Braves Should Diversify, Not Overspend
by unite8 on Dec 20, 2009 2:27 AM EST
52 comments
While all Braves' fans would love our team to have the luxury of spending whatever amount it takes to have the Matt Hollidays and Jason Bays of the baseball world lead us in the "Tomahawk Chop," we are faced with a harsh reality.
Life is not fair, and all markets are not created equal. The Braves are not the bully of the market--that position is occupied by a team-that-shall-not-be-named. They are a mid-market team, and with that position comes certain limitations. Mid-market teams cannot afford to "put all of their eggs into one basket," paying a player lots of Ben Franklins for lots of years and merely hoping that he puts up the kind of numbers that make their gamble worth it. What if he gets injured? What if he struggles? What if he's a pain in the a**?!
No, mid-market teams like the Braves can't afford this. We need only to look at their 2010 payroll for the 25-man roster that has been assembled thus far for evidence:
|
Name |
Pos. |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
▪ Derek Lowe |
SP |
$15M |
$15M |
$15M |
|
▪ Javier Vasquez |
SP |
$11.5M |
---FA |
---FA |
|
▪ Tim Hudson |
SP |
$9M |
$9M |
$9M |
|
▪ Jair Jurrjens |
SP |
$0.45M |
---ARB |
---ARB |
|
▪ Tommy Hanson |
SP |
$0.45M |
$0.45M |
---ARB |
|
▪ Kenshin Kawakami |
SP |
$6.67M |
$6.67M |
---FA |
|
▪ Billy Wagner |
CL |
$6.75M |
opt. ($6.25M) |
---FA |
|
▪ Takashi Saito |
SE |
$3.2M |
---FA |
---FA |
|
▪ Peter Moylan |
RP |
pending (~$3M) |
---ARB |
---ARB |
|
▪ Eric O’Flaherty |
RP |
$0.45M |
---ARB |
---ARB |
|
▪ Jesse Chavez |
RP |
$0.45M |
$0.45M |
---ARB |
|
▪ Kris Medlen |
RP |
$0.45M |
$0.45M |
---ARB |
|
▪ Boone Logan |
RP |
pending (~$1M) |
---ARB |
---ARB |
|
▪ Brian McCann |
C |
$5.5M |
$6.5M |
$8.5M |
|
▪ Martin Prado |
2B |
$0.45M |
---ARB |
---ARB |
|
▪ Yunel Escobar |
SS |
$0.45M |
---ARB |
---ARB |
|
▪ Chipper Jones |
3B |
$13M |
$13M |
$13M |
|
▪ Matt Diaz |
LF |
$2.55M |
---ARB |
---ARB |
|
▪ Nate McClouth |
CF |
$4.5M |
$6.5M |
opt. ($10.65M) |
|
▪ David Ross |
C (BE) |
$1.6M |
---FA |
---FA |
|
▪ Omar Infante |
IF (BE) |
$2.225M |
opt. ($2.5) |
---FA |
This brings the total to $88.6 million with four spots left to fill on the roster--presumably a first baseman, a starting outfielder, a utility man, and a fourth outfielder. Since the Braves spent $96.7 million on their 25-man roster for 2009 and are unlikely to increase this number, they currently have about $8.1 million left before trading one of their pitchers. If they unload Derek Lowe's entire contract, they will have $23.1 million to spend, and if they trade Vasquez, they will have $19.6 million to spend (NOTE: both numbers before taking into account the salary of the person(s) they receive in return).
Most people would agree that the Braves main area of need is power. So what is best? Bring in one big bopper for near $20 million (Bay/Holliday) and fill the other positions with as much minor league talent as possible?
