Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence Drops Again
by gondeee on Dec 14, 2009 9:22 AM EST
42 comments
Two weeks ago when the Atlanta Braves Fan Confidence dropped from 76% to 74% I considered it static in the sample and not an indication that the off-season confidence of Braves fans was any less. But I may have to reconsider this week as the confidence level drops another 2% to 72% -- its second consecutive fortnight of decline. The poll also had its second-highest voting total of 905 participants, likely a holdover from the activity of the Winter Meetings.
It could be those Winter Meetings, of course, that caused the Fan Confidence Rating to drop yet again. While the Braves netted a positive from the meetings, in the form of durable reliever Jesse Chavez, they were made to look a bit foolish by what I have coined the Soriano Surprise -- reliever Rafael Soriano's decision to accept salary arbitration. The disgruntled fan argument is still be rehashed in the press, with Mark Bradley of the AJC the latest to chime in with his opinion of the Braves ignominious off-season so far. All are valid questions, but shouldn't we wait to see the final product?
As far as a developing product, I would still consider this off-season to be moving in a positive direction. In the past two weeks we've had a flurry of action, all centered around the bullpen, but the bullpen was a huge hole that needed to be filled this off-season. Now that we're on the other side of that attempt to fill the bullpen hole, I would say that it's been filled better than it was left at the end of last season. We replaced our closer and setup man with two, albeit older, but equally capable, and far more experienced players, and we added an additional durable middle-innings reliever.
Perhaps it's a matter of perspective, and some folks are always going to view what I view as glass half full as glass half empty. That's why we have the poll, to average it all out.
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I am not reading too much into the drop in the fan confidence poll.
I’ve been around a 7.5 for awhile now, and I’m waiting to see what the Braves do with Lowe and if it can net them a nice RH bat with some power.
Just have to be patient, and there is still plenty of time.
I was initially upset with the whole Soriano deal, but the Braves knew the cons when they offered him arbitration. Blame Soriano’s agent for telling him to accept the deal and then ask to be traded, don’t blame Soriano. It would have been nice to have the additional picks though. The Braves have something in which they really didn’t have all those years of being in the playoffs…having a great solid bullpen, and I think the Braves have to have one of the best.
The Soriano deal doesn’t really annoy me that much. We got a MLB-caliber player in return, which we may not have been able to do had he not accepted arbitration.
The end result is we got something for him of value as opposed to A) losing him for nothing or B) losing him and gaining two shots in the dark.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Two high draft picks have risk...
..but analysis shows that they are valuable commodities. That being said, given that the draft picks were never actually available (we couldn’t make Soriano decline arbitration) we did the best we could for him. Given that he accepted and we could not stop that, our choices were losing him for nothing or losing him for Chavez.
why do we assume those were our only choices?...
if we wait a little, does Tampa offer something other than Salary Relief Chavez? Does Houston make a viable offer instead of wasting twice the total money for Brandon Lyon? Do the White Sox prefer that to JJ Putz? Do the Cubs, DBacks, Orioles, or others decide to make an offer instead of sifting through the stack of crap that is Gregg, Rodney, and Capps?
In Frank we trust, sure, but considering Lyon’s deal, and the teams looking for a closer, I think we had more than Chavez as an option. The rush of timing seems strange too considering we haven’t shown that we have a deal waiting for the money to be freed up and bring in a hitter.
Waiting is a double-edged sword.
My following arguments are based on one simple assumption, that I hope we can all agree to: at the time of the Soriano/Chavez trade, we did not have any better offers than Chavez. I would assume Wren would not be stupid enough to take a bad offer over a good offer.
With that assumption, I think waiting was a double-edged sword. The market for closers could get stronger or it could get weaker. The non-tendering of Capps, for example, made it weaker by adding an extra inexpensive closing option. The signing of Lyon went both ways—-it made the market weaker by taking Houston out of the closer market without removing a real closer (Lyon is a meatball), it made the market stronger by giving a big contract to a meatball reliever.
Thus, if we waited, we could have gotten more or we could have gotten less. Since the biggest thing we wanted was salary relief, however, there was a double negative to waiting—-if we get salary relief too late, we might not be able to use the salary saved to sign what we want at other positions because the players we want are already signed.
There are a lot of what ifs here that can never really be answered. We don’t know what we could have gotten later, we don’t know how late that would have been, we don’t know whether what we want in hitting would have still be available at that point.
