Does Trading Lowe Make Us Better?
by jdunk on Dec 11, 2009 9:46 PM EST
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PrintWe are hearing plenty of talk about trading Derek Lowe, but I wonder how we will spend the money we would gain by trading him?
The problem I see is that we are gonna overpay for whoever we choose to sign using his money. This is fine if they are one year deals, but I have a hard time believing we can acquire many of the names linked to us to one year deals.
My point is, I think we need to be careful and not make another mistake by giving hitters too much money because we are desperate. This is exactly what happened with Lowe and we are already regretting it.
I know that isn't an exciting proposition, but it may be the most realistic situation if we can't trade Lowe without eating money. I don't expect much of anything in return, but if we are eating money I say keep him.
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By trading Lowe we should save at least $30M over the next 3 years. I don’t see us eating more than $5M a season. I really don’t know how we would overpay with this free agent market. We already know that Bay has been offered 4 years $65M by the Mets, which I think is personally a very dumb move by them. They have an awful pitching staff after Santana they should be going after Lackey. DeRosa wants 3 years $27M but that’s laughable. The guys is a super utility player not an everyday starter. After the big 3 free agents none of the rest will get over $30M. We should be able to sign a few guys to 1 year deals it just might take till Feb. or March before it happens. Remember last year was like this to.
And Santana's even really fallen off since arriving in NY.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 16, 2009 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, but does signing a few guys like Xavier Nady really make us better. You say we don’t overpay, but we will if we actually bring in anyone worthwhile.
With our pitching staff the way it is we don’t need a lot of offense. Nady could give us a solid bat if he proves healthy. A 1 year $2M deal plus $3M in incentives wouldn’t be overpaying if he’s healthy.
I agree we don’t need a lot of offense, which is why I say we don’t have to trade Lowe. If Nady and another similar guy are all we are bringing in, we could probably sign them and keep Lowe.
We still have the 6th starter problem. Most likely Kawakami goes to the bullpen but he’s another expensive bullpen arm for us. I really think that Wren doesn’t want to put more money into the bullpen. I’m not really sure where we are money wise but we still have 3 players who are arbitration eligible. Moylan will defiantly be back but I would be somewhat surprised if Johnson is back. We need Lowe’s contract off the books because it gives us more flexibility to sign someone but also gives more money for the next 2 off seasons, plus during the season this year to bring someone in.
we don't need nady...
Matt Diaz, given a full season of playing time, is just as solid as nady and less expensive. plus Diaz is not coming off tommy john surgery like a certain boras client i know is. the outfield will be better than last year simply because fuga wont be trotting around in left. Diaz, Mclouth and a schafer/heyward platoon in right seems like the best option to me. And we should resign Laroche to a one year deal with an option for a second that vests only if he performs at a certain level. freeman is still way young and could probably use more than just another season in the minors to fully mature.
I really hope they don’t platoon either Schafer or Heyward. If either of them start the season in Atlanta then they need to start full time. I think Schafer needs almost a full year at AAA after being injured most of last year. I don’t think Heyward starts the season with Atlanta. I think they give him till late May early June at AAA then give him the call. That’s why signing a 1 year type OF would be fine for us. It doesn’t matter if he’s a CF or corner OF. I would like to see Diaz be given the chance to start the full season but the guy hasn’t had over 400 at bats since 2004 with AAA Durham.
My scenario would be to sign Nady once he proves that he’s healthy to play 1B. Then sign Cameron to play CF. You would shift McLouth to LF and start Diaz in RF. I don’t want Shafer or Heyward in Atlanta unless they can get regular at bats. Infante can play the OF for a game to spell guys. When Nady needs a day off you can shift Prado to first and Infante can play 2B. When Heyward is ready to get called up then he plays RF everyday and DIaz becomes your 4th OF.
I agree.. I dont think having a Schafer / Heyward platoon is wise to there development. Unless one can just win the job straight up in spring training. I no there isnt a whole lot of options either, but just to say in a wishful thinking kinda way, why not a Lowe and a pitching prospect to the White Sox for Konerko even if we had to eat say 3 or 4 mill. from Lowes contract. We have alot of pitching depth in the minors, and i like Konerko and he has some pop, hes gonna make 12 mill. this year but that would be quite an almost even swap money wise if we half to eat a lil. Then just try to sighn a Nady or another type for left and let Diaz play right. Konerko’s a free agent after next year, and we will have that 12 mill. in the books, hope that Freemans ready, sighn Javy to an extension. Just a thought lol.
