KLaw on the Soriano Deal
This is not an Insider article, so I will post the whole thing here...
This is Keith Law's take on the Soriano trade.
"Rafael Soriano was one of the two best relievers on the market, with former teammate Mike Gonzalez, and the Rays are fortunate to get someone of his caliber on a one-year deal for the price of a cheap middle reliever.
The Rays' pen, a strength of the 2008 pennant-winning club, was a major weakness in 2009, and Soriano helps them in almost any role as someone who throws strikes and misses bats; last year, nobody in Tampa's pen came close to Soriano's ability to do both of those things, and his arrival allows Joe Maddon to shift J.P. Howell to work in the seventh and eighth innings depending on matchups.
You will still hear whispers about Soriano being less than tough, especially when he blows his first save, but he didn't show any propensity to melt down in 2009 in a full year of closing. The trade is worth a couple of wins on paper -- maybe more if Soriano's used in a highly-leveraged way -- and with Soriano likely to make somewhere between $7 million and $7.5 million in arbitration, he should be a good value.
Jesse Chavez -- Atlanta's addition -- is a three-pitch reliever with an above-average fastball and a solid-average changeup; he has shown plus control throughout his pro career, making him a good bet to be an average middle guy, although he doesn't miss enough bats to be a late-game reliever. I'm a little surprised this was the best offer Atlanta could get for Soriano, but they also seemed desperate to move him immediately rather than wait out the winter and run the risk that they couldn't trade him.
The lesson here for clubs wavering on offering arbitration to a Type A free agent is that having the player accept against your wishes is not the end of the world. If the player is good and his market was hurt by the Type A designation, you should still be able to dump the salary, at the least, if not actually trade him for something of value. Atlanta's decision to offer might not look like the right one because Soriano accepted, but it was the right call, and I'd rather take the risk of having a good player accept than throw away the chance for two high draft picks the way Dodgers did by not offering a deal to Randy Wolf. "
3 months ago
justincredubil02
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KLaw seems to have exactly the same take as many here on the TC board.
by fandave on Dec 10, 2009 10:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I guess that makes him a smart dude!
:)
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 10, 2009 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We are masters of analysis, wit and whimsy here at TC.
"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"
by The Keith Lockhart Era on Dec 10, 2009 11:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The word from DOB
Given the circumstances and lack of leverage the Braves held in Soriano trade negotiations, acquiring Chavez – and not having to fund part of Soriano’s salary – was probably as good an outcome as could reasonably have been expected.
full article here
by fandave on Dec 11, 2009 6:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I guess the key word there is “reasonably”.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 11, 2009 8:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
also thought this part was of interest:
Chavez is not out of minor-league options and the Braves can control his contract for several affordable seasons.
/snip
The Braves believe Chavez, 26, has ability – including a 94-96 mph fastball — to someday work his way into a late-innings role.
by fandave on Dec 11, 2009 8:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The more I read about that guy, the more I like the signing. I think FW may have pulled through again and landed us something that we will enjoy a couple of years from now.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Dec 11, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks…I had been wondering about how long we were going to be able to control this guy.
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 11, 2009 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's my gripe
FW offered arb banking on the draft picks, right? Therefore, we can assume that he also banked on spending ~$2mil on signing those picks. I would have preferred to see him hold out for better talent in return for Soriano, even if it meant including up to $2mil. Then you have more room to acquire a player that might give comparable value to the two picks that were lost.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
by buzzdeadwax on Dec 11, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As soon as the Astros agreed to trade for Lindstrom from the Marlins, it became a one team race and Atlanta lost leverage. I think given the attrition rate of draft picks that the Braves came out ahead in this one.
by JFP on Dec 11, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why?...
They signed Lyon for a little less, over a longer term. Would you not rather have Soriano on his deal than what Lyon just got? I certainly would. The White Sox just gave JJ Putz a deal where he can make a similar amount and his recent past is a far cry from Soriano. The idea Soriano was a one team race, considering other relievers signed the last couple days, makes no sense.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 11, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
Because Soriano wanted a one year deal at a higher rate than the 3 year deal Lyon signed for fewer annual dollars. The White Sox are using the ol’ risk/reward gamble on a Putz, where he only reaches Soriano’s dollar amount if he finishes a certain number of games. So those teams weren’t comfortable giving anything up for one year of Soriano at 7 mil or more. The Orioles dropped out after taking on Milwood and the Rays were the only team left standing.
by JFP on Dec 11, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm definitely glad we aren't the ones shelling out $3 mil for what's left of JJ Putz.
"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"
by The Keith Lockhart Era on Dec 12, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree, Putz's deal is similar to Saito...
with Saito showing better production. Personally, if I’m the Astros though, I’d have been more than happy to part with Jeff Keppinger or Jason Bourgeois or Wladimir Sutil or any of a number of OF, IF, or relievers instead of signing Lyon to 3/$15m.
by Mr. Sanchez on Dec 13, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I felt like the Braves could have gotten more, but I trust Wren and there is still Lowe to move, so I’m sure there is still more to all of this.
I’m just surprised the Braves couldn’t at the very least get a high upside low minor leaguer in the deal as well though. Oh well.
by Sparhawk on Dec 11, 2009 9:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I guess my only complaint about the trade is Chavez’s creepy facial hair.
by McCann and McWill on Dec 11, 2009 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it will inspire a wave of creepy facial hair in the clubhouse. I can see Tommy Hanson with a wicked handlebar stache.
"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"
by The Keith Lockhart Era on Dec 12, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, wow…
"SIGN PUJOLS OR FIRE WREN" ~ Swo12bv
by Smoltz's Beard on Dec 12, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But damn, he does look like a Chester though.
"...Braves tie! ...Braves tie! ...Braves tie!"
by The Keith Lockhart Era on Dec 12, 2009 3:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs





















