Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Poll
by gondeee on Dec 24, 2009 8:06 AM EST
144 comments
Every other Friday this off-season Talking Chop presents the Atlanta Braves fan confidence poll. This poll and therefore your confidence level should encompasses several areas of the team. These areas include, but are not limited to, the team’s ownership, current management, talent, minor-league system, general playing ability on the field, and of course during the off-season, how our off-season is going. The poll will stay open for 48 hours, and then the results will be posted and graphed against the previous weeks. To get ahead of the Christmas holiday, I'm posting the FCP a day early and leaving it open for an extra 24 hours, though Sunday.
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Troy Glaus makes me vote an 8 for the first time this off-season. This and the fact that so many people are saying we got a better haul in our Vazquez trade than the Phillies got in their Cliff Lee trade.
Vasquez was older, more expensive, and without the Cy Young/big playoff performance
how in the hell did we get more than the Phillies did for Lee?
And not only the moves made, but the size of the Glaus deal (just think, Garrett Atkins got more than twice Glaus guaranteed—$2m+ vs. Atkins’ $4.5m, with $500,000 in incentives and an option/buyout for next year of another $500k or $8.5m). Wren has a lot of flexibility to either stand pat, sign an under valued, under appreciated veteran as it gets close to spring training, or make a trade.
Me too, 7 to an 8 for the first time in…maybe ever. Getting a legitimate bat to hit between Chipper and Heap is huge.
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This, voted 8 for the first time ever!
" If you're going to be accused of something, being accused of being a nice guy is not the worst thing to be accused of."
Mark Richt (November 3, 2009)
I’ve hated the moves the last few weeks. The Kelly Johnson non-tender, the whole Soriano mess, the Vazquez trade, signing Glaus as our “run-producing bat”, I’m very unimpressed. I would have voted something around a 4, but the Kelly Johnson deal pissed me off so I dropped it down to a 1.
Before I get jumped on over Glaus, I like the signing for the amount it cost us. Low risk, high reward possibility and all that. I just don’t think we can count on him to be in the 4 hole every day due to the injury concerns, so we still really need a big bat, and I don’t see who that’s going to be right now.
Shouldn't Reid Gorecki get a shot in RF before that Heyward kid everybody talks about?
I don’t know who that would have been before this week either…the Glaus signing was the best option. The Big Bat Phenomenon needs to just stop.
I mean, seriously, people are basically saying “We need to sign our own Ryan Howard. Frank Wren didn’t sign a Ryan Howard, so he sucks”.
Like Ryan Howards just grow on trees and are available to everybody.
I mean, if it were that simple, every team would do it. There are only a few Ryan Howards, Prince Fielders and Adrian Gonzalazes in the league. Every club wants one. It isn’t like Atlanta is the only club without a masher.
Saying “we want a masher” is like me saying that I want a Ferari. Of course I do. Who doesn’t??? But, I may just have to “settle” for a Corvette instead.
I was as pissed and upset about the KJ non-tender as anyone, but guess what….I still voted an 8. Why? Because my confidence in the team and the management does not hinge on their moves dealing with one of my favorite players. It hinges on what I think our future is like – and that future is BRIGHT!
I was also one of the most “Do Not Trade Vazquez” advocates. But guess what….we made an awesome deal! The return that we got for Vazquez was ridiculous. Vizcaino is going to be a stud, much along the lines of Julio Tehran.
If that doesn’t make you happy, you may just be very, very shortsighted.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 24, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
totally agree….we got a very good all around player with Glaus. Good D (hopefully just as good at 1st as 3rd, if not better) and someone who can mash 30 and knock in 100 when healthy. Automatically assuming he’s going to be out of the lineup much this season, thus rendering his bat ineffective and saying " we still need a big bat, because Glause will be out" is the most negative approach you could take to the signing….he could also play 140 games, hit 36 homers, and drive in 140. But thats the extremely positive side
by Brave Neander on Dec 24, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
we got one of the best options out there, short of our own Ryan Howard
by Brave Neander on Dec 24, 2009 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
Not Shortsighted
I still only voted 6 which is an upgrade from the last poll where I voted 5. The vasquez trade wasn’t that great if Vizcaino stumbles, yes he’s a great prospect ,but he isn’t going to help the Braves this year and excuse me if I’m mistaken but isn’t the poll about this year? Troy Glaus has me hopeful not Melky Cabrera. I haven’t seen anything that has me thinking the Braves WILL be better than last year. I think LaRoche was a better idea at 1st than Glaus but the FO didn’t even call him apparently. The money is the issue. Get rid of LaRoche and 8-10 mil for 3 years and take someone who might,MIGHT be better for cheap. Placing hope on Freeman , who might be ready in 1-2 years. I think we should have kept LaRoche. A lot of maybe’s and ifs in what I’m seeing. I can’t give a higher vote than 6. I had high hopes at the start of 2009 season and bought season tickets, sorry but I don’t see anything that tells me 2010 will be worthy of buying season tix. Maybe Chipper, Maybe McCann,Maybe Glaus? Really? A bunch of maybe’s this year on the offensive side. Pitching will be good, don’t know about the rest,Sorry.