It would be better for the Braves to do what many teams have done in recent years and split that money between 3-4 players that could all benefit the club immediately. There are some pretty decent talents left on the free agent market that the Braves could likely pick up for short-term contracts of around $5 million each. Some examples:
- Russell Branyan (1B) – 2009: $1.4M; .251/.347/.520 31 homers 431 AB (1 per 13.9 AB)
- Marlon Byrd (CF) – 2009: $3.06M; .283/.329/.479 20 homers 547 AB (1 per 27.4 AB)
- Ronnie Belliard (2B) – 2009: $1.9M; .277/.325/.451 10 homers 264 AB (1 per 26.4 AB)
- Joe Crede (3B) – 2009: $2.5M; 225/.289/.414 15 homers 333 AB (1 per 22.2 AB)
- Ryan Garko (1B) – 2009: $0.45M; .268/.344/.421 13 homers 354 AB (1 per 27.2 AB)
- Jonny Gomes (LF) – 2009: $0.6M; .267/.338/.541 20 homers 281 AB (1 per 14.1 AB)
- Xavier Nady (OF/1B)– 2009: $6.5M (injured in 2009)
- Juan Uribe (3B) – 2009: $1M; .289/.329/.495 16 homers 398 AB (1 per 24.9 AB)
What's interesting is that many of these names have HR per AB ratios similar to Matt Holliday (1/24.2), and two of them have a ratio better than Jason Bay (1/14.5). If I were Frank Wren--and how many of us have said that over the past two years--I would trade Lowe to whichever team will eat the most of his salary for a decent prospect or two and sign Branyan to play first, Gomes to play the outfield, Nady as insurance for both the outfield and 1B positions, and either Uribe or Crede as a viable backup for Chipper at 3B when he inevitably sits out quite a few games. Then, I infuse several right-handed players (except for Branyan) with power potential into my power-starved team, and I have options in case someone gets injured or simply performs poorly.
If the Braves can land someone magnificent through trading Vasquez or some prospects that the Braves can afford to part with, or if Laroche or Derosa sit on the free agent market long enough that their asking prices become more reasonable, then I might rethink this strategy.
What do you guys think?
4 recs |
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haha
I know man, I still want Cameron and LaRoche and that’s it.
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 20, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
def not
Marlon Byrd. His stats are skewed from arlington.
Alright, question for you guys:
IF you could look ahead 3 1/2 months and look at the 25-man roster on opening day, would you do it?
I don’t think I would.
In Frank Wren I trust.
FYI...
Moylan’s very unlikely to get $3 mil. Probably closer to half that (if not less.) It’s only his first year of arbitration.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
This is such ...
good analysis. I especially think your remarks above the contracts are great points.That said, the data you put forth actually shows how well we have not overspent, with Lowe being the exception.Frankly, even Lowe wasnt that far off market, as I believe that the Mets offered at least 13mil for him, and we got respectable pitching for the dollars.
Here is my question… assuming we rid ourselves of Lowe’s contract,and Chipper retires(an If)and Vasquez goes the free agent route, what happens next year? The salary commitments look really low in that case,which may not be that great to have because you might be forced to buy above market players.I think we can afford a big bat this year, and deal incrementally next year.
Again , thanks for the work you put in…
by mikie baseball on Dec 20, 2009 10:07 AM EST reply actions
Glaus, Delgado and then Branyan i would target at 1st. I would then target LaRoache only if his asking prices drop. Delgado and Glaus you could probably get for cheap. Branyan is kind of scary bc he hasn’t rly produced what he did this season in previous seasons.
So I’d take Glaus or Delgado 2-5 mill at 1st base. Then Nady similar contract to that in Right. Maybe a look at Jermaine Dye. Then find a guy that can hit Righties from the Left side and platoon him with Diaz in Left.
Thruston would be our OF backup and Infante could also help. Heyward and Schafer would get time in the AAA. That can only benefit them with their lack of PA in the minors.
To be honest i think right now we try to resign Vazquez. He’ll probably have another great year in the NL but not to last years extent. See what he’s wanting bc probably we won’t be able to resign him if he is a FA. If his price is to high then i think we shop him now even though we don’t want to see him traded. If we shop him our trade options will open up dramatically and the Braves could probably get a young power bat. Dream guys Adam Jones, Adam Lind and you can name more.
