What happened to getting a WS for Cox?
by HansonTheGod on Dec 25, 2009 5:08 PM EST
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PrintI do not know if I'm alone when i say that my faith in Frank Wren has definitely been shaken this offseason. As we all know Cox is leaving next year. Our hopes are for a world series for his last season. Does anyone see us getting that far if the season started today? Certainly we'd be in contention but...
-the Mets are always a threat and who knows who they will be able to pick up(correct me if I'm wrong but im pretty sure they're in the top 5 financially)
-the Nats, people seem to forget, had an incredible offensive explosion at parts of the year and they're filling their needs in their only pitfall last year, that being pitching.
-the Marlins seem to be the least threatening(or Nats) and thats saying a lot with Chris Coghlan, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, and (sometimes) Nolasco.
Yes, We have been extremely busy in the market but we're tagging, as Harold Reynolds put it, "a lot of what-ifs". What if Saito and Wagner aren't too old, What if Glaus can come off this injury at 100%, what if Cabrera can come out of one of the best hitting parks with sub par results there and come to a pitcher's park and be succesful, What if Heyward will be another Hanson?
Meanwhile we traded our Ace, only a week or so after the alternative (Lowe) publicly said some pretty questionable comments about the Braves organization, for Melky, Dunn, and a highly regarded prospect. Although Vizcaino is a big part of that trade it does not effect our 2010 push for the playoffs.
All this being said I have only two questions
1.) Is Wren done this offseason, at least for the most part?
2.) Will all these 1-yr acquisitions really answer our prayers for getting to the WS, or even clinching the division/wildcard?
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Even if nothing else is done, tell me why this team right now isn’t better than the one that started 2009.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Exactly. People seem to forget how much better this team is from the one that began the 09 season. A full season without frenchy and kotchman will greatly help this team
by blitzerlover on Dec 25, 2009 5:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think they're forgetting
I think the majority of these “doom and gloom” posters set false expectations of trading for Pujols or signing Holiday/Bay to begin with. The fact is we were NEVER going to get a bat like that but unfortunately fans will be fans and all of us want our teams to be the best! It’s just that some of us have more realistic ideals.
You aren’t the czar of typographic emphasis
But,
We lost our best pitcher from last year. That is why people think we are worse off. And really that is a valid point I think.
...because a player who plays in less than 20% of the team's games is what the season hinges on?
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 26, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, it certainly can
Because 20% of a team’s games are 32 games, and starting pitchers are very important to the games that they play in. 32 games is the difference between an awesome 102 wins and a horrible 70 wins.
Someone has done this math before, but starting pitchers in a five man rotation are nearly as valuable (like 5% less) than every position players. Here’s the quick, messy math:
A starting pitcher who plays in about 20% of his team’s games gets 32 starts. If he faces about 20 batters per game (arbitrary number, but very reasonable), then that’s 640 plate appearances he’s involved in. For comparison, Brian McCann is a HUGE piece of the puzzle, and he’s yet to reach 600 PAs in a season. Chipper hasn’t reached 640 since 2003.
This argument is always interesting to me, because I certainly value starting pitching, I think it’s the basis of baseball, and I get the sheer math, we’re looking at the number of chances a player has over the course of a season to affect his team’s chances of winning a game, but what that math ignores is that an everyday player gets to take those chances everyday. Like you said, the number of opportunities are similar, perhaps even in the favor of the pitchers in some cases, but they only get to take them 30 times, while the hitters get 150 shots at it.
I’m not trying to diminish the importance of a starting pitcher, or even create an argument about this line of thinking, I think it’s a valid way of looking at things, I’m just point out this counterargument, one that I personally think makes hitters more valuable, if only because they have an opportunity to impact more games, if not more at bats.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Different measures though...
hitters impact more games
starting pitching have a significantly greater impact on the games they play
if it was just a measure of the number of games they impact, then relievers would dwarf starters. Some relievers rack up twice, if not three times as many games played, and “impact” more games, but the impact starters have on each game they participate in tends to dwarf any other player in that game besides the opposing starter.