In the end, while the trade might not have been the maximum value we could have gotten, I am okay with it because we didn’t eat any salary. It was a salary dump pure and simple and we succeeded on that front, we dumped the full salary.
I see your point but
There is way more postive then negative. Teams are always looking for relievers/closers. The list of team that would have given more (in time) is long. Think FW just wanted to get rid of him as he was a question mark to the team and a bit of embarrassment.
Waiting would have been prudent here as a very strong chance of something good is better then a sure-thing of mediocricy
Also, with all the pitching trades going down. I assume we will know if/where Lowe will go. Another trade where timing is critical
I don't buy that logic.
You say teams are always looking for closers/relievers, but fail to note how many of them are on the market right now. Rodney, Valverde, and Capps, just to name three off the top of my head, are still available. And they are just the free agents. The Reds will give Cordero away. I just don’t see teams offering much value in players when they can get a closer for “free” in players.
I think this changes the math. The certainty of mediocre return and ridding ourselves of the entire contract quickly helps when we want to move the salary quickly so we can sign free agent hitters while they are still left. The movement on the starting pitching front should help, but we are still too late. Our best outfield option just signed elsewhere for a reasonable price. I just hope we can move Lowe and get a first baseman before they are all gone, too, and we are left signing drek like Marlon Byrd and Garrett Atkins.
Rodney sucks, Capps sucks, Gregg sucks...
other than Valverde, none of the names you mention can pitch as well as Soriano when he’s on. And Valverde wants multiple years at big money which is what Soriano turned down by accepting arb.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 15, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
And Soriano has...
…never had two healthy seasons in a row. All of them have risks, but there are plenty of options. People aren’t going to give much in return when they can get a lesser, but passable option for free.
And being realistic, even if we could have gotten better for Soriano, we never would have gotten the 1B or OF we need in a deal for him; his price would never increase that much. We may have gotten decent prospects or something. If we did do that and waited, and all the hitters we wanted were signed elsewhere by then, what would be the point in doing that? A quick trade benefited us in that we can use the money saved quicker.
Teams are always looking for closers, sure...
But there are several red flags when it comes to Soriano: injury risk, overuse, cost (both in terms of contract and potentially sacrificing draft picks.) He was no slam dunk.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 16, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
It was a strange decision.
I can’t believe nobody would have offered him a two or three-year deal.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 16, 2009 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
Although I increased my vote from 6 to 7, I could see why voters who had been higher might drop a notch after the Soriano Surprise. Also I suspect there’s some impatience among fans for Wren to sign a hitter and move Derek Lowe. Overall though the Braves are still in great shape and should be able to reach all their offseason goals more easily than last year and start the season with a team that can be expected to win 90+ games and a playoff berth.
I would say with so many votes in the 7/8 range...
that most do see the glass half full, and not half empty. But with the Soriano deal, which when we did deeper looks respectable, but on its face it’s a one for one deal where we give up our closer and get back Salary Relief in a name no one recognizes. Combine that with cutting the popular KJ, and I expected a little more of a dip to be honest.
Yeah, still don't understand the Soriano Suprise angst
When Wren’s two choices were nothing or Chavez (or similar return) I think he made the right chioce. It blows my mind how all the fretting chicken littles latch onto every little move and whine for two weeks.
I’ll say it till I’m blue in the face but: Guys like Chavez who have a 94-98MPH FB, a plus-plus secondary pitch, durability, AND are under control for 5 years (two of which are at the league minimum) do not grow on trees. He may never be a ‘shut down closer’ but he has a real nice shot at being a solid mid-to-late innings arm in the very near future. Very nice piece.
As of right now we only have two real needs: trading Lowe to free up some payroll and possibly net a decent return; finding a right handed bat to play first. Not TOO much to do if you step back and look at it.
by bbxxj on Dec 14, 2009 9:58 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Well said
The only thing that I really don’t understand is why not offer arb to LaRoche??? That would have put my confidence from an 8 to a 10. I mean if he took it then we had our 1B and that right handed bat you talk about if he accepted. If he didnt we could have offer Lowe and a couple of prospects to sweeten the deal to avoid paying any of his contract and with the picks from LaRoche we re-stock the system for the prospects we lost on the trade. It seem like a no brainer to me but there might be a good reason I don’t know about.
Adam is a LH.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
They didn't want to pay him what he could have netted in arbitration either.