You won't get Delgado...
…for $2-5 million. Glaus, perhaps. But if Nick Johnson can get $5.5, I wonder if you could get either of them that cheap. Nady, we probably could, but it is a question whether is arm is healthy enough to play OF. I would avoid Dye like the plague; he’ll be to expensive based on HR numbers and his defense is FUGA-bad.
But then the Yankees seem to set their own salary scale...
so using Nick Johnson is probably the wrong comparison. There are Yankee salaries, and then everyone else, with perhaps the Red Sox somewhere in between the two. No one pays like they do, and I don’t think that salary will be as comparable as perhaps Hank Blalock, Russell Branyan, and others.
Coco Crisp...
…is about to sign a $5 million deal with Oakland. Delgado will get more than $5 million. Yes, the Yankees can set their own price when they want to do it, but when they are in the market for say, a DH, and they have tons of choices, they usually don’t exceed market price just for fun. Same with Boston—-they paid Cameron market price or maybe a bit less. (Probably market price as he is usually under-valued.)
Sure, there will be some values late in the off-season as there often are; but the market rate for guys like Delgado is more than $5 million. Same with Branyan. Blalock, he might go for under $5 million, but then again, he sucks.
Rank Blarco for $5M?
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
I’d have a hard time believing Branyan will replicate his 09 success and Gomes was a huge beneficiary of Great American. I know almost everyone is against looking into Jason Bay around here due to his defense and huge contract demands but it appears the mets are the only interested party and Bay is not exactly interested in taking their money even if they will give him 16 per for 4 years. If those talks reach an impasse, I wouldn’t mind seeing the braves step in with a 3 year ~40million dollar offer because fact is he is the 2nd best hitter on the FA market and would make this team better (all this assumes Lowe is moved too) and add Delgado or Glaus for first base. That’s a very strong offense in that case and the defense isn’t going to kill you though by no stretch of the imagination is it good. That would still leave a good 5-7M if we don’t eat any money on Lowe’s deal more than enough to fill the remaining holes
by McCann's the Man on Dec 20, 2009 11:21 AM EST reply actions
Do not understand why you apparently think that if Bay turns down and offer of $64 M / 4 years from the Mets, he would be willing to consider an offer of $40 M / 3 years from us. Please explain.
“If those talks (ones with the mets) reach an impasse, I wouldn’t mind seeing the braves step in with a 3 year ~40million dollar offer.” I doubt the Mets just leave it as a standing offer and don’t do anything else this offseason while waiting on Bay (although who knows with minaya) and only if the two sides don’t reach an agreement would I like us to consider him. It appears Bay has no interest in joining the Muts so it’s not improbable to imagine a scenario where a deal isn’t reached and who does that leave to go after bay, the giants and braves really.
by McCann's the Man on Dec 20, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
If the asking price for Bay goes that low...
…there will be plenty of suitors for his services. The reason there aren’t many right now is that the asking price is so high. The Angels, for one, would offer more than 3/40. Probably the Rangers, Yankees, Cubs and others as well.
Proven or unproven
I guess all those that you listed have some distractors…but good post because I guess the major thing FW looks at is the $ figure?
I started to write a post concerning the “Bobby” factor. Seeing that it was his last year, who does he call in for a “favour” of playing for us off the bench…..Do you think he approached Bonds and asked him to PH off his bench? Is that why Bond’s PA said he was offically retired?
Just a thought………
Huh?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 20, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Nady would be good
But there’s the Scott Boras factor. A guy who’s been largely average in his career (except for one half-season) and coming off of Tommy John surgery should be an inexpensive signing. Boras may not see it that way, though, and therefore won’t bring his price down.
I agree in all of your predictions but I think we can better get Delgado than Russell Branyan
The Spanish Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Dec 20, 2009 1:16 PM EST reply actions
Rec'd
I agree with your point, appreciate your research and thought the post was funny and well written.