Senator, we have another old saying,"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." Fletcher
The problem is that LaRoche is left-handed...
…like everyone else. Glaus is a right-handed power bat with a good OBP, if he is healthy. That is the key, but if he isn’t we aren’t on the hook for more than $2 million. That helps—-it means if he gets hurt, we can pick someone else with a salary up in the season. LaRoche asking for what he is just isn’t realistic for anyone, hence, nobody has signed him. Yes, we have a bunch of maybes on the offensive side, add Heyward to your list, and there we go, but we don’t need them all to work. Enough question marks with upside and one should do it.
How much do we know LaRoche would have stayed for other than he wanted, 3 years? He might have settled for less if the FO had been patient. Yes I keep hearing about Freeman, but he won’t be ready for what? 1-2 years? The Braves better get some “big bat” because everything else is iffy beside Diaz and Escobar. Has BMac’s surgery been sucessful? Will his eyesight be Allstar again? No news in this game may not be good news. Right now I’m not seeing an offense that can get to the playoffs, just seeing the same streakyness, except for Glaus, than last year. Same batting coach anyway, it’s his responsibility, whether or not it’s his fault.
Senator, we have another old saying,"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." Fletcher
LOL...
Diaz is one of the two hitters on the Braves who’s not “iffy.” Platooning FTW! And another good point about the batting coach. If you’re not hitting well, it’s definitely always the coaches to blame.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 27, 2009 1:44 AM EST up reply actions
The poll is about your feeling about the organization as a whole, from the players on the Major League team, the coaches, the front office, to the Minor Leagues, not just about this year. Not to say you’re voting is wrong or anything like that, vote however you want, just wanted to point that out.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
No, the poll is not about "this year."
The poll is about the organization as a whole, and, unless you know something I don’t, the organization is planning on existing through at least 12/26/10.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 27, 2009 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
While I was incensed about the Vazquez trade to begin with, I guess we got a decent return. I won’t go as far as justin in saying that ‘we made an awesome deal!’…I’ll just say that I’ve changed my mind in that we didn’t get fleeced.
I’m with Rhyno on the others though. The Wagner/Soriano fiasco with the draft picks was poorly handled. After giving our lineup a once over, I don’t see how we stay in the hunt due to injuries. This is starting to look like the 2008 team, with several veteran players on the team who all went down with injuries.
So I’ll say I’m ‘hopeful but skeptical’, and maybe this team will stay on the field. But with Glaus, Chipper, Hudson, Saito, Wagner, and Moylan I just don’t see how we’ll skip out injury free.
How often does ANY team skip out injury free?
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
I looked at the answer key.
The answer is 7. Answer 6 for partial credit.
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
8
I voted and 8.
Two things keep it from being higher and that is Booby Cox and Terry Pendelton.
I’m not as worried about position players being injured as I am our bullpen…we all know Bobby likes to ride em’ till their arms fall off, and they very well might. If Saito or Wagner go down with injuries, how do we compensate? Does anybody think some of our highly-touted arms from the minors come up early to make a contribution to the pen this year?
by Brave Neander on Dec 24, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Kimbrel, Valdez, Dunn, Medlen...
There is no shortage of good options.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
a 7 for me
this offseason has been wild. and i’ve liked most of the moves – with the exception of the Saito signing and i’m still sad to see Javy go, but it’ll probably help us in the long run – but i can’t get over how injury prone our acquisitions have been. thats my biggest concern for 2010.
I used to like Frank Wren...not anymore. I want John Schierholz back!
by mvhsbball on Dec 24, 2009 12:55 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I went 6...
Not really a big fan of anything that’s been done so far outside of signing Glaus but even he comes with risk, I think if they can sign another bat like Derosa or Dye I think I could bump this up to an 8.
Jermiane Dye, the guy who hit .179 with a .590 OPS in the second half and doesn’t play good defense anymore, would bump you up 2 points? Comiskey is a good hitters’ park, you think he’s gonna have the same kind of power at Turner Field?
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
reply fail, awesome.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Newb
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 24, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
The guy would hit like 6,7, or 8 on this team its not like having another guy that can hit 20 homers in the lineup is a bad thing. Not like I’m depending on the guy to hit 30-35 homers, I want Derosa because of his versatility but if we can’t get him, I might prefer Dye to Nady.
Remember, however, this is not the AL
We can’t have Dye DH. Which means if he is going to bat, he is also going to have to cost us runs in the field. Even if he doesn’t come up until June, given the defensive difference, I would take 2-1 odds that Heyward has a better WAR in 2010 than Dye. I just don’t see the point in signing him.
DeRosa would be useful, but he is going to be too expensive. The latest word is that he is leaning towards accept the 2 yr/$12 million offer from the Giants. I think the Braves should not match that offer, it’s too much money. People need to remember that DeRosa was not a better hitter than Melky Cabrera last year. The versatility is nice, but not $12 million nice.
Given the Glaus/Chipper injury issues, I’d be happy with a better reserve CI. Nady would be okay. I’d be fine with Garko, too. And he doesn’t come with Nady’s injury issues.
