The Dominoes are falling (Lackey/Halliday/Cameron)
by carpengui on Dec 14, 2009 3:21 PM EST
Email
PrintMultiple reports are putting John Lackey in Boston for "AJ Burnett" kinda numbers (~5yrs., ~$85 million). He is said to be in Boston for a physical today.
Meanwhile, the more interesting deal from the Braves perspective is the report that Halliday's agent is in Philadelphia for the purpose of negotiating a long-term contract extension for the Blue Jays' ace. The report (heard on XM radio from other sources) puts Halliday in Philadelphia with Cliff Lee perhaps going to a third (unnamed) team. Apparently, Lee is not cooperating enough with the Phillies in getting a long-term deal for him (Lee is signed through 2010). Clearly, if the extension discussion is underway, then Toronto would have already signed off on a Halliday deal. From the perspective of the Braves, I'd have to know what else is going on with this deal, but if it's effectively a Lee-for-Halliday swap, then it's a 'no real harm done' deal. The worst-case scenario for Atlanta would be if both pitchers were in the Phillies rotation for 2010, but that appears not to be the case.
Also: Matsui to the Angels... one year, about $6.5 million.
No words about Lowe at this time, but presumably, he would be next on the list.
UPDATE: Another domino has fallen: AP reports that Mike Cameron has signed with Boston. (7:53pm, MLBTR). Ken Rosenthal adds that "the Deal is in the range of $15.5MM for two years." Interesting numbers.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
188 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
If Lackey signs with Boston and Halladay goes to the Phillies, I could see us a getting a decent return for Lowe. The Mariners and Angels will get involved and I would think we could start at a player plus a prospect and take all his salary.
First obvious question: where does Cliff Lee go?
…and the answer I DON’T want to hear is “the Angels”. Not sure who can pay him. The Mets? Not likely given it’s the same division. Seattle? They have the money, and this would get them set in pitching. Even as I type this, the XM Radio guys are thinking the same team.
Meanwhile: Major League baseball has not granted the Phillies permission yet to begin this negotiation with Halliday…. yet. But this new report does not dispute the rest of the story above.
The Mariners have an interest in Lee so the Mariners could be the third team between the Blue Jays and the Phillies
The Spanish Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Dec 14, 2009 4:00 PM EST reply actions
Heyman tweets there is a three way deal between the M’s, Blue Jays and Phils. Lee to M’s and Halladay to the Phils. Pff i am curious what the Blue Jays will receive.
Happ, Morrow? anyone?
by Dutch Braves Fan on Dec 14, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
As posted this in a Fan Post, I still think that this will be great situation though the down side is that if we get Holladay to the phillies with Lee going else where would be a big set back though we just let KK set up to face him evertime to be all right but the phillies will be in the win now mode and would be a great Fight to see the next acouple of years to see who will end up winning the East…… Though this situation give a situation where we be forced to could get Halliday in the high bid to meet the Holladay trade by philly. It makes it interesting the next several days….
Can someone explain to me why the Phillies would be willing to part with at least 2 very good prospects for Halladay and then also give up Lee. Halladay is a very good pitcher but he is 32 years old and a free agent after next season. I know the Phillies wouldn’t do this deal without signing Halladay to an extension but why not just pay Lee to stay around. Lee is a year younger and doesn’t have nearly as many innings on his arm, Halladay has 2046.2 innings while Lee has 1196.2. I know Halladay is a better pitcher but going off market value this year he is probably going to want something around 5 years $90M. They could probably sign Lee for 5 years at $75M.
Then you throw in the prospects their giving up, Happ and either Taylor or Brown. Seems to me that their giving up a lot and not improving all that much.
I assume they are giving up a little more.
If all of the prospects are coming from Seattle, then why wouldn’t they just trade for Halladay?
When the story first broke I heard that Happ and either Taylor or Brown were going to Toronto. I’m not sure who Seattle is giving up in the deal.
Thats a steal if thats all the Phills are givin up. Taylor and Brown look nice and Happ is Happ, im not sold on this guy yet, i think he will turn into a #4 starter with who knows about Taylor or Brown. I know Halladay is gonna get a big fat contract as well but the guy is great, i would even argue better than Santana WHEN healthy. And yes i realize they are givin up Lee as well but this is Halladay we are talkin about, if Phills can get it done with somethin like this then great job Phills and the NL Champs just got a WHOLE lot better…
braves#1
I disagree.
The Phillies are downgrading prospect-wise (they aren’t getting any of the Mariners’s few good prospects) and making a lateral pitching move. For this year, it is a slight upgrade for the Phillies and for the next few years (however long the extension is) they get a great pitcher. But they gave up a good haul in prospects for that privilege. I think the deal is okay, but not great for the Phillies, a solid haul to Toronto for Halladay, and an absolute steal for the Mariners.
yeah we wont agree on this but i do agree about surprised that the Mariners didn’t have to end up givin up more in the deal, i think Phillies should have demanded another nice spec but oh well i guess, Aumont is a pretty damn good spec himself he has a chance to become a very nice pitcher in the future.
braves#1
The only thing that would make any sense is that Lee is either after an even bigger contract or… he hates Philadelphia for some reason.