I’m trying to figure out the math, but say a starting pitcher gets to impact 75% of the game for 33 games, 20% of the season, and a hitter gets to impact 11% of the game for 150 games, 93% of the season. We’re going with the assumption that a starting pitcher and a hitter impact roughly the same number of at bats, so the question become how they impact them. Obviously a starter gets to do more for the games he’s in, but a hitter gets a chance, much smaller, to impact the vast majority of the season.
The reason why we know a relief pitcher isn’t more or as valuable is because they don’t get to impact the same number of at bats in a season as a hitter or a starting pitcher. The whole reason to bring in the games argument is because those other two are working on a level playing field and the question over which is more valuable, impacting more in one game or impacting more games. It’s arguable and based on preference really.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Also worth consideration in this argument is how many at-bats a “hitter” impacts while playing defense as well. You can’t make the complete argument without considering all facets of the game.
Pitchers field too. Unless you’re giving bonus points for homerun-robs, that aspect should be a push.
True, but I think Mountgrown’s point might be that hitters field more than pitchers. It would be interesting to see how you could factor in the number of fielding chances and success with those chances, for both hitters and pitchers, into all of this.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
JJ, Hanson= Future
With another season like 2009 in 2010, Javy would’ve been gone after this coming year anyway.
He's pretty good in 'The Show'....
by lemke2blauser2bream on Dec 28, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
With another season like 2009 in 2010, Javy would’ve been gone after this coming year anyway.
completely inconsequential to the 2010 season… besides the fact that a good season from JV> a good season from KK (or even Lowe)…
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Is this franchise folding after the season?
Last I checked, they expect to keep operating. Or do you know something we don’t?
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
by MichaelProcton on Dec 29, 2009 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
What happened to getting a WS for Cox?
that would be the title of the post… so if thats what the post is aboutthen we shouldnt be looking ahead to 2011.
i can look to 2011 cause i could give a shit if we win a WS for Bobby, if our best chance is in 2011 then fine, if not then w/e… but he’s essentially approving the Vazquez trade bc he might leave in the future (and using that as an argument for god’s knows what)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Sorry, but depleting our excellent foundation of young players in favor of a WS for Cox or Bust approach, it is not smart and is not going to happen. Reality rules regardless of the title of the post.
i said i dont care about winning a WS for Cox… i want a strong franchise for years to come so i dont know what ur saying
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
and you also said, replying to l2b2b, that his comment was “completely inconsequential to the 2010 season”, and replying to mp, apparently for purposes of this thread only that “we shouldnt be looking ahead to 2011.”
so, you seem to be contradicting yourself coming and going. or then again perhaps I’m a morane and thus easily confused.
i just meant that after this upcoming season hes a FA right?….if he had back to back career seasons going into FA….then i doubt he would resign in the ATL….
or am i totally wrong on that?…i wouldn’t doubt it if i was..
He's pretty good in 'The Show'....
by lemke2blauser2bream on Jan 2, 2010 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
No, you're right...
Javy putting together a year this year similar to last year would have made him too expensive for us.
This team is definitely better than the team that started in 2009. I’m just not so sure this team is better than the one we had on the field in September.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 25, 2009 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
So who's to say we can't improve this team between March and September of NEXT year?
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 26, 2009 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
Well, given how well we did in the second half of last year...
…It is hard to say that we need to be better than we were at the end of last year.
Something like 50-32 after the Francoeur trade, right?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 26, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
It really doesn’t matter if this team is better than the March 09 team. It matters if it is better than the 2010 Phillies and 2010 Mets. Everything else is irrelevant.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Very True.
Although, I don’t think we need to worry about the 2010 Mets too much.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 27, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
They have 5goodplayersAll-Stars.