I would be fine with that. Konerko a solid bat. I think he’s got 1 good year left in him. We could probably get away with not eating any of Lowe’s contract for 2010 but the last 2 years we would have to pay them a lot. Probably up to $5M a season. When that contract is up Lowe will no longer be all that useful, so it’s unlikely he will be a type A or B so they won’t be getting draft picks for him and we probably would from Konerko.
eh
i think we could do fine with Nady at 1B and call it a day. Frank Wren has already said that he is going to basically leave the door open for Heyward to start in RF next year.
Ideally we could bring back Church. Have the opening day OF be Diaz, McLouth, Church and then when Heyward is ready start him in RF and whoever has been playing better between Diaz and Church starts in LF.
by drumzalicious on Dec 14, 2009 3:11 AM EST up reply actions
If we aren't signing an OF...
…why not try for something better at 1B than Xavier Nady? With two possible slots to fill, it seems to be severe underkill to fill them with weak and nothing.
Agree with this...
I’d take Nady and Glaus though, with Billy Butler too. If you can straight dump Lowe’s salary, I doubt they’d combine for more than his $15m, if not a couple mill less.
i like how u just kinda throw in Billy Butler at the end there, like hed be easy to acquire
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Oops...
meant Mike Jacobs. Thanks for the catch Swo.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 14, 2009 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Mike Jacobs? Ew. I’d rather have the better version of him in Russell Branyan, even with the injury concerns. Hell, I like Branyan regardless.
by bravesfan91 on Dec 14, 2009 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Branyan is looking for likely a much bigger deal...
and Glaus/Jacobs at 1st should fill the void imo, and then Nady or another to fill the corner OF spot until Schafer is ready for CF (sliding McLouth to LF) or of course Superstar in RF.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 14, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Branyan is looking for a two year deal, and I’d gladly pay him more than Jacobs. There’s also a report out now saying that Glaus is healthy and open to 1B, so him and Cameron would make a fantastic offseason. But the most important thing is to STAY AWAY FROM JACOBS.
I would pay Branyan more than Jacobs...
…but I don’t think I would pay Branyan anything that Branyan would accept. He has great power and a decent eye, but poor contact rates and a mediocre OBP. And he’s left handed.
He’s got slightly better than mediocre OBP. He posted a .347 mark this year, and while its not great its certainly serviceable. And nobody really knows what his asking price is. As far as him being left-handed, when we get down to it 40HR power is 40HR power.
Now that we hear about Glaus being healthy though, I’m transitioning my desire to him for 1B.
And Branyan ain't got it.
He just hit a ridiculous career-high in a long career with less than that. Better than even odds he doesn’t even make 30 this year.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 16, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
to sit on the bench though?...
Branyan won’t accept such a deal, maybe Jacobs will for a chance to possibly play.
no problem… honest mistakes are always allowed… no worries….suggesting Mike Jacobs is never allowed… he has one tool power. he has no contact skills, he cant take a walk, he can’t work a count, and he is a poor defender at 1B. he really has no skills that would lend to him being a good bench bat… Gomes is drastically better than Jacobs. In about every way.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Except the glove.
They are both pretty awful in the field. I’d say they were about even on that.
fair enough...
although my thinking was more lefty/righty in Jacobs/Glaus. Right now we’ve got Infante and Ross on the bench, both righty, so we likely sign someone to be the left handed bat off the bench.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 14, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
The reason why we are trying to trade Lowe is because is there is no reason to have a six pitcher rotation which is what the Braves have currently. Vazquez, Jurrjens are both too good, Hanson is young and good, and Kenshin and Hudson aren’t really tradeable. Therefore D Lowe is the odd man out. Also a Schafer/ Heyward platoon sounds horrible. Maybe we need another one year flyer ala G Anderson
Firefrankwren.com: It's gonna happen this offseason
Yes trading Lowe makes us better. Lowe pitched poorly last year considering his contract and isn’t getting any younger. A rotation without him would be better. The money saved on his contract can help Wren fill out the offense for instance by re-signing Laroche and signing somebody like Mike Cameron. We saw prior to the trade deadline last year that the Braves are not a playoff team with the current offensive roster. They need to replace Laroche’s bat and add somebody better than Anderson to play the outfield (Heyward could be that guy of course).
I’m with you if we get both Cameron and LaRoche,but I don’t see that happening. I’m worried we’ll trade Lowe then not bring in anyone worthwhile.
I don’t think LaRoche will have problems getting a 4-5 year commitment from a team for 6-8 mil/year. He isn’t a great player, but he is durable and teams know what they are getting.