RPs
I haven’t been voting in these polls, so I’ll refrain from doing so, b/c I don’t want to skew the tracking results, but I am disappointed to see how the RP market is shaping up.
Rodney just got $11M/2 with LAA, and it looks like Capps is getting $3.5M/1 in Washington. This after Soriano agreed to $7M/1 with Tampa and Gonzalez agreed to $11M/2 (?) with Baltimore.
It seems like by jumping early on Wagner at $7M/1 with a vesting option and Saito at $3M/1 with incentives, Wren may have overpaid for inferior pitchers.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
and
Bwag is coming off surgery. It’s not him I’m worried about. It’s Saito. That’s a move I never really understood.
I used to like Frank Wren...not anymore. I want John Schierholz back!
Yeah, the Saito move was a real head-scratcher, and I do want to wait until these guys get on the field to make up my mind, but it seems like Wren may have jumped early.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
He was, though, a very good MR last year for Boston when he didn't go more than an inning.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm…they handled him with kid gloves, not pitching him back-to-back and putting him in for low-leverage situations. Not sure there’s a lot to draw from that data.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
and lord knows
Bobby won’t pitch a guy for a week and then pitch him 4 nights in a row.
I used to like Frank Wren...not anymore. I want John Schierholz back!
Really?
That’s happened?
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 25, 2009 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
yep
see Medlen, Kris and Moylan, Peter.
I used to like Frank Wren...not anymore. I want John Schierholz back!
sarcasm recognition fail.
: )
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 25, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Just looked through the game logs.
Neither pitcher was in a scenario remotely close to that.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 26, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions
Not exactly true...
I don’t watch Red Sox games, so I can’t say whether or not the “handled him with kid gloves” or use him in “low leverage situations”, but the back to back night thing is completely false. He pitched on consecutive nights multiple times, and had a handful of 3 games in 4/5 days. He doesn’t have near the innings or games the last two years compared to his first two, but he most certainly pitched “back to back”, and did so multiple times, as well as with instances in the first (Apr 18/19) and last month (Sep 19/20) of the year.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
He pitched back-to-back 5 times in 6 months. Not exactly a workhorse.
As for leverage, you can check his WPA/LI. Oh, and while you’re at fangraphs, you may want to check his ERA/FIP differential.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Did I call him a workhorse?...
Or did I say his innings and games have reduced in the last two seasons compared to his first two of the 4 year career?
You said “not pitching him back-to-back”, which is not true. He in fact pitched in consecutive games 7 times for Boston this year (5 consecutive days). It’s also a misleading comment considering the depth Francona had with Daniel Bard (5 times in consecutive games), Billy Wagner (3), Justin Masterson (2), and Manny Delcarmen (9), in addition Jonathan Paplebon, Hideki Okajima, and Ramon Ramirez (all double digits) to turn to.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Now you’re arguing just for arguing’s sake. Go back and look at the press from the season. There’s plenty of talk about the Red Sox treating Saito with kid gloves and using him in low leverage situations.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
And with...
Paplebon, Okajima, Ramirez, Delcarmen, Masterson until July, Wagner from August on, and Bard for most of the season, they had no reason to use him any differently. Plus with all that relaxed use, you think maybe it helped his arm heal a little?
I thought the same thing
I’d much rather had a younger guy like Rodney for $1.5MM more or so, even if it meant adding a year onto the contract.
I used to like Frank Wren...not anymore. I want John Schierholz back!
Right. And Capps for the same price as Saito? Woof.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
I would have loved Capps at that price...
…but he signed for less money for a chance to close. The Cubs offered more for a set-up role, so it isn’t like we could have signed him for Nats money.
Are you guys serious?...
health issues aside, Saito’s numbers make Capps/Rodney look like Manny Acosta. Hell, their numbers look like Acosta on their own.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
Saito has been pretty dominant since arriving from Japan...
his numbers are about as good as it gets. Health may be a question but compare his deal to Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, JJ Putz, and other similar players. Saito is a reasonable signing, especially compared to Lyon and Rodney.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Saito was very good, until he tore the ligament in his elbow. Then, all of a sudden, he started striking out far fewer, walking more, and turning GBs into FBs. Not good.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
But he still got outs, and didn't allow runs...
and I was under the impression that was the primary purpose of pitching—get outs, don’t allow runs.
And you say was like his numbers weren’t solid last year. They were, and if he had a torn ligament in his elbow, why would our doctors approve the deal?
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
LOL. He has a torn ligament in his elbow, and has since 2008. It’s a fact.
Look at his FIP, not his ERA. His numbers were not special.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Because apparently guys can't outpitch their FIP...
although we just found one more to add to that list.
Gonzalez was 2/$12 with incentives that could push it to 14.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
The incentives, from what I have read...
…could push it to $16 million. The Wagner signing seems in line with the other RP signings. Compare it to Rodney—-he got more overall money and within $1.5 million of the per year money of Wagner, and he isn’t any good. Okay, that’s probably a bad comparison—-it isn’t fair to compare other signings to Rodney or the even worse Lyon signing by Houston; those teams were just stupid.