Rah Rah Ah Ah Ah Roma Romama GaGa Ooh Lala
Hello Unite8, the poster suddenly in my top three contributors,
Great work, our pitching is fantastic and we shouldn’t gamble on Cox’s final season.
I would love a World Series, but I would be happy in Bobby’s last year was defined by a good team with a legendary pitching staff. We should get a bat, but it should not cost us much.
If Wren only moves Lowe, I will be a happy camper. I don’t care if he only gets a prospect. Keep the pitching staff intact! It is too good, and has the potential to be one for the ages.
For now, with Heyward and Freddie both so close. I have only two right-handed bats that I want for Christmas, and Santa is off to a good start. Mitch Jones and Andruw Jones are enough, and they are practically free. I know he isn’t good anymore, but he can hit a few dingers and is a perfect fit for Bobby’s final year. This is going to be a fun year
Andruw signed with the White Sox a few weeks ago. I kinda wanted him too
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 20, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
So we have a top 12 and a top 3…I wonder if anyone is on both lists?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 20, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm
If we got Rivera for Lowe i wouldnt mind Garko at 1B. Neither one of those guys are super power bats but then again the end of last season just showed us we need consistent bats in our lineup. KJ, FYF, GA, and Schafer were killing our lineup out of inconsistencies. 2nd half was better with McCann hitting a little better, the emergence of Diaz and Escobar then LaRoche. We still had underperforming from Chip and McLouth though.
With all that said if we just bring in some guys to make our offense as consistent as our SP was we will have a great year.
I like the idea, but not the names you list.
Branyan just came off his career season; he’ll make more than $5 million and 1 year and there is no guarantee that he will produce.
Byrd will also get more than $5 million and one year, and he has been very bad outside of Arlington; I could see him sucking in Atlanta.
Ronnie Belliard will be cheap, but he’s a scrub. He hits a few dingers but he is mostly just a back-up infield option.
Crede, if I remember correctly, has serious injury issues, as well as defensive issues and contact issues. Simply put, he hits some homers but sucks pretty much every way else. We should stay far away.
Garko and Nady are reasonable options depending on cost, but I think we can do better at 1B than those guys.
Gomes can hit. Unless we have a DH spot available, he is not a great answer however because his defense is absolutely brutal.
Uribe has a bit of pop, but also a career OBP under .300, which is abysmal. With a career OPS+ of 83, he’s not really the answer to anything.
I highly doubt that either Branyon or Byrd will get 5 million in this year’s market. I would think around 3 would probably be enough. I wouldnt touch Byrd for that price but I might take a flyer on Branyan (only if we couldnt get Laroche, Delgado or Glaus).
The thing I don’t get is if we currently have 8 million to spend without moving Lowe’s contract, why are we still sitting around? I think we could easily sign a guy or two who will help us with that 8 million. Heck, you could probably even get a Delgado or a Glaus for around 5 I’m guessing.
Because the critical unknowns are whether we can move Lowe in the short term and if so, what we get back in return and how much money is available to hopefully make the best move or moves possible.
And if we can’t move Lowe in the short term, a critical decision has to be made to either put Vazquez on the block or not.
So, its kinda like a poker game, we’re watching and waiting and trying to hold all options open.
I completely disagree.
The market isn’t that bad this year. If Nick Johnson gets $5.5, Delgado will certainly get more (from the Mets if nobody else, but I would assume the Orioles would pay him that much, too). Glaus, it is harder to say; he could get over $5 million, but a lot depends on the medical reports he has given to all the teams and obviously we have no clue what is on them. Branyan could get $7-8 to resign with Seattle if he would take a one-year deal, but so far he wants multiple years. Byrd will get more than $5 million from the Cubs, probably before the first of the year.
I am not sure why you think this is such a bad market. Outside of closers, players have been doing pretty well it seems, other than the perennially undervalued Mike Cameron. And closers haven’t done well just because the market is saturated with them.
