Who is most capable of a surprise elite season?
by yondaime4 on Feb 28, 2009 4:21 PM EST
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PrintBefore I get into this, I know that an 'elite' season can be a bit ambiguous or arbitrary. But I don't really want to say breakout either because that gives the insinuation that a player will have this great season and then sustain that over the course of at least a couple of years.
Anyways, basically what I am getting at here is just about everything that could go wrong last year did and in the end, once Tex was gone the only players we had that performed in the top 3 of their positions were Chipper and McCann. (And chipper missed a ton of games again).
So my question is thus: Who currently on the Braves roster, besides Chipper and McCann, has the best chance to have a big performance spike for this season?
I am going to put my bet on Kelly Johnson. At some point or another during his professional career he has shown flashes of almost every skill a baseball player can have (outside of stellar defense) and he is running into that 27-30 range where guys have surprise monster years. I wouldn't surprise me much to see him throw out a .320/.400/.500 line here this year.
Now I'm not saying its what he will do from here on out in his career, just that players often have one or two years out of line with their typical performance (in either direction, good or bad) and I just think Johnson is primed for one. What do you guys think? Any pitchers that could explode with either a genuine breakout year or just a blip year on the radar? What about come down year? Anyone out there primed to fall off this year?
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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FYF
if and only if we are talking about improvement over the past…he cant get any worse, right?
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Feb 28, 2009 4:39 PM EST reply actions
FYF is Frenchy right?
I’ve been an active member of talking chop for over a year under a previous name (surge) which I do not have email access to anymore, thus I had to create a new account when I forgot my PW. Anyway, what does FYF stand for?
Soriano will be filthy and FINISH the year as the braves closer
Yunel will become a household name this year
15+HR
75+RBI
100 Runs
.800 OPS
.300 AVG
85+ BB
Gold Glove Consideration
even when hurt last year soriano wasnt bad. the fact that all that was wrong with him was a nerve problem i see no reason why he shouldnt be lights out. if soriano is our closer it moves gonzo into a setup role much like ohman had last year, only gonzo is better. we might have the most dominant 5-9 innings in baseball.
we could have jojo boyer acosta in the 5th and 6th
moylan in the 7th
gonzo in the 8th
soriano in the 9th
and of course if we have a bunch of lefties coming up we toss gonzo out there.
by heapofoatmeal on Mar 1, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
while it's true
i hope we dont need bp guys in the 5th and 6th too often!
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Mar 2, 2009 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
seeing boyer and acosta half as often (once each per series) would make me a happy man. i think that with less innings they can both be very good. acosta should have never seen 2 innings in the same game cause every time he did he stunk up the second inning. boyer should have seen far fewer innings as well. i think the stability of our staff and the back end of our bullpen will allow us to get them up in the pen half as often and into the game about two thirds as often as last year. if each see 40 to 40 innings instead of 70 for boyer and 56 in an injury plagued year for acosta.
one or both of these guys could very well be trade bait for a bat come july if the preform well. i think if either is in a trade in july i would consider it an elite season for them.
by heapofoatmeal on Mar 2, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Im goin with....
Kotchman. I think he is ready to take the next step. I think a line of .390 OBP, .310 AVG, 20 homers, 95 RBI along with a gold glove. Is that elite though? well its very good. Its not Chipper elite like Jones hit last year but its still damn good though. Just dont hold this against me if he makes me look like a fool though ;)
braves#1
My money is also on Kotchman. Everything is there and he is due for a breakout season.
Proof that when posting while high or intoxicated can lead to some really funny posts
by bravesrbaseball on Mar 1, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed...
I think Kotchman is due.
But then I think a lot of Braves players are due. If get a majority of them to perform to the levels we expect—well, at least a realistic level—then this year could be a good one.
-----
Braves Fan Since 1982. Go Braves!
"All opinions welcome..."
Am I the only person that thinks Kelly Johson plays like he has two left feet?