Is Wagner > Rodney? I’m not so sure. I’m quite sure that Soriano > Wagner.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Wow, that's just way out there.
Look at Rodney’s numbers over his career. Then look at Wagner’s. If you can’t see Wagner >>>>>> Rodney, I don’t know what you are looking at. One pitcher has a career 2.39 ERA, 2.79 FIP, and has WAR’s between 1.0 and 2.5 when healthy. The other pitcher has career numbers like: 4.28 ERA, 4.15 FIP, and WAR’s between 0.3 and 0.7. They don’t even belong in the same discussion. One has been a very good relief pitcher for a long time and the other has been consistently mediocre. I can think of no conceivable metric by which Wagner is not at least >> Rodney. If you know of one, please tell me.
As for Soriano and Wagner, both have been very good, although one has done it longer. Wagner is coming off TJ surgery and is older, but has a longer history of success and also has had no major injuries other than the recent TJ surgery. Soriano, on the other hand, has had major injuries in three of the past eight seasons. His career numbers are also worse than Wagner. (Soriano career 2.92 ERA, 3.31 FIP, WAR’s between 1 and 2.)
Look at Rodney’s numbers over his career. Then look at Wagner’s. If you can’t see Wagner >>>>>> Rodney, I don’t know what you are looking at.
I’m looking at age and recent injuries. I’m looking at the fact that one guy is in the prime of his career, and the other (if he’s lucky) is in the last few years of his. If the Braves get 50 innings out of Wagner, I’ll be shocked.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Why?
When did TJ surgery suddenly become so hard to come back from? Especially when we’re talking about a guy that is going to be about 1.5 years removed from the surgery itself. I honestly consider Wagner’s elbow almost a non issue at this point.
Oh and if I had to wager on it, I’ll take Wagner over Soriano in terms of health this coming season. One guy has a history of injury issues, while the other is completely recovered from the one serious injury he has ever had.
I can’t think of any that have bounced back after TJ surgery at 38. But maybe there are some…
I know Tom Gordon was never the same after TJ, and John Franco wasn’t nearly as effective as he’d been pre-TJ, even though he was a few years younger than 38, IIRC.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Rodney is in the prime of his career.
And he has always been mediocre. I’d rather take a chance of great over a obvious mediocrity any day. Especially an expensive mediocrity. Rodney is obviously way over priced. He has always been meh.
We’ll see. I’d wager that Rodney beats Wagner on WPA in 2010.
Rodney has terrific stuff and looks sick when he pitches with a day of rest. On back-to-back nights, his FB flattens out and turns into a meatball. He starts nibbling and walks the whole dugout. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Halos spotted something in his deliver that they can fix for that. It would be karmic revenge for losing Jenks in the same way.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Rodney may have terriffic stuff...
…but he has been in the majors for years now and has yet to use it to have a good season. At what point do you have to give up on a guy harnessing his stuff? I guess he could figure it out after having enough service time to be a free agent, but that is far more rare than a very good pitcher successfully returning from TJ surgery.
We’ll see. I’m not going to convince you and you’re not going to convince me, so there’s really no reason to keep going in circles.
Again, I’d wager that Rodney beats Wagner on WPA in 2010. Any takers?
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
I'll take that deal.
Mr. Sanchez, WPA is win probability added, a sabermetric type stat judging a pitcher’s value. You can find the numbers on fangraphs.
And Yakker, what do you care to wager? I’ll take that bet every day and twice on Sundays. Even if Wagner gets hurt in Spring Training and never throws a pitch, I am still the favorite to win the bet—-Rodney’s WPA has been negative every year of his career except for 2006 and 2009. (Wagner has had a total of one negative WPA year in his 15-year career—-2000.)
So Yakker, name your terms. Consider the gauntlet picked up.
Awesome
Money is gauche. Let’s wager honor and supremacy of baseball knowledge.
Loser has to post an ode to the winner at TC. References to Wagner/Rodney as appropriate.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
So you would have preferred we sign a guy to close who couldn't pitch on back-to-back nights?
That doesn’t seem like the best strategy.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 26, 2009 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
He said that he thought...
…that Rodney was better than Wagner. After that, anything is possible. Freaky Friday kind of stuff. Maybe Jamie Carroll is better than Chipper, right?
No, more like a guy who can play is better than a guy who can’t. I have zero confidence that Wagner will be able to stay on the field.
As I asked someone else, how many 38-year olds have successfully come back from TJ surgery? I can’t think of any.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
That's funny...
…the stat you like, WPA shows that Rodney, for the majority of his career, has been worse than someone who doesn’t pitch at all.
Well, I’m not sure I’d say I like WPA. I just see that over on Fangraphs there’s a serious debate (that I haven’t fully grokked yet) about whether WAR undervalues RPs and WPA (or WPA/LI) would be a better measure.
But you’re right that Rodney has been a pretty lousy pitcher for much of his career. You won’t get any argument from me on that. But I watched him pitch a fair amount in 2009, and he really turned a corner with his control, especially when he was fresh.
At this point, there’s nothing left to say except that we’ll see what happens.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
And you just lost any credibility?...
