Source: Braves Sign Wagner
by bravesfan91 on Dec 2, 2009 1:37 AM EST
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Well, that didn't take long at all did it? The deal is reportedly for 1yr/$7MM with a vesting option at 50 games finished for $6.5MM. This obviously fills one of our bullpen slots with one of the most effective relievers in history. So, what do you guys think of our new closer? And I need a few more words, so GO BRAVES and GO WAGNER!
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Nice! I'd sure love to be able to keep Gonzo...
but I guess not, since he and Wagner are both lefties
I actually love Wagner as a player, but I hate the signing. Red Sox offered him arbitration so there goes a first round draft pick. Maybe the Braves will go out and sign another Type A and dump a second rounded on the Sox instead.
Baseball:Sabermetrics::Luddites:Technology
Might as well go ahead and make Jason Bay a Brave and we can send our first and second to them.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
by jeg on Dec 2, 2009 5:22 AM EST up reply actions
but we'll get
2 each from Soriano and Gonzo. So signing Bay and Wagner and losing Soriano and Gonzo would get us +1 picks than we have now.
Bay can’t field to save his life. I’d say resign LaRoche for 2 years/17 million and Cameron for 1 year 7 million and look into a Lowe/KJ trade to someone (and we kick in 12 million for him). I think that those two would help out Houston (for Lee?).
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Dec 2, 2009 6:41 AM EST up reply actions
kick in $12M of Lowe’s $15M salary? What would be the point??? I’d rather keep him if the difference is going to be only $3M.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 2, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe he means $12MM out of the total $45MM left owed?
by soup du jour on Dec 2, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
ah…hopefully.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 2, 2009 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
Why would we go after Lee if we already had Mclouth, Heyward, Cameron, Diaz, and Schafer?
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by Scott Coleman on Dec 2, 2009 11:33 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bay’s fielding isn’t that bad at present, its passable and probably slightly better than GA’s. Where he plays is known to badly skew defensive metrics. The issue with Bay is how much athleticism will he lose in the next 3 or 4 years. I think its a win now move but I’d be worried about how Bay defensively starting in year 3. However, I think Bay everyday in the 4 hole makes us legitimate world series contenders for at least the next two years, as opposed to many of the other ideas being floated about.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
by jeg on Dec 3, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
There’s no way on God’s green earth that Gonzo will take arbitration. You don’t hire Scott Boras in your walk year to get a good arbitration number, you hire him to get your maximum value on the open market. Worse case scenario is if Soriano accepts arbitration and the Braves end up with one guy being a relatively expensive 8th inning guy, but even that wouldn’t be so bad considering the talent level involved with both guys. Good move by Wren but I won’t celebrate till its official (learned that lesson from Furcal last year).
Not this.
You are forgetting salary reality. If Soriano accepts arbitration, we will have to dump him for no return to rid ourselves of the salary (Millwood type trade). In arbitration, Soriano would make $7 million or so, which would probably put our total bullpen salaries in the $15-20 million range. On our payroll, we can’t sustain that.
i think its fine
considering the market and not wanting to go too long with a guy i think the deal the perfect. we were actually paying soriano 6mil or something like that this year so its basically replacing soriano’s contract. I personally think we could sign a couple of low cost high upside arms for the cost of gonzo’s 3.75 mil he made. Maybe Calero and Saito? although i would like another lefty and someone pointed out Darren Oliver
by drumzalicious on Dec 2, 2009 3:25 AM EST up reply actions
Good
PROS:
- He’s an All-Star
- He’s a proven winner
- Post-season experience
- 11.8K/9 for career (better than Soriano&Gonzo…and better ERA than those two)
- Will be 5th in career saves and needs 40 for 4th and to be greatest LHRP of all-time
- He’s fun to watch. It will be an honor to have him wear a Braves uniform
- His agent is Bean Stringfellow
CONS:
- He will be 38 next year
- Only pitched 15 (lights-out) innings last year
Overall, @ $7M, he is a good pickup. He will be cheaper than Soriano and doesnt tie our hands with a long term contract for a closer (Gonzo). Gives Kimbrel a year or two more to work out the bugs.
I’m pretty darned excited about this. Wags has long been a favorite of mine. Class act when it comes to dealing with the fans, not afraid to speak his mind. And I love the option that would actually LOWER his salary if he stays healthy enough to finish 50 games.
I also wonder if Wags can’t be a REALLY important influence on Craig Kimbrel. They’re both undersized fireballers. The numbers Wags put up in his minor league days (granted, as a starter) are somewhat relevant to Kimbrel’s. In ‘94 (A) and ’95 (AA, AAA) tallied 159 BB in 299 1/3 IP, a rate of .531 BB per IP. In his two seasons in the Braves’ system Kimbrel has walked 60 in 95 1/3 IP or .629 BB per IP. Wags went on to become, in his prime (say ‘01-’05 when he cut his rate to .26 BB per IP) ,a ridiculously good control pitcher. If he can help Craig harness his stuff…say .33-.4 BB per IP, well, let’s just say I’m hoping for added dividends.