Because The Phils can negotiate with Halliday NOW, instead of waiting to make a deal with Lee after the season. They would be guaranteed Docs contract before making the deal and sign him for 3-4 years, rather than just have Lee for the year
I thought hurricane season was over........
by bravesguy311 on Dec 14, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
True, but Lee could want to test the market. Halliday is basically offering the extension right now, whereas with Lee, they might not have the option…
I thought hurricane season was over........
by bravesguy311 on Dec 14, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
Because they are very short-sighted.
This move is GREAT for Atlanta.
It ups Philly’s payroll by $12M (Halladay at $20M vs Lee at $8M) without adding too much in terms of talent. Halladay isn’t THAT much better than Lee.
Plus, other reports indicate that Philly is giving up quite a haul in prospects, including Happ.
I don’t think this could be any better for Atlanta!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
Great for Atlanta? Wow thats kinda funny but i respect your opinion. So what if it ups the Phillies payroll i mean wtf do they NOT have??? If they do this then they will have GREAT SP, good bullpen(last i checked) speed, contact, power, they have it all. So so what if it ups their payroll, if they can afford it then great for them. Halladay IS better than Lee plain and simple. And so what if they are dealin Happ, the guy spent 2 years in AAA for a reason i think he is very overated and will come down to earth and be a #4 type starter. Kyle Kendrick looked solid in MLB a few years back as well, and he sucks. Is Happ better than Kendrick? Sure he is, he actually strikes guys out but i still think this guy is vastly overrated and his stock is at the ABSOLUTE highest it will ever be in my opinion the Phillies would be extremely smart to deal him. Sure i could be very very wrong about him but i just dont like the guy i dont think he is all that good, gettin Halladay would be fantastic for the Phillies, it would make them the best in the NL by far unless they get unlucky with lots of injuries.
braves#1
I think the downside is the Phils are a team made up of guys in their late 20s early 30s and won’t potentially be able to resign all of them.
To me, the Phils have a window. They don’t have a Heyward or a Hanson. If they are going to string together championships, it has to be now. In a couple years a number of their players will be past their prime or moving on to greener pastures.
All the more reason the Braves have to get a bat. We can pitch with most teams, but I don’t think we are going to beat Philly facing Halladay five times a season.
even if we get a bat its gonna be insanely hard to win this division unless they have a bunch of guys underperform and or injuries happen to that team.
braves#1
I’m not worried. We beat them soundly a couple of times last season and I think won the season series handidly.
Mainly because we struggled against the Marlins and the Natinals…not to mention the Reds and other sucky teams.
Our interleague schedule isn’t as brutal this coming year either.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
We still didn’t win the division no matter what the excuse and this will ONLY make the Phillies better…
braves#1
So, (according to the latest rumors) losing Happ, Blanton and Lee somehow makes the Phillies better? Those are their 3 best pitchers from last season. Halladay is not worth all 3 of those guys.
And nobody made any excuses about losing the division.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
How does losing Happ and Lee for Halladay make their rotation great?
It weakens their rotation, and will cost them long term. It doesn’t increase their payroll, according to the reports I read, as they want to keep the same payroll as last year. That means they will be taking money and paying more for Halladay than they did for Lee.
Happ may or may not regress, but the bottom line there is all of us were expecting him to regress this past season, and he never did.
What makes their rotation so great? They have Halladay. Who after that? Hammels? After his 2009, I wouldn’t be too concerned about him at all.
This is a very shortsighted move by Philly. Sure, Halladay may be better than Lee in 2010, but what about 2011? 2012? 2013? 2014? He is expected to get a 5 year deal.
Fireballers like Halladay rarely pitch into their late 30s with any of the same effectiveness that they did in their prime. I would expect some regression from Roy in the next few years.
I love this deal from a Braves’ perspective. It handcuffs the Phillies, they lose their top prospects and some of their best young players, and it sets a market for Lowe.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
Like i said im not big on Happ so i dont personally think thats a big deal right there… And who cares if it costs them longterm, they are in WIN now mode, they have a team that has about 3-5 year window to win championships go for it is what i say. And thats fine if you “love” the deal for the Braves perspective, we will see if you are singin the same tune durin the season…
braves#1
Either way you slice it, their rotation won’t be as good as it was last year, and they are mortgaging their future for now. That is great news. This is just like when the Mets brought in Santana.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
Unfortuantely we are tryin to win now as well with Vaz, Chipper, a cheap Heap, a cheap Escobar, Wagner a aging Closer, i mean we are goin for it now as well so its not great news about this no matter how you wanna slice it either…
braves#1
I think you may be the only person here who thinks that way…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Let’s see what the Phils actually end up giving away. The BEST scenario for them is Halladay for Lee and no other changes in the rotation. And if that’s the case, you could easily argue that it’s a wash.
for 2010 yes….for anything beyond that? We’ll see.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
The trade makes sense for the Phillies...
…but I think it is fairly neutral for them. They get a slight upgrade from Lee to Halladay. They also get to keep Halladay for three more years while Lee was going to bolt after 2010. For the slight upgrade and the privilege of paying Halladay $20 million per year for 2011-2013, they gave up two of their top three prospects (but kept their best, Brown) and got lesser prospects from the Mariners. I still think the Phillies did okay, Toronto got a solid haul for Halladay and the Mariners made out like bandits.
