steal compared to the $$ spent and the production that you will recieve this year.

by Hanson-Ace on Mar 12, 2009 9:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

While speaking with MLB.com in a recent webcast previewing the Braves Season, GM Frank Wren did a great job describing Anderson as a “professional hitter” and “a bat that will extend the lineup.” These are two very good descriptions of Anderson’s approach at the plate.

The problem with that statement is that it’s not entirely true. He sees less pitches per plate appearance than FYF. That is not a great way to “extend the lineup”. And the BB/PA you listed above, well it’s really quite bad. He took less walks per PA last season than Juan Pierre, and is right in line with FYF once again…awful. Sure, he still has the ability to make contact, but that’s about it. He can’t get on base, and he can’t hit for power.

These numbers show that Anderson is an asset more than a liability no matter where he bats in the lineup, and that he will produce numbers to justify his place in the middle of the lineup.

Those numbers show that he posted a .800 OPS against RH. That is pretty crappy for a middle of the order hitter. Don’t get me started on his LH splits, he has no business hitting against them on a daily basis.

Junior Anderson
Runners on: .261/.359/.492 .304/.350/.477
RISP: .239/.365/.456 .301/.359/.439
RISP w/2 Out: .214/.393/.394 .279/.349/.391

As the numbers above show, Anderson has been the better bet with the pressure high over the past three years. As a result, he should continue to be the better option to produce.

In each of those instances, Junior gets on base more than Anderson and hits for more power than Anderson. Nothing more needs to be said, Anderson’s BA simply does not make up for that.

I appreciate your write up, but disagree with it 100%.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 12, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You act like there was someone better out there.

/sarcasm

"Break's over"

by VegasAces on Mar 12, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would cream over an .800 OPS from left field this year.

by KC Ryan on Mar 12, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone would have been better than Garret Anderson; including our internal options.

by BravesFan on Mar 12, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I guess it is a matter of opinion....

The runners on base averages

Griffey: .238/.372/.447

Anderson:.294/.352/,435

I agree, obviously junior gets on base more and may hit more homers, but those are only slight advantages. The much more significant difference in averages means that junior walks much more with runners on than anderson, but that anderson is more dependable to drive runs in. My preference is to have a guy who wants to swing the bat and can produce with the swings he makes when we have runners on. With our top of the order’s
on base skills, I think Anderson’s skills well more productive than Junior’s.

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

On base skills?

JAnderson has terrible OBP skills. I hope that isn’t what you were talking about.

by mburris1 on Mar 12, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

First…use the ‘reply’ button. It’s not hard.

Second…you aren’t only person on this site with the misguided notion that a middle of the order hitter needs to have a high BA. I understand that GA will get a few more singles here and there but the reality is that he’s also getting out more which is not clogging the bases and giving people behind him a chance to hit with even more men on base. Whereas KGJ is prolonging the inning…extending the lineup, if you will…and hitting for more power, thus probably driving in an equal amount of runs. This is baseball 101, people.

Allow me to give an example…last night with Jeter on first, Youkilis and Wright both get out and Dunn comes to the plate. The big jerk that he is, he doesn’t swing at a borderline pitch and clogs up the bases with another base runner via the walk. And while he’s trotting down the 1st baseline spitting in the face of the game of baseball for not being more agressive, what he’s really doing was INCREASING THE CHANCES THAT USA SCORED A RUN THAT INNING. Sure enough the next batter comes up and drives in a run. One specific instance, yes, but it’s goes right in line with what the percentages show.

Third, and maybe I should have brought this up right away…where are you getting your stats from? The “runners on” stats you quoted in the original post don’t jive with the “runners on base averages” you just posted above. Here’s what I’m seeing per BR for the past few seasons with men on base:

Garret Anderson
2008: .362/.395/.549
2007: .284/.326/.498
2006 .267/.331/.385
2005: .341/.366/.535

Ken Griffey Jr
2008: .271/.382/.529
2007: .278/.396/.482
2006: .234/.301/.465
2005: .300/.371/.545

The two seasons posted above that GA actually put up some decent slash stats were helped by BABIPs well above his career average, including one at +.370 last season. The only year where Griffey had a BABIP above his average was in 2005.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 12, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please explain

How making more outs produces more runs.

by Lennox on Mar 12, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

will be more productive

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ok....