"Why do they sing 'Take Me Out To The Ballgame' when they're already there?'" - Larry Andersen
Yea
someone on DoB’s blog pointed that out as well. I think this almost certifies that Kimbrel will be brought up prob half way through the season.
by drumzalicious on Dec 2, 2009 3:33 AM EST up reply actions
I hope when I arrive at Spring Training in February I see Kimbrel attached to Wags’ hip. Work with him all spring, let him get some time to use what he learns in AAA and have him up by June. Yeah… I like that. :)
"Why do they sing 'Take Me Out To The Ballgame' when they're already there?'" - Larry Andersen
But
i hate to be a stickler, but the giving up of a 1st round pick in a VERY deep draft is slightly troubling now that i think about it.
if, say, Gonzo and Soriano are signed by teams that are in the top-15, then it’s a moot point b/c we’ll basically be trading our pick now for two lower ones. That is very New England Patriots of us. Not to mention to two supplemental picks we’ll receive.
Yet, if they BOTH happen to accept, I’d say we’d HAVE to not tender Lowe a contract b/c of $ issues.
Yet, I’m more concerned about the amount of talent we could not be drafting in this very deep draft.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Dec 2, 2009 4:45 AM EST reply actions
Love the timing.
We offer arbitration to Gonzo and Soriano, then a couple hours later tell them , “oh BTW, we’ve got a closer.” They’re both far less likely to accept when they know the 9th is nailed down.
what a move
we give up a first round pick to replace the two guys we can get picks for…. looks like we’ll end up with TWO first round picks in next years draft… here’s hoping the royals and the nationals pick up these guys lol
We won't get first round picks for either in all likelihood.
Royals and Nationals have protected picks, we would only get their second-rounders. (The first 15 picks are protected.) The Red Sox could sign Gonzo, but (A) why? and (B) we only get their second-rounder if they sign Holliday as well. The Yankees could, but they have the last pick in the first round. The number of teams who would realistically give us their first round pick is very small. Since we didn’t offer arbitration to LaRoche, we will probably end up with two supplemental round picks and three second round picks. It is supposed to be a deep draft, but I’d love to have the 20th pick in such a draft.
People making too big of a deal about
Gonzo and Soriano accepting arbitration. IF and thats a big if either of them accept arbitration then trade them for a bat. Either of them would be a lot more appealing to most teams than Lowe.
I love Wagner don’t get me wrong, but I feel like the market this year will prove to be pretty unforgiving this year for free agents. Given that he was a type a, I feel like a lot of teams would have shied away from him, and could have maybe been had for cheaper
Call me a devil’s advocate, but I’m a Giants fan too, and we got burned last year when Sabean came out of the gates signing Edgar Renteria, Jeremy Affedlt, and Bob Howry. It seemed like good ideas at the time, and then we found out that we could have had Orlando Hudson and Juan Cruz for pennies on the dollar because the market never developed and because teams stayed away from both players and their type a status.
I mean, how crummy are we going to feel if Valverde, Gonzalez, and/or Soriano sign for comparable or even less money (I know, unlikely, but Hudson and Cruz were considered the top 2 at their respective positions last year, and had to settle for crummy, undervalued short term contracts)
Like I said, I love Wagner and I love my Braves. I’m just afraid too much money was spent to make this happen, given the draft picks we’re giving up. I guess time will tell on this one, and I definatly hope that I’m wrong.
Let’s resign LaRoche and flip Lowe. Looking forward to a great 2010. Go Braves!
Agree w/ this. Feel like the Wagner deal is an overpay, especially the vesting player option for 2011. Not thrilled with the signing, but I’ll trust Wren.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Wagner will get slightly less than what Soriano would get were he to come back via arbitration (which won’t happen). The option only vests if Wagner is healthy enough that he FINISHES 50 games. Not works in 50 games, FINISHES them. If he isn’t healthy enough, well, tough break but it’s not like Soriano has been Ripken-esque by any stretch of the imagination. Better yet, we are, worst case, only locked in to our current closer for two seasons, as opposed to the three-four it’ll take to keep Gonzo and/or Soriano. Even in the unlikely event that Gonzo/Soriano sign for less money it’ll be for longer deals. If Wags doesn’t work out we can cut bait after one season. Anyone prefer to bank on three or four healthy seasons from Soriano the way Bobby used him?
And all that said…I’m tired of ‘cobbling together a bullpen’. Gimme a freakin’ closer. Wags is a CLOSER. Cue ‘Enter Sandman’.
"Why do they sing 'Take Me Out To The Ballgame' when they're already there?'" - Larry Andersen
You act as if the only choices were Soriano, Wags, and Gonzo. And perhaps if you need a “proven closer” in the 9th, they are. But in my view there are plenty of excellent RPs that would not have cost the Braves over $20M (assuming the option vests).
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
I like you.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 2, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks, but I’m hoping that’s a line from some movie I don’t know.
