Jim Callis on Mike Minor and the Draft
From the latest ask BA. Callis always kills me.
With a good showing after he signed and a fine performance in the Arizona Fall League, has lefthander Mike Minor shed the notion that he wasn’t worthy of being drafted seventh overall by the Braves?
Phil Jones
Burke, Va.
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No one ever has disputed the fact that Minor can really pitch. He does a nice job of mixing and locating his fastball, curveball, slider and changeup. He has been very impressive in four starts at low Class A Rome (though that’s a small sample size) and in four brief outings in the AFL (a smaller sample size, and you shouldn’t read too much into AFL stats).
Still, Minor doesn’t have a true plus pitch beyond his changeup and his fastball usually operates in the upper 80s. His realistic ceiling is as a No. 3 starter, it’s easier to project him as a No. 4 and it’s not difficult to draw parallels between him and another Vanderbilt finesse lefthander who was a top-10 choice, Jeremy Sowers.
Was Minor a worthy first-rounder? Yes. Would have I taken him seventh overall? Not a chance. One of the reasons teams complain that the draft doesn’t distribute talent equitably is the clubs won’t take the best player available. Atlanta wouldn’t exceed MLB’s bonus recommendation at No. 7, though they mistakenly budgeted for the 2008 figure ($2.42 million) rather than the reduced 2009 number ($2.178 million) because the commissioner’s office didn’t give them the amount quickly enough. That limited their choices, though former Braves scouting director Roy Clark (now assistant GM with the Nationals) was a big believer in Minor. Clark loved Tyler Matzek, too, but didn’t have the budget to sign him.</blockquote
over 2 years ago
PWHjort
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Ha
more hate on Minor from all the writers. prove em wrong Mike.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
This guy pisses me off!
Minor’s fastball is consistently 90-92 only dipping into the 80’s occasionally. I get so tired of guys saying he only throws in the upper 80’s…………..it’s just not true.
have you seen him and tested it with your own radar gun?
because there is no real way to tell. if more people say he is in the upper 80’s, i would go with that.
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
So let me see if I get this:
Jim Callis would absolutely not take a pretty much guaranteed MLB pitcher in hopes that another guy somewhere would somehow defy the odds and make the majors? Stupid.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 6, 2009 7:30 PM EST reply actions
plus, it’s not like the Braves are desperate for a young ace to build around. I’d be totally fine if Minor is a “#3” for us.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by Scott Coleman on Nov 7, 2009 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
Why? I think I’d rather have a guaranteed good player than a long-shot great one.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 9, 2009 8:29 AM EST up reply actions
Because that’s just lazy and a great way to build a perpetually mediocre organization.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
If that's your choice every time, sure...
but we have pretty of “long shot great one” types. Getting this guy was a nice balance, and this idea that a lefty with good command, good mound presence, and four quality pitches is somehow not a good enough “upside” is just amazing to me. So he can’t throw upper 90s, the other aspects seem pretty solid.
The number 7 overall selection in the draft (highest Braves’ selection since 1991) is no place to go with a polished college run-of-the-mill crafty lefty with underwhelming stuff. That’s where you get your impact players, not borderline organizational filler.
I mean, I like Minor and everything, but he was over-drafted due to financial concerns. I’m not trying to bitch and complain about it, but that’s the way it is. The decision to select him wasn’t because he brings a “nice balance” (rationalization if I’ve ever heard it), it was a shrewd financially motivated move in which the team sacrificed talent (a great deal thereof, actually) for a few million bucks (though they certainly were comfortable with paying Greg Norton $800,000 or Garret Anderson $2.5 million to play well below replacement level). Don’t try to convince yourself (or anyone else) otherwise. Anyone who tells you different is either misinformed or an organizational mouth insulting your intelligence.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
And what is the chance the...
high upside choice you wanted makes the majors? Do even 20% of top 10 picks make it?
Take your “impact”, and go sit with Brien Taylor.
Of the 30 top-10 picks from 2005-2007, 22 (73.33%, ever so slightly higher than 20%) have made it to the majors:
David Price
Matt Wieters
Ross Detwiler
Matt LaPorta
Madison Bumgarner
Luke Hochevar
Evan Longoria
Greg Reynolds
Brandon Morrow
Jeff Clement
Andrew Miller
Clayton Kershaw
Drew Stubbs
Tim Lincecum
Justin Upton
Alex Gordon
Ryan Zimmerman
Ryan Braun
Ricky Romero
Troy Tulowitzki
Mike Pelfrey
Cameron Maybin
The list that hasn’t made it includes:
Brad Lincoln
Jarrod Parker
Mike Moustakas
Josh Vitters
All of whom have pretty damn good chances of making it to the majors.