My stat lines in my previous post were the averages of the stat lines in the post itself.

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wait a minute…in your original post did you just add up their slash stats from 2006, 2007, and 2008 and divide by three?

And in your response to my post, did you add the RISP and RISPw/2 slash stats to the Runners On slash stats?

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 12, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And to explain how making more outs produces more runs....

Sac Flys and Rbi Groundouts do score runs, and with someone who has as high a BABIP as Anderson has had the past three seasons, he can produce timely hits more than others

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anderson had a below average BABIP with men on in 2006 and 2007…where are you getting your information?

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 12, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Babip numbers

Are from his total number of hits divded by his total number of atbats minus his strikeouts for all of 2006,2007,and 2008…….the BABIP are from his total atbats, not just those with runners in scoring positions

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1. That formula is 100% incorrect.

2. Why would you quote his total BABIP, however incorrect it is, when the discussion we’re having has to do with his ability to hit with runners on base?

3. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD USE THE REPLY BUTTON

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 12, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh my god, this is painful.

SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES

by bigjoe on Mar 12, 2009 5:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Seriously…putting this on the front page when the stats are compiled completely incorrect = -1 for our fearless leader.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 12, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Smoltz's Beard

The stats I posted are completely correct in the original article, I went over the numbers three times before I sent it too gondee, There has been a mix-up in our discussion here in the comments I believe. Please forgive me on that end. In my first comment reply to your comment to my article on the front page, my Numbers are the averages of the three stat sets for Griffey and Anderson. My BABIP numbers in the article are from his total stats. I can understand that you may disagree with my opinion in the orignal article, but do get your facts straight before you question my credibility. Thanks.

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 6:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here’s what I’m seeing…adding GA’s SLG from the past three seasons looks like this:

549 + 498 + 385 / 3 = 477

That’s what you have in your original post, correct?

Now, when you run the numbers the way you’re supposed to they look like this (TB/AB for all three years added together):

95/247 + 105/211 + 129/325 = 329/693 = 475

Sure, it’s a really small difference, but it’s a difference none the less. I ran the SLG for Griffey as well and you undershot how well he actually did. Didn’t bother running the BA or OBP formulas to see how accurate they are. I realize now that I was a little harsh in my original responses (chances are if I’m curt in my responses it’s because I’m at work), but baseball is a game of numbers so don’t you think should perform the correct calculations?

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 12, 2009 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I took all these numbers from his yahoo profile page, and then did my own calcultaions…..I guess we have different ways of doing things, but if your way is the accepted way, then count me as a perfect example of you learn something new everyday. My goal with this write-up was to try something new, try at sports writing for the first time, I guess I failed miserably lol. Hopefully I can get it right next time.

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

YOUR OWN CALCULATIONS? Ugh…

I’m not busting your balls about what you wrote, originally I only said I disagreed with you. But if you want to continue with sports writing you can’t just make things up as you go.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 13, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I will clear up some up confusion

My definition of BABIP is

Hits
________

Total AB-Strike Outs

If that is wrong from what others think, then I can understand the confusion, sorry on my end for that.

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 6:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_average_on_balls_in_play

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 12, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL.....

That is the exact link I used to find out I had applied the worng formula to the title… Glad we got that taken care of, if that ruins the rest of the article for you, then so be it, I thought in the end it was a pretty good body of work

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gondee...

If you want, Just change my title of BABIP, that stat is correct the way I figured it up, I just had a mix-up in the definition of BABIP…..THANKS

by bravesbeast1985 on Mar 12, 2009 6:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Angels vs Braves

I wonder if some of Garrett Anderson’s low walk totals just are because of the Angel’s philosophy. If you look at a guy like Kotchman. He had 373 at-bats in LA last year and walked 18 times. In Atlanta he had 18 walks in 152 at-bats. He dropped from 20.72 at bats per walk, down to 8.44. Let’s hope that Anderson can do the same.

