Analysis on Wren's "Big Bat"
I thought it might be interesting to compile a list using the 2010 CHONE projections of potential right handed bats that could hit 30 home runs, since that is what Frank Wren says he is looking for. Once we have those narrowed down, I'll look at the players left and give my thoughts on who we sign or trade for to be our big bat.
If you see anyone who I might have left out, please let me know! Remember that these are based on CHONE projections, so if I left someone off it is probably because they weren't projected to do very well.
So, here is the list of FA players that could possibly hit 30 bombs (predicted 20+):
| Name | Bats | HR |
| Bay, Jason | R | 31 |
| Cust, Jack | L | 28 |
| Holliday, Matt | R | 26 |
| Dye, Jermaine | R | 25 |
| LaRoche, Adam | L | 24 |
| Thome, Jim | L | 23 |
| Delgado, Carlos | L | 22 |
| Guerrero, Vladimir | R | 22 |
| Duncan, Shelley | R | 22 |
| Branyan, Russell | L | 20 |
| Blalock, Hank | L | 20 |
| Ankiel, Rick | L | 20 |
Let's eliminate the L handed batters:
| Bay, Jason | R | 31 |
| Holliday, Matt | R | 26 |
| Dye, Jermaine | R | 25 |
| Guerrero, Vladimir | R | 22 |
| Duncan, Shelley | R | 22 |
Hmmm. All these guys are outfielders, and several are on the list that FW said he wasn't going to pursue. Let's eliminate those:
| Dye, Jermaine | R | 25 |
| Guerrero, Vladimir | R | 22 |
| Duncan, Shelley | R | 22 |
Well, that is not a pretty list. Jermaine Dye could possibly be who FW is referring to here. I personally would eliminate Shelley Duncan and Vlad from a 1st base possibility, but I'll leave them in there for shits and giggles.
So, that was our FA list. Let's go check out the lists of 1st baseman that could possibly throw up 30 round trippers:
| Howard, Ryan | L | 44 |
| Fielder, Prince | L | 41 |
| Pujols, Albert | R | 39 |
| Teixeira, Mark | B | 34 |
| Dunn, Adam | L | 34 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | R | 33 |
| Gonzalez, Adrian | L | 33 |
| Pena, Carlos | L | 32 |
| Berkman, Lance | B | 27 |
| Morneau, Justin | L | 27 |
| Konerko, Paul | R | 26 |
| Votto, Joey | L | 25 |
| Davis, Chris | L | 25 |
| Lee, Derrek | R | 24 |
| LaRoche, Adam | L | 24 |
| Youkilis, Kevin | R | 23 |
| Delgado, Carlos | L | 22 |
| Morales, Kendry | B | 22 |
| Branyan, Russell | L | 20 |
| Blalock, Hank | L | 20 |
Good list. Let's eliminate the lefties:
| Pujols, Albert | R | 39 |
| Teixeira, Mark | B | 34 |
| Cabrera, Miguel | R | 33 |
| Berkman, Lance | B | 27 |
| Konerko, Paul | R | 26 |
| Lee, Derrek | R | 24 |
| Youkilis, Kevin | R | 23 |
| Morales, Kendry | B | 22 |
Ah, that's much better! Now, to insert the human element: I'm going to eliminate who I think is untouchable from this list.... those that we cannot afford and are pretty much unobtainable. Tex (you bastard), Pujols and Cabrera are gone. Berkman makes right at 15 million, so I scratched him as well, too:
| Name | Bats | age2010 | Team | HR |
| Konerko, Paul | R | 34 | CHA | 26 |
| Lee, Derrek | R | 34 | CHN | 24 |
| Youkilis, Kevin | R | 31 | BOS | 23 |
| Morales, Kendry | B | 27 | LAA | 22 |
Much better. So, in total we have a list of 7 possibilities:
| Name |
| Konerko, Paul |
| Lee, Derrek |
| Youkilis, Kevin |
| Morales, Kendry |
| Dye, Jermaine |
| Guerrero, Vladimir |
| Duncan, Shelley |
I am going to eliminate Vlad and Duncan, just because I don't think they can play first very well. I'm also going to eliminate Youkilis, because Boston would rather cut off a nut than trade theirs.