Don't fear Halladay
just throw Kenshin the Dragon-slayer at him every time and we’ll be fine
"Sometimes I wonder what'd it be like to be outside and not hear the birds chirping...I think it'd be kind of nice."
by alligatorimpersonator on Dec 14, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
good bullpen? I know Lidge isn’t their only reliever but the fact that they stuck with him for so long makes me question that. Madson and Romero are nice arms but who else is there? And with Lee heading out their SP isn’t that great, yes Halladay and Hamels could represent a devestating one-two or at least a good one but beyond that you see names like Blanton which shouldn’t be feared
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
Could have been alot goin on for them to have stuck with him so long. I mean he didn’t blow no saves last year, he was great and great in the playoffs as well, i think Charlie thought he owed him somethin by stickin with him longer. We will see how good their bullpen will be, they could end up with a lights out bullpen, bullpens changes year to year so we will see…
braves#1
This plays in our favor
Halladay replacing Lee in Philly is no big deal. I agree, having Halladay and Lee in the same rotation would be a little scarier. But come on, besides Halladay, the Phillies have nothing to back him up. JA Happ was good, but I think the league is going to figure him out next time around (granted he isn’t moved), Hamels isn’t what he used to be, and Joe Blanton is just average. Then there’s Moyer, once again, just average.
More importantly though, this gives us room to deal Lowe and free up much needed salary. Maybe now we can even make a play for Holliday or Bay, let’s be honest, adding one of those two to our lineup should make us look a whole lot better on paper than the Phillies, even with Halladay.
The reason for the deal is...
…Halladay wants an extension, Lee won’t even talk about one, and the Phillies can’t afford to keep both. The payroll is pretty high there already.
ah crap
apparently there are some reports that its J.A. Happ and not Lee.
If so that would suck. Halladay, Lee and Hammels . . . . ugh
Well, hang on a sec...
“3:56pm: Rosenthal and Morosi write that pitcher Phillippe Aumont of the Mariners and “possibly” outfielder Michael Taylor of the Phillies are among the players heading to Toronto in the trade. They add that outfielder Michael Saunders and pitcher Brandon Morrow are “in play.” The FOX duo confirms an agreement is in place to send Halladay to the Phillies and Lee to the Mariners."
i mean its gonna be a lot of foolishness until its announced officially
by drumzalicious on Dec 14, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
Hammels does not concern me at all.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure why he does’t but ok whatever you say we will see you are singin the same tune durin the season, he had one bad year so what, so did Lee in Cleveland back in 2007…
braves#1
Lee has a better track record than Hamels does. Lee pitched great in the AL. Hamels is a one hit wonder, IMO. That isn’t to say that he isn’t a decent pitcher. He just is not the top of the line starter that he looked like he may be in 08.
He has had one really good season, one decent season and 2 sub-par seasons.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
I just think its a damn good deal for the Phillies gettin the BEST SP in the game WHEN healthy and then not to give up on Hamels, i just think its ridiculous to give up on him and he is actin like Happ is all that but yet Happ is 1 year older than Hamels is lol, in my opinion Hamels is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy better than Happ without a doubt in my mind but hey its his opinion just like this is my opinon only time will truly tell.
braves#1
I never said Happ was all that. I also never said I am “giving up” on Hamels, whatever that means.
I said Hamels is not a front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher and shouldn’t be anything to worry about.
After Halladay, that rotation is very sketch.
Just about every one of our current starters would be their #2 with the exception of possibly KK – who just happened to beat the best the game had to offer last season on multiple occasions.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
you just said Hamels does not concern you at all and i think he is a front of the rotation starter but hey thats my opinion.
braves#1
I don’t get it.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
all i said is you said Hamels does not concern you at all, i just happen to think he is a front of the rotation starting pitcher. And its just my opinion about that though lol.
braves#1
On that point, we are in agreement.
Hamels’s peripherals last year were not bad at all. He is still a stud if he stays healthy. 2008 was a bit over his head, but he should be better than 2009 going forward.
haha
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
Lee has a better track record? Cliff was mediocre up until 2008 when things suddenly clicked, he had a track record all right but not one anyone was envious of
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
He was not great in 07, but in the 2 or 3 years prior to that he was pretty good, and he had the great year in 08 and another good year in 09. That is tons better than Hamels’ 1 good year, 1 decent year and 1 bad year.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
My bad I was reading quickly and I thought you meant prior to his breakout 08, at this point yeah he’s more of a known quantity but his last two seasons no one could have predicted. I don’t think Hamels will ever live up to the expectations they placed on him in Philly but I still think he’s a very valuable 3 type starter, possible number 2
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
Hamels is still good.
His 2009 was actually pretty good and relatively unlucky. His peripherals were still very solid. He was never really as good as he looked in 2008 or as bad as he looked in 2009. Still a very good #2 anyway you slice it. Injury concerns are still there, but if healthy he shoudl rebound this year with decent luck.
Halladay’s extension appears to be for 3 years and $60M at least one option year.
The Blue Jays would receive Phillies catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud, Dominic Brown, and possibly Michael Saunders and from the Mariners possibly Brandon Morrow and Phillippe Aumont. The Phillies would recieve just Roy Halladay and the Mariners would receiver Cliff Lee.
That is all I’ve been able to gather right now I’m sure we’ll know more later.
I admit I'm a little surprised...