Otherwise, it just seems a little creepy.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
it was a mentally distorted way of saying that I agree with what you wrote.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 2, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
The approx. $5.5M estimated value of a 1st round draft pick.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-one/
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
FTA:
the most reasonable projection for the value of Type A draft picks would be something between $3-5 million
Average of that is 4 mil, not 5.5, and given that the number 20 pick we gave up is bottom half of the round, it’s realistically closer to 3.7 or so. But even then, how many first round picks gets tons of hype and don’t pan out? When you consider that all draft picks are a gamble to a degree and we will be recouping picks from Soriano and Gonzo, I think any detracted value you try to derive from the pick we gave up is negligible at worst, and nonexistent at best.
Actually, it would be closer to 5.5.
Remember that picks 1-15 cannot be Type A compensation draft picks. Therefore, we are giving up the fifth best pick that could be given up, not the 20th best.
We're giving up pick 20 in the draft either way...
and do you “sell” a pick for straight cash? They cost you that much, and may or may not actually make your 40 man roster, let alone actually produce on the big stage.
They certainly are not the only choices. Valverde is out there, but I find it equally unlikely that he’ll sign for less money, and certainly not for as little as one year. Rodney and Gregg are out there, but I can’t say I feel fabulous about either one of them (Gregg actually makes me nauseous).
And I agree, there are some decent (I would hesitate to use the term ‘excellent’) arms out there. Kiko Calero intrigues me. Bradford, Lyon, Park, Saito, Weaver, Beimel…heck I’d kick the tires on Chad Cordero just to see if there’s anything left there.
Relief pitchers and closers in particular tend to have short shelf lives. Given the combination of dollars / necessary years, as well as having confidence in who goes to the mound in the ninth I have zero issue with bringing in Wags.
And yeah…as mentioned below, help me out with the math. 2010 at $7M, vesting option (which, again, only happens if he’s healthy/effective) for 2011 at $6.5M.
"Why do they sing 'Take Me Out To The Ballgame' when they're already there?'" - Larry Andersen
I have trouble spending $7M on a “proven closer” and would rather find that 9th inning guy on the cheap, as the Braves did a few years ago with Soriano. I’ve advocated trying to pick up Wuertz or Masset to take a shot at the role next year. I also believe Kerry Wood would be available on the cheap, and of course Medlen could easily close, as likely could Calero or Benoit, if they’re signed.
On a team that has significant offensive problems and needs to at least a 1B and probably an OF who can hit/field, spending significant resources on Wagner seems excessive to me.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
Really? Signing Renteria, Affeldt, and Howry seemed like a good idea at the time? I don’t keep up with the Giants closely, but they seemed like bad moves at the time to me. Especially Renteria.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Believe it or not, most people here in the Bay weren’t that pissed about the Renteria signing (embarrisingly enough, I was one of them). We were just coming off a mendoze line season from Omar Vizquel, so a middle infielder with 10-15 hr power and, at the time, respectable defense, didn’t seem like that bad of a deal for 9mm. Both Affedlt and Howry turned in strong performances (specifically Affeldt) and deserved their contracts. I know, we’re all embarressed. Not as embarressed as the Barry Zito or Aaron Rowand signings made us, though…(for the record, I was anti Zito and pro Rowand at the time).
Pro-Renteria and pro-Rowand, huh? Not so sure you want to admit that… ;-)
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
I’ve always been baffled by how the Giants run things. They always sign older free agents for too much money. I remember one year it seemed like the average age of their lineup was 42. Of course, they’ve done a lot to get some great young players, especially pitchers, the last few years, so hopefully that’s changing for them. I’m looking forward to seeing their AA team in Richmond this coming year, just cause i never get to see any Giants on the way up.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Agreed. The philosophy is starting to change now, though, which is nice. Moving towards youth a little more. I still think a bigger problem is the lack of emphasis on speed, defense, and OBP. With a big field like we have, it seems like those 3 things would be a priority. I almost got eaten alive for proposing a Juan Pierre for Aaron Rowand deal
Gotta admit, giving up Alderson for Freddy Sanchez just seems insanely stupid to me.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Ridiculous…I thought resigning him was worse. Giants have no concept of sunken cost. Everyone kept saying “we need to resign him…we have up alderson” …Alderson is gone either way at this point, why not put the best 9 on the field.
That’s a great point. Maybe spread that one around to a few folks who still lament the Teixera trade.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Maybe I’m missing something, but I lament that trade and fail to see the application. We wanted to resign Tex, yes, but because he was an elite offensive threat we wanted to hold on to, not because we felt we had to to justify the prospects we’d given up (I’d still hold we gave up too much even if we’d eventually resigned him, we got fleeced- the only thing that would have eased my mind on this was if we had still gotten some sort of value out of flipping Tex, rather than getting stuck with Crotchman). Sanchez, on the other hand, is the definition of “meh.” Resigning him is much less an act of holding on to an elite player and more desperation.
See the part about sunken cost and moving on.
Also, using Crotchman makes me instantly not want to discuss things, because it will undoubtedly be pointless.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Yeah yeah...
it was still a bad trade. But I didn’t respond here for a reason. We’ve hashed that crap out enough to wait until at least January before we dive back into that septic tank.
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