| Name |
| Konerko, Paul |
| Lee, Derrek |
| Morales, Kendry |
| Dye, Jermaine |
Morales is interseting, because we've already had discussions with the Angels, and I'm certain that his name has come up. The Braves KNOW already what it will take to get him... of this I am certain. I simply don't think we pull that trigger, though, because it would literally cost us a fortune, and he would block Freeman.
Derrek Lee has been batted around several times, but I don't know why the Cubbies would want to trade him. Same with Konerko. Maybe they'd entertain the discussion, but I highly doubt we'd both want to pay what they'd be asking for. Especially because of the next name on the list is...
Jermaine Dye is a FA, and he is obviously available. He wouldn't block Freeman, and he has shown interest in playing 1st base already. He would also sign on the cheap.
So, my projection that the individual Frank Wren is going to bring in to man first base for us that has the potential to hit 30 HRs with 100 RBIs and bats right handed is:
drum roll.....
Jermaine Dye!
He didn't put up a bad line last year... I wish that SLG was up around .500... but overall not too bad. I personally would want a little more out of my cleanup guy, but he looks a hell of alot better than nothing.
| SPLITS | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Season | 141 | 503 | 78 | 126 | 19 | 1 | 27 | 81 | 64 | 108 | 0 | 2 | .250 | .340 | .453 | .793 |
What do you guys think? Did I leave anyone out? I definitely want to say that this is in no way me pushing for or condoning a Jermain Dye signing... all I was doing was taking a look at what Frank Wren said he wanted, looking at who fit that description, and came up with a matrix based on that.
The only blatant loophole that I see is those OF and other position players that are not FA that can play first base... like Michael Cuddyer. There was no way for me to exhaustively check all of those, so I left them out. Same with other positions that have been discussed (Uggla @ 2nd, so on). I just had to assume that FW was looking at a natural 1st baseman or a FA that could easily make that move.
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Comments
And before anyone asks...
Xavier Nady was only projected to hit 16 HRs. That is a long way from 30.
by Kelly's Big Johnson on Dec 23, 2009 8:12 AM EST reply actions
CHONE says 18 in about 400 ABs.
0.242 0.348 0.431 slash line.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 23, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
So they are assuming not healthy all year
I’d still take him and a 2nd like Jacobs, or preferably Nady/Garko since they can play more than just 1st. I guess it depends on how much we throw at Glaus, but I assume not enough to make Nady/Garko/Jacobs out of our price range.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 23, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
A right handed Outfield power hitter might come as well by trade when he is not playing first base. I excludes some guys like Braun, Longoria etc. But i guess these names need to be analysed as well in analysis like this.
So lets include:
Ryan Ludwick
Michael Cuddyer
Nelson Cruz
Juan Rivera
Josh Willingham
Dan Uggla
And i have said it before may I dream: Billy Butler (way to high OBP for Royals standards) Melky or McLouth fits their CF need.
by Dutch Braves Fan on Dec 23, 2009 8:25 AM EST reply actions
The problem with Dye...
…is his skills are deteriorating and his defense has consistently been twice as bad as FUGA’s was last year. If Dye is the guy (and I wouldn’t be surprised), that would seriously suck. Yeah, he is willing to play first base, but I doubt he would play it well.
I would, for example, much prefer Glaus. Coming off an injury and also not a first baseman, but the third to first transition seems easier and he has more power, generally, than Dye.
Why Glaus has more power a better OBP maybe, but in power Dye is the better option I guess.
by Dutch Braves Fan on Dec 23, 2009 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
I'm sure your right
It always blows my mind when people claim someone else has defense worse then FUGA.