… that the Phillies apparently don’t have to give up somebody named Happ, Hamels, or Drabek. Granted, they are effectively only swapping pitchers, but Toronto was supposed to be “overwhelmed” with prospects to give Roy H.
Nonetheless, my take on this deal is (a) not much difference in the NL East for Atlanta, as the braves have one of the few rotationsin baseball that can say “Bring it on!” and (b) Getting any Halliday deal done means that it’s time for the suitors to line up in Frank Wren’s phone queue… and the Angels should be getting especially nervous with what Seattle is doing.
These are just players rumored to be in the deal I’m sure there will be someone else in the deal. Aumont was the Mariners 7th rated prospect, D’Arnaud is the Phillies 4th prospect, Brown is their number 1 prospect and Saunders is the Mariners number 1 prospect.
Possible update to the trade list
“6:55pm: J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton took physicals and could be a part of the deal, writes Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press. Domonic Brown also took a physical today, who is said to be coveted by the Jays.”
Wow, Blanton, Happ and Lee all for Halladay? How dumb can Philly’s front office be?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
not to mention and additional $12M…and their top prospect???
Seriously? How can anyone who is a fan of the Braves not love this deal?
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
this is too good to be true, mlbtraderumors has drabek in the deal as well. if they deal drabek and lee for halladay, i will lose it
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Just imagine: your biggest rival gets arguably the best pitcher in the AL and you’re GIDDY with excitement over what that does to HELP your team. Go figure.
he’s a marginal upgrade over Lee and I can guarantee you that he won’t replicate Lee’s half season of pure dominance. Not to mention theyre giving up top prospects and paying 12 million more, sure it hurts when we have to go up against halladay but they could have basically just signed lackey for the difference in contracts (not saying theyd do it or its the best move). There were a lot better ways to allocate those resources
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
Lee didn't have a half season of pure dominance.
He was fantastic in August, and threw the one shutout in September. His ERA for his other 5 September/October starts? 7.72. So if by “half-season” you mean “month,” then yeah, I have to go ahead and disagree. Doc is more than capable of churning out a dominant month at any given time.
look at the stats before going off of something as base as reputation and then we can have an actual discussion, you’re point over and over again has been that Halladay is the best in baseball. Based on what criteria though?
by McCann's the Man on Dec 15, 2009 2:48 AM EST up reply actions
Well if you dont think he is then sorry but we cant really have a discussion. Career numbers go look that up instead of just last year for Lee but think what you want.
braves#1
You might want to check out Lee in 2008.
I think he did something like win the AL Cy Young or other trivial matter. It’s not like Lee is a one-year wonder. Halladay is safer and an upgrade. Just not a massive upgrade.
Never said Halladay wasn't better.
I just said that it wasn’t a “massive upgrade” while you said that the trade made the Phillies “so” much better and the “so” had a whopping 24 "o"s in it. I don’t mind this deal for the Phillies, although I think they would have done better to just keep the Mariners part of the trade out of it. That would have been scary.
well sometimes i might get carried away with the soooooo’s lol but i still think the deal makes them a good bit better and i guess they had to deal Lee cause they couldn’t afford both Halladay and Lee this year, but i am surprised they couldn’t deal Lee and get more specs out of it.
braves#1
I don't get it at all.
The Lee part of the deal that is. I understand the money being an issue, but he was only about $9 million. They could have just dumped Blanton and saved $7 million. It seems strange they couldn’t make a way to get Lee’s salary to fit.
I agree man
thats the only part of the deal that i think they blew, Lee is worth way more than Aumont, i cant believe another team wouldn’t deal a stud spec or 2-4 real good specs for the guy, or like you said just kept Lee and tried to just practically give Blanton away. Thats the only part i have scratchin my head.
braves#1
lol im not talkin about just half a season. Halladay has had a longer proven record pitchin in that dominant East, i think thats enough to consider him better than Lee. I do agree its odd that they didn’t just give in and do that package to the Blue Jays last year, i think it was pretty much the same exact package so that is a bit strange instead of dealin specs to the Indians for Lee then seemingly not gettin true value for Lee but hey it happened. I still think this deal makes Phillies better for the next 2-4 years with acquiring Halladay.
braves#1
I think this didn’t happen last year because Toronto would not allow Philly to discuss an extension with Halladay. This year, under new management, they allowed that.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 15, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
You can’t just keep disagreeing with everyone and say “that’s just my opinion, and it’s ok to have a different opinion.”
We get that your opinion is that Halladay is far and away the greatest pitcher in the game today. What we want to know is why do you think that?
Halladay is not THAT (and by THAT I mean $12M, 3 top prospects and one of your best SP) better than Lee.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 15, 2009 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Well technically i can keep sayin this is just my opinion because it is and what you just said is YOUR opinion as well.
“Halladay is not THAT (and by THAT I mean $12M, 3 top prospects and one of your best SP) better than Lee.”
Ok after this season it wont be no $12 mil difference, Lee will be gettin his payday as well, that Catching spec is a guy who could or may not be good you never know about A ball catchers. Taylor looks nice i admit that but we will see. Drabek is good as well but if i could deal a young spec pitcher that may or may not be good for a great pitcher like Halladay thats a no brainer, and then they are gettin a very nice pitching spec in Aumont that is very young in return. Halladay track record and him pitchin in the AL East is enough for me to say and think that he is better and a very smart move for Phillies.
braves#1
Aumont is at most a bullpen arm...