FTFY
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Are All Stars not good players?...
Point remains the same, it’s Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana, KRod, and 20 overpaid scrubs, if not more considering the chance one of those 5 goes on the DL.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 28, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
how can u play the injury card against the Mets… our bullpen is full of injury concerns… and we have Chipper and Glaus…
Santana has no real injury concerns, and either does KRod)… so they have Wright, Beltran and Reyes who are all more adverse to injury based on age and have higher ceilings (combined) than Glaus and Chipper.
Let me make it clear the Braves are better than the Mets, but it has nothing to do wiht their 5 players and their potential injuries… it has to do with the fact our SP is very strong and we have pretty good depth, and versatility in our lineup.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Which injury concerns are those in our bullpen?
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
by MichaelProcton on Dec 29, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
they’re minor, but Moylan, Proctor, Saito, Wagner all come with susbtantial injury risk. Moylan is one year removed from TJ and threw a crapton of innings. Saito apparently has a slight tear in his elbow, Proctor was abused by Torre for years and hasnt pitched in a 1 1/2 (which also means he’s fresh). and Wagner is like 6months removed from coming off TJ surgery.
I would consider those injury risks (and i did cherry pick by using Proctor, as he’s not really being relied upon right now). I realize all bullpens have injury risk, but with our combination of age and recent surgeries it cant be overlooked.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
I wouldn't think Moylan or Wagner would be any more risky than most any vet RP.
Advance apologies if the contents of this sports-based post offended you. I'm just aiming to educate the masses. My law professor says they're asses.
by MichaelProcton on Dec 29, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
While I agree...
we haven’t seen them play. The 09 team looked pretty good too, on paper and with the natural preseason/we haven’t lost yet optimism.
We’ve got a pretty good idea of what our team looks like, how about others?
The Mets have a decent core if they can get healthy. Saw some MLB talk on them, and Harold Reynolds made a good point calling on Delgado, Wright, Reyes, and Beltran with 160+ games a piece the year before, combining for under 300 last year. And the one who did play, Wright, completely fell off a cliff with his power. Get those 3 (since you assume Delgado is gone), back healthy and hitting in the top half of that order, and the Mets are not the same. They always choke, but that’s 3 elite players when healthy.
The Phils we know are stacked if they can a) stay healthy as is the case everywhere, b) find pitching for the back of the rotation and bullpen.
How do the Marlins and Nats look, and the Mets too? A combination of curiosity and laziness if you will.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
OK, so I quit being lazy...
Phillies, look good of course. C is the lone weak spot in the position players and he’s not that weak. P has the Triple H (Halladay, Hamels, Happ), but depth behind them, and in the bullpen seems the big question mark.
Mets are dependent on Santana, Reyes, Wright and Beltran getting healthy. After their highly paid stars though (those 4 + KRod), they seem to be mostly highly paid scrubs. 1B, corner OF, starting and relieving, they need a lot of help and some good health.
Nationals look to have some good young talent, but not quite there yet. Where do you put Dunn defensively, Zimmerman is a cornerstone at 3rd but who else is in the IF, between Morgan, Dukes, and Willingham, do they have single fixture in the OF? Some good young Ps, but the Nats look a couple years away at best.
Marlins lots of great pitching, but outside of Ramirez and a solid pack of Cs, the rest of their positions seem like question marks. Even the other two solid looking pieces Coghlan (position) and Uggla (trade) are suspect.
Other than Philadelphia, we look like the best lineup in the East (on paper at XMas), and perhaps the Marlins but probably not even them, the best pitching staff (again, on paper at Xmas).
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
The Nats are horrible, Marquis and Guardado don’t change that.
Here are Pujols's stats: 1.000/1.000/4.000/5.000. That's right. He is batting a thousand, with a thousand OBP (naturally), and every hit has been a home run, and thus his OPS is a perfect 5.000.