When he runs he appears to have Twinkle Toes and when he fields he appears to be running with two left feet. Plus until he remembers he pulls the ball naturaly and he stops trying to hit towering center field home runs, he will never break out to his potential. On the flipside he is better than Marcus Giles ever was.
Proof that when posting while high or intoxicated can lead to some really funny posts
by bravesrbaseball on Mar 1, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
Can I say Chipper?
25 Hrs, 130 RBI, .402 avg…
Man, I wish!
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Feb 28, 2009 7:15 PM EST reply actions
Javier Vasquez
His stuff is top notch, all he needs to do is pull it together.
by BraveBronco0121 on Feb 28, 2009 9:13 PM EST reply actions
I'm coming in late on here
but JV would have been my pick too. Lots of little things about him are starting to add up for me, I’m looking for a helluva season from him.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
I’m going with Javy too.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 3, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
I believe that Moylan and Vasquez will be the breakout elite players this year. Soriano is to injury prone to be the closer and Johnson hopefully improves but I fear that he is never going to be elite. Vasquez has won in the National League before and will a team not near as good as the one he is one. PLUS, let us not forgot that when we get Moylan back Boyer’s apperances will be cut and his ERA will so it. SO I guess Boyer could be huge for us as well this Season.
My picks-
MOYLAN, VASQUEZ, BOYER – 09 ELite Players
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Feb 28, 2009 10:17 PM EST reply actions
soriano’s injury was a nerve problem from a previous surgery. that does not make him injury prone. he has had one arm surgery due to injury. the other times on the dl were from being hit in the head with a ball off vlad gurrerro’s bat and from a pinched nerve in his elbow that made it hurt if he threw.
by heapofoatmeal on Mar 1, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
you know the more I look at Vazquez the more impressed I am with him. Here is a guy who goes out and throws 200 innings every year and who can also strike some guys out, which are two things that we need! He just for some reason is too hittable, which i guess has always been the story. Lets pray it has been a comfort thing with him and atlanta will be like a nice new Lay Z Boy
Jair Jurrjens
All of our off-season pick-ups have caused us to forget about one of our best players last year, JJ. I expect a huge year out of him. 17-7, 3.01ERA, 192Ks, 208IP.
SubParr
I highly doubt he reaches the 200 inning mark..
…not to mention no need to go that far with him. You’ve got Lowe and Vasquez to really chew the innings. No need to push it with JJ.
Jurrjens isn’t a 192’K type pitcher. He could possibly get the other numbers but I expect a small step back from him this year. 180 IP 3.90 ERA
"Fools rush in where fools have been before"
by jeg on Mar 2, 2009 2:02 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think Kelly will do it. He’s too streaky to keep it up over the course of a season. I’m going to go with a big darkhorse, I’ll say Garret Anderson thrives in a new league. And my conservative pick will be Yunel, I think he really steps things up.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
Vazquez will have a better season than last year
His BABiP was uncharacteristically bad last season, and he’s moving to the NL, but that doesn’t mean an “elite” season or anything. He’ll probably have an ERA in the upper 3’s with just over 200 K’s. That’s PLENTY of production out of our #2, if you ask me.
JJ will get better, but his best years are still ahead of him. He’s only 22.
My money would be on Yunel and/or KJ to have breakout seasons. Both guys have the talent and flashes of brilliance, but have trouble keeping it consistent. I think both guys will find some of that consistency this year.
Yunel: .300/.360/.450, 15 HR with a Gold Glove
KJ: .290/.375/.500, 20 HR, 15 SB, and he’ll settle into solid 2B defense
…not unreasonable goals, if you ask me.
For pitching I’m gonna say Gonzo. Having him for a full year will be great for us. I’m gonna say 30-35 saves. For hitting it’s a toss up between Kelly Johnson & Yunel Escobar. I believe both are gonna break out soon. Maybe 15/80 for Escobar with a 290 avg. I can see KJ with a 20/90 season and a 285/290 avg.