You aren’t sure Wagner is better than Rodney? I assume that has to be health related, because unless you smoke more crack than your spelling would indicate, you must be a real life example of the old Egg/Brain on drugs commercial.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt your vote is going to skew the poll. Some weeks people say they forget to vote and I’m sure some weeks more people vote than others. If you want to vote, just do it. Or don’t. Whatever.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
And then there are those who vote low because they think the poll is currently too high…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 24, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
Give them an 8
I may not like losing KJ or vaz but I really think we don’t give Frank Wren enough credit for the job he has done since the start of last season. No one gave them a chance last year and they almost went to the playoffs. We need to see how this all plays out. I think we will be fine and Troy Glaus will play in 135 games.
I'm giving a solid 7
I’ve been around 6 all off season but I actually like what Wren has accomplished. It’s not ideal but it’s the reality of the situation at hand.
Wren is doing his best to give Bobby one last run while simultaneously not blocking any of our young up and coming stars. He’s also positioned us quite nicely to lock a few of the young guys up long term if he feels it necessary.
I don’t think were done this Hot Stove but it will cool off here for awhile until Bay and/or Holliday realize there not getting paid Tex money. I honestly think we still need to be looking at Nady, Laroche, KJ, Garko, Blalock, Branyan, Gomes, and so forth and we should wait for a steal of deal towards the end when they are desperate.
I also wouldn’t mind Wren investing the money into our young guys and kicking the tires on Chapman. Chapman isn’t getting more than 18 Million over a few years and he could be a welcome addition when Kawakami and Lowe are off the books in 2011-2012.
Wren is doing fine to this point but how he finishes everything this off season will dictate if his plans are for NOW with BOBBY or for 2011/2012 when all of his young guys are established with Vets like McCann leading the way.
I would love to see Chapman in a Braves uniform
12/22/09- The day Frank Wrong sent the braves organization down the drain and to hell
by Kobe:The Legend on Dec 24, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
I agree. That would be a nice investment, even if he ends up as a reliever. Can’t teach 100 mph.
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8
I’ve been a fan of Troy Glaus ever since his Anaheim days, always thought he was a bit under-rated as an offensive player. If he can hit like he’s capable of and protect Chipper… I think we’ll see the Chipper of ‘08 back, when he had Mark Teixeira protecting him. Our middle of the order is pretty strong with Chipper/Glaus/McCann/Escobar and potentially Jason Heyward. I think next year, if McLouth and Prado can get on base, we’ve got 4, maybe 5, guys capable of driving in plenty of runs.
I have a feeling too, that Derek Lowe is going to be on a mission to prove himself after escaping a trade. I think it offended him that Wren wanted to move him first… maybe now he can turn it around and make Wren look like even more of a genius for not trading him.
Troy Glaus and Kelly Johnson
Just saw a news item that the Diamondbacks are offering Kelly Johnson $2 million, and Kelly’s agent says that teams are offering more. Whaaaat? If K.J. can get $2 mil, then the Braves pulled a bank robbery to get Glaus for $2 mil. Kelly has lost a sense of the plate,
Did we ever find out specifics about what the incentives in Glaus’s contract will be?
by Sir Stealth on Dec 24, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
No, and we probably won't until the new year.
Braves offices are closed.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 25, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, that .270-ish BaBIP had nothing to do with Kelly’s numbers.
If he has lost all sense of the plate, then why were his BBs up and strikeouts down this season?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 25, 2009 2:43 AM EST up reply actions
Cause he played less? Or, maybe he was more timid with the hurt wrist, so he took fewer swings, thus leading to working more counts for more walks and he wasn’t willing to chase pitches, cause it would hurt to swing, so less Ks.
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I didn’t mean a less total number of Ks. Fewer ABs would obviously contribute to that. I am talking about the 3 year trend of his improvement in plate discipline.
For someone to say that he has “lost a sense of the plate” is just ignorant.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 25, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not gonna argue the ignorance of that statement, absolutely is.
It was a dumb guess about the playing time, although, to an extent, less playing time can affect your percentages, but the other thing, swinging less because of a hurt wrist is a valid argument. Either way, that three year improvement in his discipline was right along with a three year decline in his slash stats. Maybe he needs to be less disciplined.
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That is an excellent point about the not swinging due to the injury thing.
And it is really interesting to see his slash stats decline and his “smarts” increase…Do you know of anyone else who kinda fits into that mold?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 25, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know the stats like that well enough to even venture a guess. But, it’s true, some guys do better off of aggressiveness. While it’s good for guys to walk more and strike out less in general, it’s not always the best plan for some guys to be patient.
I’m not sure it would have helped, but Francoeur was a guy who didn’t do well when he had to thik about being more selective. When that was forced into his thought process he became unsure about his entire approach. When it was just see it, hit it, he was better off. Vald Guerrero is a good example of a guy who’d probably be hurt by being “smarter”.
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that $2m makes me think he may not be healthy...
cause if he is, he certainly is worth MUCH more than that considering other contracts out there.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
I think it is a hedge.