They might even enhance that fact a bit…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 25, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
Not seeing that
I mean, adding Guardado on a minor league deal for almost no money can’t be a bad deal for a team with no pitching. If he’s horrible, they can just cut him since they’ve invested nearly nothing in him. If he’s good, and he does have a track record of success (as recently as two years ago, even), then they get a bonus. Their bullpen was disgustingly awful last year, but only teams that figure to be competitive need to pay market value for bullpen arms.
And Jason Marquis seems to get a bad rap. He’s been an average to above average pitcher in the league for several years, and for a team that had good offense and terrible pitching last year, he certainly won’t hurt.
While I agree that neither of these movies makes them better, it certainly doesn’t make them worse. And if MArquis is part of a rotation that includes a healthy Zimmerman, Martis, and perhaps later Strasburg, Washington could field a fairly solid team this year. A long shot, but not beyond the realm of possibility.
Sadly Zimmermann went down with TJ, and he’ll miss most if not all of this coming season. I had high hopes for him in my fantasy league too, dammit…
True...
…but we don’t have to worry about this. Bronn talked about neither of the “movies” making the Nats better, so clearly we are in the realm of fiction here. Hence, Zimmermann (Jordan has two n’s, Ryan has one) can be healthy at the start of the season here. It makes the movie better. ;)
I would give us an outside chance to win the division, and a good chance to win the Wild Card.The Phils offense will be more consistant than ours will, so I think they have the advantage in the regular season. If we make the playoffs, I don’t see why we couldn’t make a run.
Barring a prolonged injury, I think our pitching will be just as good as last year. The back end of our bull pen should be more constant with Wagner, Saito, and a healthy Moylan. I expect Lowe to have a better season, Huddy to be the strongest we have seen him in Atlanta, Hanson to continue to improve, and hopefully more of the same from JJ.
Its easy when it comes to our lineup. Our first two guys, whoever they may be, have to get on base, and protection out of Glaus. If those two things happen, we will win a lot of games. If Glaus can hit .270, and play 140 games, I would bet money he will have 30 plus home runs, and 100 plus rbis.
As far as moves are concerned, I think one year deals are all thats left, no more than a two year deal. Dye, Nady, and Damon are the three I would think may be added. I think all three could play left field, and a game here and there at 1st if needed. Im not convinced that Diaz can hit righties consistantly, so I expect a platoon role somewhere in the outfield to start the season. Once Heyward is up for good, I can see Dye/Nady/Damon in left full time, with Diaz spelling all three outfileds giving him plent of at bats. If Diaz hits righties to start the season, I wonder if they hold Heyward down a little longer.
He would be a great fit in our lineup, but does anyone know if Vlad can still play 120 games in the outfield? I would think he would be a wildcard guy, but I don’t know if he can still play.
FW
is making sure that the future is ready to go in 11’ and not blocking Heyward/Freeman so I Imagine unless they give a Derosa type gives a hometown discount of a 2/8 which I offer in heart beat for what he gives in flexibility in so many positions I would rather push are for Nady if he has a good bill of health otherwise Dye/Damon would be other options that would a bit more expensive. I would hope FW brings someone that plays OF/1B as insurance for Glaus if he may take some retreat on the DL for any period of time during the season…
Whats wrong with Damon? He may be the Abreu of last year, having him swallow a one year 6 mil deal would be a bargin. He could lead off or hit second.
Not going to happend
Remember he was the one that said he would not play for less than $13mil a year. He will never get that much but no chance he plays for $6mil. He will rather not play at all I bet.
We will have to see but Im not sure I agree. The Yankees were the only team the Braves could find that was going to pay 10 mil for a pitcher at the time we traded Vazquez. If there were no teams willing to take on a contract for a Cy Young candidate, whos going to pay Damon that much money. He might make 10 mil this year but I highly doubt it. If the RedSox and Yankees are out on him, who’s going to shell that kind of cash. Cubs maybe, Mets prob not, they need a bat and pitching. Abreu was a better player last year than Damon was this year.