We’d have had another potential “surprise” to deal with.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 16, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
meh
Chavez reminds me of Mehnny Acosta.
Rah Rah Ah Ah Ah Roma Romama GaGa Ooh Lala
by VivaLosBravos on Dec 14, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Very nice piece
my rear-end!!!
He is no better then what we already have! We already have a bunch of average-at-best middle relievers o.O
Blah
Good post.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
I can’t justify voting more than a 7 until I know for a stone cold fact that that corpse we had in LF last year, or someone of similar value, is not hitting in the heart of our order again.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 14, 2009 11:13 AM EST reply actions
I hope we can replace him with a professional hitter!
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
You want Matt Stairs playing in the outfield every day?
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 16, 2009 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
A lot of people just like to complain
I read (a while agoi) about a lottery winner complaining about how much of his price was going to taxes. Don’t remember the numbers but it was something like he was getting only $6 million out of $10. Poor guy, my heart goes out to him. :)
We have a great team that should contend all year. Now we need to go to the stadium and give some support, it was sad last year been on the race and seen the stadium more than half empty. We have some of the most reasonable prices in baseball let support our team.
I don't know about the rest of you
But the issue I have with management’s handling of the Soriano case was that they should not have signed the two new bullpen pieces until after Soriano committed one way or another. In such case he accepts arbitration, then we could have just kept him and not added Wagner. Overall, I get the impression that the Braves didn’t think too highly of Soriano. He seemed like a good closer, why not just sign him to a multi-year deal? IS the guy damaged goods in the clubhouse or what?
I think the danger is...
…Soriano’s health. I don’t think he has ever had two consecutive healthy seasons.
He only accepted cuz we already decided our BP
It was his intention to get traded all along and we not have accpeted (most likely) if we didnt sign them too early. Like I stated before, timing in signing is ALOT and FW jumped the guy a few days earlier. But thats just my humble opinion
That makes no sense.
He accepted because he couldn’t get a better deal elsewhere due to the compensation picks being attached due to his Class A status. Had we not signed Wagner early, he would have accepted assuming he would remain our closer. He was just going for the money, and doing what was in his best interest.
Probably worried about injuries.
Particularly given how heavily he was used last year.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 16, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Soriano
I really don’t understand the fuss over the Soriano situation. There are only 2 legitimate reasons why you could view it as anything other than a positive. #1…If you thought the Braves should have kept him. Or, #2…If you thought they should have gotten more in trade for him. Even though I don’t agree, you could make a valid argument for either one. But, I don’t think it’s fair to criticize the offer of arbitration altogether.
It was obvious that the Braves did not want to keep Soriano around, because they signed Wagner and Saito. That was a judgment call, and I think fans have every right to second-guess Frank Wren’s decision. But, I think it was the right one, due to his injury history. He was a complete bad-a$$ before his most recent surgery. And, statistically, he is still very very good. But, I remember when he regularly threw 96-98, instead of occasionally hitting 95. He used to scare opposing hitters.
Everybody in Baseball thought that Soriano would be able to get a multi-year deal from somebody. So, offering him arbitration with the potential of getting a draft pick was a no-brainer. That’s not how the market worked out, for whatever reason. But, Wren cannot be faulted for coming to the same conclusion that everybody in Baseball came to. Wren knew all along that if Soriano accepted arbitration, the Braves would be able to trade him. So, that was a no-risk decision.
If you have a problem with getting a middle-reliever for a closer, that too is a valid concern. But, you have to look at the overall situation in context. If Soriano declined arbitration, and signed with another club, the Braves would have gotten a draft pick. In other words, they didn’t want to play Soriano’s perceived price, and they were willing to accept a draft pick, which…realistically speaking…stands a great chance of not even becoming a prospect. MLB is THE highest failure rate of any professional sport by its draft picks.
So, what The Braves got was a major-league ready, middle-reliever. And, all they had to spend was the time it took Frank Wren to make some phone calls to other GM’s.
Based on what they expected to get from Soriano, they absolutely got more.
I agree with most of that except...
..we would have gotten two draft picks, and despite the high failure rate, the cheap cost of the years of team control have been shown to make the draft the most economical method of acquiring talent. I am not sure how specific that study was, however—-I am sure it showed the draft as more economical than free agent signings or trades, but I am not sure whether it compared draft picks to trading with the Pirates, for example. ;)
too short
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 15, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
Learn to read.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 16, 2009 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Working again over break.
LOL.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 17, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
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