It's not that we are regretting him.
It’s that when we signed him, Jurrjens was our only set starter, now with the emergence of Hanson, the return of Hudson, Vazquez pitching the way he did, and Jurrjens being Jurrjens, and Kawakami being a cheaper option as the #5.
Lowe is just too expensive to be a #5, we aren’t the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, or Dodgers, so we can’t afford anyone and everyone.
I think you’re undervaluing Lowe too, you say we won’t get much in return, and I bet you’re basing that assumption on his ERA. Bad idea, I don’t feel like looking it up but I saw on Fan Graphs he was worth around $12 Mil last year based on the stats he can control. That’s only $3 Mil overpaid, not bad. There are plenty of teams out there who would love a $12 Mil durable starting pitcher who can get 15 wins on a weak offensive team.
I regretted the signing about 5 minutes after I learned about it
When I started to hear the numbers involved in his contract.
The number was $12.0 mil.
That was also his lowest mark since ‘05. He probably will bounce back, but he’s the SP we have who’s got the best combination of market value and extendability for our team.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 17, 2009 8:24 AM EST up reply actions
It makes the Braves better in that it frees up payroll space, but you seem to operate under the assumption that if we free up $15 mil, then we’re going to turn around and pay someone $15 mil. I really doubt that. I can see Wren taking a flyer on an OF or first baseman (someone like Garrett Atkins) who will cost much less than $15 mil.
the rockies non-tendered garrett atkins so we can go after him and then get a productive bat for lowe
by Kobe:The Legend on Dec 12, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Garrett Atkins is not a productive bat.
Before 2009, he only hit in Coors. In 2009, he didn’t hit there either. He isn’t a bad cheap take a chance option, but I wouldn’t want to go into 2010 with him as one of our regulars.
Garrett Atkins just played bad last season but look at him the previous seasons
The Spanish Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Dec 12, 2009 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
To be fair
We said the same thing about Matt Holliday, who turned around and had a very solid year, especially once he left Oakland.
There is a big difference here.
Holliday, while playing for Colorado, was better at home than on the road, but was still good on the road. Atkins has sucked on the road.
Holliday’s road numbers his last three years with Rockies:
2008: .308/.405/.486 OPS: .892
2007: .301/.374/.485 OPS: .860
2006: .280/.333/.485 OPS: .819
Atkins’s Road numbers last three years (all with Rockies):
2009: .200/.298/.326 OPS: .624
2008: .233/.278/.383 OPS: .661
2007: .254/.327/.446 OPS: .773
There is a difference, a big difference between the two. Holliday was considered a Coors product and was incredible at Coors and good on the road. Atkins is considered a Coors product and is good at Coors and pretty miserable on the road.
THIS...
Coors made Holliday, like Todd Helton, Andres Galarraga, and Larry Walker, go from being a good player to one who looks like a Hall of Famer. With Atkins, it turned him from below average to good, and now that he’s declining from crap to just below average.
Well he did separate Atkins and the productive bat.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 17, 2009 8:25 AM EST up reply actions
Atkins has to be considered another Coors Field project. I’m not convinced that he can be of much value on any team other than the Rockies. I’d like to hope I’m wrong, but a lot of the guys that come from Colorado’s numbers take a huge nosedive.
Examples?
In the last 3-4 years (i.e., post-humidor)?
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
- Willy Taveras was always garbage, sure, but he went from a 667 OPS in COL to 559 in Cincy.
- Kaz Matsui went from 779 to 713 in Houston.
Those are actually their only two significant FA batter losses.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 17, 2009 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
Atkins's numbers show he is a Coors field product.
The career splits are alarming.
Career at Coors: 1513 PA, .327/.385/..507 OPS: .892
Career on Road: 1608 PA,, .252/.324/..411 OPS: .735
I’ll pass unless we are moving to Coors.
But his minor league numbers suggest he can hit away from CF – .317 .397 .476 .873
That is in nearly 2500 ABs over 6 minor league seasons.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 13, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
So, that means 2 of his full 4 seasons were away from Colorado…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 13, 2009 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
In Oregon it appears, yes...
no idea just what those leagues are, and if they are hitter or pitcher friendly. Although I’ve always seen west coast leagues as inflated for hitters.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 13, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
At least two west coast leagues are hitters' paradises...
The California League (I think that’s the name, it’s a A league) and the PCL.