Assuming you are talking about Glaus (hard to tell where the replies are here), I think that the $2 million is a base and the incentives are much more than $2 million. Basically, we think he is healthy, but aren’t sure, and he is willing to bet his salary that he will stay healthy. I would guess that if he plays pretty much the whole season, his salary will end up in the $6-7 million range.
Which is why
his deal is supposedly heavily-incentive laden.
If he gets hurt opening day, he still makes $2 million. Without knowing the specifics of his incentives, which still have yet to be released (to my knowledge) there’s no knowing exactly what this deal is likely to be worth, but I’d be very surprised if he’s looking at less than $5 million for a healthy season.
I get why we'd like it with incentives...
but considering Garrett Atkins got $5m guaranteed from the Orioles including 2011 buyout/option, that Troy Glaus would be willing to take less than half guaranteed seems odd. As does the Orioles being willing to gamble $5m on Atkins being a power bat in the IF corners, but not as much or more for Glaus in that role.
The Orioles are also notorious for overspending for free agents and not spending wisely. It’s possible they started out too high and didn’t realize they could have gotten somebody like Glaus cheaper, or even Atkins cheaper.
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If he's not healthy...
Why would he ever get his shoulder checked out by a nationally-renowned surgeon and send those records out to all the teams?
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 26, 2009 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
I think his shoulder is fine...
…the playing in September helped with that. I am more worried about his back. That is trickier. But I still like the signing, because if he goes down, that frees up money to replace him. Expensive guys from bad teams will be available during the season, they always are.
i was
reading that Carlos Delgado is still hurt its good we got Glaus now because teams looking at Delgado would be probably looking at Glaus as a 2nd option and we got him on the cheap good move by Wren
9
This for this so far:
Soriano, Gonzalez and Rd 1 pick
for
Wagner, Saito, Chavez, Rd1.5 pick and Rd 2 pick
Vazquez and Logan
for
Hudson, Vizcaino, Melky and Dunn
Anderson, Johnson and Church
for
Glaus and ~5.5M to add to the rest of the FA money
All of those moves/string of moves really make me feel confident in Wren’s ability to find talent and get value for the talent he is forced to move on from.
Question
Is TFlow + Lillibridge + Santos + Gilmore + 1 year of JV/Logan worth Melky + Dunn + Viz?
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
If Vizcaino is even an average #3/4 starter for several years, absolutely.
Dunn also has the potential to stick in the pen for several years.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 25, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
No idea on the odds, but what percentage of live Single A arms flame out before even cracking the bigs? And Dunn/Logan is a wash for at least 2010. If the Braves keep him for longer than that, perhaps they will gain a touch of value for that.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Well, then Santos has equal, maybe even lesser chance of working out, as Vizcaino. Gilmore hasn’t really shown much at A ball, so he may never work out, and Lillibridge already has no value. So if Logan and Dunn are a wash, you’re left looking at Flowers and a year of Vazquez for Melky plus Vazquez’s 2009.
I guess from that perspective it looks like a loss. I wouldn’t trade Flowers straight up for Melky and while I think Vazquez’s 2010 won’t be as good with the Yankees it might have been good with the Braves, so it’s hard to call that a win.
But, I think Vizcaino will be good, especially now that he’s in an organization with top notch pitching coaches, and in five to seven years, after Vazquez likely only plays one middling season for the Yankees and Flowers is a solid, but not exceptional, DH, this will look like a steal.
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I’ll grant that from what I’ve read Viz > Santos, although my problem with the deal continues to be the impact on 2010.
Let’s say you’re right and Vazquez throws up a 4.40 FIP with the Yanks and walks, but let’s also say the Braves miss the playoffs by 3-5 games. I’m not sure that still looks like a steal for the Braves.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
You also can’t judge a trade on one year alone. Besides, my guess is that a healthy Hudson, a full season of Hanson, and a kawakami who’s actually experienced the Major Leagues, plus a possible resurgence from Lowe, should make up the difference from Vazquez not being there.
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Fair enough.
BTW, everyone here seems to be valuing Viz as a potential SP down the road. But I saw he’s only 6’0", and that appears to be generous. What about the CW on short starters not being durable enough?
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
I read that he gained 2 inches since he signed and is now at 6’2", which is right where Teheran is.
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I hear that eating green beans will do that to ya.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 25, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
Of course, it could make pitchers...
turn into Olendorf, who during his wind-up looks scarily like Popeye.
We wanted this kid bad....
cause I recall the Yankees outbidding us for a kid we wanted bad two years ago. So we save the signing bonus having the Yankees pay it, see him produce better than expected for two years, and land him then? That’s a pretty good set up if it can work out like that. Had to send our most productive starter for it, but he had one year left, was unlikely to repeat the production, plus we got the kid we coveted two years ago BEFORE he produced as expected or better, our stop gap at worst OF until the two kids are ready from AAA, and improve the lefty on the fringe of the roster. I wish it would have been for Lowe instead of Vasquez, but Wren can’t make these trades on playstation, he needs other GMs to agree.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
How many games off would we be...
with vasquez pushing kk or another to the bullpen? the “impact on 2010” is the salary freed up for Glaus (although that $9m saved doesn’t add up to the $2m+ spent), not specifically Vasquez vs. Cabrera in production.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 26, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
Dunn/Logan is NOT a wash...
when you consider that he’s coming at a third the cost and will more than likely provide similar results.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 26, 2009 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
He really can't do any worse.