Call me crazy but im gonna go with Josh Anderson.
Now i might be 100% wrong with this in 2 months when they drop Anderson for Shafer, but if Anderson is our starting CF all year, i think a .280-.290 avg, .375obp, with 40 steals, 10 triples, 10 hr and 30 doubles is not out of the question.
I know he won’t be an all-star, but i think he could be a Jose Reyes type player for us (meaning when he gets on base, he causes hell for the other team).
TH-JH-FF-JS- THE FUTURE.
Someone must really like Josh Anderson
He’s hit 12 HRs (majors and minors combined) in the last 3 years and the only way he’s OBPing .375 is if his BA is at least .325.
"OBP is not a production number, and should not be used as something he achieved."
Don't think you're crazy
but I do think you’ve got a better chance at hitting the lottery than JA OBPing above .340 this year. I can see the average being in the .270 to .290 range, but the rest of your stats need to be cut by at least half and that’s if he has an exceptional year and ends up with somewhere around 600 PA’s.
"Debated ya right not one person agreed with me" by ATLsportsfrk on Dec 27, 2008 6:31 PM EST
O'Flaherty
His Irish surname will frighten hitters into submission.
"He's getting better, but he's not there yet ..."
- Bobby Cox (talking about Boyer)
by FrankyWren on Mar 1, 2009 5:42 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
In the minors im goin with Cole Rohrbough. I think him or Locke will have a monster season this year. I view Rohrbough as the righty version of Hanson. Remember in 2008 Rohrbough and Locke were ranked higher than Hanson by baseball america and other prospect sites. If Rohrbough can stay healthy i see him blowin through High A and puttin up numbers like Hanson did in AA last year.
braves#1
I think Gondeee could have a huge breakout season seeing his P/24 (post per 24 hours) rise dramatically and at the same time lowering his T/P (trolls per post) ratio down under the mythical 1.00 line. This would obviously put him amongst the top 200-300 braves bloggers on the internet.
by yondaime4 on Mar 1, 2009 9:06 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
and the slap in the face award goes to..
yondaime4 for insinuating there are 300 braves bloggers that are currently better than gondeee
im not sure why we all bother to come here if that’s true…
I dunno, just haven’t seen FYF showing any improvement over the last two seasons. So I just never expect anything from him anymore.
Haha…uncalled for, and I love it.
I'm not not licking toads...
by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 3, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
darkhorse...
the obvious choice is my man Escobar, or even one of the new guns in the rotation. but my pick for an elite season is… Tommy Hanson. I dont think he will start the year in the rotation, even if he does have an electric rest of spring. but when he does come up at whatever point that may be I can see him having a lights out performance that is worthy of his consideration of a surprise elite season.
not if he has the same
command and control as his first ST game.
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Mar 2, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
so
are you just assuming that the guy is never going to get better than his first ST game? because I expect him to progressively pitch better as his career furthers, not peak at his first ever spring training game
Not at all
that is why I used the conditional word “IF”. I never assumed anything, nor did I say that I was going to give up on him. I said that IF he doesn’t improve his command and control, he won’t be pitching an elite season with the MLB club.
"Success is not final. Failure is not fatal. It is the courage to continue that counts." - Sir Winston Churchill -
by justincredubil02 on Mar 4, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
he missed low, the strike zone looked small to me as well. i think he will have a joba like ascension in mid july if we are in the race, if not he will be a september call up. i expect him to be very good very soon.
by heapofoatmeal on Mar 2, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
Most pitchers don't come out guns blazing
Even Tim Lincecum had a 4.00 ERA his rookie year before he really got settled in and became a monster. I’d expect something more along those lines for Hanson when he comes up. I know he’s a helluva pitcher, but he’s gonna have to make adjustments to pitch to guys like God Himself, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard (Hanson isn’t a lefty, so the guy’s no slouch), etc. He’ll find his groove, but that doesn’t usually happen until season 2. Not everyone is Doc Gooden.
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