What does he only have one eye and no depth perception? Does he try to field bare handed? There are girls on my softball team who play a better left field 8 beers deep than FUGA.
Crazy.
by Sid Bream's Moustache on Dec 23, 2009 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
You obviously haven't watched Dunn try to play the OF
He is noticeably and obviously worse than FUGA defensively. He’s quite comical actually. It is a scary thought, but, yeah, there are worse fielders than Dye.
He's got just as good a chance to be decent at first as Glaus does.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 23, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Ken Rosenthal just twittered Glaus is close to signing with The Braves
by Dutch Braves Fan on Dec 23, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
Here's the problem with your analysis.
The big bat could be any player in MLB at any position. Yes, many are likely untouchable and we think we’re set at many positions and wouldn’t want to move our young, controllable players A, B or C. However, we really only need one big bat and can’t necessarily anticipate exactly what assets FW would be prepared to move to get who we want. The fact is we have lots of tradeable pieces both at the major league and minor league levels and money to spend. Therefore, there are lots of things that could potentially happen.
Matt Kemp, for example, isn’t on your list. But the Dodgers seem to be experiencing serious financial distress. Is there an opportunity there that we wouldn’t expect? Who knows?
There could be a true blockbuster 3 or 4 team deal in the offing and sitting here today, there’s no way we could see it coming.
Man you totally got my attention by naming Matt Kemp. I know we can’t say anything but i sure hope we get the rumors today and when names like Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez (extended and well), Jason Bay, Derrek Lee, Pence would show up i guess all the love will be back with Frank wren
by Dutch Braves Fan on Dec 23, 2009 9:10 AM EST up reply actions
My boner for Matt Kemp knows no bounds, but if you think theres a way to get him that doesn’t involve the word Heyward (or Mccann) your crazy.
Matt Kemp was #14 on the Fangraphs trade value list. By comparison, Jason Heyward and Tommy Hanson were 39 or 40 (B Mac was #6, birdcall).
The only other Braves player listed? Javy Vazquez as an honorable mention. We really took advantage of that trade value.
by Sid Bream's Moustache on Dec 23, 2009 9:14 AM EST up reply actions
This is exactly the type of very superficial, narrow thinking that as fans we are all routinely guilty of.
Fact: Kemp made under $500K last year and is set for a HUGE increase via arbitration. Other Dodger players set for arbritration increases include Chad Billingsley, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Russell Martin and George Sherrill.
Do this google news search: Dodgers McCourt finances
Yes...
…the Dodgers have some financial issues with the owner’s divorce. Yes, Kemp is due a raise. But he is still a first year arbitration guy. He won’t be that expensive. He’ll still be an incredibly cheap and very good player. If the Dodgers traded him, they would be absolutely nuts. They just aren’t going to do it. Of the guys you listed, they’ll trade Sherill is probably all unless the trade is a talent for talent swap, not a salary dump. They have already shed the salaries of Wolf and Orlando Hudson this off-season.
I agree...
and well said.By way of your reasoning, who would you think the Braves might be going after, fandave?
by mikie baseball on Dec 23, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
This Can't be all
TG does not rank as a Huge Signing….maybe if it was done 6 or so years ago!
Thanx KBJ for sifting through potential 20+ HR bats….I think after the dust settles from the TG purchase there will be an “insurance” purchase…or trade…if it is a trade it will be for Youth (under age 29) if purchase, it will be a senior 20+HR bat…Or FW will say I am finished?
I think FW
can say he is finished,but that could all be a disguise.Do we not still have 15mil-17mil left for payroll? What is important,is that with Glaus, he could go into he season with a formidable team and not be forced to make a move.I still believe a bigger move will be made on FW’s terms,or not at all.I am merely speculating here
It's closer to $10 mil than 15.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 24, 2009 9:46 AM EST up reply actions

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