…and not a great prospect any more. He has a degenerative hip condition.
We’re predicting performance for 2010 and considering Lee is not the same pitcher he was pre 2007 (i believe he added a new pitch or something) it’s somewhat pointless to put too much stock into career numbers, based off 08-09 this is a minimal upgrade
by McCann's the Man on Dec 15, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
you gotta remember no one is excited about halladay being a philly but i’d much sooner let them have halladay than lee, drabek, and happ/brown/taylor, and d’arnaud which could very well be the trade
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
So far, MLBTR has Happ, Lee, Blanton, Drabek and D’Arnaud in the deal…it really does just get better and better.
If I were a Phillies fan right now, I would be extremely pissed off!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
not to mention going for polanco over beltre, not a great offseason for philly
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
Well, let's just ask their phans....
The trade discussion post on ‘The Good Phight’ is up over 400 posts now… and you’re right. Here’s a sampling:
" That is a king’s ransom we’re giving up. I am loathe to believe it."
“Ruben Amaro shouldn’t be fired if that happens; he should be shot.”
“Every rumor gets worse and worse for the phillies…like PhillyFriar said above, this isn’t passing the smell test.”
“With every passing rumor, this deal just keeps getting worse and worse.” (that’s a different guy)
"No one’s called me in 15 minutes! Think I should include Drabek, to make sure they’re still interested?"
“I hate this trade so much now!”
Overall, it looks like 50% of the Philly phans are ready to commit murder; 25% are in denial; and the other 25% are praying that there’s a lot of misinformation out there about who they’re giving up.
It looks like that last 25% may get their wish…Jayson Stark says Drabek but not Happ is in the deal.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
Man. Why not just make this trade at the deadline if you are going to give up all those players NOW?
What did the M’s throw in to make this work? It looks like, by and large, this is the same crowd that Toronto wanted in July.
i don’t know specifics, or the M’s system, but it looks like they are giving up prospects only.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
And not their best ones.
They make out like bandits.
Because Accardi was an idiot.
The Phillies want Halladay over Lee because he will sign an extension that isn’t a free market type 6 or 7 year deal. Last year at the deadline, then Toronto GM Accardi refused to allow the Phillies to negotiate an extension with Halladay before a trade was made. Accardi got canned, new Toronto GM is smarter, deal looks like it will go down.
lol
Ummmmm i think i remember 85% of the Braves fans hatin the Vaz deal when it was almost complete and when it first got finalized…
braves#1
Flowers for Vaz is nothing like this. Don’t even try to make that comparison.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 15, 2009 10:23 AM EST up reply actions
Why cant i make that comparison??? We ended up gettin a SP that at the time Braves didn’t like and didn’t care about this deal for us, then after time Braves fans got used to it and was fine with it. Thats a fair comparison on how at first Phillies may hate the deal but then be like hmmm… pretty damn good move, so yeah thats a very fair comparison whether YOU agree with it or not.
braves#1
*Ignorant Braves fans didn’t like at the time
^Fixed.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 15, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Ignorant may be too strong of a word, but yes…the people who looked at more than ERA and W/L knew exactly what we were getting in return and thought it was a very good trade at the time.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
soooo big Big Joe and guys like that are ignorant Braves fan huh? Granted he does say alot that i dont agree with but i dont think he is a “ignorant Braves fan”. could be wrong though :D
braves#1
Ignorant is too strong of a word, yes.
I don’t recall Large Joseph disapproving of that one.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 15, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
also one reason i used him is i mean i think he dissapproves of all the Braves trades when they get done i think thats his job or somethin ;)
braves#1
I think you may be thinking of a different guy.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 15, 2009 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
wait until this thing sorts itself out...
the monster hauls seem outlandish right now. Let’s wait and see just who is going where before jumping for joy. MLBTR is a great site, but it just passes info, some info more reliable than others.
Frank Wren better be on the phone to Anaheim. The Mariners are slowly getting back into playoff form.
Apparently he is...
MLBTR: "MONDAY, 6:06pm: The wait may be nearing its end. Now that they have lost both Lackey to Boston and appear to have missed out on landing Cliff Lee, the Angels have a pitching void to fill. This now means that the Angels are “among the favorites” to acquire the Lowe from the Braves, according to an update in Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi’s blockbuster deal story.
The Halos could offer outfielder Juan Rivera, who the FOX Sports duo says is the type of right-handed run producer Atlanta is seeking."
Could we do much better?
$3.25 million. Hits .285/.331/.470 with low-20’s HR power and actual plate discipline. Oh, and he bats righty.
The Angles just singed Matsui, does that make Rivera tradeable?
by blitzerlover on Dec 14, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
I really don’t think so unless Liberty decided to just screw the idea of a budget and let us go get Holliday but as we know that isn’t happening. Rivera gets on base at a slightly below average clip but good power and defense more than make up for it. Going into 2010 with Rivera, Diaz, and McLouth in our OF and Heyward and possibly even Schafer on their way would be an incredible upgrade from our 09 opening day OF of GA, Francoeur, and Schafer
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
If the Red Sox sign Mike Cameron like some are predicting, where is Holliday going to land?
Why doesn’t Holliday have the nickname “Doc” anyway? That’s a miss.