Yeah who wants a guy that can put up an .800+OPS, steal bases, and play good defense in the corners?
by McCann's the Man on Dec 25, 2009 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know.
Damon isn’t that guy—-his arm has deteriorated that he can’t play good defense anywhere, at least per UZR. But hey, when we find that guy, I want him!!!
Name?...
Cause I haven’t heard of such a guy available.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
I'll give you two out of three
but if you can get two, Damon’s arm will get you the third.
I mix your Melk with my cocoa puffs, Melky Melky cocoa puffs.
by VivaLosBravos on Dec 28, 2009 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
As Gondee posted an article a couple days ago. We are no longer a major market team, what did you want Wren to do?
by McCann and McWill on Dec 25, 2009 11:30 PM EST reply actions
I mean
Last yr our opening roster had
Kotchman 1B
Schafer CF
FYF RF
Garrett Anderson LF
Kelly Johnson 2B
thats five players that have been upgraded over. You can at this time call melky and FYF a wash. However:
McLouth > Schafer last year
Diaz > Anderson
Prado > KJ. (at least in his almost season long slump)
Glaus>Kotchman
we have gotten better at the minimum 4 positions. You could also argue our bullpen will be better/stronger. Going into last year we had the same questions with our BP. What if Soriano is healthy, what is Gonzo stays healthy, what if Moylan comes back healthy etc.
As far as the rotation. Javy was never intended to be our ace last year and i dont believe we will see a pitcher in our rotation put up a similar year as he did last year but i wouldnt be surprised to see our rotation as a whole improve. Hudson coming back stronger, a full year of Hanson and hopefully improvement from Derek Lowe. Kawakami put up a fine year and we should see some improvement from him as well.
I think a lot of people n eed to calm the freak down and realize that a lot of the players some ppl want would hamper us more than help (DeRosa, Bay, Holliday, Delgado etc.)
Good points. I guess i just fell into the expectation of going out with a bang but ever since Turner left, we can’t compete in the offseason like we used to. I loved the signs don’t get me wrong… I’m a big fan of Wagner and I remember Glaus in his prime, I guess i was just expecting more. But i shouldn’t. Whether we have big name players or not the Braves are my team and whether we’re good or not next year, I cannot wait for next season to start.
by HansonTheGod on Dec 26, 2009 1:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Aww...
good for you. Nice turnabout.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 27, 2009 1:17 AM EST up reply actions
Again, in preseason optimism, we've upgraded....
McLouth is likely better than Schafer due to the injury. But otherwise, he might not be that much of a positive. Melky vs. French, Prado or KJ, Glaus or Kotchman (does Glaus get hurt and never do a thing?), we can’t answer these questions until we actually play games.
Right now, we certainly look to be improved over opening day last year, but that’s just speculation until the season gets underway.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think one of the biggest parts of this...
Is that we’re going to be able to replace the starts of our worst SP (whether you think that’s Kawakami, or Lowe, or Hudson, or Hanson, or whoever) with the dreck we were running out there in the #5 slot at the beginning of last year (Reyes, Parr, Medlen.)
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 27, 2009 1:17 AM EST up reply actions
that was about
10ish starts? The way hanson was pitching that could be around 6 more wins.
by drumzalicious on Dec 28, 2009 5:34 AM EST up reply actions
Is it so crazy?
To go with 1-year deals, build around your home-grown core and use free agents to complement that, not vice versa? Seriously, is that so crazy?
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
its different… unfortunately… its not best for the players to accept 1 year deals so u rarely see it happen…
but its certainly not crazy… but you are setting urself up for a major downfall if you havnt diversified ur risk with enough high upside plays to absorb some of the inevitable total losses you take (i.e. Saito being a total 3M loss, by blowing his arm to shreds by May1st…. not saying its gonna happen just giving an example to accommodate my lack of explanation)
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
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