Minor League numbers? Aside from 5 games he hasn’t played in the minors since 04, how are they even relevant? That’s so long ago it really has nothing to do with the player he is now.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
I understand that, but I was just pointing out that he does have the ability to hit away from Coors in there somewhere.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 13, 2009 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
against minor league pitching, yes...
so even more irrelevant to how he’d play in Atlanta.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 13, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, you need to stop trying to over analyze everything and taking this so literal.
I am simply pointing out that Atkins’ minor league numbers indicate that he could be a good low-risk/high reward player that we could sign with a high ceiling based on the fact that all of his numbers are not necessarily Coors products.
Geez.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 13, 2009 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
It's not over analyzing...
You are relying on statistics from A ball in Oregon in 2001 and the Carolina League in 2002 to make a case for this guy, seriously? On a non-guaranteed, minor league deal, sure give him a chance. I’d have more confidence in Barbaro Canizares as our starting 1B than him.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 13, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
the more I think about it, that is amazingly hypocritical...
I’m “trying to over analyze everything”, while you use his stats in A and AA from 7 and 8 years ago in an attempt prove the guy can hit outside of the Rockies? Unless the comments about his minor league stats were supposed to be in sarcastic font, I really don’t know what to say.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 13, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn’t trying to prove anything. Merely suggesting it as an option and alluding to the idea that the guy CAN possibly still hit.
Like you said, low money, non-guaranteed.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 13, 2009 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
The problem is, where does he get playing time?
I don’t want to turn over 1B to him fulltime and want to sign a real full-time 1B. I guess we could use him as a bench bat and fill in for Chipper’s inevitable DL time, and at the right price that is fine. I would think that Atkins wants more than that, and will find someone who will give him a real shot at a starting job, however.
That’s pretty much my thinking too – a backup to Chipper and a bat off the bench. If he pans out and regains the skills that he was hyped on, he becomes a good candidate to eventually take over 3B when Chipper retires.
But, it has to be at a low cost and he has to be willing to have a bench role.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
He also has some pretty great numbers against our divisional foes.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 13, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
We may not have to move to Coors. Here are his numbers at the Ted:
.309 .356 .582 .938
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 13, 2009 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
That’s why I want Atkins
The Spanish Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Dec 13, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
Sample size?
59 plate appearances just isn’t much. As a Brave, that’s a month.
*Resists urge to make a comment about everyone-knows-who….
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 13, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
Prado…bc he cant get off the subject..i might have to drive to TX and smack him around
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
I’d give you 20 bucks to help with gas.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
KJ is going to be my Tiexiera.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
^ That was a joke.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 14, 2009 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
To answer the initial question in this post:
No. Trading Lowe by itself does not make us better. Trading him and using the salary saved to get productive bats at 1B and possibly OF would make us better. If we trade him and sign crappy hitters, it won’t help at all.
This is what I'm concerned about
Who is out there good that we can actually sign to one year deals?
LaRoche is very tradeable when Freeman is ready, but I don’t want to get stuck with an outfielder on a multiyear deal when we may only need him til June.
I like Cameron, but I don’t see him accepting a one year deal.
I think Cameron would take a 1+ deal, that is, some kind of option, preferably club or vesting. Russell Branyan wants a two year deal, and I think that puts us right on time as far as Freeman’s development.
by bravesfan91 on Dec 14, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Why is Branyan better than the other options?
He’s left-handed and has good power, but has contact issues and a mediocre OBP. I would think he would be well down on the list behind LaRoche, Delgado, Glaus, and maybe even Nady.
what is this obsession with Nady!?
i dont understand… he only had one good season…. he has numerous injuries…he is coming off major surgery… we have no clue if he can field anymore and he couldnt field that good back when healthy….Im all for low cost/high reward…but reward is only the first and not so much the second….He’s not better than Glaus, or Delgado or Branyan and he would cost almsot the same.
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
Nady is not better than...
…Glaus or Delgado. Or likely Branyan, although Branyan has only really had one good season, too. He would be cheaper than Branyan however, since Branyan’s good year was last year. As for Nady, I don’t want him for every day first base, but he could keep right field warm for Heyward for a couple of months and be, for example, Glaus injury insurance for 1B.
He only had one really good season, sure...
But while ‘08 would prove to be a huge upgrade over our corner OF spots lately, his ’05-’07 line would also prove to give us better production. So if he’s healthy and can be had inexpensively, then I’d say we should certainly give him a shot.
Overheard in press box, from local reporter: 'If this Moore kid was any good, they'd be up 31-0 right now.'
--Darin Gantt, on CAR@NE
by MichaelProcton on Dec 17, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
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