Dunn was a salary savings. A lefty-reliever who could be good. Even very good. Or he could just suck in the bigs. If he does suck in the bigs, he is Logan, lol.
Yeah, I'm pretty much on board with that...
And he has options, too, so we’re not forced to keep him up just because, as we would have had to do with the Boonester.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 27, 2009 1:45 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah.
I guess that we wanted the Yanks to take Logan back, not the other way around. Given his performance, I assume we would have placed Logan on waivers at some point during 2010. He is a lefty, but he doesn’t get enough major-league hitters out.
Yeah.
Best-case scenario, we would have flipped him for a Josh Anderson/Barton type when he didn’t make the pen out of ST.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 28, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
8
This is a far jump from the 4’s and 5’s I’d been voting. This off-season has been a very productive one and I would’ve given it a higher ranking if Wren wouldn’t have jumped the gun on signing Wagner and Saito until after knowing if Gonzalez or Soriano would/wouldn’t accept arbitration. Other than that I’m loving this off-season.
All the good minor league FA the Braves signed have been really nice pickups Clevlen may suprise us all, M. Jones may finally get his shot and Thurston gives the Braves a versatile IF player.
The Vazquez trade was a good deal IMO, I know many people here don’t think so but Vazquez, who had a terrific season, was only here for 1 more season at 11.5 mil and to get a good fielding 4th OF(Cabrera), a power lefty(Dunn) and a power pitching top prospect(Vizcaino) for 1 year of Vazquez was great. Who knows if Vazquez can repeat his 09 stats if he does great because he’s a great guy but his career numbers don’t say that he will, the Braves also needed the extra cash to make the TEAM better and it was either him or Lowe and Wren probably couldn’t move Lowe without having to eat a large portion of the contract so he moved Vazquez.
I love the Glaus pick up. From all reports his shoulder is healthy and he’s been lifting weights getting ready for the season. IF he is totally healthy he could put up monster numbers in the middle of the Braves lineup.
by Jay212033 on Dec 25, 2009 5:00 AM EST via mobile reply actions
3
I utterly hate trading Vasquez. That such a move became necessary is a testament to how Wren has bungled this offseason by prematurely re-signing Tim Hudson and signing Wagner and Saito.
The signing of Glaus also makes it clear that just like last year the Braves are going to try to cobble together an offense and cross their fingers they win a lot of games with their pitching. It’s not that Glaus is bad. He could match or surpass what Laroche did if he returns to his 2008 form. But then again he barely played last year.
Wren had the payroll to do much better even without trading a starting pitcher, but just like last year he boxed himself in by overspending on pitching and was forced to fill out the lineup off the scrap heap. Unless he now pulls off a trade for Adrian Gonzalez, I’m very disappointed in his work this offseason.
The Braves will still be competitive for a playoff spot and if everything goes right they could win the division but more likely they’ll be scratching and clawing for the wild card and are unlikely to make it out of the first round of the playoffs should they even get there. They were a player or two away from being a championship contender, so that’s very disappointing to me. I’ll be elated if next season proves me wrong of course.
Here’s a preemptive middle finger to anybody who wants to waste their time complaining about this post being negative. I’m not aware of any posting guideline that says we can only be cheerleaders for the team.
They were a player or two away from being a championship contender,
I’m not really sure how this is accurate. Which player or two were they away? Pujols? Also, if you think they can make the playoffs, doesn’t that make them a championship contender? Hard to contend if you’re not playing in October.
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Tim Hudson
comes at a cheaper cost than Vazquez, and has been better over his career than Vazquez has. Thus, it was a pretty easy decision for Wren to offer Hudson his discounted extension, knowing that Vazquez would probably test the free-agent market after the 2010 season and command more than his $11.5 million contract, especially if he has another 2009-esque season.
by BigG1392 on Dec 25, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
good post…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 25, 2009 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
but just like last year he boxed himself in by overspending on pitching and was forced to fill out the lineup off the scrap heap.
This is dead-on. However, in Wren’s defense, perhaps there simply aren’t the available bats that he’d want. I haven’t seen any big bats signed/traded that would be realistic for the Braves. (I don’t consider Holliday/Bay viable options.) Have you?
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
A good point – I don’t think the Braves wanted to commit the money long term to Bay or Holliday even if we had the payroll space to give it to them. We wanted a right handed power bat that we could get short term and not block people, I guess. So even though Glaus is far from a sure thing based on his career injury history and not playing last year, he probably was the number one guy for us to target unless Wren was able to pull off a major trade.
Doesn’t necessarily mean that we maximized what we could have done with our roster this offseason, but I certainly understand the thinking behind the moves. The strange thing is it seems like we still have a lot of money left over and really only the possibility of signing a bench player or making a move mid-season. When that’s the case, it always seems like more could have been done, but sometimes signing a wild card guy like Glaus short term is actually less risky than tying up money long term in a bigger name.
nine
I have been around 7-ish for most of the offseason, though I have bumped myself up to a 9 this week because it appears that Wren understands (at least so far) how to build a sub-$100 million team. The return from trading Vazquez was impressive and it seems clear that the Braves are finally committed to building a young, elite and relatively inexpensive pitching staff.