I looked up Texeria’s stats too. They remained basically the same, but the at-bats per walk did increase a little, from 5.86 to 6.03.

by dunnytwogloves on Mar 12, 2009 7:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Problem with that theory is that GA never has posted a BB% north of 6.5% in his career, whereas Kotchman had shown in 2005-2007 to have average to above average plate discipline (10.6, 8.1, 10.7). Pretty sure that with us he had around an 11 (ran the numbers last season, can’t remember off the top of my head) so I think it’s safe to say he just underpreformed in the first half of 2008.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 12, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

According to Angels fans I talked to right after the signing

Garret’s influence is exactly what they believe led to Kotchman’s walk rate plummeting last season. He started working with Kotchman last year and Kotch became more of a hacker. He comes to Atlanta, away from Anderson’s influence, and his walks go back up.

by Lennox on Mar 12, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crap...

They better keep Garrett away from Casey then!

by dunnytwogloves on Mar 12, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m concerned Garret will have an influence, not just on Kotchman, but other hitters as well. I hope not.
KJ did confirm that it was TP who changed his philosophy at the plate last year and made him hit more aggressively. I think the article was on AJC, but I can’t find it now.

by BravesFan on Mar 12, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

KJ’s gone. I read an article where he said he’s glad he got dropped in the order because he could just hack and didn’t have to worry about setting the table.

SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES

by bigjoe on Mar 12, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

super

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 13, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where's VictorW's chart?

If you didn’t see it last time, here it is. This diagram of the Dusty Baker school of hitting should be a permanent fixture on the front page of the site.

"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09

by buzzdeadwax on Mar 13, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I initially was happy/content with this signing as most have been. But after talking to a buddy of mine who scouts for MLB, I became a bit dissuaded. He’ll be lucky to play 40 games this year. The guy goes on the DL for a hangnail. (He mentioned the word lazy, too) And couldn’t throw me out trying to score from third on a lazy fly to left. The best thing about this signing is his friendship with Kotchmann, The relationship goes way back. The K-man will be much better and far more relaxed with GA in the dugout (which is where he will spend most of his time). If only he can stay healthy enough to platoon with Diaz. If we get 80 from each we may be able to get .300/15/85 out of LF. I’ll take that until Heyward is ready.

by samxrm on Mar 13, 2009 5:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree with a few posters who stated that producing more outs does not create runs. Often making more contact causes extra outs, especially when you are talking about a veteran outfielder who is not exactly swift on his feet. Making contact isn’t bad, but if you are able to have more patience and wait for pitches to drive which Griffey obviously has considering his higher OBP and higher SLG then you will see more runs cross the plate.

Honestly, we would have been fine with Brandon Jones in left as a platoon partner with Daiz. If that had not worked, then Jim Edmonds is still out there and he is a solid option for a platoon, and now that Rodriguez is hurt the Yankees would surely be more interested in Martin Prado so Swisher probably could have been had. There were too many other options besides Anderson for me to consider his signing a good move.

by Bravesologist on Mar 13, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is why I generally shy away from too many advanced stats. Don’t get me wrong, I understand them, I just have a hard time “believing” in them. I’m sure most of you know that I would have preferred Griffey over Anderson — I’m just not excited about Anderson. Of course, I wasn’t “really” all that excited about Griffey. I mean, I thought he’d be a good nostalgic signing, but any of these guys seem to just be stop-gaps until big Jason Heyward bursts on the scene next year.

by gondeee on Mar 13, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We’re not even talking about advanced stats though, it’s the basic OPS vs high BA argument here.

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 13, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brandon Jones & Matt Diaz are playing their asses off this spring (second on the team in hits, behind Infante), and they’re essentially being told that they wouldn’t be good enough, and the VETERAN BAT that got hurt his first week in half would be able to outproduce them. THAT is some serious shit.

And FYI, Schafer has more walks, more hits, and a much higher OPS than The Other Anderson. Despite missing a week.

SWAGGA LIKE BJONES, SWAGGA LIKE BJONES

by bigjoe on Mar 13, 2009 8:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs