Braves 2009 Season in Review: Jair Jurrjens
by gondeee on Nov 5, 2009 1:38 PM EST
67 comments
Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens was good in 2009, but was he really a whole run better -- as he ERA from last year (3.68) to this year (2.60) showed? There are many Braves fans who are ready to anoint Jurrjens as the next in the great line of Braves starters, but to borrow a phrase from Lee Corso, "not so fast my friend."
Jurrjens certainly was a joy to watch in 2009, but aside from a tad bit more maturity and a little bit more durability, he was the same pitcher that toed the mound in 2008. While his ERA was over a run better than the previous year (as mentioned above), his FIP in 2009 (3.68) was worse than it was in 2008 (3.59). By those standards, Jurrjens was just a lot luckier this year. His strikeout and walk rates were virtually unchanged, his double play rate was the same, just about all of his rate stats were unchanged except his ratio of ground balls to fly balls allowed.
If there was an improvement in Jurrjens game in his second full year in the majors, it was that he seemed to learn to pitch to contact better and turn more of his batted balls into outs. He went from having a .307 BAbip in 2008 to a .274 BAbip last year. We could chalk this up to luck, but we could also say that Jurrjens was simply better at getting batters to hit the ball where he wanted them to, and part of that could have been pitching to more fly balls than ground balls.
So Jurrjens wasn't as good as his numbers say he was. He was a lot luckier than the year before, or in 2008 perhaps he just had a whole lot of bad luck. If we take that approach then the real Jair Jurrjens is probably somewhere between his 2008 and 2009 numbers. Keep in mind that he pitched in 3 more games, had 8 more quality starts, and pitched almost 27 more innings between last year and this year. Regardless of the glaring increase in his FIP, perhaps his increasing ability to pitch to contact successfully will continue in the coming years, but the odds are that we shouldn't be surprised if we see Jurrjens put up numbers that are closer to his 2008 numbers next season.
I'm all for riding the Jurrjens' Surgeons band wagon, and I'll enjoy the ride while it lasts, but keep in mind that he may be pulling something similar, though not as extreme, as what Jorge Houdini did in 2005. To continue his success, Jurrjens must continue to be a guy who pitches to contact effectively, and that can be a tough path to follow (unless your name is Greg Maddux).
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It could definitely be both
He probably was lucky, but he used his slider more effectively this season. It gave him that 3rd pitch to go to. I am inclined to think he will eventually regress a bit, but a 3.60 ERA is still good enough for a great #2 starter on any team in baseball (and an ace for many others).
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 5, 2009 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree that his 2.60 ERA was a little luck, but don’t compare him to Jorge Sosa please. Dude is still a force, especially considering he’s out #3 or #4 starter
by eaheckman10 on Nov 5, 2009 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree,to an extent,
but given the minute FIP change, I think some of the drop in ERA can be ascribed to just flat out better pitching.
by Zeus12888 on Nov 5, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sosa also was a bit of a flash in the pan...
he had a good 3/4 of a year here, while Jair has been solid since he arrived. That’s a much bigger sample size of success than Sosa ever had through his entire career.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 5, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
JJ
Dude is sick. Love hearing the stories about his family being lifelong Braves fans too.
"Braves fans in the hizzy" -Boog
"Is that like the crib?" - Joe
by GwinnettBraves on Nov 5, 2009 2:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Don't talk bad about JJ!!!!!!!!!
J/k. Good post.
by taney71 on Nov 5, 2009 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Even still
if he posts a 3.6 ERA he is doing what we expect of him. We dont need him to be the future ace because thats Hanson’s job we need him to be a good #2/#3. It would be ideal for Minor to be just as good as JJ so we could go Hanson/Minor/JJ as our top 3.
by drumzalicious on Nov 5, 2009 3:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
We should sign jj putz
The mets have said that they will not pick up his option
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
by esadb on Nov 5, 2009 3:10 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
that doesnt necessarily seem applicable to this thread
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 5, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well I can't find a relavent thread on my phone
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
by esadb on Nov 5, 2009 3:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
fair enough
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 5, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
also i saw u were interested in a dynasty league someone brought up a while ago… im in a 30 team dynasty league.. if you are interested.. the cost is onyl $10 (and I can be swayed one that) and that cost goes towards paying for CBS…
if your interested let me know and Ill send you the link
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 5, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dynasty leagues
are awesome. I’m in a 16 team league right now myself.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 6, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure that a .09 increase in FIP is what one would call a “glaring increase”. But, you’re the boss.
by John Holton on Nov 5, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
When compared against the over a run drop in ERA… yes, it is.
by gondeee on Nov 5, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pardon my ignorance (I come from the era when there was basically wins, losses and ERA), but why?
by John Holton on Nov 5, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They should coincide somewhat. To see one decrease while they other increases is highly unusual, either way. The general interpretation is that in Jurrjens’ case it takes a lot of luck for his FIP to regress and his ERA to decrease. Conversely, if a guy’s FIP decreases and his ERA inflates, the general assumption is there was some awful luck involved and the pitcher is better than his ERA. For the most part, though, both stats should fluctuate in the same direction each season.
by J-Freak on Nov 5, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What is FIP and how is it calculated?
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 5, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In short
Fielding Independent Pitching – evaluates how the pitcher performs with the defense completely removed from the equasion. Basically a formula that shows how a pitcher performs based on hits, walks, homers, strikeouts, HBPs, etc, anything that does not involve any fielders.
If I knew how to portray it in comments, I would do so, but if you want to know precisely how it’s calculated, then here.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 5, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well put J-Freak. To further build upon John’s response; advance statistics like the ones I used to evaluate Jurrjens and Lowe are fairly new to me as well, but they are so much more fun that just ERA, wins, and losses. If that’s all we had, we’d be flabbergasted trying to figure out why Vazquez and JJ had almost the exact same record of wins and losses as Lowe, with ERAs two runs south of Lowe’s. We could guess it was luck, but with some of the advance statistics I’ve used we’re able to figure our way to the other side of luck and get some more concrete answers.
by gondeee on Nov 5, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tRA
Probably the best DIPS stat, at least in my opinion. It treats the different type of batted balls differently. For instance, if a pitcher gives up a ton of line drives, his tRA will be higher. Ground balls, lower. All of the other ones (FIP, xFIP, various other DIPS) treat every type of batted ball the same.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Nov 5, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly, Jurrjens’ 2009 tRA was the best of his career, nearly half a run below 2008. This despite the fact that his 2009 FIP went up.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 5, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
With all of the stats mentioned you left out the immeasurables.
He gained a TON of confidence from talking to Vasquez and building off of previous success. The reason he might not have another 2.60 ERA season in 2010 would be because that doeasn’t happen very often for ANY pitcher. I think that the maturity aspect was kind of dismissed because last year we learned how mature he was. He seemed to grow into himself this year and I see no reason why he can’t build off of last year and have another fantastic season in 2010.
by Fischerking on Nov 5, 2009 3:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Excellent points.
Performance at the highest levels of professional sports is, in my view, hugely influenced by intangible factors that are simply incapable of statistical analysis or justification.
Whether called confidence, maturity, mental toughness, desire, competitive drive, true grit, or whatever, the intangible immeasurables are a vital – but frequently overlooked – element of success.
And JJ seems to have a very large measure of such immeasurables.
by fandave on Nov 5, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
this is a semantics thing… but im a philosophy major and these things bother me..so excuse me
you cant have a very large measure of immeasureables
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 5, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was actually my point. Call IT whatever. But IT is definitely important and definitely can’t be measured, statistically or otherwise.
And as a philosophy major, it seems you wouldn’t necessarily take others’ blog posts quite so literally.
by fandave on Nov 5, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but i would take it literally a philosophy is predicated on the meaning of words
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 5, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Fischer
The stats are valid and fair points, but let’s not ignore the reality that everyone who watched Jurrjens all season long – he showed incredible poise, maturity, and he was unwavering even in the trickiest of situations. It seemed like every jam that he got into, he was able to work out of it with minimal, or no damage at all.
This review kind of makes Jurrjens seems like he lucked his way through the season–if you want an example of luck, look at 2008 Daisuke Matsuzaka. He threw a million pitches an inning, finished out the season under 170 IP, walked almost 100 guys, but was just the benefactor of huge run support, and won 18 games.
Jurrjens was nothing like that. First off, he should have had at least 4-5 more wins, but early on, it seemed like Jurrjens got the short straw when it came to run support, and suffered nonsensical losses and no-decisions. Come on, 7.2IP and 0R, and he can’t get a win versus the Nationals?
He may rely a lot on the defense, and BABIP is a “luck” defined stat to begin with, but let’s not down ourselves either; Jurrjens knows what he’s doing, and is pitching to contact, and for the most part, is doing an excellent job at it. And unlike Greg Maddux, Jurrjens has been very capable of turning up the heat, and hitting 95mph on the speedo, when he needs to. Jurrjens’ versatility and command of several pitches is a great arsenal, on top of his makeup.
I can think of about 3-4 games off the top of my head in the last two years, where Jurrjens actually looked so dominant and in control of the game, I actually dared to think “no-hitter.”
Jurrjens’ worst outing in terms of ERs was 5; which was during a blow out Braves win, where he was getting cute with the pitches; otherwise, he never once exceeded more than four runs allowed.
Also, one very promising fact is the fatigue that really hurt Jurrjens in 2008 was non-existent in 2009. Not only did he increase his IPs, but he finished out the season very strong, with his last eight starts all, for 7.0 or more innings.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 5, 2009 4:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I tend to think
that stats eventually do even out. However, in this case I think Jurrjens really didn’t show any extreme amount of luck. He pitched like an ace. As I said before, I think it really helped that he seemed more confident in using his slider this season. I think that adding that extra pitch really helped him keep hitters off balance. His command is impeccable, and should only get better with age. I like where he is headed, and I don’t see 2009 as a complete fluke at all.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 5, 2009 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His command is impeccable
Not really, with a BB/9 over 3.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 5, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what I saw was that he consistently pitched on the corners and just off the corners. if he didn’t get the calls, he didn’t give in and move his pitchs in, over the heart of the plate. he stayed instead stayed on the corners and thus gave up some walks.
walks of that type are not inconsistent with impeccable control.
by fandave on Nov 5, 2009 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, now you’re mixing up command and control. If he truly had impeccable command, he’d be able to “not give in” and still keep the walks down.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 6, 2009 12:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was my mistake
mixed up command and control
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 6, 2009 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.....
I think you just have to look at his situational stats from the last two years to prove your point that he has matured and could get himself out of tricky situations.
2008 Situational Stats – http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8091/situational;ylt=AqlYnEtjJiIm.DggeP_2VyFCLcF?year=2008&type=Pitching
2009 Situational Stats – http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8091/situational;ylt=AqlYnEtjJiIm.DggeP_2VyFCLcF?year=2009&type=Pitching
With the bases empty his WHIP and BAA were almost identical from 2008 to 2009, but when the situation got a little messy his stats drastically improved. If you look at 2009 you can see that when runners got on base he became a dominant pitcher, whereas in 2008 his WHIP and BAA increased when runners got into scoring position.
Now I tend to think that pitching over a 100 innings with runners on base is a pretty good sample size, so I don’t think it was luck at all. Luck is getting out of these situations a time or two, but when you consistently get out of jams and leave runners on base over 100 innings, then I think it is simply skill with little sprinklings of luck.
by whunt13 on Nov 5, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know, I think people may be overrating Jurrjens a bit. At roughly 6.3, Jurrjens’ K/9 rates are not special, and his 3+ BB/9 is average at best.
Perhaps it’s not “luck,” but many of his stats seemed primed for regression: 273 BABIP, 79.4 LOB, 6.1 HR/FB. Mix in the drop in Jurrjens’ GB rate in 2009 (from 51.5 to 42.9).
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 5, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Curious
Jurrjens’ K/9 rates are never going to be special as long as he’s going to be a contact pitcher. It’s like most of his Ks are of the looking variety (Can’t find anywhere to verify), usually on change-ups.
Now it seems miniscule, but for the sake of simplicity, I’m just going to round, but his slider usage percentage went up almost 3%, and his change-up usage percentage went down around 3%. Considering the change-up is what got Jurrjens so many ground balls, would you suppose that near 3% drop in his GB-inducer could be the reasoning for the drop in GB rate?
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 5, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One of the guys
that I have heard JJ compared to is Roy Oswalt. Oswalt generally outperforms his FIP as well as I recall. Maybe there is something to that comparison.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 6, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
Over his career, Oswalt’s ERA is only a tenth of a point off his FIP, well within the margin of error. There are some guys who have consistently outperformed their FIPs—Zito is one, IIRC, and Ted Lilly may be another. There’s some thought that this may be a unique characteristic of guys with killer CBs.
But Jurrjens barely under-performed his FIP in 2008, so he’s probably not one of those guys..
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 6, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I stand corrected
I recalled wrong.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 6, 2009 3:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No prob, it happens. I do think one of these days some team should study all the guys who consistently overperform their FIPs and see if they can find a common thread…and then teach that trick to all their pitchers.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 6, 2009 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That would be nice...
it would take a front office that actually cared about sabermetrics though. Braves don’t have one of those.
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 7, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure if the uptick is statistically significant, given the amount of noise in the PitchFx stats. I see a 2% uptick on the main player page in Fangraphs but no real change in the stats at the drilled-down PitchFx tab.
One of the positives about Jurrjens is that all three of his pitches have positive values—that’s rare.
I took a look at the movement data from PitchFx, to see if there was a change there (pitching more up in the zone), but nothing jumped out at me.
One concern I have is that even with the increased fly balls, JJ’s IF/F ratios remained constant, meaning he’s sacrificing GBs for flyballs to the outfield, which is pretty much the worst thing you can do. Although he did drop his LD percentages a bit as well, turning those into FBs.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 6, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Beast
The dude is a beast. No questions asked. It was not “luck”. Give him credit where credit is due.
Admired as a saint. Defined by my rank. Combined with my strength. My time and my length.
by ArmyITSpec on Nov 5, 2009 5:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You almost never find the next Glavine...
…and that is what we are asking about here. Very few pitchers consistently perform better than their peripherals over their career, the overwhelming majority revert to the norm for their peripherals.
Could JJ be the next Glavine—-the once in a generation pitcher who consistently out-pitches his peripherals? Sure. Not likely, but possible. Fortunately for the Braves, even a bit of reversion to the mean leaves JJ as a very good pitcher. I would be more than happy to see 200 IP, and an ERA between 3.4 and 3.6 next year. That is quite good. Anything better is just gravy.
by cavebird on Nov 5, 2009 5:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
that's more than good...
a consistent 200+ innings and ERA floating around or under 3.5 is in the top 10% of starters.
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 5, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh...
Gondeee, this is the 1st writeup you’ve done this off-season that I didn’t agree with and I think you didn’t give JJ nearly enough credit. I know his FIP was higher in 2009, but the great pitchers always get a little lucky. Most of the time JJ got out of a big situation, it was from his stellar pitching and not from a hitter making a mistake.
JJ was fantastic for us this season and improved a ton from 2008. There’s absolutely no reason to believe he won’t be just as fantastic in 2010. While I don’t think he’ll put up a crazy 2.60 ERA next season, I don’t think an ERA of 3.00 is out of the question. The kid can locate each and every one of his pitches and has tremendous poise for a 24 year old.
As long as Jair can avoid injury and continue his stellar pitching, the JJ/Hernandez for Renteria deal could be one of the most lopsided trades in the past 15 years or so.
"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"
by mvhsbball on Nov 5, 2009 7:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Gondeee, you are what I call a hater.
Or a party pooper. Lets just enjoy that sexy 2.6 ERA (Even if it was obtained by “luck”), okay?
MATT DIAZ IS THE F**K*NG MAN.