I realize that hitters are also important, though I do not think Wren should mortgage the future for one or two years to fit into Cox’s management style (i.e. pray for a 3-run homer). Our next manager will hopefully take a more balanced approach to offense and, of course, bullpen management.
Either way, I think we have a tremendous foundation and while I’d like to see Cox and even Chipper go out with another ring, I am glad that that sentiment is not driving personnel decisions that would adversely impact our future.
by hollerin' brave on Dec 25, 2009 11:51 AM EST reply actions
I give an 8
Some people look at this club and say, “Why don’t they go out and sign a huge free agent, like Holliday?” Others look at it and say, “Why are we getting these older guys with injury history, when we should be concentrating on rebuilding and going younger?”
What Wren is dealing with is trying to win on a limited budget. He is going about that in the only way he can: mix in some cheap free agents with high upside, building the farm system, and hoping they can put it all together. There is no way to just buy a championship, unless you’re the Yankees.
Speaking of whom, I can’t believe all the Melky haters. This guy played 150+ games for the World Championship team last year, getting several big hits for them along the way. But he’s not good enough for the Braves?
Don’t oversell Melky. He’s a league average bat with enough glove to play all 3 OF positions. Basically, the definition of a 4th OF, which is what people are calling him. Trading your ace for a 4th OF and some prospects will bring jeers, no matter what your budgetary constraints are.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Of course that is the problem.
Stating that the Braves traded our top starter for a fourth OF and prospects. We actually salary dumped our top starter for a very good prospect, with a marginal prospect and a fourth OF thrown in.
Where is the evidence that this move was salary driven? Obviously salary plays a part in every move, but it appears that the vast majority of money saved in the deal will go unspent, at least for now. Since we weren’t over budget before the trade, I don’t see how it was a salary dump.
We didn't have a first baseman
We were about at our salary limit. We obviously didn’t want to go with Canizares at 1B (which is a good thing) and had six starting pitchers. Since we didn’t particularly get what we needed in return for Vazquez, the obvious reason was to free salary to get what we need. While you say the majority of it will be unspent, I think much of it has already been spent—-while Glaus has a $2 million base, I would guess that the incentives could be as much as $5 million more. And we certainly didn’t have $7 million in payroll room before the trade.
I am not a huge expert on the breakdown of the payroll, but based on breakdowns posted by others, I was under the impression that we did have that 7 million in payroll. Therefore, I don’t think that the obvious reason for the trade was to free up salary at all. The trade seems to be getting the most we could for a starter that we were willing to trade. So the haul was pretty good but not necessarily worth a #1 starter, though Wren seems of the opinion that Hudson is likely to have as good a season as Javy would have (or at least good enough for the haul we got to be worth the difference, though it’s not like we gave up nothing to get Javy in the place).
So yeah, based on what I’ve seen, it doesn’t seem like a dump to me. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if we could have traded all of Lowe’s contract for nothing, but simply preferred to get a decent return for the pitcher that we ultimately traded.
How did we have $7 million to spend?
Every indication was that the payroll wouldn’t be higher than the start of last season at the start of this season. That was about $92 million give our take a couple of million. We saved $10 million in the trade give or take and are at $82 million after Glaus’s base, but not his incentives, meaning we were at $80 after the trade. That means we were at $90 before the trade. That doesn’t leave $7 million. (For what it is worth, I think we have to count $500,000 of Saito’s incentives—-based on appearances—-but not the rest, because they won’t happen unless Wagner goes down, because they are based on games finished.)
Admittedly I am mostly basing that on the analysis from the fanpost that was put up recently (http://www.talkingchop.com/2009/12/20/1209350/braves-should-diversify-not), but I recall other breakdowns coming up with similar numbers. You could argue that using up 7 of 8.1 million for Glaus is cutting it too close, or that Melky puts us a little over, or that we need the money for more additions this offseason or in the season, but I still think it’s close enough that the Vazquez trade was not a salary dump, and if salary was a consideration, it was secondary at best.
Fair enough.
My reasoning is simply based on what I call “duh” logic. We needed to free up salary for a 1B. We had six SP. We saved significant salary in the trade. We reportedly reached an agreement with a 1B the day after the trade.
I acknowledge that those facts don’t necessarily mean that the trade was a salary dump. I also agree that we may well have coveted the return we got previously and that the return, not the salary savings were the reason. Still, the “duh” logic indicates that it was a salary dump.
Admittedly I am mostly basing that on the analysis from the fanpost that was put up recently (http://www.talkingchop.com/2009/12/20/1209350/braves-should-diversify-not), but I recall other breakdowns coming up with similar numbers. You could argue that using up 7 of 8.1 million for Glaus is cutting it too close, or that Melky puts us a little over, or that we need the money for more additions this offseason or in the season, but I still think it’s close enough that the Vazquez trade was not a salary dump, and if salary was a consideration, it was secondary at best.
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