27 of the next 39 (69.23%, again, slightly more than that 20% figure you quoted, but you’re the one who asked) top-10 picks who signed with their drafting teams (drafts 2001-2004, Wade Townsend didn’t sign in after being drafted top-10 in 2004, flamed out after being drafted top-10 and signing in 2005, instead) have made it to the majors:
Justin Verlander
Phil Humber
Jeff Niemann
Jeremy Sowers
Homer Bailey
Delmon young
Rickie Weeks
Nick Markakis
Paul Maholm
John Danks
Ian Stewart
Tim Stauffer
B.J. Upton
Zach Greinke
Prince Fielder
Jeff Francis
Drew Meyer
Scott Moore
Adam Loewen
Bryan Bullington
Joe Mauer
Mark Prior
Gavin Floyd
Mark Teixeira
Chris Burke
John Van Benschoten
Dewon Brazelton
Over 70% of the top-10 draft picks from 2001-2008 have made it to the majors. Some crappy players like Chris Burke and Ross Detwiler. Some studs like Mark Teixeira and Tim Lincecum, but overall, you’re making an assumption that is 100% wrong. Top-10 picks making it to the majors is the norm. If an organization says they used a top-10 pick on a guy because he has a good chance of making it to the majors, they’re insulting your intelligence and trying to cover the fact that they pinched every penny they could.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
Interesting…I wonder if you could find out how many of those guys were “high upside-high risk” players vs “sure things”.
I think that only then will the percentages matter for either side of the debate.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 9, 2009 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
He asked..
Do even 20% of top 10 picks make it?
This ain’t the most scientific thing I’ve ever done, but I think it answers the question.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
no, no. I get that. I was trying to take it one step further. I don’t think it really matters what % of the top 10 picks make it to the Show, as those could all theoretically be “safe” picks vs. the high upside, risky picks.
I am curious to know if there is any data that shows the percentage of risky picks taken in the top 10 that make it…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 10, 2009 4:14 AM EST up reply actions
an interesting thought justin...
not sure how you’d figure that out, but I asked and PWHjort answered. I don’t think just being in the top 10 increases your chances, but I am surprised at the number of top picks that have panned out. I did not expect the % to be near that great as you can see.
Can it not be a little of both?...
Yeah, he was more “signable”, and that mattered to the club. But we are still talking about a lefty with his makeup in personality and pitches, and that has turned out pretty well at times. It’s not like the club was looking at a potential Roy Halladay vs. potential Jojo Reyes, and went with the cheaper Reyes. Minor has garnered some pretty good comparisons, especially from Wren (aka Hamels).
It is certainly a little of both
And I went way overboard when I said “borderline organizational filler”. I’d say his floor is probably that of a Mark Hendrickson. A never spectacular, always around and rarely above league-average, pitcher whose pitchability and left-handed-ness allows him to pitch into his mid-30’s. His ceiling? Somewhere between the career of Randy Wolf and that of Andy Pettitte. We’ll say he has a 100% chance of making it to the majors (which isn’t accurate, but not too far off, and this exercise is purely academic).
Now, say you can take a pitcher who has a much higher collapse rate, say, 50%. But his ceiling is that of Sandy Koufax.
The opportunity to get the next Koufax doesn’t come around every day.
If Minor doesn’t work out, you can always buy a league average pitcher for ~$10 million on the FA market. You can’t find another Koufax.
The Yankees are about the only team that’s been successful surrounding their farm’s products with super-star FA’s. For the other 29 teams in baseball, their super-stars need to be home grown for the model to work.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
The success rate of first round picks is interesting. Baseball America did a study where they looked at the first 40 years of the draft, up until 05 I think, and they found that 33% of the guys drafted in the first round never make it to the Major Leagues. And, of the 67% that do, only 40% of them end up having “significant” careers, which they defined by a relatively low standard, amounting to around 4 seasons. So, of all the guys drafted in any given first round, only about 8 are going to become significant players. Once you know that, it puts a whole different perspective on all the draft stuff.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
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