Projections for Jeff Francoeur (FYF)

70 runs, 25 doubles, 15 GIDP, 62 balls played off wall while playing RF, 15,000 autographs signed, 5 triples, 1 bunt, 0 IBB.

I’ll make a not-so-bold prediction and say that he will not be in ATL next year

I personally think that he is to hard to predict. He can go from having to good seasons in 2006 and 2007 and then have one terrible season in 2008. He could just as easily have a good season in 2009 or have another bad season. I don’t think he will be as bad as last year but there are about a thousand different ways his season could go.

I’m with rebab I think that even if he does have somewhat of a bounce back year I still think we should trade him. By his 3rd year of arbitration his salary is going to be around $10 million and I really don’t think that he will ever be worth that.

You act as if Frenchy’s previous seasons were incredibly productive. His 1/2 season in 2005 was, but 2006 his 29 HRs were pretty well offset by his .293 OBP, notably only a .001 difference from this year. That is an OPS+ of 86, well below average.

His “great” 2007 season wasn’t really all that great either. He was really only just barely above average with an OPS+ of 103.

I think the problem is that we all over-value the guy. He has been at best average, and at worst HORRIBLE.

That said, my prediction for this season: .260/.320/.425. that is a .745 OPS. I’ll guess 20 HR’s. I’ll also venture to guess 100+ strikeouts. IE, he will be just below average, however many Braves fans and the Braves FO will once again label him a superstar and face of the franchise. He is not a superstar, and he shouldn’t be the face of the franchise.

CHONE has him projected for .276/.324/.445. Oddly enough, that’s one of the most optimistic projection available (CHONE is usually a bit more pessimistic than Marcels or BillJames). PECOTA sees a .275/.328/.444 line, damn near the same thing as CHONE. The issue is that even if he hits his 75th percentile PECOTA projection, that’s a mere .285/.338/.483 line.

One thing that jumps out about Francoeur’s plate discipline numbers from Fangraphs is that he swung at just as many pitches out of the zone in 2008 as he had in previous years but fewer pitches in the zone. In short, he took more pitches, but he was taking pitches he should have swung at and flailing at things he probably couldn’t hit. That being said, his contact numbers were up slightly and his LD% was up – that .230something average was quite unlucky. Still, though, his batted ball and contact data do not look like that of a .300 hitter at all. That’s a big problem when you don’t take walks.

The most troubling thing is the plunging HR/FB rate. From 2005 to 2008, he had HR/FB of 17, 15, 10% and 6.5%. That’s not the way you want the trendline going.

Furthermore, Francoeur’s range has been dropping off. He scored out, according to UZR, as having +6.2 range in his rookie year. That’s down to -7 as of 2008. His arm, once the envy of outfielders everywhere, looked merely good last year.

Overall, I don’t know what to make of this guy. His power and fielding are showing rather disturbing downward trends and he’s still as hacktastic as ever. I for one think that the projection models are too optimistic – .265/.310/.430 seems right to me. His defense should rebound to slightly above average, but again, this is FYF.

If I were Bobby, I would give him one month before moving Anderson over to right field and giving Diaz and Blanco left.