I still like the Yankees but possibly the Angels, the Mariners depending on how much they have left, and the cards as well would be the contenders
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
Cause Halladay got it first.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
Bay may end up being the guy still standing when the music stops… and he turned down a really good seat.
if his stock plummets, we could end up as a team with money to spend and a spot to offer (depending on what happens with the angels and a lowe trade). While I’ve been against Bay big time (to the tune of 4+years and over 60 million), if his price came down a lot I’d definitely be okay with us bringing him in. Looks like Boston is out, NYY could be out soon, so I guess we’ll see what happens with the Mets and Mariners
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
Five years is a long time when you are talking about a 33 year old outfielder. There aren’t a lot of 38 year old left fielders in the game these days.
which is why I said if his stock plummets I’d be interested if I were Wren as in looking for a 3 year deal not a 4 or 5 year one. Bay has his shortcomings but 3 years 40 million would be a good deal for both sides and our lineup would be scary good, though the OF defense would leave something to be desired
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
His price won't fall that low.
The Mets have already made an offer above that and the pressure is on for them to do something. To beat the Mets offer, we have to offer a deal that wouldn’t be worth it. Let them screw up on this one. ;)
We’ve never really seen, though, whether that new Citi Field will have an adverse effect on getting hitting talent.
It may have an adverse affect...
…but not so adverse that Bay would turn down 4 years/$65 million or so from the Mets to take 3 years/$40 million from us.
Rivera
I don’t get a chance to follow much west coast baseball. What do we know about Rivera?
I’ve been looking into that for exactly the reason you asked the question (‘cuz I didn’t know either). Since Mike Cameron has been getting a lot of interest on this site, I have been comparing the two:
Cameron is 36, Rivera 31
Cameron is faster – 20-30 steals per year; Rivera essentially none.
Defense – hard to measure since the CF position ‘captains’ the OF, but judging from errors, Rivera certainly isn’t doing the LF position any harm.
Batting: Rivera wins by 25 points on average. OBP and slugging are almost identical. I figure the difference in BA is due to Rivera putting the ball in play a lot more (he averages almost 100 fewer strikeouts per year than Cameron).
On paper, I’d take Rivera over Cameron… mostly due to the salary differential ($10m vs. $3m) and age differential.
For comparison...
…I think it is close—-Cameron is a better fielder, and playing center is a difference—-it would let McLouth slide to left where he would be very good. On the other hand, Rivera is younger and cheaper. On the other hand, we have to give the Angels something for Rivera, Cameron was a free agent. Hell, if the Angels gave us Rivera for Lowe I would be thrilled. I’d be happy with Jesse Chavez II if the Angels took all of Lowe’s contract. For Rivera, I’d happily eat $5 million of it.
His page on fangraphs confuses me.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=843&position=OF
In 09 he had a UZR of 11.9, but in the 3 previous years all of his UZRs were negative. How did it change that much over 1 year?
consistent playing time at one position, before he’d been a fourth OF
by McCann's the Man on Dec 14, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
UZR/150 is more helpful. The sample size is a little too low, especially in 07 but in 08 he played a lot in right, where he was pretty awful. In 09 he pretty much just played left, where he is very good.
Long term...
…Diaz will be the odd man out. Short term, Diaz plays right, Rivera play left. Heyward sooner or later takes over in right.
Well if this rumor of Taylor, Drabek, and D’Arnaud and Lee for Halladay and Aumont is correct quite the deal for the Phills. I mean D’Arnaud is far away who knows what he will do, Taylor looks very nice but they still have Brown that could develop as well, Drabek looks nice but i mean we have seen TONS and i mean TONS of young spec SP not do nothin and the Phills got back Aumont a pretty nice SP spec in his and they dealt Lee who is good but got the best pitcher in MLB when healthy. Any Braves fan that is happy about this deal doesn’t know alot about baseball. If we were rebuilding then fine but we are tryin to win at the same time frame as the Phills. Not sayin we cant win in the future either but we are geared up for now big time, this isn’t a good deal if your a Braves fan.
braves#1
you leave out the 12 million difference in halladay and lee which will probably handcuff the rest of their offseason, not that they really need to do much. if you’re philly you have to pray hamels returns to form and happ doesn’t regress because if not then that’s some ugly pitching with no help on the way. Yes they look very good offensively still but it’s not like they’ve improved much over the offseason whereas if we can move Lowe for something useful (say rivera) then we will be greatly improved from the start of last season. Just think about our opening day OF last year. It’s not a bad deal for Philly if that’s what it shakes down to but i’d still consider it grossly overpaying for Halladay by giving up your best pitching prospect and a top 25-50 guy in all of the minors, as well as a good young hitter in taylor though he’s not really needed, and then a guy that is close to Halladay for less than half the price. They could have used those prospects much better
by McCann's the Man on Dec 15, 2009 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
Haven’t we seen plenty of pitching specs not do shit? I know i have, sure Drabek could become a star but he may not also. Aumont isn’t a bad spec himself so to get him is nice for the Phillies. Fact is Halladay when healthy is the best SP in MLB thats bottom line. They gave up Catching spec D’Arnaud who could or may not be good as well, Taylor looks like he might become a good player but that is no guarantee either, i mean they are gettin the BEST SP in MLB when healthy, i mean thats a absolute great deal. Why give up those specs in another deal for a more inferior player? That makes no sense to me but whatever it doesn’t matter, FANTASTIC deal Phillies. I cant stand the Phillies but this makes them soooooooooooooooooooooooo much better, its unbelievable how much better this makes them.