They made me change my signature...
by nick9314 on Nov 5, 2009 7:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just for sh*ts and giggles
One of these two guys is Jurrjens. Guess the other:
Player A: 6.36 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 2.01 K/BB, 273 BABIP, 79.4% LOB, 3.68 FIP, 4.06 tRA
Player B: 5.50 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 1.98 K/BB, 325 BABIP, 69.2% LOB, 3.83 FIP, 4.29 tRA
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 5, 2009 7:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Way to dig out a Pirates pitcher
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 5, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha Ha
Nice!
For those without Roy’s wisdom and brilliance, B was Paul Maholm.
If Albert played in the AFL, they’d have to rename it the AZ/NM Fall League, based on where his homers landed.
by Yakker on Nov 6, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Nov 6, 2009 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So
Do you follow all baseball players to the men’s room?
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
by royhobbs on Nov 6, 2009 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s just the state-of-the-art Pirates ST facility. It all looks like a men’s room.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it: https://www.createspace.com/3407939
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Nov 6, 2009 9:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
4th man out
If you look at him as the fourth starter (which he will be next year) then i think he is fantastic. Hudson Hanson and Vasquez will be ahead of him and I dont know who behind him. I wish it could be Lowe instead of Krapakame.
Wood
by rwwrodeo on Nov 5, 2009 8:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Kawakami
Out-pitched Lowe in many respects this season. What’s wrong with Kawakami?
by Andy Braves Fan on Nov 6, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Krapakame? You are a clever one, aren’t you? Too bad you’re ignorance of Kawakami is showing though.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Nov 6, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So in between a 3.68 era and a 2.60 era is 3.14. Thats fantastic, I’ll take it.
by Windu on Nov 5, 2009 10:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ace in the midst ?
JJ is one of the best young pitchers in the MLB today. To think we got him and Gorkys for Renteria, Man what a steal – Once again we get great pitching talent from the Tigers. Smoltz for D. Alexander ring a bell to anyone, LOL . Anyway JJ is the man and he is not even close to arb yet so Wren is not going to move him at all he is untouchable unless their is deal for a Ryan Braun type guy involved b/c I would make that deal. Braun for JJ I am sorry but I would have to sell high on JJ and get Braun and his affordable contract from the Brew Crew but that is the only guy I would give up JJ for, period.
Go Braves.
by Holty_Panthers_Fan on Nov 5, 2009 11:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
shut up, gondee
Jurrjens is our best pitcher by far, FIP, schmip, he’s way better than Hanson.
by nathan rothschild on Nov 6, 2009 10:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
wow!
Heyward,Hanson,and Shaffer r ready now!! Why do you think they havent signed the "right handed bat"?
by fatazfoot on Jan 7, 2009 8:59 PM EST
by Swo12bv on Nov 6, 2009 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
3.59 = 3.68
Swear to god. We’re talking 2% here!
It kills me when people talk about regress/progress when something changes so minimally in one direction, but people give it credence. I’m not saying anything about the diff in his ERA/FIP stats. It’s huge. But his FIP didn’t change. If you see one of our beloved three-significant-figure-stats change by less than or equal to .1 (for ERA/FIP) or .01-.02 (for BA/OBP/SLG), then it’s nothing. It’s non-legal currency in the country of Shit That Matters. Now if a bunch of his rates had gone up, and he posted this tiny (real tiny) increase in FIP, then maybe, maybe I say that’s the cause. But there’s no cause. .09 ain’t shit.
We’re talking about only 62 runs all year. If, over the course of the year, he leaves one slider over the plate ‘cause he’s thinking about how happy his dad is about him playing for the braves, and Adam Dunn smashes it out of the park, then we’re talking a 1.6% increase in ERA and ~FIP (HRs are fielding independent). From one run. All of his rates remain the same, though.
He pitched 3300 or so pitches this year and even a 2% change in how many fastballs he pitched YoY isn’t even really statistically significant (well, a bit), but a one run change in 62 runs is never going to be.
So there. I got angry about something stupid. Nobody’s even sure what it was. Just that: “Regardless of the glaring increase in his FIP” is absurd.
Err… go Hawks
by sgrapevine on Nov 6, 2009 10:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It’s non-legal currency in the country of Shit That Matters.
LOL…
People will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again.
by mvandonsel on Nov 6, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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