You could split the baby on them though...
compared to Nick Johnson (although I think the salary of a Yankee is an isolated thing that can’t equate to others around the league). But with the injury questions of Glaus and Delgado, I could easily see a base below Johnson, but if they are healthy would get incentive to double or triple the salary and take it well above the 5.5 for Johnson.
It's not like Johnson isn't as big...
…an injury risk as Delgado and Glaus. He is. And the bargains don’t show up until February when a player falls through the cracks. If Delgado would take a contract like that right now, he’d get 6 offers immediately. The problem is that there are still plenty of teams that need corner IF/corner OF types. We need one or two. Boston needs a corner IF as they appear to have given up on Lowell, Texas needs a corner/DH, Seattle needs a 1B, the Mets need one or two corner IF/OF guys, etc.
A guy like Delgado probably wants 2 years, $20 million. He’s not gonna get it, but he’ll probably end up with one year $8 or $9 million or two years $15 million. Yeah, there will probably be an Abreu type that falls through the cracks, but it won’t be until late.
I still want Delgado at first over anyone. I would offer him 1 year/5 million with some incentives, if that doesn’t get him, I’d be ok with giving him anything up to 8 million..It seems like alot of people have forgotten about him and the kind of dangerous hitter he was just last year..He hit 38 homers in 08’ and started off 09’ hot as well with a .914 OPS, .521 SLG, and .298 AVG…that would be huge in the middle of this lineup…besides the injury, there is no reason to assume that he’s slowing down…regarding the injury, he’s always been a hardworking guy and since he’s playing winter ball I feel like he’s dedicated and could be the old carlos again…and if thats so, signing him for 5 million might be the steal of the decade
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
He's actually not playing winter ball that I can tell.
He’s not showing up on the PRWL stats page.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 21, 2009 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
yes, he actually is.
http://www.novafantasysports.com/Carlos+Delgado+playing+winter+ball
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
I've seen that report.
It’s from mid-November. The PRWL is 25+ games into their season, and he’s yet to play.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 21, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
It would be.
But he won’t sign for it. At least not unless he is still unemployed by mid-February, but I doubt that will be the case.
whose to say he wouldn’t? he’s an older guy coming off a fairly serious injury…he doesn’t have much leverage and no GM will be willing to invest alot of money in that…
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
I would say he wouldn't.
I guess I could be wrong. But I have a feeling that if he would go for that, he would have signed already. Plenty of teams would take a minimal risk like that. I guess there are guys who price themselves below market value, but they sign early. Yes, he is older. Yes, he has injury risk. On the other hand, yes, he has a long track record of incredible production. Yes, he was very good in 2008. In today’s market, I am sure he can and will get more than that. Hell, Coco Crisp is about to get $5 million from a small market team and he’s coming off an injury. Delgado will get more than that.
i think the reason he hasn’t signed is because alot of teams are waiting to see how well he does in winter ball…5M may be a little bit of a stretch, but I could see somewhere around 8 or 9M
"Im a fullonrapist, I do men, women, autistic kids, children, the elderly." -Charlie Kelly
On that, I agree.
I think $8 or $9 million is where he’ll end up. Given his age and injury history, it seems about right. A team offering two years might get a discount down to $7 or $7.5 per year, although I imagine that teams will be leery about giving him two years.
Except now he isn't even playing winter ball.
I don’t know any reason he wouldn’t other than he’s close to a deal with somebody and there’s no need or he’s had a setback.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 21, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
Or, this is typical winter league stuff.
Other articles I have read said that he was going to start playing in mid-december, which is close to now. In most of these winter leagues, the season starts with a bunch of kids playing who are trying to get contracts in the states, and the established major and minor leaguers who play don’t start playing until later in the season. That seems like the most logical thing that is happening here—-if Delgado had an injury or was about to sign, there probably would be a rumor somewhere.
He was supposed to start on the 15th. That's a week ago.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 21, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
A little less than a week ago.
The timetable could have been changed for any number of reasons. If he hasn’t played by the start of the year, I would begin to wonder, but not so much before then.
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