braves#1
That’s an incredibly weak argument. Prospects bust yes but there’s also quite a few that meet or exceed expectations, you don’t just throw them around like worthless commodities which is basically what Philly did. We could have very easily taken this same stance with Hanson and Peavy last year though Drabek isn’t quite a Hanson and Peavy a Halladay. The blunder lies in the misallocation of resources. How is Lee + either the superior prospects or another top of the rotation starter who could be acquired sans including Lee + ~6M not better than Halladay? And before you say best pitcher in the MLB let me remind you that there’s a kid out in San Fran that has that title locked up and if you look at Halladay’s and Lee’s stats there’s no significant difference. In fact Lee has posted a better combined FIP over the past two seasons, best stat for predicting future performance on the mound. Essentially Philly traded Drabek, D’Arnaud, Taylor, plus cash for what will likely amount to a ~.25 difference in ERA. That’s simply insane
by McCann's the Man on Dec 15, 2009 2:45 AM EST up reply actions
First off lets dont be comparin Lince to Halladay ok, sure he is good now but the guy pitches in the NL West, in one of the top 3 pitchers parks in the game and NL not AL East with a DH involved, so slow your roll ;)
And no i never said specs aren’t valuable, but there is just as easily a chance they all go down as they are good, i would gladly give up specs that “COULD” become somethin for a fantastic pitcher, thats a no brainer.
And dude if you wanna be happy and thrilled about this deal then great but when he makes them that much better dont be complainin, they are without a doubt the best team in the NL right now and i see no reason for them not to be unless they get guys to DRASTICALLY underperform and or big time injuries which is very possible.
braves#1
they were already the best team in the NL by far with Lee. Lincecum posted a 2.34 FIP last year, doubt the AL/NL conversion would put that over Halladay’s ~3.05-3.10. And for good measure he posted a 2.62 FIP in 08, Halladay as great as he is isnt a Lincecum but this is just technicalities now
by McCann's the Man on Dec 15, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
I hear ya and thats a damn good argument, not gonna lie. But Lince pitchin in that huge park and in NL West is just a huge difference than a guy pitchin in the AL East against a DH, now we will see how he does in a NL park and see him in top 5 hitters parks in baseball. So we will see if he dominates the NL better than he did in the AL, i have my money on him destroyin the NL…
braves#1
besides predicting failure for the prospects is like predicting an injury for Halladay. hell he could go out in spring training, throw one pitch, and need TJ for all we know, we’ve all seen it happen as you say. It’s all about hedging your bets and balancing risk and reward, the Phillies are risking it big time here by trading away most of their valuable pieces in this past season leaving them with an iffy farm system and are banking on winning it all and soon. The difference (reward) between Lee and Halladay simply isn’t enough to justify that kind of risk imo
by McCann's the Man on Dec 15, 2009 2:56 AM EST up reply actions
A team that never takes risks and saves all their specs is a team that will end up not winnin like they should. A team that takes risks(not always works) has a chance to put their team over the hump and win a championship. Your forgetin Aumont, that guy is a pretty damn good spec, he could end up bein as good or better than Drabek, he has that much potential in my opinion. This is a very good deal for the Phillies, cant believe Braves fans are thrilled about it lol.
braves#1
I don’t think it is so much that Braves fans think that the Phils got a bad deal by getting the best pitcher in the AL. The Phillies just had to give up a lot to get him, including trading their ace. Had the Phillies been able to retain both Lee and Halladay, then you are talking about a monster deal. As it is, you are essentially trading one good pitcher for another and losing some of your best prospects.
The question really is: is Halladay better than Lee? If you think he’s a lot better, then its a win for the Phils. If you think he’s kinda sorta better, then I don’t see how this is a good deal considering what they gave up.
I personally have no problem shipping off your prospects if you need a piece. Right now if you told me that we could package Freddie Freeman to go get Adrian Gonzalez I would say adios to FF.
Please stop hyping Aumont as possibly turning out...
…better than Drabek. He is already relegated to the bullpen due to a gimpy arm. Please also don’t act like Halladay is easily better than Lincecum. Both propositions make you look silly. As I have said numerous times now (and due to reply fails, they’ll probably all end up back to back at the bottom of the thread, lol), this isn’t a bad deal for the Phillies, but is isn’t the massive upgrade you think it is, either. The key to this deal for the Phillies is not 2010. For 2010, Halladay is an upgrade over Lee, but not that big of an upgrade. The key to this deal for the Phillies is 2011-13 when they’ll still have Halladay (albeit at a huge price), when they would have ended up with nothing if they stuck with Lee. So it makes sense to the Phillies to downgrade prospects (getting lesser ones from Seattle than they gave to Toronto) to make 2011-13 better—given that their window to win is the next several years. It wasn’t a steal by any means for the Phillies (like it was for Seattle), but it wasn’t a bad deal that some are saying either.
For the record, to the other side, Toronto is kicking in cash, so no, the Phillies’ payroll is not significantly increasing due to the deal. They were at their max payroll before the deal, so it’s not like they’ll do anything else big anyway. Not that they need to do anything big; all they need at this point is a bullpen arm and they are good to go for 2010.
The part that I like is that Halladay is 33 years old. They will be paying a 36/37 year old pitcher $20M by the end of this…that will handcuff them because most of their bats are coming up on the end of their contracts. By signing Halladay to a deal like this, Philly pretty much guaranteed that they will not keep at least 2 of the Utley/Werth/Howard/Rollins combo.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 15, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
That’s my point. The Phils are really good now, but where is their young talent. Where are then Hansons, Jurrjens, Heywards? Guys that will be called upon to carry the team in five years. They have none of those players.
Great MLB talent right now, but what’s coming down the line?
And that is why I love this trade so much. The Phillies are heading down the Omar Minaya path.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 15, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Read below about what i said about Aumont, and yeah he could be a better pitching spec than Drabek, wasn’t Philip Hughes hyped up wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than Jurrjens? I think he was ;)
And yeah Halladay is better than Lincecum, lets see that dude pitch his entire career in the freakin AL East with the DH, this isn’t even close. I like Lincecum i really do but pitchin in the NL West with a pitcher battin, man not even close with what Halladay has done in his career. Neither make me look silly and its your opinion of that and fine if you think so fine i dont care, they are good arguments on my part but whatever king cavebird lol.
braves#1
prolly shouldn’t have said better pitching spec than Drabek but could become a better MLB pitcher, fixed.
braves#1
Well, crap...
…I could become a better MLB pitcher—-Drabek could die tomorrow, never making the bigs, and some team for a publicity stunt (okay, I am not sure what publicity it would get them, lol) could sign me to pitch an inning (which would never end until the hitters got tired and got out on purpose, lol), making me by default the better MLB pitcher. That could happen.
From me, you get the tone you use.
I was a bit nasty in my post because you stated that any Braves fan who liked the deal didn’t know much about baseball. Even though I am not particularly thrilled about this trade, your tone seemed fairly nasty, so I returned the favor.
I answered your comment about Aumont below.
As for Lincecum v. Halladay, if Halladay is so much better than Lincecum because he pitched in the AL East, shouldn’t the stats that adjust for opponents and ballparks, like adjusted ERA+ show Halladay’s superiority? They don’t. Look, we are talking about two of the top three pitchers in baseball, so the difference is very small, but I side with Lincecum here; his numbers are just a little bit better so far.
Its not like im the first Braves fan to have said that comment. Others on here have said it as well, so whatever.
But anyway im goin with Halladay cause he pitches in the AL East, DH, and Lince pitches in the NL West, top 3 pitchers park in the game and no DH. We wont agree with this but im goin with Halladay, your goin with Lince, fine but no reason to talk about Lince against Halladay no more cause im not changin my stance on it.
braves#1
I haven’t seen it pointed out anywhere on the thread, but Drabek missed a year from Tommy John surgery before, so it’s not like he’s exactly clean medically either.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
No, he isn't medically clean either...
…but if I had to choose between two live arms, one post Tommy John and the other with a degenerative hip condition who has already been moved to the bullpen because of it, my choice is pretty clear.
of course not. Never said that. But i think Aumont has a chance to be a good player. I mean at the moment Drabek is clearly the better spec but in 5 years who will be better? I dont know, prolly Drabek but with pitching specs its a crapshoot like the draft obviously with Drabek in AA you know alot more but injuries and or ineffectiveness can always happen. Bottom line is at the moment obviously i would take Drabek over Aumont and not take twice but if this is what it takes to get a deal done with the Jays for Halladay im all for it. Look at the TIm Hudson deal, we gave up what was a real good pitching spec and last i heard from him i think he was a reliever for the Marlins but never lived up to his potential.
braves#1
You say any Braves fan that is happy about this deal...
…doesn’t know a lot about baseball. Yet in the same post you state that Aumont is “a pretty nice SP” when he has already been converted to relief because his arm couldn’t handle starting. Who is the one who doesn’t know a lot about baseball again?
lol dont pretend like he hasn’t ever started in the minors, so the could technically be a SP or a RP spec, i guess SAFEST to say Pitching spec lol. And he isn’t even 20 year and pitched damn good in A ball last year so you know this guy if the want to keep him as a RP then he looks like he could be a nasty closer, he bombed a lil bit in AA after his promotion but at 19 thats pretty freakin good if you ask me, i know plenty about baseball so yeah the Braves fans that are happy about baseball doesn’t know alot about baseball…
braves#1
The problem is the reason he was converted.
Starting pitchers are more valuable, by and large, than relief pitchers. Therefore, usually organizations don’t convert starters into relievers at the minor league level unless they are trying to fill a hole in the major league bullpen quickly (in which case, if the guy is good enough, he’ll eventually go back to starting) or if they have to because the pitcher can’t make it as a starter. In this case, Aumont was converted due to injury. A degenerative hip injury. (Apologies for my earlier statement that it was his arm.) He still has electric stuff, but he is, by default, not as valuable as a reliever than he would have been as a starter. Furthermore, the injury could eventually derail him completely. He is a once bright prospect whose star has dimmed. It hasn’t gone out yet, but it is not as bright as it was.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The 10 best things about being a Detroit Tigers fan
- Surprise! A’s finally end the Yoenis Cespedes derby with $36 million deal for Cuban star
- The time Whitney Houston sang to Jim Bowden
- Pitchers and catchers! Mariners get early start in Arizona
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
